NCM just valued Havieron at 33p

[Hydrogen]

Here's why: And i'ts rather simple and LOGICAL

Essentially NCM have JUST valued this based on their PFS, which is $60m and is equivalent to 1.7p in GGP's SP per Million Oz in the PFS ;

You have two OPTIONS: if you base it on NCM's 4.2 moz it's $285/oz if you base it on GGPs 6.5 moz equiv it's $185/oz they have paid. ( Recall They paid $385/oz for brucejack. But it is producing... ie had the CAPEX already Spent as we approach production we approach that valuation )

Therefore :

$60m x 6 is our 30% of Hav = ie their point valuation of 100% of GGP = $360m = £300m sterling which 300m or 7.5p, for 4.2 moz equiv

However, in the same RNS, they specify the dimensions of the Eastern Breccia (which is conveniently omitted from the PFS).

so Using this RNS the Volume of EB is as follows:

500 x 200 x Pi = 314159 sqm x 250 ( at least) = 78.5m cubic metres: THUS 78.5 x 3.6 specific gravity = 282mt x (at let's say a conservative) 1.5 g/t = 423m grammes / 31 = 13.6 moz gold equivalent contained metal in the Eastern breccia

6.5 moz (main oval) plus this 13moz Eastern Breccia at 1.5g/t gives you Shaun Day's recently suggested 19.5moz

19.5moz x 1.7p = 33p minimum for Hav. Based on 4bn shares ( you would need to dilute 2.5% to allow for Pacific trends )

LOVE IT.... THIS IS ACTUALLY STUNNING NEWS !!!

The Drilling from the Eastern breccia easily supports this calculation - they categorically say 'over 250m' in depth and we have much higher grades than 1.5g/t in the EB drilling over long intervals )

[Grizzle1]

H&P Valuation Update

[WhiteTiger]

Wow been mulling over this much of the night, wondering what the MM will do with it this morning? Looking good thus fare

Hydro, a personal thank you, you once again have shed further light and understanding in your post.

All the best to all investors in this great, Greatland Gold Co.

W.T

P.S may the shorts be burned preferably alive, it's all they deserve.

[FuttBucker]

H2, I'm with you right up to "33p for hav". I'm not having a pop, I just don't understand what you mean.

It looks you divided the total value of hav by the total shares issued in GGP.

I thought the formula for GGP sp is approx "25% of hav plus (all other GGP assets)".

Agian, I'm not trying to start a fight, and I'd love to be at 33p, just not following the logic here yet!

[Hydrogen]

Hi FM

Sure - It's quite simple...

Via the 5% calculation NCM have now agreed / valued GGP's share of Hav at £300m sterling ( on a 30% of Hav basis or alternatively 100% of GGP basis ) .

But we know this was based on the date in time (drilling to December 2021) ie before the extent of the very big EB hits came out.

Regardless: £300m divided by 4.2bn shares is 7.1428p per share. FACT That's NCM's agreed call.

FACT : They assumed 4.2 moz based in their PFS so 7.14 / 4.2 = 1.7p in GGPs Sp 'per moz of gold in Havieron'.

They deliberately excluded the Eastern Breccia in their calculation. Bamps and I have shown ( and agreed ) there is around 13moz in the EB and 10moz recoverable... Thus 19.5moz total calculable (based on 1.5g/t grade in the EB and the dimensions NCM just provided in their RNS)

Further Shaun Day has recently confirmed there is about 20moz in Havieorn (taking into consideration grade zonation )

Therefore : 19.5 x 1.7p (per Moz) = 33p Minimum for what we know about as of today...

All Based on NCMs own agreed valuation of the 5%.

[FuttBucker]

OK, so am I right in paraphrasing that the 25% of Hav which we own should be contributing 33p to the share price of GGP (as per your maths) and that the 'all other GGP assets' part of the SP is in addition to this?

[Hydrogen]

Hi FB - yes the other JVs and assets would be valued in addition to this 1.7p per million oz

[FuttBucker]

That said, I'd definitely buy hav for 33p if offered

Thanks for helping me with the maths.

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

I guess which is why SD suggests that finding even half another havieron will make this such a tantalising prospect.

[OilMonkey]

Hydrogen, I don't think 33p for Hav is fair.

Shaun himself said the $60M selected by the independent valuer was not representative of the true market value of Havieron.

Due to the terms of the JVA Greatland has had to hugely downplay the value of Hav to put forward a figure on the 5% or risk having the valuer pick the rock bottom NCM figure.

Not hamstrung by this legacy 5% clause I highly doubt Shaun would entertain selling Hav at 33p.

[Hydrogen]

To be clear, I'm not saying it is Oil monkey.

I'm just observing, that IMO, if ~20moz is the number (as suggested by - not only the numerous posters on this BB - but also now our MD/CEO)...

Then NCM just undisputedly valued Havieron - As of December 21's progress at 33p...based on the existing information we have.

HOWEVER it should be noted :

Every day we get closer to the ore and production, in principle, the risk falls and that 33p number rises.

Every NEW drill we get confirming Crackle breccia can be converted to Cemented breccia, that number rises.

And every NEW intercept into the gap zone, or a new mineralised zones outside the MRE or current footprint, that number rises.

Basically, would you agree that logic would appear to dictate, that the 33p number is already well and truly history?

[Aiming2please]

Agreed hence why nobody is going anywhere one in all in

[ongold]

Thanks Hydrogen.
I do enjoy reading your posts. Highly enlightening.
Keep up the great work.
Gla
C.

[OilMonkey]

Hydro, definitely agree the 33p number has been passed in relation to our true value.

Let's just hope that we see a return to true value soon enough.

Nice to have your informative posts back too.

[Xeverton1]

Fantastic post Hydrogen…how you work these figures out is beyond my comprehension, but sounds fantastic and backed up with facts with figures that have been put out there.
Xe

[JungleBabbler]

Firstly I completely concur with H's calculations have read through them several times. If there is a fault then it's beyond my comprehension.

So 33p should be as H says yesterday base price. Everything else is on top.

Secondly SD and his team must know this as well so it will be "most interesting" to see some of them put their hands in their pockets and buy some shares which are currently trading at a 66% discount to this base price....

[Jarboy]

I just realised you were posting here @hydrogen. I greatly miss your commentary on telegram.

Love your work. Thank you for all the time and effort you put it here.