JPM - Short finally closing..? Only 60m to go

[Hydrogen]

Remember that massive JPM Short...?
The one used to batter the fu*k out of GGP for a cheap takeover...?
The takeover failure that no doubt in part cost Sandeep his Job....
Well if you recall that short was opened (jan22) just before the 5% debacle talks ( were scheduled feb 2022)
And Just look at the correlation with SP when the shorts move...
Guess what's next... True Price Discovery

[Francis]

Sandeep Biswas lost his job because his plan to use JPM to short GGP so that NCM could buy it on the cheap failed..?

That’s pure fantasy. You make Don Durrett look like a rank amateur at woo-woo!

[Hydrogen]

Correct - Sandeep lost his job due to mismanagement of assets and a bullying culture of nastiness ... yes, Francis..
It was widely reported in the press. Turns out he’s a right W*****.

Shorts are closing and rapidly now it would appear. I estimate 50m to go after this past few days action. Of note I also know part of this week's buying - around 30m - went to a fund, so not all these big trades were shorts closing.

There was genuine demand and competition in the Markets.

And I suppose Francis, you don't think the closing of the short position has anything to do with Newcrest 'vacating the premises' and being sold ...? It was just a happy coincidence that NCM-NEW scheme of arrangements was approved on Friday that volume exploded from sub 10m over the preceding 6months… to over 40m plus per day.

I mean, it was such a professional hatchet job - a full blow short and distort: The constant barrage of 100 and 200k tactical sells - Shombs - beautifully executed by design to kill any momentum, the pounding of good/great news with multi million+ size sells ensure SP always finished 3%-4%-5% lower (no matter how fantastic the RNS... ) The 5m size blocker dumps to “piss on sentiment” 20mins prior to Shaun taking to the stage in London, for the first time, to address holders; and not once but twice, several months apart... Nope nothing nasty or tactical about it. This short and distort operation was sophisticated and well resourced- it must have cost someone an absolute fortune. They were constantly on watching 24/7 for months. And You think nothing to do with NCM? - an organisation now proven to play hardball at any cost - the total BS Joke of a PFS NPV - then the 5% option debacle - no MRE produced as scheduled, ever following the original super conservative 3.2moz, no DFS… er… , er no bueno!

Na mate, me neither. It was all Just a ducking coincidence, Francis. Much more likey that Some cheeky hedge fund and NCM broker/client JPM fancied a pop at GGP PIs Paddy Gall and Ramps ol man Bamps on shitty AIM.

Did you ever watch that ex Glencore boss talking recently where he says laughing: "Yes we spend our career nailing juniors to the wall. We screw juniors into a corner, and they we take the keys. That's kind of the business model."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtIPsJ86i-M listen from 12.45 clear as day. W*****.

You don't think NCM would behave any differently...? 7% up today... for a reason. We know the buying is coming from the US. So its either a specialist outfit like Sprott or IMO Newcrest proxies.

We'll soon know. I cannot wait to see the Ortex position post November 6th.

[ManFromUruguay]

Hydro hope you are right but until it says a big fat zero next to Ortex I will not quite believe it!
What about a couple of large sells today and yesterday 2.15m and a couple of 5mills ?
A short/different short that hasn't given up yet ?
Best
MFU

[Hydrogen]

Hey MFU TBF it’s probably never going to show a big fat zero… not now after all that happened.

BUT anything under 5-10m on loan 100% takes us back to pre NCM screwing with GGP levels…

The forced closure via the sale and transition to Newmont might just be all the proof we need that it was them all along.

What come next really excites me - real price discovery.

We don’t have some top professional outfit hammering us down everyday, on every good RNS. Making easy pickings for the Twunts on LSE and AVDFN.

Look guys I know there’s a lot of dark assumptions here but if you think this is not how the world really works then I’m sorry but afraid you need to take a reality check. It’s wrong; it’s bent; It's illegal; and it’s probably untraceable… but at some point, it ends.

I agree - most people play by the rules: until their job is on the line : Then they start to bend and break them. It’s just a fact of life. Look at the political word it's full of do gooders who eventually become scumbags and liars (to protect their jobs or get re-elected).

I was told by someone 'in the know' that “they” would try to screw us - and 'they' tried really long and hard. But thanks to Shaun Day and the resistance and resilience of LTH reading here now - they failed. 'They' and there is a 'they'… never cracked us.

Becuase we know that the Havieron investment thesis is fully validated by 1) NCMs nasty actions 2) Wyloo's DD , Tribeca and recently Jupiter's investments and 3) the FACT we know that the Havieron drilling has delivered mineralisation at high grade over 1300m vertical.

That makes it one of the largest, highest grade ore bodies on the planet.

The rest of the muppets jumped on the short train because of the havoc caused by JPM and NCM proxies - in all my humble humanity indulged opinion - made easy pickings. I've seen a lot in life, and tbf this is really nothing;- but psychological / financial pain was highly significant for some.

With gold closing over $2000 who knows, even any other shorts may go long? That’s just the way it works

The battle for control of Havieron has been Epic. But as Pierre Lassonde says “if you have long life copper-gold asset = Nirvana or Bidding War”.

Either will do me

[‘96dc2]

Assuming you are correct, which I do believe there is truth in it, then you would guess Shaun knew all along who the main culprit was? That must have been frustrating for him.

[CK 1974]

Some people may never fully understand what went on and we certainly won’t get or be able to prove it but hopefully we will be leaving all that behind us now. If that Francis is ‘toffers’ on lse then unfortunately he/she doesn’t live in the real world so replying to them is a waste of your time hydro

[zoros]

Hydro - so I suppose the short interest in Jan of 2023 @ 30m, rising to 70m 4 months later, was a freak event then?
And what is supposed to be happening now according to you - is the real McCoy?

Have you ever thought about becoming a full time fictional writer - you certainly have the flair and drama about you.

Z

[Hydrogen]

Zoros;

The inverse relationship between short position and SP is evident in the first image shared. The purpose was to bash the SP as low as possible. The control they had was surprising I agree. NCM were planning a 2-3p takeout.

That fact is just a fact. My sources are good.
It is what it is and it’s certainly no fiction. We are swimming with sharks.

Sorry if that annoys so you have to criticise me who is simply sharing certain opinions that address underlying information and narrative.

Here’s another thought. Last week’s bad RNS - confirming a two year delay to DFS - original slated as Oct 22 and now a decline “pause” was forced on GGP to ‘manufacture’ a sell off to creating liquidity as it became apparent on Friday there weren’t enough shares available to close their short quickly enough (without causing a major price spike). Another coincidence? possibly.

Yeah I didn’t think Shaun seemed that pleased either, but of course he had to report it. Arguably The only reason the sp didn’t collapse is because a big buyer was sat waiting. How convenient…?

“Nailing juniors to the wall and taking the key is what we do”…

[CK 1974]

Another one I dont see the need to reply to! Zeros has his views and we have ours, least you have the balls to post yours all he has is the ability to post a timeline which we all know anyway and criticise others belief of what’s been happening but if they differ with his then we’re wrong and he’s right! T**t springs to mind for me but each to their own I guess

[Ivan66]

Based on the disrespectful posts by Francis & Zoros, sort of confirms why I don't use the forum very often. If you cannot challenge a point of view without being disrespectful, then it isn't worth sharing.

I had intended to share some of my own observations and speculation, I won't bother.


Not sure what motivates people to behave like this. Sad

[Hydrogen]

Thanks Guys I appreciate the comments. Not sure on their motives either... People just take an opinion about you, I guess.

And 96dc2 - To be honest, I think Shaun was very aware from taking the MD post that if NCM were going to get cute, it would be over and via the 5% clause.

As demonstrated, he was fully prepared. It's why Callum gave him the Job.

[‘96dc2]

Decent volume moving this morning.

[Redirons]

As I’ve said before Hydro - you only provide opinion and research - people can dismiss it (at their folly) or can build it into their own research which is what I do. Thanks for at least sharing what you think whilst those that criticise you, share zip!!! Atb Red.

[Hydrogen]

Yeah 18m volume before lunch is decent. We've been sub 10m for months. Looking forward to seeing more whoppers arriving this afternoon.

[Hydrogen]

Definitely US volume this... So its either US Funds and Pension funds selling TLT moving into gold miners and fast...

Or it's my favourite obsession ... ( you know who! )

9p finish looks on. Just as predicted...

[Ivan66]

"In the end, truth prevails"



Quiet in here today, any ideas ?

[Sureasblazes]

We don’t dare speak as don’t want to break the spell

[Hydrogen]

So GGP hits 9.3p 60+ % up since 13th October and looks like Costas' shorter circular firing squad initiated.

Still so much work to do as well, it seems with 54m still in play. I hope this operation is now costing someone an absolute bloody fortune.

Hold onto that stock peeps cos IMO this squeeze has only just begun... and still has got a ways to go.

If Ortex is correct the 77m recent peak 'on loan' number, at Oct 13th , reduced to 54m yesterday.

We estimate there is approx a 3-5 days lag. This suggests best case that broadly 23m were returned by Tues 25th Wed 25th or Thur26th. The surge in volume commenced - unequivocally - on the afternoon of Friday 13th October, following the Newcrest Scheme of Arrangement vote, in early hours of 13th October.

This provides for 8 sessions to buy back roughly 23m total (or just 3m per session).

Which on the face of it seems ludicrously low - given the huge price moves. BUT from experience I personally know GGP can be very difficult to buy in large amounts.

But the 30-50m Volume since 13th October and the late large buys has indicated one single actor among the group often taking 3-8m size blocks per day.

This figure, if correct, suggests we have multiple major buyers, at play, in multiple markets competing directly with PIs and shorts (and also suggests this run has some distance to go still...

Especially if, 'You know who?' is behind the majority of the short position - now hear this thought out: The whole thing gets unwound but it doesn't much matter the price - so long as the whole operation doesn't make a loss.

Think about that: someone has spent a fortune in time and effort shorting this from 16-18p daily. Now it's rising - having jumped 50% up in a 10 days and the shorts are still in deep. We could easily end up back at 14p area after this run and before they capitulate fully.

I still suggest - getting the stock back at these levels in this gold bull market wont be that easy. And They will really have to pump the price if there is a deadline to meet at 6th November.

Of note, Ortex specified 6 days to cover this short. But IMO that doesn't account for just how illiquid GGP can be to buy, in large volumes, in quick succession - so let's say 10 days to cover is fair.

Remember, It took 6 months for Jupiter to slowly build 92 million and he still moved the price up to 9.2p to fill the final part of that order just before the ASX raise leak.

I suggest and conclude therefore that we have multiple, significant, on market US based buyers - in addition to some shorts closing out.

Could it be an Australian pension fund or whatever? Seems likely to be actors recognising the obvious Newmont Takeover potential. Could even be Newmont direct - that would not surprise me one iota - But no questions there is 100% a PM US-time volume bias.

Whoever it is, is huge, because something/someone is taking 5-7-8-10m blocks per day in single £1m trades. Could even be Wyloo... who knows?

But IMO it's 100% not all the shorts work now given these Ortex numbers - who should have been long gone. The first big change we had a 4m closed on 23rd oct (corresponding to activity probably on the 17/18th Oct. Then the 7m closed on 27th Oct corresponding probably to 23rd/24th buying....

So the key point is that it seems the shorts themselves have been caught initially off TOTALY off guard by this mass buying.

And old Master Investor Jerker Lurker's on ADVFn postings are just looking plain comedy. How wrong can you be about everything? He claims it's 'just to do with the gold price and all goldies are up' - well they are not:

(Let's not mention Horizonte shall we.... down 88% oops)

But For Avoidance of Doubt here's random a selection of goldies price moves over the past month:

Newmont - up 6%
Skeena resources - down 18%
Degrey - up 18%
Hummingbird - up 9%
Adriatic - down 6.2%
Sable Resources - down 18%
Endeavour Mining - down 9%
Caracal gold down - 9%
West Africa - Down 4.5%
Pan Africa - up 11%
Solg down 61%


And GGP up 62% - Go figure.

Literally nothing comes close to GGPs move (over the past month). Suggesting a squeeze situation unfolding.

Now pull the other one Jerker. And crawl back under your rock.

And this squeeze has a long way to run: IMO and it looks like it could even potentially be Newmont buying on market given the timing - if so, they may have 100 to 150m so far or 2% ish... To create a meaningful position they would require about 15-20% at least (which is 1bn).

Good luck with that.

[‘96dc2]

I don’t expect a GME situation, as much as I would like to see it! But it is going to get interesting when they need to close the last 10 or 20 million of the buying continues at this volume.