Notes from AIM ON AIR Interview with Don Durrett - 18 OCT 2023

[DipSard]

Notes from AIM ON AIR Interview with Don Durrett - 18 OCT 2023

Interview Link:
https://youtu.be/-5Je0nmFDFo?si=GSyY1L90hu_Us5_E

GGP RNS’s:
https://greatlandgold.com/investors/regulatory-news/

Today’s guest Don Durrett joins Liam to talk about, Greatland, Havieron, and Gold. Owner of www.goldstockdata.com. Author of How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks (which is available on Amazon).

Expert on gold and silver mining stocks. A frequent guest on investment podcasts, with a large following on Twitter. Don Durrett is at the front of sharing information on gold and silver miners along with its macro data that has an impact on it. Follow Don here: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett

* Hello and welcome to this episode of Brew with Bottle on GGPHelp TV my name is Liam and I'm your host for the show today, today's guest is owner of www.goldstockdata.com, author of ‘How to invest in gold and silver’, a complete guide with focus on mining stocks which is available on Amazon, he's an expert on gold and silver mining stocks and a frequent guest on investment podcasts with a large following on Twitter around about 35,000 followers. Don Durrett is at the front of sharing information on gold and silver miners along with its macro data that has an impact on it. Welcome to the show Don!
- hey thanks for having me on Liam

* Not a problem at all I'm really looking forward to our conversation today I always like to start with an easy ice breaker to start a chat with a guest and as you're listed as living in Nevada I wondered if you had a particular part of Vegas that you like to frequent or if there was something you would want to see or do but not yet the chance to do?
- that's an interesting question, I actually don't like to go down to the strip it's a place I actually avoid so it's kind of crazy you live in Las Vegas and you don't want to go to the strip but I haven't been to like the Raider Stadium, I wouldn't mind going to going there I think it's called The Allegiant Stadium, also they just put The Sphere in. so to go there, I'm actually thinking of going there very soon, they're having a movie there where you can go and experience the sphere for kind of a low cost, so those are kind of two things
- they also have a racetrack there's kind of a lot of things they have a racetrack here where you can actually go and spend money and like drive you know a Lamborghini around a race track, those are kind of the three things I haven't done that I wouldn't mind doing

* That's awesome, before we dig into your thoughts on Greatland I wondered if you could start at the beginning for our listeners who are not maybe so familiar with yourself, could you give us a brief overview on your past please?
- sure so I worked in IT for 20 years and I retired from Chevron and when I retired from Chevron I started doing this website fulltime and I was doing both for a long time, it was really difficult working full-time and then also the website was actually almost a full-time job as well
- so, I started do that in 2012 so I did that for about 5 years so it was tough and then I switched over and I do this fulltime now
- so, I got into mining stocks because I was always kind of a hard money person, I always I didn't believe that the US economy was sound and I just you know I just believe that you can't use debt to maintain our standard of living which is what we've been doing really since the 1980s
- we've supplemented our economic growth by expanding debt so we've expanded debt faster than GDP and now it's gotten to the point where're pushing on a string where it takes several trillion dollars just to generate 1% of GDP
- and I've seen this coming it's taken a lot longer than I thought, I didn't think that we could print as much money as we printed, I knew we were basically kind of behind the 8 ball where we were dependent on debt
- the thing that surprised me was the ability to expand debt and the markets would let us get away with it but I think that my thesis that eventually it's going to become a problem is we're there
- I actually think we have five months left, I say we're hitting a wall… US economy is hitting a wall and once this recession starts and I think it will start in the next one to five months, once it starts I don't think the US economy will restart now a lot of people think that's hyperbole it's like come on Don so just a business cycle we just have a recession and then we'll restart it and start growing again
- but I don't think it's going to be that easy I think the reason why is because the US debt GDP is 120% now, it's going to go up we're spending about 18% annually increased debt and it's just out of control and so we're going to need to… once this recession starts it's probably going to need at least $5 trillion USD to attempt to restart it at least and so that money I think is going to kind of is going to break the system if you will
- and so that's when that happens… I got into gold and silver mining stocks because I believed that when this debt bubble pops, money from stocks and bonds will find it find their way to Gold because gold is the one thing that has no counterparty risk so you have now… we have over hundred trillion USD in stocks over1 trillion USD in bonds so all you need is about 2 or 3% of that money to want to buy gold and gold will go to $3,000 which is my target
- I invest in this because I believe the debt bubble is going to pop in the US and it'll probably pop globally but I think it'll pop in the US first, not everybody believes… agrees with me at that but that's my expectation

* That's fair enough, thank you, so you started the website Golddatastock.com, did that start with a couple of companies or did you really expect it was going to grow to as big as it did, you have a vision with that?
- yeah I did so, I started investing in juniors in 2004 and I couldn't find any data and there was no websites, it was really difficult to find leads it's like what gold miners are out there what silver miners are out there what data can I find it was impossible
- so I had to learn it on my own and with a lack of data so the first thing I couldn't find was data on the internet the second thing I couldn't find was any books there were no books that explained how to do this and so I had to learn on my own but I'm a writer I've been writing since 1990
- so as soon as I learned how to invest in gold and silver I wrote my book so I think I started writing my book around 2009 2010 I think the first version of my book came out in 2010 and then after I wrote my book it was like okay there's nobody writing any book nobody created any website so I created the website so they were both done out of need and they weren't they weren't done out of trying to make money they were done to help people to find data
- first you know a book and then the website, so it's called Goldstockdata originally was called goldsilverdata but my partner who does the website he said that we need to get stock in the name so when people do searches they'll find it
- I personally I would have stayed with goldsilverdata myself, so change the name around I don't know 2015 or 16 or 17 but the vision was always to get the website big enough that it was comprehensive that you know if you wanted to find Gold stock or silver so now we're at up to 860 names and one time we were almost to 900 but this last you know two year I think we're three years now correction it shrunk so now we're down to about 860 865
- I think it'll grow back to 900 but I don't add companies that have less than 10 million market cap and there there's about 50 more so that I have in my list so we it would probably be about 950 if I added every all the companies I know I'm aware of

* No that's grand, mightily impressive so when you start to look at these miners what are the points of interest for you and your own analysis?
- yeah so I from the very beginning the reason why I got into this is because I believe that in our lifetime we will see basically this debt bubble pop and the US economy have a major problem so if that happens then Gold's going to outpace any in the cost, gold would just rock it higher in a short period of time and cost won't appreciate with it
- now actually haven't found I've been doing this for over 10 years now with my website and I've never found another analyst that analyses like I do so my thesis is that gold and silver are going to rocket really really quickly and so I can I can use estimates of future free cash flow and I can use estimates of future cost and then I can compare that, I can put a multiple on that free cash flow we can talk about it with Greatland, I can put a multiple on the free cash flow and then I can compare it to the current market cap and I can estimate what that company's going to be worth at say $2,500 gold or $3,000 gold
- now I value companies at $3,000 gold, most people think that's insanity but I believe it's going to happen so if my belief is that we're going to $3,000 gold then why shouldn't I value companies at $3,000 gold that's so I'm valuing greatly at $3.4 billion at $3,000 gold and I I'll we can go into why I do that and so I'm all about analysing a company where it's at today you know and if is it going to make so I don't care about the next 12 months the next 12 months to me is meaningless the only thing the next 12 months is the company going to survive the next 12 months
- but I'm looking out 2, 3, 4 all the way out to 5 years and I will go farther with Greatland I actually go beyond that I go 5,6,7 I don't really like to go 5,6,7 but with companies that are this early in the cycle you have to and so I have a few companies that I go 5,6,7
- ideally I like a company to hit my valuation my target within three years that's kind of my ideal but sometimes you got to go longer yeah but it's for me it's all about current valuation versus future valuation and compare the two see if the company has big Alpha and see what the risk reward is, you know what is the potential of the company hitting your Target and that's how I do it

* Okay that's grand but with 865 companies listed how do you stay on top of that I mean and this is probably what sets the difference between a sophisticated and unsophisticated investor, we have more than enough information to dive into and explore and understand on Greatland but you do it 865 times right?
- so first of all companies make in the mining industry they make very slow progress it takes a long time to build a mine and so the progress usually you get very little from quarter to quarter unless it's a producer
- so if it's a producer you get their financials on a quarterly basis and I get that news so I'm I get a news flow so every day I get the news flow and I check to see you know which companies you know reported and so when companies are reporting their financials it's kind of busy for me
- so I'm basically plugging those in you know they changed if they went up check to see what they're doing so the quarterly financial is the hardest part to kind of maintain because it's changing every quarter but most companies you know exploration companies you know that you know they'll have a drill program one drill program two drill programs a year, very slow methodical progress and then if you're a developer again you know it's very slow they don't make a lot of progress
- but I analyse every company once a year I have somebody that helps me to some of the smaller companies smaller caps so that I can do you know 50 60 a month, you know I do usually do one or two day I try to do 50 a month and then I have some help to fill that in so and I'm monitoring I'm monitoring the companies to see if anything significant has happened
- but usually from year to year there isn't a lot of change a significant change if you will and so if a company has a significant change then I'll analyse it but normally I just analyse a company once a year

* That makes sense thank you and I'm about to go on a bit of a monologue so apologies to you and everybody else who's tuned in today but I want to set the scene for my next question, when a few of the guys and I started to converse with you and thank you for your insight and conversation by the way, we do really appreciate it greatly, was very much a stock that was low down on your watch list if I remember rightly?

I'll be honest and say I was at sometimes somewhat critical to your approach and perhaps somewhat unfair with my criticism, I really know very little about investing and holding no office to say such things to an industry professional like yourself but I'm overly passionate about Greatland so I do apologize for that which is partly why I wanted to get you on the show today, because reading through your Twitter feed you've been nothing short of patient and polite to anyone that questions you.

So on behalf of everybody that you've educated I genuinely thank you now when some of the shareholders and by that I can only really speak for myself see Greatland, we see a company there's so much growth potential to become a multiple mine this is far too early and I've not had enough coffee we see a company that has so much growth potential to become a multiple mine with a multi-billion valuation and we're blinkered on some of the more nuanced points of investing in gold companies, so and I was looking at your April 11th tweet on the too pricey to buy list.

What to someone whose years of Industry experience and know how.. what makes a stock slip 70% over the last 18 months with fundamentals as strong as Greatland still too pricey to buy?
- so basically that's the reason why I bought it is because it finally did hit a valuation that I thought was interesting, so before it dropped 70% the issue for me was again comparing… it's currently valued at $376 million and it's dropped, it's dropped so it was much higher than that right
- so I had it valued previously because it take.. the one thing about this stock it had it for me it had a lot of issues so issue number one was this is was a exploration company so changing their Focus changing you know pivoting into development where they call themselves a mining company that wants to be a multi mine producer that's a big change and most of their company their board and their management team they have a lot of accountants they have a lot of lawyers they don't have a lot of mine builders, they don't have a lot of operators so they're it's hard to build mines it's hard to operate mines and so switching that DNA is not easy so that for me was you know a real big red flag
- and then the next one is the valuation so I had them I was valuing them before as 150,000 ounce a year producer so at 150,000 ounce producer even at $3,000 gold it still didn't have enough juice, I you know I want something that's looks like a solid five bagger to me and this one didn't have it, it was below that that that cut off I can find a lot companies that have better risk reward profiles than previously before Greatland dropped in value, but this year they what's happened a lot of times in these development stories is they make progress, the actual project makes progress and the project starts to look better and it starts to look a little bit juicer
- now for instance Greatland, a couple things happened that made it more interesting, number one I really like the profile of the mine itself it looks like a mine that's kind of easy to mine I mean it's just basically straight down I mean this thing is not going to be that difficult to mine so it's they're not going to have problems the grade is good
- it's going to be you know they have an AISC of $650, I don't think it's going to slip significantly it will slip but not significantly because you know this mine like I said it looks pretty it looks pretty solid so that that was always a positive but one of the negatives for me was you know what is the growth profile now
- I was thought that it had potential to grow and now they've been drilling significantly so have 80,000m to add to the resource so I've expanded their production from 150,000 ounces a year to 200,000 ounces so when I give them 200,000 ounces a year and I go at $3,000 gold I'm using you know you know I think I'm using $1,300 AISC so that's $1,200 an ounce I mean it's excuse me $1,700 an ounce in margin
- that's a lot of margin right so when you add that in I have free cash flow of $340 million, if at 1,300 so now again their ASIC is 650 so I'm doubling that to as a break even which I think is they should be there they should be somewhere between 12 and 1500 it's hard to predict you know what inflation is going to do so I'm using 1300 but $1,200 is a really good margin, so that interests me right I love the high margins and then if they do hit if they do get to 200,000 now they're not going to get the 200,000 out the gate
- but I'm thinking you know maybe it only takes 18 months to get up to 200,000 we'll see how long it takes them but I do think they will as soon as they get into production I think they're going to start thinking about growing expanding production I really do I because I think the goal is going to be there and the payback is going to be fairly quick with those kind of margins
- so at 340 million so I'm using a I'm using a multiple of 10 I believe that the multiples are going to be very very high for Australian companies once you get to $3,000 gold a lot of people don't agree with me but I think that because Australia is a good location I think when once we get above $2,500 gold I think that you're going to see a big flip in sentiment where people want to own these mining stocks and so when the sentiment improves the multiples will improve so I'm using 10 multiple
- and I think the multiple for Greatland is going to be 15 to 20 so I'm actually being conservative here, so at a 10 multiple it prints as an 800% return an eight bagger so that 8 bagger gets my interest and I'm like okay that's that works now interestingly right now I can find 10 Baggers all over the place
- so normally I might pass, interestingly I might pass on an eight bagger because I can find 10 Baggers all over the place but the reason why I bought it is because what a lot of reasons that you guys are excited about this is I believe that you make your money on the second mine you don't make it on the first mine
- and I believe that I'm trusting the company they say that they're building a platform for growth, now that to me if they're saying and then in cont… and they were also saying that this they want to be a multi-mine producer now I'm taking their word at this at face value
- you know like I said I don't really like the board and the management team I think there's too many accountants and lawyers on it, those are the kind of people that make deals you know they sell their company right they don't build they don't build big companies, I like you know CEOs that are you know you've talked to many times so maybe I'm wrong I haven't talked to the guy
- I want a CEO who wants to build a company build a big company right build a major you know that that's where you make your big money like I said you make your money in a second and third mines and that's the reason why I jumped in because I kind I'm believing them I'm saying okay you guys want to build you know this is your growth platform it's a perfect growth platform the huge free cash flow you use that free cash flow they got 500,000 acres to drill they got a lot of land they got a lot of targets I really like the discovery hole they have at Ruddall, 18 meters at 22 grams that that's a mine in the making there that could easily be the second mine usually when you get a gram meter hole of 400 that usually points to a 2 million ounce mine normally 2 million plus
- so that's a second mine if they hit a couple follow-up holes and that might not be the last Discovery so when you add the combination of you know the free cash flow potential and then the potential of finding a second or third mine and then you throw in the location where I think you're going to get a really good premium and that pushed me over the edge
- and then the final thing of course is you know they dropped 70% in price so they finally got super cheap but prior to that it was always a company that had too many red flags for me
- the other thing I'm really not super excited about is the number of shares they have outstanding they have 5.1 billion that to me is a red flag and here's why it's a red flag is because when it's when it's that high you can have really high volatility
- you can have it in the upside which is great but you can also have it to the downside and so when you know it's hu… you go from 6 pence to 5 pence , it's a big move… Market really big so I would prefer a company that's at least 50p you know I don't like companies that are below 50 pence it just to me it's kind of danger zone
- I want them right and I do not want them to do a reverse split until they're in production or until they finance the mine so that's a risk because whenever a company does a reverse split prior to financing it tends to go down in value 9 out of 10 times, so that's a risk
- so we have these you know these risks that I see but on the whole I told you it pushed me over this edge where again I also told you it's a five for me it's a five to seven, eight year hold this is a long termer here and I think that this company could turn into a very very large company
- so they're you know they're currently at 376 million, I see this company could easily go to three four five billion if they you know if they build at least two mines one thing I like about Havieron, I can't pronounce it is it's his potential to be a long life mine and I like that so this could be a 20-year mine
- and so if it is you know they can grow on that they can build on it so your comments

* No, you've touched on all the all the points there that that excite me and everybody else about it and Shaun very much is and just to kind of go back over that Shaun very much wants to build that dynasty as we call it, you know he's put the board in place that you do say our deal makers especially Mark Barnaba and Elizabeth Gaines, there's a few of the old Newcrest mining guys on the board and the executive side on sorry non-executive side and they I think they've got I think they can't say that they have the funding in place until the feasibility studies released but want of a better word the funding is ready to go. It just needs a feasibility study to be produced and then they can say they're fully funded…
- yeah one thing on funding for me what I found is whenever you have a quality project like this funding is a non-issue it's not something you need worry it's not a red flag that's why I didn't even mention it go on

* No that's okay so I think checking your site is still listed and you might have just answered this so please only graze over it if you have do you still consider it the medium risk that you've listed at and if so where would that risk lie?
- yeah I don't yeah yeah I mentioned it there's several red flags around this company I mentioned probably you know three four five of them so a company yeah I I've been trying to add medium low to my..I don't like to use low risk on any company
- I don't even consider Newmont is low risk anybody, even Eagle isn’t low risk they're all medium but I want to use I wanted to add a medium low but I haven't been able to get my web guy to change it I want to get medium low but these guys wouldn't there's no way they would be medium low yet
- a medium low company is somebody who's producing and has a strong balance sheet and has lot strong free cash flow it's the only way you're going to get the medium low
- medium is actually there you know a really good rating medium in my opinion basically means you should be able to trust these guys unless something happens you don't expect to me that's what medium is , it's actually you know it's a good rating

* Yeah no that's good that's I mean that's kind of where we're at we feel we're at with it in as much as it's the things that we can't control or we're not aware of that are going to make this…
- right, the risk that Greatland shareholders have is opportunity risk they're they have their money here and if some people are overweight again they might not you know have the kind of returns that they could get elsewhere
- like I said there's 10 Baggers everywhere I look right now and so Greatland is a long-term one
- it's not something you really want to be overweight in yeah it's it looks pretty solid it looks like I'm going to you're going to make some money here but it's not in my top 50 list because there's too many producers out there you know there there's too many producers out there that are going to do extremely well once gold and silver break out whereas when those producers are just kicking butt GGP’s going to be just you know kind of moseying along if you will
- it's not going to be you know racing to the top until this mine gets built so we got we got we got some time here to wait now I have no problem waiting you know long term you know this stock can be a 10 or 20 bagger really long term I don't have a problem holding and waiting it I I'm that's my that's kind of my you know my strategy I don't mind buying low early waiting and getting paid five six seven years down the road
- now most people are like that's insane Don why would you wait that long for a big payoff but that's I don't have a problem with that where else are you going to put your money that you're going to get that kind of return, most people are long-term investors you know most people like they're in the stock market they're in it for you know5,7 is nothing most people are in it for 10 15 20 years yeah right so for me to go 5,6,7 this actually pretty short term for the average investor yeah now that that doesn't make sense

* Thank you, so Telfer announced only a few hours ago is only making $240 an ounce and Havieron not been online for perhaps another 6 to 9 months at the earliest doesn't really lend itself to Newmont business model, how do you see the joint venture with Newmont working out and that's actually just been announced that the court has rubber stamped that as a done deal.
- yeah I just think that that Newmont has to embrace this project because they're embracing Australia I mean that's the reason why they're buying Newcrest is because they want exposure to Australia and the one thing about you know for me The Sweet Spot this this is really interesting but for me The Sweet Spot for the majors is 200,000 to 500,000 ounces a year mine
- it's pretty rare to find a mine over 500,000 ounces a year they just don't find those anymore so the sweet spot's like 200 to 500 and you want a mine that's in that sweet spot that has good cost and it's a long life mine
- that's what you're looking for and that's what this mine is yeah so for Newmont to walk away from it to me makes no sense this should be right in there you know you know right on their in their strategy let's get this mine built
- so I see Newmont you know considering this a high priority already mine I don't see why it wouldn't it's in the right location it has the right cost it's long life huge free cash flow it just it makes perfect sense
- and so I somebody tweeted that you know that Newmont's going to sell this thing to GGP because they don't want it and I'm like you gotta be no way I don't buy that for a second it's… what they're gonna give away one of the best projects in the world when they just bought the thing

* I think I think where that comes from is Telfer, Telfer’s a liability of like $500 million a year at the moment so and without the free without the cash flow, Havieron will be the project they want in 10 years time not necessarily the project they want right now which is kind of the thinking behind that thesis if you want
- well why can't they build another Mill you're saying Telfer doesn't work they'll build another one

* Well then the mill works it's the mine itself that's now old and needs backfilling
- they can shut it down and just mine Havieron

* Yeah well that's what they need to do but obviously Havieron’s not online yet so
- well right well then sounds like that's probably what they're going to do if Telfer isn't economic they have Havieron in their back pocket they just shut it down and then put in care and maintenance wait for gold to go to 3,000 and turn it back on right?

* That's a fair I mean that because yeah I guess
- that's you're saying Newcrest owns Telfer is what you're saying

* Yeah Newcrest owns Telfer the mine and the processing mill
- it's yeah it sounds like a perfect fit to me I mean so what if they turn if they only if they used Telfer Mill for Havieron, why doesn't that work?

* No that does work that's what makes it such a cheap start such a cheap business case to start running it's the mining part that's costing the…
- well it's Occam’s razor right the most obvious answer is what happens
- I didn't know I didn't know that that Newcrest is basically losing money on Telfer I didn't know that but now that you're tell you're basically you're saying AISC at Telfers 1,700 1,800

* Yeah they just announced it last night so they're literally making $250 an ounce
- well no $250 an ounce is not terrible it if the margin is to it depends what the margin is so that means the ASIC is about 1,500 if they're making 250

* Yeah I'm just going to try and find that to because it was updated last night in their…
- 250 is not 250 is not terrible you can you can keep the mine running at 250 it's at 150 or 100 where you start to say wait a minute here
- so because gold is getting ready to blast off so you if you have if your margins are 250 you're going to be patient and wait for gold to blast off cuz I mean next year gold could easily go to 2,300 and suddenly your margins are $650

* That makes sense so they mined…
- I really believe that next year we get to 22, 2,300 gold and I believe Newmont knows this too so they're not gonna

* Well that's my next question actually but just to qualify they mined 83,000 ounces of gold out of Telfer last year and that came back he says as he punches through the PDF the head grade is 0.12 I'm guessing that's grams per ton and they sold where's that AISC cost was 1667
- was that USD yeah yeah see that so that's terrible so what you told me yeah you said the margin was 250
- that's not the margin so you take the ASIC and you have to pad it about $200 right so it's basically $1867 so the margin's like $100
- remember I told you if the margin is 150 that's a problem so yeah their margins are are really terrible, basically yeah that's a that's a mine that they're going to consider shutting down if they can't get the cost back to 500 and then waiting until gold gets to $2,500 to start mining again
- you said they mind 83,000 do you know what the resources are at Telfer

* Not off the top of my head but there's not much left I mean they're actually going back through what they've already mined to try and scrape that for the gold now
- oh this is a perfect situation then you basically just shut down Telfer and you use it for Havieron it's pretty much a slam dunk

* Yeah in that in that way is anyway listen let's focus on gold itself it's been presumed for the last few years and you've alluded to the during this conversation that is going to go up over $2,000, but it seems to be struggling somewhat and I've lost my mouse and not really making any headway, could you just elaborate your current thesis on this?
- absolutely so last year so we've been in this correction since August of 2020 I mean it's been brutal you know three-year correction and I thought last year not in 2023 but 2022 I thought in January of 2022 maybe gold could you know make a run
- but it didn't happen because the stock market actually kind of caught on fire last October so October November December January the stock market was going up up up from all that liquidity in the market and I basically said oh we got a big problem here so January 22 I said well that was I basically say you know there's nothing that can help gold break out here
- except there's only one thing that can help gold break out and that's Wall Street throwing in the towel and basically saying that we're going to have a recession the economy is going to slow and when that happens you get capitulation selling and that capitulation selling never happened and it hasn't happened
- we you know we if you go back we haven't had a a big selloff through this whole correction you know we were at the S&P was at 4,800 that's where it peaked we haven't had one big selloff in that whole time yeah we went down to 3500 but it was a slow slow muddle down slow drag down but we never had that capitulation selling that really that selloff that could turn the turn the tide you know into kind of where that Wall Street gives up
- and so since we didn't never had that we went down and we bottomed last year in October a year ago to almost this week we bottomed at right about 3500 and then we've been bouncing out of it and so I've been waiting waiting waiting for this capitulation selling to happen and until it happens I' be like you know we can just wait a lot of people we kept having these rallies and everybody was saying you know we're breaking out here you know a lot of the TA people you know we're breaking out we're breaking out I'm going no we're not we're not breaking out relax relax you know we're not going to break out until the stock market rolls over and they basically capitulate and throw the towel in
- now the we had an eight month run from October of 2022 until this until August it's 8 month run we got the 4600 and we got the 4600 and we rolled over and I basically said that's it the stock market is it's done its final dead cat bounce and now we're rolling over and so we have this struggle at 4200 so now once we got to once we got to 4600 the 200 day moving average is 4200 and so we didn't quite touch it last month we came close and this month we came close I think 4210 something like that
- but we never got down to 4200 we never got down and actually touched that 200 day moving average and then we bounced and we bounced off of it Wall Street got all excited it's like right now we're at 4370 and Wall Street's all excited we're like oh it didn't break down this is great because historically the fourth quarter is usually positive and usually historically October is actually positive once you get to the middle of the month so Wall Street's all excited like oh we got through the bad part now we're it's home we're home free so
- but I but I'm saying that if we don't get back above 4600 let alone 4,800 but Wall Street's got to get through both of those hurdles they got to get through 4600 which would be a higher high for this cycle and then above 4,800 which would be basically a break out of bull market but if they don't so we have a struggle here between those two levels and 4200
- now who's going to win now Wall Street's like we're going to win we're the Bulls are like we're going to win we're going to win and they keep using these arguments that you know the job market is strong that's kind of their number one is one but we haven't gained any full-time jobs in three months and all they're adding is part-time jobs so I don't think the job market is strong
- the other thing they're saying is that the GDP is strong the economy is strong well if the economy is strong how come bankruptcies are on the rise why are credit card delinquency is on the rise why are companies complaining why are people saying that we're the economy is slowing you know why are they keep saying the economy is strong when everybody else saying it's slowing heading into recession
- these arguments for a bull market really don't hold water they're really cherry-picking the data and so inflate the other thing that they're ignoring is a couple of really big big data points
- one is this inverted yield curve you don't have an inverted yield curve of this massive size and then not get a recession I mean that would just be weird right
- the other one is stock markets do not do not peak before recession right they stock markets go down after the recession not before it so stop for all these Bulls to go and be thinking oh we're not going to have a recession we're gonna have a soft landing you know the Market's just going to Rally rally rally here the
- the macro data doesn't support it I see the one thing I like to do is try to what are the odds are the odds in my favour or the odds in your favour yeah well right now the odds are in my favour the odds are in my favour that you have a recession so I'm saying that if the odds are in my favour the chances are that the stock market is not going to go back above 4600 and if it does it's not going to go back above 4,800 and once it rolls over you're going to have to pray that it doesn't break down because once it gets back to 4200 I think the first time it didn't touch it next time it's going to touch it it's going to go through it and that's when the fear trade is going to kick in
- and that's when gold goes up that's the thing I've been waiting for I've been waiting for this fear trade and believe me I think the fear trade is going to be higher than 2008 and it was pretty high then it was so high then that it pushed gold to 1935 from 2008 to 2011 because the fear was so high back then we didn't know what was going to happen could the FED save us
- we weren't sure but now we're going to see oh oh and the other thing that's going to drive fear and I think fear is going to explode is that the FED is losing its ability to control things
- the FED has always in my lifetime been able to do whatever it wants if he wants to lower rates it can lower rates he wants to raise him it can raise him he wants to print money it can but what we're seeing today is that the FED can't do what it wants and this is this is going to be a game changer it's going to be a sea change a paradigm change next year when Wall Street comes to the realization that the FED is feckless and the FED is trapped and the and the only things the FED can do is basically make the problem worse
- because the more they the more they print to to ignite growth they're going to create inflation and they're going to hurt the bond market and the more that they lower rates that's going to do it as well so if they print it's going to create a problem they lower rates is going to cause a problem it's going to be fascinating but I think that next year 2024
- and if we look at history I really feel that in 2016 our political system broke I mean if you look what happened to like CNN and MSNBC in 2016 it was like what is going on it's like you know politicians you know they basically said that you know Trump is not is an illegitimate president you know you know I'm kind of agnostic on that but just the fact that it happened that our political system basically broke in 2016 and it's been broke ever since
- when I say broke I'm just saying that there's no adults in the room
- there's no conversation between these people there's no attempt to fix any problems I mean the only thing these guys are good at is printing cheques for the Ukraine I mean that's about the only thing they're good at or printing cheques to you know keep the economy going I mean not not the economy to keep the government open
- yes they're good at print they're good at spending money like this year the deficit is $2 trillion do but fixing any problems they're just absolutely pathetic at right so political systems broke and then in 2020 with covid our institutions broke right we can no longer trust them you know who can trust our institutions after what happened with covid
- and now in 2024 what's going to happen is our economy is going to break and we're no longer going to be able to trust the fed or the treasury to fix things it's going to be three strikes you're out basically three dominoes they're going to fall and I that's where I think gold we're the recession is going to start in the next five months and then Gold's going to break out in the next five months as well and once it gets above 2,000 and especially 2100 but once it gets above 2,000 that will be the trigger for silver to come running
- until believe me Silver is going to just race yeah and then once silver gets above 30 it's pretty much game on for what I've been talking about for years and years this is going to be the epic once in a lifetime generational precious models Market where everybody wants to be involved
- this is going to basically back to the 1970s type of gold mania and we're we're right on the precipice of it all

* Just getting so close so close to it I'm pretty much with you on everything you've said there with the thesis so thank you for that before I do wrap this up because time is getting on did you have any questions about Greatland maybe I could try and answer for you?
- yeah why not let let's discuss a little bit here

* I'll try to answer as best as I can for you?
- so because you know this story a lot better than me so I'm thinking in terms of their pipeline so do you see like two or like we have we know Rudall they got to go and drill that right do they have a couple other properties that you're like yeah that's a mine and what properties would those be

* So, at the moment Shaun was very adamant from the start that the last the last place he'd ever get rid of is scallywag which is right next door cuz obviously the best place to find a mine is next door to a mine and this… so Rudall, scallywag, Havieron up through this new Rio Tinto ground is all on this Northwest Trend, they're still trying to work out where the source of all the gold is.

Shaun has said this year where they picked up this new Rio Tinto deal that the new areas think Budgie Downs looks more like Havieron than Havieron does with the work that's already been done so we're waiting for those results to come out because at the moment they haven't yet proved that there's any more gold around Havieron ,so Rudall was the closest they've got to it so I think between the scallywag drill results and the Rio drill results we're waiting for they are getting closer at scallywag.

Hopefully Rio also shows that they have got gold down there but at one or two drills a year it's not the fastest of progress at the moment but once they get that Discovery hole then I think you'll start to see more work going into it, but obviously you've got to treat it as a as dust effectively until they make that Discovery haven't you?
- right two more questions for you the first one is there's certain companies that their DNA you just know they're good exploration companies for me like SilverCrest their DNA is I mean they started mining now but those guys know how to find silver drill silver they're just world-class explorers that's why I own Silver Crest because I just know these guys are going to go find another mine and they're great at drilling them out
- is this that's my hunch my hunch is that this is kind of a world-class exploration team is that you your guys feel as well?

* Absolutely and what sets them apart from everybody else is they seem to have become deep underground specialists so as far as everyone's concerned or the just below the surface mines have now been found so if you want to find something you've got to look much deeper underground to find the mine and that's what Greatland have worked on using technology and stuff.
- so, they have some they have some brainy geologist

* Absolutely and so Ernest Giles is the one that you're probably is going to be where the next full mine comes from, they've got proven gold down there but not enough to go we're going to make a mine but they've just got the rights from the local indigenous people to go back there after five years and start re-drilling that and Shaun’s confident that there are a couple of Mines down there on their only remaining last greenstone belt (Note: Archean) in Australia which is what Kalgoorlie is basically
- okay okay my last question so I named my red flags, were there any red flags this is where you got to be transparent are there any red flags I didn't mention that you're aware of

* Red flags now, no I mean when you look through the history there was a few red flags that we were completely blaise to..
- okay so the one thing I would think would have pop into your head was infrastructure challenges are there any infrastructure challenges that they have in that in that part

* Well, you've got the rains that possibly come every 100 years like they've built the mine for a 100 year rain is obviously it's in the middle of the desert so when the sand gets wet it doesn't lend itself very well so roads close and stuff
- so electricity and water is not an issue

* No Telfer’s got its own gas turbine which is and the gas is a pipe was laid back in the 90’s I think from Port Headland through to Telfer, so once the feasibility study comes out that's going to show how they're going to get the actual they're going to extend that from the Power Station through to Havieron so that will be permanently and I think you're going to you're going to see a lot more solar and other technologies being used to make this a very green and sustainable mine
- that's awesome it's all great news

* Especially when you've got Andrew Forrest’s backing who's now our biggest cornerstone shareholder there is definitely it's part of that DNA
- I am sorry I do this every time I say I only have a couple questions and I keep throwing…

* That's totally fine honestly
- so I define insiders as anyone who's a large shareholder who is in it for the long term yes so what percentage of those guys do they have?

* Not many at the moment the, PI’s have got too many shares they've got Wyloo and they've got Tribeca as their two Cornerstone investors and I think what you're wait what we're waiting to see is this transition over to the ASX once they list on the ASX you got to see a lot more investment coming in because obviously they're mandated to
- now it's too late once you get a valuation of 300 million plus it's too late to add a strategic investor yeah they can buy 3 4 or 5% but buying 10% isn’t easy at 30 million plus you might get a couple at five so this this is actually a red flag this is what you should have told me are there any red flags so the red flag is that somebody could buy them out that's the red flag

* That is the red flag that is a fair red flag to say but Wyloo are known for not letting that happen, they like to cause disruptions when the majors come along
- how much how much do they own

* Now you put me on the spot I think he's about 8 to 10%, I know where I can find that information
- we need yeah so we need two of those guys and then they can kind of shut down takeover attempts but I tell you's who's going after you, I'll tell you who's going after you it's going to be Newmont

* I think that's all it can be at the moment
- I think that's who it's going to be, you think they don't want you think they don't want that other 30% of course they do

* I'm desperate for them not to want that other 30% I want this dynasty to happen so that I can live Happily Ever After
- absolutely they're they could easily make a run all they have to do is just start buying up shares

* Yeah and there's plenty of them, which and I think the consolidation that you spoke of Shaun has said that he wants between about 400,000 and 500,000 shares, sorry million shares on the market but they're very conscious as you alluded to earlier in our chat that it can't just happen, it can't just happen it's got to be done at the right time for the right reasons with the right structure
- yeah the timing you do it when you finance the mine
- but they're close they're close to financing they're really close

* So yeah I mean we've had this feasibility study delayed for a year now , Newcrest decided that they were going to switch their reporting structure to…
- you know what you know what the opportunities they have is they could find a strategic investor to pay for their capex

* That would be good that would be very nice, Wyloo I'm just checking own 430 million shares and they are the top Institutional Investor
- yeah about 8% okay

* So yeah I'm still so excited about this project and it it's the what happens next.. it's Havieron is kind of that line is drawn, it's how Greatland then move on to Ernest Giles or the Rio ground or Rudall or scallywag and that's before you look at anything else that's interesting and exciting for exploration so but I think that's what separates the I'm going to say it again the sophisticated to the unsophisticated investor because there are many things that I'm blind to and I'm blinded to by my belief that this is going to work and I think that's probably what costs a lot of people a lot of money throughout investing isn't it?
- right right yeah yeah like for me like I said the number one issue is opportunity cost and length right
- you know do you really want to wait 5 years to get to kind of to expand but it might be it might be faster than 5 years here you know I said because just the if gold takes off and they expand production at Havieron on this thing could really take off
- absolutely so they get into production and they start talking about expansion this thing could really really take off fast so it might not necessarily have to wait five years for my 3.4 billion Target, could get there sooner

* Yeah, and they always said this was a starter mine, this was just phase one this was the starter mine to get the things out because obviously with having to get underground by 400 meters there's a lot of work
- that's the right that's the right way to think about it I couldn't agree more that's how you think about

* So and then once that hoist goes in I think that's when phase two really starts to work and when they look at stoping or block caving or any of those bigger production things
- the thing that's exciting is that once they get that cash flow if they do get it they have a lot of drill targets
- and if they and they're a good exploration team so if they find something they can drill the heck out of it pretty quickly and boom second mine

* Yeah no it really really is Don it's been a real pleasure to have you on the show today and thank you for taking the time to speak with us can I offer this opportunity to speak about any current projects you may have or how people can connect and follow with and follow you
- well you know anybody that owns any mining stocks they definitely want to check out Goldstockdata.com
- it's you know I think it's a fantastic site for people that own mining stocks if you don't you know it's not really for somebody that doesn't own any it's for people that already own some mining stocks so it you know gives you know access to a really good database to find more opportunities but yeah thank for that

* Not a problem at all, thank you for coming on the show and perhaps we can do it again once the project has moved on and things are shaping up
- sure yeah we can do that

* That's awesome thank you so much well that's it for today's show ladies and gents I really appreciate you taking the time to watch the episode of Brew with Bottle on GGPHelp Tv if you have any questions please feel free to leave them in the comments section below, till next time my name is Liam and you've been watching Brew with Bottle on GGPHelp TV, thank you!

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