If you had to say...

[mushroomkid]

Ok...you can't sit on the fence here. What do you think the chances are that GGP will a) receive a bid for it's remaining share of Havieron and b) a takeover bid, within two years?

My guess is an 80% chance for (a) and 25% chance for (b). The first chance is higher of the two imo because it is neater and a carrot for the miner's dream held by Shaun, at least.

[Rotherby]

Two years is a short time in mining, but a long time for a lot of investors.

An offer for the 25% of Havieron must be high, I think most 25% partnerships do get bought out, so offer must be near 100%, will GGP find any offer acceptable, we have suffered the pain, the reward must be good for GGP to accept.
On this basis I think somewhere around the chance is around the 50% mark, t he offer would need to be good maybe with a royalty.

On a takeover of GGP, not so sure, it depends on the offer to Shaun, he wants his multi-million dollar company, he could in two years time have an income from Havieron, and a few more discoveries.

The more discoveries the more likely GGP will be swallowed up/merged, so 25% seems about right, the upside of this is that the value will be better than 10 on our best price to date, in which case the suiter will very likely be able to prise my share out of me. And all here will be ready to cash in, I think.

[KnockyParker]

Mush,

I would say that the chance of one of them happening is 100%. Which scenario would be best for us though is debatable.
If we sold our chunk of Havieron then what happens to the cash is unclear, we may get a special divi and the rest goes in to further exploration of our other assets which could be very risky. I would prefer a complete buyout of GGP, although I think that this should have happened, or at least be underway by now whilst the share price is low.
I just can't see Newcrest wanting a 25% junior partner.

Best
Knocky

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

They already have one in Imperial Metals

[CanisLycaon]

(a) 100%
(b) 20%

[speedymeadie]

Hi Mush. I do not think SB will buy the remaining 25/30% of HAV. If the 5% for $60mill is taken up it means Newcrest have done a blinding deal for 75% stake in Hav. The remaining 25% will not be available at such a discount and SB will want a better ROI. The notion that SB will want to buy out the whole of GGP is a non starter, too many unknowns. ATB Speedy

[zoros]

(a) 90%
(b) If you mean take over bid for GGP: 0%. For Hav in 2 years: 50%
Z

[Mremc2]

Newcrest didn't buy GGP when it was at 2p - how ridiculous would they look to their shareholders buying the company now for £bns!! Maybe the shorting was to get the price down to 4p or below for a bid but if so such a ploy has failed (but it is perplexing that shorting is continuing). The experts say that valuable minimg explorers nearly always get gobble up - okay £1.44p will do me just fine.

[mushroomkid]

Very interesting replies so far. Havieron...that's the very bright jewel in the crown. A separate entity within the GGP portfolio that, thus far, seems unbeatable. But what if we get another strike elsewhere? All bets are then off. Fascinating stuff.

[JerryS]

Tough one mushy. I think its likely they will make a proposal just after the FS as easier to get board approval then. Can’t see why they would want the exploration assets as they are no good at exploration. They might want to include anything where there is an exploration hit, but wouldn’t want to pay much for it.
So 90% and maybe 25%, but that doesn’t mean that either will be accepted. So far we know that NC don’t rate Ggp, think they can get it cheap and yet have received a pretty big smack in the chops from Shaun. I reckon Shaun can defend anything under 35p and comes at less than 40% premium to market price (not vwap).

[Jiffy]

Re: ‘Ok...you can't sit on the fence here. What do you think the chances are that GGP will a) receive a bid for it's remaining share of Havieron and b) a takeover bid, within two years?

My thoughts, on a)…It would have to be a very, very, enticing offer indeed IMHO, simply because SD would not then be able to grow GGP into a multi-billion $ company without the backing of a year on year increasing cash flow.

Cash is King in this business, because a guaranteed source of cash flow then supports debt from banking finance in order to support further exploration etc, that’s the way I view it, do not want to see further placings, and I also think, SD doesn’t want that either!

What would a special dividend have to be in order for acceptance by the majority of shareholders? I do seem to recall in one of the many SD interviews etc that Shaun would allow a vote in this scenario...(correct me if I am wrong on that score)

As for b) I cannot see it happening unless we were to find another Elephant or even half of one, on one, of our own 100% owned tenemants.

So in conclusion I’ll go for a finger in the air approach :O) a) 60% and b) 20%

[jecsggp]

I'm not sure Newcrest can afford to buy a company that has 25% share on one of its biggest mine assets - and gets more expensive each time Newcrest put in another drill hole. I'd have thought it would have put in a bid already or at least as soon as the decision to mine is set in stone (as they say).

[College Yard]

IMO Newcrest don't need to buy the whole company and SD wants to build Greatland into a Northern Star mark 2. A deal for Havieron based on a life-of-mine royalty would suit both parties.

[Acechaser]

a - 100 b -0

[Josh_shep]

This has been worrying me an awful lot recently.

I cannot see why NCM would plan to hand over 25% of profits from an incredible asset for the life of mine. I don’t believe we’d be too expensive either. I’ve looked through Willem Middlekoops discovery fund as he has had an awful lot of buyouts. “Premiums” range from 20-80%. Say we got a 100% premium at current prices, thats buying us for just over £1b for our 25% share, long term, that’s incredible ROI for NCM. I’d be devastated if anything like that did get voted through.

The problem here is we’ve seen 37p come and go so most automatically think the bid has to be higher than that for it to be accepted or put to us. The board has to look at todays price and not historically to deem whether it’s going to put to shareholders. A 60-100% bid, imo, will be put to shareholders to vote on.

Big fat, F off from me and my votes!

[Bradfordonian]

For what it's worth, as a 3+ year investor at significantly higher average to current SP, I agree with those that mention SD has huge ambitions here for GGP and is not in it to sell it. He was a big part of Northern Star's meteoric rise and knows deep in his bones that GGP has, arguably, an excellent chance of becoming even bigger than Northern Star. If either or both EG and Scallywag hit the bullseye, he will become a legend in his own lunchtime....I think this drives Shaun, he's determined to be the leader of a multi-mining giant.

[Hydrogen]

Hey Mushroom ...

Some fascinating responses. For me it's a binary call: will or won't NCM take GGP out...?

Firstly, there is just no way Shaun would support the sale of Havieron just as an Asset, in my humble opinion.

He would probably resign from GGP if that were to happen IMO. Shaun has made his ambitions and vision crystal clear. He wants to transform GGP into a mid-tier, fast growing, multi billion dollar mining company ... Havieron is the prefect launch asset for that.

You can see his career trajectory... 5-7 years running GGP and Shaun will no doubt be in the running for the top RIO or BHP job..
(Better watch out Sandeep, screw up again, and you may get another flying round house SD kick in the chops!)

So that brings us to a 100% take over bid for GGP.

I believe an attempt will be made (and sooner than most think). But the timing has become very sensitive ... next few weeks/months, or post DFS..?

However, that said, there is clear and newly demonstrable problem: Given the vision, the resolve, and thorough understanding by the majority Pis (circa 80% vote holding remember! ) of the Havieron asset - via a huge number of PI connecting across forums like this (thanks Again Liam!!) - I think it could be a truly epic T/O battle.

And a battle that NCM may not be able to win.

Make no mistake, I think circumstantial evidence suggests there is now a high probability that stage 1 of that battle was just categorically lost by NCM.

Arguably, that strategy was to smash GGP's SP down to 5/6p with a skinny PFS (recall the recent SP 'calls' of our friends Gimplode and Toothless Bruce?) with a severely undercut 5% valuation... and then hit 'dumbfounded holders' with an apparently "generous and 'reasonable' , but lowball offer of 16-18-20p (full sarcasm mode initiated!! )

But that shitty ship has sailed, the moment SD mentioned 20 moz (the key line being: "taking into account grade zonation" .

Very strategic...!

Many on here, myself included, have predicted 20moz (plus). Prior to the SD comment, some, probably many, of our more conservative PI holders may have thought, "nah... Hav is being ramped, it's possibly 8moz, maybe 10moz tops" ... ?

For the record I stand at 25moz and have for over a year.

BUT Now it's different. Now we have a paradigm shift. Now we have something else...

Reading between the Lines: Maybe - NCM are in a pickle about what to do next...? A pickle that gets more potent with every passing new drill hole... As Havieron gets bigger and bigger and bigger.

For this reason, I suspect, there is possibility of an audacious NCM takeover attempt in the coming months... (and certainly I suspect inside 2022). I think that's what they were planning...

But the question is - has this plan changed? Has SD forced a change in strategy - afterall he was hand picked for the role by Callum who retains a around 3% stake (via SVE and his large private holding).

Pitted against this are real risks of an NCM take-over failure. How embarrassing would that be?
NCM are having a pretty bumpy time, themselves... Their SP is at 5 year lows, their production is down and there are problems at Cadia.
Can they get their own shareholders, who want dividends to stomach another big acquisition?
How can they 'not overpay for an asset' Sandeep's openly stated ambition, in conversation, about Havieron
....when PIs own circa 80% and they now fully understand the asset...?
How quickly do they act...? if the gold price moves sharply north from the $1700-1800 zone ?

Whatever Fraser Macquordale reveals in the early hours of Monday morning at Diggers and Dealers will likely speak to their next move.

Ie Go 'all out on singing the size of Havieron' and/or reveal the nickel or something new then I'm tempted to conclude: no immediate bid.
But if its 'tone it down' and 'keep it conservative'.... then most probably, the bid attempt is incoming and soon and i will adjust my view.

So to surmise, I think a full takeover attempt is still highly probable, potentially very quickly. However the risk of failure has become crystal clear to NCM... They 'may' have just tested us: they must know they cannot break the resolve of PIs and LTHs with low, silly, artificially suppressed prices at least. In fact Bloomberg Terminal register proves a lot of Large 10m+ size LTH of GGP have increased their position sizes, several significantly.

That speaks to the quality of the proposition. (See attached image that shows BT changes to the register over the past year March 21 to March 22).

And for this reason, they may just ditch the idea.

Prior to the 5% outcome, I was 90-10 in favour of a GGP Takeover in 2022... Today, I'm personally 70:30 in favour of a incoming bid... But I ythhink the evidence suggests they have to act fast because the longer they leave it the more Hav grows and the greater chance of another major GGP strike increases.

Time has changed things:

If the outstanding, and frankly highly disproportionate 83m+ short is a genuine short punt ... just a genuine run of the mill short, then IMO we're probably heading to 18-20p zone when they close... ( i just love the way that comment gets right up the nose of Toothless Bruce and our fav - Gimplode...! )

But if such chancers really are NCM Proxies... (And I'm not certain either way - they may just represent spotty entitled publicly schooled spivs, going after PIs). But if not... then a quick NCM bid, is IMO, the more likely outcome. Further, I have argued, NCM have already offered a baseline valuation for GGP's 25% at c33p based on 20moz @ 1.7p per Moz as agreed in the 5% deal.

IMO A bid is not a situation to be 'feared' by PIS its actually quite exciting.

It's a full NCM 'cards on the table' moment... And perhaps one to celebrate? : Because Shaun has shown he has shareholders' backs (proven by the publication of his 'in house' 6.5Moz MRE2). And, thus, as c80% majority owners of GGP, WE the 'GGP people' are essentially, in total, unequivocal control... of this full CARDS on the TABLE moment.

A fact not lost on Sprott, nor Cannacord, in both their recent broker notes, also categorically observing the strong situation of PIs.

Cannacord: "It appears that acquisition of the 25% of Havieron could become a priority for NCM in our view. We see two clear obstacles for NCM in achieving this objective. 1) the delta between GGP's market cap and our estimated value for the project is very high, we would expect it would take an offer at an exceptionally high premium to GGPs 10p share price to achieve board support and 2) the dispersed nature of GGPs share register which includes a strong retail presence means that NCM may encounter difficulties in building a pre-bid stake.

Sprott " With the buy-down now behind them, we think [under-playing the drilling in new areas]..... would only make sense if M&A was on NCM’s agenda".

Good luck holders ... It's about to get very very interesting.

[ManFromUruguay]

Some great opinions and Hydro that is some overview fella!
My humble opinion is that I believe NCM are happy with 75% and as we are 18 months or so to production there is no panic at NCM. It will cost more than SB or their shareholders can currently stomach and as they have an already high potential ROI on 75% (assuming they take the 5%) they will not bid.
As an add on point I would actually like them to bid unsuccessfully as that would send a rocket up the SP nearer to current fair value
GLA MFU

[DipSard]

Definitely very interesting times now that we’ve had the 5% option exercise play out and despite the restrictions imposed through the JVA on the valuations such as conservative commodity prices and other unstated details the team still managed to achieve $60m, whether it was Newcrest’s valuation or GGP’s that was selected by the independent 3rd party is up to conjecture of course, but given what Newcrest were trying to set as the base - it was a definite win for us - as has been Shaun cutting the deal with Pacific Trends - things finally seem to be going our way outside the constantly good results from drilling

Do we see Newcrest confirm this purchase by end of Aug (perhaps 19 Aug in conjunction with their FY Results?) or elect to forgo 5%, which seems unlikely IMO given the long term ROI Newcrest would achieve with another 5%.

And if they don’t, is it due to shareholder discontent being so high that they can’t even gain approval over spending $60m OR because they have other plans such as a bid for the remainder of Havieron or even a takeover attempt?

IMO if they do purchase the 5%, I currently feel it’s a 40% probability they will make a bid for the remainder of Hav with DFS in hand to help sway shareholders and justify ROI, I might decrease the odds if evidence of a more aligned partnership becomes apparent quickly.

If they don’t elect to purchase the 5%, I think it’s down to 25% odds as $60m seems a very decent price from their perspective and gives them more overall control of Havieron with a larger say in operational and strategical decisions going to 75/25 from 70/30 ownership.

IMO - if they can’t approve a spend of $60m with such a compelling ROI…….. surely not much chance for now of an offer for the remainder of Hav, their BOD’s hands must really be shackled by shareholders expectations on div’s and more controlled growth expenditure me thinks.

How it plays out I think is Newcrest go ahead and purchase the 5% and we’ll likely NOT see a bid before production if they don’t put in an offer very soon after publishing the DFS as once published, Shaun is then able to complete Funding our share of development costs, making it even harder for them as we run into 2023……so 40% probability runs down to 25% or lower IMO.

BUT I could see an offer for the remainder of Havieron a few years into production, where perhaps it might make sense for us to part with our stake in Havieron IF we have a 100% owned tenement we have made a compelling discovery within and want to develop to production without a partner.

Surely then we might see the sense of a large lump sum, perhaps some royalty thrown in etc. to help us develop for instance Ernest Giles.

With Scallywag the idea seems to be to pull it into the Havieron JV and get us better all around terms from what i think Shaun has been stating/hinting at in his interviews - so more likely EG or one of the other tenements outside the Paterson where Telfer isn’t a factor.

[RationalAssessor]

Hydro/Dip

Many thanks to each of you for your earlier posts, both of which presented compelling arguments for your views on the chances of a takeover.
I am closer to Dip's view on the percentages but that is not because of the arguments presented but simply my own gut feel of the situation. I am aware that both of you are pretty well researched in all things Greatland.

Having said that, I am particularly interested in the mechansims of takeovers and have opened a copy of the takeover code (433 pages).

https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/wp- ... =14Jul2022

Have certainly not read the full document but I believe that the broad process would be as follows:

1. NCM present bid to GGP BoD
2. BoD consider the bid and determine whether to recommend it - for the vote to be given to shareholders.
3. Shareholders are requested to vote
4. If 50% of shares in issue accept, then the offer is accepted

I'd be grateful for any corrections/additions to this by those here who are better informed.

What I did find in the takeover code was that there are quite a few conditions associated with "borrowed" shares and also potential limitations on the offering company purchasing shares in the target company while in possession of inside information.

Again, I would be grateful if anyone here with good knowledge of the process and the "rules" to explain the limitation as if I were a five year old.as the code is not the easiest read.

Not wanting to hijack Mushroom's thread so any answers to my questions might be better addressed by starting a new thread.

ATB RA