Share price movement

[CK 1974]

Uncharacteristically for ggp the sp seems to be going up! Is it a possibility that the people making this market (“the thieves”) are walking the price up knowing on the 1st October the share register will have doubled showing 10 or 13 billion in issue which technically they could then immediately drop the price all the way back to half of whatever we close at on the 30th?

[CK 1974]

Seems out there, but unless we get an rns that morning explaining to the wider market we are now a producer with 13 billion shares and not an explorer with 13 billion shares only thinking this way cos it’s AIM

[Hydrogen]

Hi there I know we're all a bit done in by price action, but could this movement simply not just be explained by :-

1) a new fund taking or adding to a position?

2) or The Actusray short closing out yesterday, for a small 20-25% profit on £1.6m while they could?

I know it may seem surprising, but this is clearly a transformational deal. There are more buyers than sellers in retail and wider funds should start to move in also as well as GDX.

[CK 1974]

I get that H and I hope that’s the way things are gonna go. It’s a big risk if I sold half my holding in case they do drop it on the 1st and tbh I’ve never had the balls to do it in the past and I doubt I’ve grown any to do it this time I just wondered if it was a possibility that they can do what I suggested.

[Hydrogen]

Surely if anything, it should rise on or after the 1st because we just secured 100%, secured our own destiny , more or less tripled our NAV and bought Australia's 2nd biggest gold mine all for $450m

Where the 5% pirce tells you i'ts worth well over 850m plus Telfer, all day long on the open market. (especially given the unfair terms of that 5% scenario where NCM could walk away from the outcome but we couldn't - its probably worth a lot more - say $1.5bn US.

With the changes to mine permitting policies in Western Australia in recent years the strategic value of Telfer has also probably increased significantly in the past 12 months. Building your own mill is not an easy option anymore in WA.

I have to say that privately, that while possible, the idea of GGP building its own mill at Havieron (should negotiations have broken down with Newmont) filled me with dread because I could see the regulatory changes would've pushed out that permitting process immensely not to mention the existing extended timescales.

Instead, we, start pumping out gold in a few weeks and most probably should get into the GDX at the next rebalance where they could buy 10% of the new company.

I really dont think the market expected the final transaction price to be anywhere near $450m

- The money of mine guys suggested $1.5bn AUD and they know their onions... so that tells me we are starting life here from a position of mahoosive strength.

It's almost totally mad we got it so cheap , but thats how the ROLR landed - it was a big risk to both parties that clause and looks like we hit the jackpot

[Francis]

The Money of Mine guys were spot on when they suggested that A$1.5bn of financing could be needed: A$750m of equity + A$750m of debt is what’s been announced.

[Michael]

The key difference though is that the debt facility for the decline is CAPEX and is spent directly on the Havieron mine development ... rather than lining the pockets of Newmont shareholders ..... and it has to be incurred regardless in order to get to the ore body.

And if the ore body holds around 20mOz all in then it is worth around US$50bill in top line revenue ($US2,500 spot price x 20mOz) in today's money. Say half that in bottom line revenue at US$25bill over the mine life of a few decades.

So GGP will invest AU$800million over the coming year for massive payoff over the coming decades. Plus more CAPEX will be required annually to keep developing Havieron and so a lot more than the 800mill will be spent over its lifetime, however a very handsome profit is still there to be made over the coming decades for GGP and shareholders.

[CK 1974]

I interpreted mom guys implying 1.5 billion to take hav and telfer!!? Maybe I’m wrong?

[CK 1974]

Just worked it out! Fkn a$ us$ and £’s gets confusing!!

[Hydrogen]

The Money of Mine guys were spot on when they suggested that A$1.5bn of financing could be needed: A$750m of equity + A$750m of debt is what’s been announced.

Actually - I totally 100% disagree with you again Francis. Unsurprisingly.

The MOM guys specifically suggested "a massive $ 1.5bn Australian IPO would be an option for GGP to buy Telfer and Havieron" [and build it...] which IMO specifically stipulates $1.5bn AUD or circa $1bn US in equity -

I reckon they were thinking broadly: $550m US to buy Hav/Telfer and probably another $450m to build it.

They absolutely did not say "$1.5bn financing"

Shaun secured this deal for a fraction of that - just £248m ($325m) of equity. [u]and not over $1000m US [/u]

Big difference. Massive! A whopping 200% cheaper than these highly experienced analyst's estimates way cheaper than our own valuation of the 5% (850m based on 2022 drilling and way cheaper than Grant Samual $500-600m estimate including the Telfer Liability.

As Charles Archer said "it's a fucking steal".

We have saved an absolute fortune in debt and dilution using the ROLR leverage. You guys need to give your noggins a wobble and understand this stuff better. Its an absolutely MEGA deal. Clear as day.

Word for Word from 22.35 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXEeZQRpA1A&t=1510s