Ortex, whats the score?

[Costa]

Ortex data collected on Thursday 25th August. (Thanks JC)

47.57m shares on loan, -49.75m

Images below

So, be interested to hear what others think about this, and when... if reduction amount of shares (49.72) were bought back? Today, as part of the trading day, if so where? Or part of the placing? Or some other way? Or perhaps there is something else?

This is not without precedent and has happened before, look closely at the bottom graph.

[Ivan66]

I anticipated some big after hours trades today, and there wasn't. As you allude too, I think there has been some creativity with numbers today.

Something I picked up earlier, did anyone else note the 4.9m sell at 08:11:15 am ? It first popped up on LSE trades at about 09:48am , but then when I looked through the trades again from page 1 it was still there at 948am , but also appeared at 1518. Exact same amount at exactly the same time.

Am I seeing two separate trades excuted at exactly the same time, for the exact same value, or am I seeing MM Cow Poop ?

[Francis]

The Ortex data doesn’t show that any short positions have been bought back (they are unchanged at 20.26m) only that 49.75m shares formerly out on loan have been successfully recalled by their lender(s).

[mushroomkid]

What in God's name were they doing or intending to do with these borrowed shares??

Is it really a case of them deciding they dont need them for more shorting now so they simply paid a few quid interest and handed them back??

[_J_C_]

The Ortex data doesn’t show that any short positions have been bought back (they are unchanged at 20.26m) only that 49.75m shares formerly out on loan have been successfully recalled by their lender(s).

The reported short position hasn’t changed. On the Ortex thread, Ortex have acknowledged there was an error with their reporting of the short position. We do however have data straight from FCA (updated daily) which shows 0.5% reported short. https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data ... pdate.xlsx

JPMAM do not need to report further unless they go to 0.6% or fall below reporting threshold (threshold is 0.5%).

The issue with Ortex is accuracy and also we did not know deployment rate of shares on loan i.e. how many of the borrowed shares had been sold, and required buying back to return to owner.

I am struggling to see how they were sitting on almost 50m undeployed shares to return in one day, with volume and SP not correlating to such a move; I appreciate this points to the shares being borrowed, not deployed and therefore able to be returned to the owner, but I am not convinced.

More work to be done, data review to be completed and will be interesting to see more data over the coming days.

[_J_C_]

What in God's name were they doing or intending to do with these borrowed shares??

Is it really a case of them deciding they dont need them for more shorting now so they simply paid a few quid interest and handed them back??

Worth noting that some lenders require the value of the borrowed shares +2% as a “deposit” and are charged a fee rate. If 50m shares had been borrowed to “sit-on”, significant cash / collateral required.

E.g VanEck:

[Francis]

…
I am struggling to see how they were sitting on almost 50m undeployed shares to return in one day, with volume and SP not correlating to such a move; I appreciate this points to the shares being borrowed, not deployed and therefore able to be returned to the owner, but I am not convinced.
…

Who are “they”?

Why should returning lent shares impact volume or SP? Stock lending is not part of price-formation.

[_J_C_]

…
I am struggling to see how they were sitting on almost 50m undeployed shares to return in one day, with volume and SP not correlating to such a move; I appreciate this points to the shares being borrowed, not deployed and therefore able to be returned to the owner, but I am not convinced.
…

Who are “they”?

Why should returning lent shares impact volume or SP? Stock lending is not part of price-formation.

I do not know, who borrowed the shares?

I am well aware that borrowed shares do not affect SP whilst undeployed; I was stating (poorly) that 50m shares were returned yesterday and yesterday’s volume or SP did not reflect 50m shares being bought in order to return to lender. Ergo, it would appear the 50m weren’t deployed.

[_J_C_]

Latest data here:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=2726#p2726


Let’s see what more data this week brings.

Ps reminder that Ortex is USA based and this data will be updated from close of business on Friday 26th August, excluding any reporting lags etc.

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

So the position has not changed...

BR

[_J_C_]

So the position has not changed...

BR

Prior to major decrease, data collected 24th August was 97.32m, so nett increase of 2.25m.

The 99.57m is a new all time high.

[mushroomkid]

How odd. A glitch? A change of heart? I don't think the shares were deployed last week into the market so who knows?

[Johnnyx]

Any updates on short positions ? anyone with Ortex access?

Kind regards

[Nitram64]

It's in one of the "sticky threads" - https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=164

[Masham Ale]

How many days lag do you think there is with Ortex?

[Hydrogen]

Varies - we think 2- 5 depending on the Market Participant.

[zoros]

Copied the reduction in short position(s).
I have been reading across all boards and for some considerable time now, that if and when the shorters withdraw from trading and the short position diminishes - then the SP will rise as these positions are closed and the shares 'bought back'.
There have been some very very vocal individuals proclaiming this situation.
So IF (if) this figure of 106m down to 31m (today) is continuing evidence of the short position closing, why are we not seeing the SP rise ?
Any 'experts' out there?
Z

[_J_C_]

Copied the reduction in short position(s).
I have been reading across all boards and for some considerable time now, that if and when the shorters withdraw from trading and the short position diminishes - then the SP will rise as these positions are closed and the shares 'bought back'.
There have been some very very vocal individuals proclaiming this situation.
So IF (if) this figure of 106m down to 31m (today) is continuing evidence of the short position closing, why are we not seeing the SP rise ?
Any 'experts' out there?
Z

What has the reported short position been?

How many of the large trades from last Friday were accounted for by GDXJ?

Has the GDXJ rebalance implementation been used previously as an opportunity by some to execute large trades?

How many of the shares on loan were deployed?

Unless you have answers to all of the above, particularly regarding deployment rates of shares on loan, you will not know for sure how many shares need to be bought back.

[Costa]

Zoros.

You are (I think) conflating two numbers and drawing conclusions (i think) on not understanding what you are seeing and the fact that Ortex is one source.

Shares available for loan is not shares on loan. Think of it this way. If that number decreases (shares available) it could be because they have been taken, fees paid and deployed into the market.

It could also mean, that the holder of those shares (the lender if you will) has decided they do not want to lend them. Again, in this instance it does not represent the closing of the short.

CJ, the only thing you continually prove is either you suffer with memory loss... or that you are just another idiot who simply does not know what they are posting about.

[zoros]

Afternoon Costa.
So what are the signs that these 100m+ shares are closing then?
How does the ;punter' know that the short positions have closed?
Down from 105m to 31m on ortex, what 'exactly' is this telling us.
Best
Z