JPM - Short finally closing..? Only 60m to go

[leslieby101]

Down a further 3.45m (with thanks to JC). The trend continues but it does seem to be difficult for 'them' to purchase in bulk.

Look forward to further musings from the OP.

[Hydrogen]

Quite amusing how everyone, not least the traders and shorter Scum expected a mass sell off today. But it didn’t happen, did it?

Buyer just sat their picking off sellers and will keep picking them off presumably until they realise this buyer isn’t done. Sellers need to give thier head a wobble and think why would anyone steam in an by 400m ggp shares?

Imo the share goes a lot higher than today consequently. Never mind 10p we’ll be at 20p soon enough

If it is NCM proxies then buying could well accelerate tomorrow ( that’s the deadline before the 6th). NCM Shares exchange aftermarket tomorrow.

However this level of volume feels bigger than 70m. It’s all speculation until a Bloomberg print or s TR1 arrives. Expecting one next week at some point.

Ooof… basically, if it’s Newmont. This will literally explode.

[James]

So volume has fallen off, but we now have to contend with millions of hidden trades that get printed the following day. What has changed, and why? SP getting away from them perhaps?

[Hydrogen]

Yeah but i'm Not sure I'd describe it as fallen off ... just slowed a tad.
ADVFN shows 19m volume.
Possibly they / whoever is buying is still sitting at around 9.5 - 9.8p waiting for stock picking off traders
IMO Any sellers at this level may never see it again - becuase this buyer means serious business.
Its a guesstimate - but I think someone just bought about 3% of the company over the past 10 days
And yeah maybe the price ran a bit too much... but if they want it, they'll have to pay for it. Like we did.

[James]

Fallen off in comparison with last week is what I meant. But, that said, how many hidden trades are not contributing to the daily volume hence masking things further. Interesting either way.

[Hydrogen]

No info on this whatsoever - but I am fully expecting Newmont to appear on the GGP register at some point with circa 10%.

Just a gut feeling, stepping back, if you like - after Tom Palmer confirmed this morning their hunger for copper. MOney of Mine guys were saying just yesterday that gold producers were having a bit of an identity crisis and seeking copper.

Remember have is 20-25% copper... And it's 500mt to 1 billion tones depending on the grade/cut-offs. And best copper grade is near the top.

That's a lot of copper.

I'm becoming more certain that Newmont will try to buy Greatland and probably within 12 months

[leslieby101]

So, and forgive my nativity here, potentially then, Newmont are buying c10% of the free float to compress the open marketplace and reduce their potential outlay for a whole purchase of GGP?

That 'offer' needs to be 'eye-watering' in the words of Mr. Day and the next MRE/FS updates would crystalise the initial asking price?

[James]

Back to pre-rise volume levels now. Either the buyer is done or having a break.

[Hydrogen]

Ultra bullish chart IMO... 65% move off the lows, and consolidating into a bull flag.

[Hydrogen]

More controlled buying today ( to support my thesis - ie big buyer in the background) ... mopping up loose stock.

someone wants this company and they are buying everything available....

1m a pop trades still landing

[Redirons]

Hi Hydro - when do we find out who the big buyer is?
Thanks
Red.

[Hydrogen]

Not until they show their hand on Morningstar or Bloomberg terminal which will be end of November or morel likely end of December depending on the filing date. Or they issue a TR1 in the next week or so.

According to legendary mining Ozzy fund manager, Rusty Dellroy, 9/10ths of a Mining Developers valuation is based on the market's perception that a project will happen or be delivered.

[Hydrogen]

Another whopper ... 1.5m traded at 9.5

Scrape that barrel boys....

[FuttBucker]

How do you differentiate between 'shorts closing' buys and 'big buyer in the background' buys please?

[Hydrogen]

Blatanly you cannot.. They are one and the same, or neither. They can be both. Eventually a large position change should show up on Bloomberg terminal or on Ortex.

[Aiming2please]

When is the Bloomberg report due

[Aiming2please]

Forget that just read it further down sorry

[Hydrogen]

Interesting how tightly it held that bull flag and then the closed it 2.5% lower on just 3 trades despite being 9.38 - 9.4 to sell in size all day.

There were just 16 trades out of 227 at 9.2 all day.

Desperately looking for sellers at this level IMO. Presumably... Before they kick off again.

Despite lower volume - a good few of lumpy trades today amounting to 30% of the days 10m volume in just 3 large trades. Of note the 3 large 'SINT' trades - as I understand these are usually hallmarks of an international bank or Authorised Person acting for a fund, corporate entity or similar.

https://www.icmagroup.org/assets/docume ... serRegime-


060417.pdf

[James]

Agree Hydro. They’re looking for sellers but aren’t yet willing to do so by spiking the SP - they will need to change tactic at some point as I aren’t entirely sure it’s going to plan for them.

Also, look at the timing of the largest trades yesterday:

1m in the 10:50 auction
1.5m in the 13:50 auction
The trades at 9.2p (daily low) in the 16:30 auction

Why are the largest trades happening in the auction?
Why are the lowest trades of the day happening in the final, SP altering auction?

Must be nothing…

[Hydrogen]

Quarter of a million pounds almost 1/3 of a million $ dollars in one trade and barely moves the price - literally 50% of the days volume ...

Good job we don't have sellers. How that doesn't move the price, on such low volumes, beats me.