Transformed: The New Lens

[Rotherby]

The figures I posted earlier would translate in to about $1.84 million a day, for the production in December.

But better still is the Figures for the Stockpiles.

If my figures are anywhere near correct the surplus is $1.75 Million a day over the 19 moths from 1/1/25 assuming we do not mine and material.

But we are mining and from Shaun's comments we are not going at full speed.

It still give a months production the value of $26 mill.

If we can mine at this rate consistently month on month we have 1.25 million tonnes in December and if we repeat that for one calendar year we 15 million tonnes being 3/4 of the requirement to feed the animal that is Telfer.

Happy as always to be corrected if I am wrong on any of these figures, but it shows what a rosy future we have coming, as we know Shaun want to go further with new developments at Telfer.

If we can produce 15 million tonnes pre year then the stock piles of 35 million tonnes will take 7 years to clear, or until we need |Havieron ore.

[Rotherby]

Putting it all together

Assuming
We can produce in each full month what we did in December 27 days leaving a margin of error of about 10%.

The figures remain similar gold $2700
AISC remains similar (and I think the used figures will be found to be conservative, to the figures that Greatland will produce)

I have only taken figures and worked them up as always happy to be corrected but a profit at this stage 2.7p per share looks brilliant.

And nearly £500 million a year, when we get Havieron producing the sky's (well nearly) the limit as this team will but other end of life mines which they will turn into winners for GGP share holder who stay with course.

[‘96dc2]

Will we get monthly updates on production or will it just be quarterly? I’m guessing if we hear no news it’s just assume full production as normal.

[Irish24]

Shaun said next update will be April

[Mad Mag]

Did Shaun not mention possible news 'every other week' in his Proactive interview?

[Irish24]

Every few weeks but not always production news. It could be exploration news for telfer mine extension, news about Havieron or news about the dual listing.

[Mad Mag]

Ah ok. That'll do me because, touch wood, any news that comes out in the near future should be all good and hopefully share price enhancing. The pain of last 7 years should finally be getting eased. Come on Shaun!!

[Lennie]

Will we get monthly updates on production or will it just be quarterly? I’m guessing if we hear no news it’s just assume full production as normal.

Production updates will be quarterly .. but we MAY get drilling results in between !

[Irish24]

Hi Mad Mag,

I asked Microsoft Co Pilot AI what the production costs would be for Telfer per ounce for the ore stockpile. No mining costs as the ore is already on the surface.

It came back with a figure of $800 to $1200.

Then I asked it to calculate the profit using the current spot price and the higher production cost of $1200, figs below.

Here's the profit calculation for a production cost of $1,200 per ounce:

1. **Revenue**: $2,775 * 500,000 = $1,387,500,000 USD
2. **Production Cost**: $1,200 * 500,000 = $600,000,000 USD
3. **Profit**: Revenue - Production Cost = $1,387,500,000 - $600,000,000 = **$787,500,000 USD**

So, the profit would be **$787,500,000 USD**.

[‘96dc2]

At what point could ggp decide to issue dividends?

[Michael]

My thoughts are dividend are say 3 to 5 years off. The immediate priority has to be funding CAPEX at both Telfer and Havieron. Also, preferably we do not use the banking debt facilities that are available and instead use the cashflow from Telfer to pay for the CAPEX at Havieron. Another thought, I would even prefer we look at M&A acquisitions rather then dividends. USA companies are not known for dividend payments and that is why they are valued so highly, they make a lot of acquisitions to increase the value of the company. Dividends in the UK are highly taxed whereas capital gains in an ISA are tax free, another consideration.

[wildbill99]

Aren't dividends also tax free if contained in an ISA?

[RationalAssessor]

Yes, they are.

As already stated below, I also am not expecting dividends for another few years as SD has already said that he wants to disappoint the banks who are prepared to loan the Havieron Capex.

But.....he has also said the he is a "dividends type of guy".

ATB RA

[Mad Mag]

Hi Irish,

I like the sound of those figures. Anyone can see, bar an absolute disaster, that this has got to be one of the biggest no-brainer investments out there!

[droverman]

Think dividends could be paid earlier once we have capex in the bank for Havieron and some for M&A so me thinks 1,000,000,000 usd in the bank. Not possible to keep loads in the bank because of inflation or Governments taking an extra slice when the sofa vault is cleaned out.
So for me Divi by end of 2026 unless POG goes crazy to 4500 usd/oz as some experts say by end of 2025.
380,000 X 3000 usd/oz profit before Tax = 1.140,000,000. have to pay Divi next year.
Ciao
DM

[leslieby101]

Think dividends could be paid earlier once we have capex in the bank for Havieron and some for M&A so me thinks 1,000,000,000 usd in the bank. Not possible to keep loads in the bank because of inflation or Governments taking an extra slice when the sofa vault is cleaned out.
So for me Divi by end of 2026 unless POG goes crazy to 4500 usd/oz as some experts say by end of 2025.
380,000 X 3000 usd/oz profit before Tax = 1.140,000,000. have to pay Divi next year.
Ciao
DM

When you consider those figures and the potential growth, it really is astounding (to me at least) that the share price sits where it does presently.

[jecsggp]

I think priorities might still be expansion/buying in.

[Guy Shelby]

A bit of clarity on production costs and AISC. These reported figures are estimated for guidance only and have not been externally audited so will be range bound. The US$1.454/oz quoted was based on the greatland base case 15 month mine plan estimated to process the 21.9Mt of Telfer inventory. The AISC excludes amortisation of stockpiles as the Company has not assumed any changes to the existing processing or mining cost structures, relative to Newmonts forecast in the Telfer mine plan which incidently was developed by the company, on the basis of Newmonts previous site forecast for Telfer.

But, however the actual costs perform, currently Telfer AISC carries ‘all’ operating costs. Once Havieron ore begins to be processed, Hav will then carry all the fixed costs for Telfer taking some of the cost burden away from Telfer which should lower the all in costs of any additional Telfer mined ore thereafter.

[Hydrogen]

Hi Guy I was wondering do you have a view on the estimated AISC for Telfer ( under Greatland management) vs Newcrest/Newmont?

The gold price is an obviously stonking healer on our side, but I expect Shaun will also bring some transformation magic to Telfer’s fixed costs somehow. I know he went after ‘vehicle perks’ at Jundee (I believe?) where everyone above a certain rank had their own Ute , and there were literally 100s of them lined up outside the main office - where 20 pool vehicles would do the same job.

Sounds like labour costs won’t be rising anytime soon (given the downturn in nickel, lithium and to a lesser extent iron ore sectors) but there will have been a step up in 2022/3. I assume the gas/energy costs will be on fixed long term contracts...? So what else can Shaun look at whilst also improving general conditions for staff?

[Guy Shelby]

Hi Hydro
Economics are certainly not my strongest so I wouldn’t like to guess, but a tighter corporate structure would have overall impact on overheads, is a happier workforce now with morale being so important for efficient runnng. Just don’t see Shaun wanting to cull staff to trim some of the fat but would expect to see some general attrition through staff retirements and leavers over time. Trimming the fleet down all helps, but would have to consider the trade off if there will need to be remuneration to those impacted if part of their pay package.

Function of higher gold price would reduce take up of the credit facilities with a decrease in loan repayments which are fixed costs. Certainly with take up of any autonomy at Hav will increase efficiency and safety with less UG workforce so insurance will see big reductions.

Beneficiation is one of the biggest costs so the plan to go to a single mill when Havieron starts up , potentially even before then, will see power savings but these are variable costs, particularly by switching between both single and dual trains.