Well obviously not quite as on the pulse as some, eh Steebol? I’ll give you that...
but TBF I do really respect the Money of Mine guys opinions on the whole they are shrewd and on point, so I think that gives these two some credit, even if it’s 3months behind the 8 ball .
Taking of our Bird Steebol
The Money of Mine guys took a look under the hood of Aussie gas in a podcast earlier this week about Santos/Woodside- well worth sharing on tbe relevant LSE site - as it was bloody eye watering re the east cost shortfall. Starts 10mins in https://youtu.be/0UsebBF7z1o?si=Idy0LRb7h-Z4fgt9
Plus their recent fund manger hot picks episode for 24 included natural gas as a key commodity pick by several professionals.
The info from Hydrogen’s “good source” has turned out to be incorrect. The outcome described as “NO [effing] way - and I mean totally ZERO chance” is happening after all.
Hydrogen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:52 am
I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer.
You know what that means/implies..? YUP - no ‘big’ cash raise.
(snipped)
IMO This is how it's going to play out:
My source suggested there is absolutely NO [effing] way - and I mean totally ZERO chance - that Newmont is planning to spin out Telfer/Havieron fast.. Becuase i kid you not, they are saying Havieron will produce for 'Generations'. And much of the processing Capital has been spent. We're in a toll treating situation.
(I had a personal debate as what 'Generations' implies - either 2x15 years or 2x25 years - but I take it as at least 40 years and at least as big as Telfer.
So what does this mean ? Well obviously it may appear to mean no BIG dilutive raise to buy out NCM's 70% of Hav and/or Telfer. It means Havieron is a 'goer' as is... And no complications raising the capital required to develop a big project (a la SXX) Again All My personal preference - I was about to get a little upset if Newmont chose to 'pass' on Hav TBF)
Hand on Heart, whats your own thinking now after ' I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer.'
Yes - Hand on heart jiffy they are as shocked and surprised as me. But that info was 6 months ago mind.
Looks like a pretty severe and sudden change of tact. I guess that happens. This has very much surprised the market and surprised everyone and I suppose the truth is it’s a little impossible to know how the mind of Newmont Executives changes.
But I can't help but think now that this is being fully lined up for GGP.
We know for a fact that outcome was Shaun Day's dream opportunity.
I suppose it begs the question why let it go though?
That could be as simple as the have a willing buying waiting and they need the money. Or it could be they prefer canada.
The latest thinking from my friend is as follows :
Telfer M&A our thinking - from my mining contact:
• The Australian reports:
• Regis Resources and Gold Road Resources tipped as 'most likely' buyers of Newmont's Telfer mine
Northern Star Resources and Evolution
Mining both recently stated that acquisitions were not in the plans for the upcoming year
• GOR does not seem to be a natural buyer as Telfer is a big company asset with a large environmental liability
EVN having trouble integrating Red Lake so doubt they will look to bring on another difficult asset
• Should not underestimate the strategic importance of Telfer's mill for the Paterson Provence, buyer will be more focused on that than the deposit
• I think Regis or NST most likely ASX listed buyers, shouldn't discount offshore though, are Anglo are looking for acquisition in North America/Australia?
• RIO & IGO in the Area.
Not sure what appetite Twiggy has with MCR causing issues, however is the largest shareholder of Greatland, and would be a unique opportunity to consolidate.
A new owner is positive for Antipa Minerals
(AZY) as they will most likely be more positive and hungrier than Newmont.
As a reminder, AZY has th Minyari Dome Project in the area, Newmont own 9.9% of AZY, IGO also owns 4.1%
Last edited by Hydrogen on Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I think it's as simple as looking through the inventory of assets and determining how they were going to make their $2Bn.
As for Telfer, the empirical data shows that there is no absolute guarantee that they will ever work the plant at 100% capacity again, therefore it will (in their minds) be sub-optimal.
Let it go to an organisation that is willing to bet that one of the many opportunities in the Paterson comes up trumps.
Everyone thinks that the area is elephant country........but there are no guarantees and therefore taking on Telfer will come with risky opportunities.
And lets not forget Barrick and Newmont's letting go of Assets like Paulsens and Jundee is what made Northern Star - transforming it into one of the Biggest gold miners in the world.
Northern Star bought Paulsens gold mine for $40m in 2010/11 - it then went on to only produce 486koz over the next 8 years - but what a company maker asset for Northern Star essentially in a down gold cycle too? :
We know Havieron has the capacity to produce 300koz-600koz for 10s of years. And with the modern efficiencies of bulk mining production techniques :
Tell me - How , Francis, how will ALL present owners of GGP NOT benefit from that?
What's interesting is what Shiny Bits said with the power of hindsight.
Maybe the story was as follows...
1) Newcrest/Newmont did TOTALLY want Havieron - they loved it. (which speaks to my first point and info). BUT only on 100% basis.
2) They later realised that GGP/Wyloo's 'blocker stake' was going nowhere. (no wonder it took Twiggy So long to pull the trigger the timing was key)
3) THIS meant either being 1) being locked in a JV with a 30% partner GGP or 2) getting out. 3) buying GGP at. significant premium
4) But worse - AS SHINY BITS detailed - it was literally almost technologically impossible to spilt Telfer to run two separate trains ( Hav and Telfer ) anyhow - swallowing all these costs and processing problems with splitting up processing and gold at Telfer into two trains from two mines as outlined by SB was just an monumental inefficiency and problem
5) So: post 5% they concluded it was going to be FAR too messy and expensive to be in a JV with GGP.
6) But there was another way - if taking out ggp cheap had failed following the 5% Newmont could still remain exposed to Havieron by becoming 20%' holders of GGP and counter parties to GGP
7) The ROLR meant no other buyer would come forward (nobody else could drive a value proposition unlike GGP as we could gazump this)
8) Ultimately the option stands Newmont may choose to take 100% back in the future, if GGP/Wyloo is successful in building a new Tier 1 operation which appear to be their preferred MO?
I know it may appear I'm doing summersaults here to make 'narratives' fit ... and of course there are possibly other valid narratives... but there is an undeniable logic to this sequence .
The only other legit 'explanation' that I can think of is NCM/NM hated Havieron/Telfer so much they were just desperate and wanted to get shut fast as poss - run a country mile from and couldn't wait to get out of dodge. .
..so they literally 'gave' it away... for pennies in the dollar.
Personally - I just don't buy that narrative... I still recall Sandeep singing like a canary about Havieron. Today It's 8.4moz deposit, close to production, with permitted built infrastructure, and we know according to the 5% NCMs stake was worth at least $860m US or with $1.2bn value on 100% basis, (and probably more given the nature of that valuation process).
SO why give it away for less than half or 1/3of that? (assuming there was some additional value in Telfer)?
Because thanks to Shaun (and PIs holding the fort) - they had no other realistic choice, Instead NM can hold onto Hav upside via their 20% Stake....
It’s a case of “if you can’t beat them join them”?
So don't get swayed by troll arguments that Newcrest/Newmont were forced to take that 20% ( and can't wait to get shut...( Wyloo have an option over it all any how)
Because I think it was Shaun who strategically wanted them to own less, if possible... with Wyloo at 8%, NM are less of a threat in the event of a highly successful future. Holding 20% of a company is a good blocker
/starter position to takeovers or to mount a take over yourself.
ITS ALL VERY FINELY BALANCED FOR GGP TO PROSPER NOW IMO. The Sequence and the Reverse application off the ROLR was everything.
My thoughts entirely H2, as i have mentioned before on the possibility of either NM or Wyloo buying out GGP via that 20% stake. Wyloo have more a chance to buy GGP by taking NM 20% plus their 8.5% plus warrants will take them over 30% of the company, a very strong position to be in especially as half of the BOD work for Wyloo or did at one stage. King of the castle as they say. I suppose GGP could buy GGP shares in the open market to counter Wyloo? If POG hits $4000 then we will have a spare $450,000,000 to play around with. Only a thought. DM
I don't think a company can buy shares in themselves except under buyback.
When the shares are cancelled, IE reducing the number of shares and increasing the holding of other shareholders https://www.companylawclub.co.uk/can-a- ... own-shares
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
droverman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2024 7:54 am
My thoughts entirely H2, as i have mentioned before on the possibility of either NM or Wyloo buying out GGP via that 20% stake. Wyloo have more a chance to buy GGP by taking NM 20% plus their 8.5% plus warrants will take them over 30% of the company, a very strong position to be in especially as half of the BOD work for Wyloo or did at one stage. King of the castle as they say. I suppose GGP could buy GGP shares in the open market to counter Wyloo? If POG hits $4000 then we will have a spare $450,000,000 to play around with. Only a thought. DM
Inclined to agree Droverman. But then if Wyloo wanted to buy GGP why not just give GGP the cash to buy Havieron and take the 20% stake now, taking them 28% owner at 1st October.
I Guess Shaun wouldn't have accepted that though as it implies takeover immediately..
It's all very interesting... or, perhaps Newmont would not accept that outcome either...? Hard too be certain until Newmont shows its hand as a seller or otherwise...
its could do wild things to the SP to have nearly 40% of the stock tied up to Newmont and Wyloo. Basically it means the free float hasn't changed much despite the dilution.
.
