Gold going higher..?
Pierre Lassonde predicts $19,000 gold https://kingworldnews.com/pierre-lassonde-04-13-2024/ listen 12.51
David Hunter predicts $20,000 gold following Massive QE 5 by the fed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YuQGB6cXik&t=253s
George Gammon Predicts $50,000 gold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6pnVXZEY3o&t=28s
And, if you say thats impossible - well I mean who would have thought Bitcoin could hit $74,000 a coin and thats just fugazi - isn't it?
And for the fun of it:
$19000 gold puts GGPs SP at somewhere around £6-8 / share ( based on 300koz at $2500 AISC PE of 15 with a discount of 10% )
Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥
Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥
Last edited by Hydrogen on Tue Apr 16, 2024 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥
Gold is back —
Rana Foroohar 16 HOURS AGO
Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
It’s easy to mock gold bugs, but their moment may finally have come. The precious metal has been breaking out recently amid higher than expected inflation in the US, and general anxiety over everything from geopolitics to the November presidential elections to where monetary policy and markets go from here.
All these things are predictable reasons for gold to surge. But there are deeper, longer-term messages in this rise that investors should pay very close attention to.
Let’s start with inflation. Whatever happens over the next few quarters, I’ve long thought that we were in for a period of “higher for longer” inflation. Aside from the possibility of a technology-driven productivity miracle, it’s hard to think of a macro-trend at the moment that isn’t inflationary.
The economy is running hot — from fiscal stimulus in the US to more supply chain redundancy as countries de-risk, to all the capital investment required for the clean energy transition and re-industrialisation in rich countries. Even ageing US baby boomers are likely to be an inflationary force, since they have health, time and plenty of money to spend.
Gold is historically an inflation hedge. But it’s also something investors turn to when they are worried about the stability of the status quo. It will languish for decades, then break out when the world is at a major pivot point, as it is now.
It’s no secret that the Washington consensus — which expected emerging nations to fall in line with free-market rules written by the west — and the postwar Pax Americana are over. Trade tensions between the west and China are growing. Meanwhile, the weaponisation of the dollar following the outbreak of war in Ukraine has quickened moves in many countries, most importantly China, to sell Treasury bills and buy gold as a hedge against America’s financial might. It is easy to imagine this weekend’s escalation in Middle East tension boosting gold further.
That pendulum shift has many analysts predicting a massive run up in gold. Philippe Gijsels, the chief strategist for BNP Paribas Fortis, and his colleague chief economist Koen De Leus — the authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends — are predicting gold will rise from its current price of about $2,374 an ounce to reach $4,000 in “the not so distant future”. As Gijsels puts it, “this isn’t just an interest rate thing. People are hedging against a new world”.
I was interested to see a tweet last week by economist Brad Setser noting that China’s holdings of US financial assets as a share of its gross domestic product are back down to where they were when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Not all of that went into gold, of course (much went out of foreign exchange reserves and into China’s own beleaguered banks). But it speaks to that changing world.
As a recent report by Currency Research Associates noted, “China buying gold and selling Treasuries mirrors how Europe’s central banks began to redeem dollars for gold in the late 1960s as the Bretton Woods System began to break apart.”
Indeed, that was the beginning of the last long, sustained run up in gold, between 1968 and 1982, when it rose against both the Dow and the dollar. There are other ways in which that period chimes with today. In 1971 when Richard Nixon, then president, took the US off the gold standard, he also imposed a 10 per cent tariff on imports. This was a kind of unofficial devaluation of the dollar to protect US-made goods from exchange rate fluctuations.
Donald Trump has, of course, proposed a 10 per cent across-the-board import tariff if he’s elected to a second presidential term. He has also decried the way in which a strong dollar penalises American manufacturers abroad. But the recent trip to Beijing by Treasury secretary Janet Yellen to protest against Chinese dumping underscores the fact that the Biden administration is equally worried about US industries and workers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some depreciation in the dollar no matter who wins the White House. That, too, would be good for gold, which tends to go up when the dollar weakens.
The final reason to be bullish on gold is the picture on US debt and deficit, which is quickly becoming unsustainable. The most recent congressional Budget Office projections put US debt at 99 per cent of GDP by the end of this year, and have it on track to reach 172 per cent by 2054. If this happens the result would be monetisation, inflation, financial repression and a period of extreme chaos in monetary policy and markets. Bad for the world; good for gold.
Is there any hope of a different outcome? One could imagine inflation eating away some debt. But higher-for-longer rates would create an even more fiscally unsustainable position, given that asset prices and thus tax receipts would be likely to fall.
Gold bull Luke Gromen, who pens an investment newsletter, “The Forest for the Trees”, has argued that since the only thing that can be trimmed from the US budget is interest payments (cuts to welfare entitlements and defence spending are not politically viable), the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to shift direction and lower interest rates so that the US can avoid a debt death spiral.
Yet more easy money would undoubtedly be good for gold. In this strange moment of economic and political paradigm shifts, it seems that most things are.
rana.foroohar@ft.com
Rana Foroohar 16 HOURS AGO
Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
It’s easy to mock gold bugs, but their moment may finally have come. The precious metal has been breaking out recently amid higher than expected inflation in the US, and general anxiety over everything from geopolitics to the November presidential elections to where monetary policy and markets go from here.
All these things are predictable reasons for gold to surge. But there are deeper, longer-term messages in this rise that investors should pay very close attention to.
Let’s start with inflation. Whatever happens over the next few quarters, I’ve long thought that we were in for a period of “higher for longer” inflation. Aside from the possibility of a technology-driven productivity miracle, it’s hard to think of a macro-trend at the moment that isn’t inflationary.
The economy is running hot — from fiscal stimulus in the US to more supply chain redundancy as countries de-risk, to all the capital investment required for the clean energy transition and re-industrialisation in rich countries. Even ageing US baby boomers are likely to be an inflationary force, since they have health, time and plenty of money to spend.
Gold is historically an inflation hedge. But it’s also something investors turn to when they are worried about the stability of the status quo. It will languish for decades, then break out when the world is at a major pivot point, as it is now.
It’s no secret that the Washington consensus — which expected emerging nations to fall in line with free-market rules written by the west — and the postwar Pax Americana are over. Trade tensions between the west and China are growing. Meanwhile, the weaponisation of the dollar following the outbreak of war in Ukraine has quickened moves in many countries, most importantly China, to sell Treasury bills and buy gold as a hedge against America’s financial might. It is easy to imagine this weekend’s escalation in Middle East tension boosting gold further.
That pendulum shift has many analysts predicting a massive run up in gold. Philippe Gijsels, the chief strategist for BNP Paribas Fortis, and his colleague chief economist Koen De Leus — the authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends — are predicting gold will rise from its current price of about $2,374 an ounce to reach $4,000 in “the not so distant future”. As Gijsels puts it, “this isn’t just an interest rate thing. People are hedging against a new world”.
I was interested to see a tweet last week by economist Brad Setser noting that China’s holdings of US financial assets as a share of its gross domestic product are back down to where they were when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Not all of that went into gold, of course (much went out of foreign exchange reserves and into China’s own beleaguered banks). But it speaks to that changing world.
As a recent report by Currency Research Associates noted, “China buying gold and selling Treasuries mirrors how Europe’s central banks began to redeem dollars for gold in the late 1960s as the Bretton Woods System began to break apart.”
Indeed, that was the beginning of the last long, sustained run up in gold, between 1968 and 1982, when it rose against both the Dow and the dollar. There are other ways in which that period chimes with today. In 1971 when Richard Nixon, then president, took the US off the gold standard, he also imposed a 10 per cent tariff on imports. This was a kind of unofficial devaluation of the dollar to protect US-made goods from exchange rate fluctuations.
Donald Trump has, of course, proposed a 10 per cent across-the-board import tariff if he’s elected to a second presidential term. He has also decried the way in which a strong dollar penalises American manufacturers abroad. But the recent trip to Beijing by Treasury secretary Janet Yellen to protest against Chinese dumping underscores the fact that the Biden administration is equally worried about US industries and workers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some depreciation in the dollar no matter who wins the White House. That, too, would be good for gold, which tends to go up when the dollar weakens.
The final reason to be bullish on gold is the picture on US debt and deficit, which is quickly becoming unsustainable. The most recent congressional Budget Office projections put US debt at 99 per cent of GDP by the end of this year, and have it on track to reach 172 per cent by 2054. If this happens the result would be monetisation, inflation, financial repression and a period of extreme chaos in monetary policy and markets. Bad for the world; good for gold.
Is there any hope of a different outcome? One could imagine inflation eating away some debt. But higher-for-longer rates would create an even more fiscally unsustainable position, given that asset prices and thus tax receipts would be likely to fall.
Gold bull Luke Gromen, who pens an investment newsletter, “The Forest for the Trees”, has argued that since the only thing that can be trimmed from the US budget is interest payments (cuts to welfare entitlements and defence spending are not politically viable), the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to shift direction and lower interest rates so that the US can avoid a debt death spiral.
Yet more easy money would undoubtedly be good for gold. In this strange moment of economic and political paradigm shifts, it seems that most things are.
rana.foroohar@ft.com
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥
So a year on it looks the goldbugs and the macro economists were , well right ...
so why does does this matter to Greatland gold more than anything .... Because the media and other commentators are struggling to explain the runaway gold price. Interest rates are high. The dollar is high. And gold is getting hammered ... er well no , gold is smashing all time highs on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.
So why..? what gives And what's next - where is the puk going ... here's an FT article that jostles with the concepts:
Todays FT for example debates the situation succinctly: hTTps://www.ft.com/content/f6459ed1-8a6 ... e8546912f0
FT Article Text :
Gold glitters as the unimaginable becomes imaginable
Another week, another record high for the gold price. Cue wild celebration among goldbugs — and frantic speculation from everyone else about the reason for the explosion in demand for the precious metal.
Geopolitical turmoil is one obvious explanation. Inflation concerns amid insane tariff dramas is another. However, there is a third, less noticed, issue bubbling away too: some hedge fund contemporaries of Scott Bessent, the hedgie-turned-US Treasury secretary, are speculating about a revaluation of America’s gold stocks.
Currently, these are valued at just $42 an ounce in national accounts. But knowledgeable observers reckon that if these were marked at current values — $2,800 an ounce — this could inject $800bn into the Treasury General Account, via a repurchase agreement. That might reduce the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year.
This week such chatter intensified after Bessent both pledged to “monetise the asset side of the US balance sheet” — in other words, to focus on assets as much as liabilities — while also promising to lower 10-year Treasury yields.
“Re-marking . . . to current market value would mechanically deleverage the US balance sheet,” says David Teeters, of IESE business school, who notes that if gold prices keep rising, this potential blessing swells. Or as Larry McDonald, a libertarian analyst, notes: “It is time to get creative around . . . Uncle Sam’s balance sheet.”
Will this ever happen? I don’t know. Nor, I suspect, does Bessent, since it is the ever-capricious Donald Trump who sets policy. But the fact that this wild speculation is swirling underscores three key points.
First, investors know that Bessent has an incentive to be creative, given the scary fiscal hole. House Republicans are mulling a massive tax and spending bill that would add “up to $5.5tn of net primary deficit increases” and “boost interest costs by about $1.3tn over the next decade” according to the Committee for a Responsible Fiscal Budget. That could spark bond market alarm this spring, if not a Congressional revolt from populist nationalists. And that hole cannot be plugged just by smashing a tiny agency like USAID (a grotesque move), or letting Elon Musk halt federal payments (also outrageous). “While there are potential cost savings, the only way to create fiscal responsibility is with substantial tax increases,” argues Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary.
Second, Bessent needs currency tricks as well as fiscal ones. As JD Vance, the vice-president, told Congress last year, Trump’s cabal considers the dollar to be wildly overvalued — to the degree that it is hollowing out the country’s industrial base. They attribute that to its reserve currency status.
But while they would prefer a weaker currency, Trump also wants to retain that global dollar dominance and Bessent himself knows that tariffs will probably strengthen its value.
That makes their policy seem bizarrely contradictory. But some market commentators, such as Luke Gromen, think the contradiction could be resolved if the Treasury tolerated, or enabled, gold to keep surging against the dollar. “Gold is likely to be a key pivot [for] the new system the Trump administration is clearly trying to engineer,” he says.
Many mainstream economists would disagree, but that just illustrates the third key point: the realm of possible policymaking — the so-called Overton window — is now widening. To grasp this, look at a dense investor memo written last year by Stephen Miran, who heads Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, which is the most thoughtful explanation of Trumpian financial economics that I have seen (echoing ideas largely endorsed by Bessent, among others).
Miran argues that investors should expect tariffs to be used initially as a dramatic negotiating tactic (as they were this week). They will later be deployed as a longer term means of raising revenue and demarcating geopolitical allies. He also contends that the dollar’s reserve status and American military dominance are so tightly entwined that the White House could force countries who enjoy the US security umbrella to finance its deficit by buying very long-dated treasury bonds.
More strikingly, Miran predicts that while tariffs will initially strengthen the dollar, the greenback should eventually fall, even if the White House defends its reserve currency status. How? He outlines several tactics that could be used, including “voluntary” co-operation from the Federal Reserve and a multilateral dollar devaluation accord.
Such ideas might seem mad. And Miran acknowledges that the policy “path” to implement tactics like these “without material adverse consequences” is “narrow”. Quite so. “If they start playing games with a weakening dollar, that is highly risky,” says Rubin. But what Miran’s memo shows is that once-unimaginable ideas are now becoming entirely imaginable. And not just Trump’s threat to invade Greenland.
Thus it is no surprise that gold is outperforming bitcoin right now; nor that traders are flying gold bars from London vaults to New York. Welcome to a financial Alice-in-Wonderland world where buying bullion seems almost sane.
gillian.tett@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025. All rights reserved.
so why does does this matter to Greatland gold more than anything .... Because the media and other commentators are struggling to explain the runaway gold price. Interest rates are high. The dollar is high. And gold is getting hammered ... er well no , gold is smashing all time highs on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.
So why..? what gives And what's next - where is the puk going ... here's an FT article that jostles with the concepts:
Todays FT for example debates the situation succinctly: hTTps://www.ft.com/content/f6459ed1-8a6 ... e8546912f0
FT Article Text :
Gold glitters as the unimaginable becomes imaginable
Another week, another record high for the gold price. Cue wild celebration among goldbugs — and frantic speculation from everyone else about the reason for the explosion in demand for the precious metal.
Geopolitical turmoil is one obvious explanation. Inflation concerns amid insane tariff dramas is another. However, there is a third, less noticed, issue bubbling away too: some hedge fund contemporaries of Scott Bessent, the hedgie-turned-US Treasury secretary, are speculating about a revaluation of America’s gold stocks.
Currently, these are valued at just $42 an ounce in national accounts. But knowledgeable observers reckon that if these were marked at current values — $2,800 an ounce — this could inject $800bn into the Treasury General Account, via a repurchase agreement. That might reduce the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year.
This week such chatter intensified after Bessent both pledged to “monetise the asset side of the US balance sheet” — in other words, to focus on assets as much as liabilities — while also promising to lower 10-year Treasury yields.
“Re-marking . . . to current market value would mechanically deleverage the US balance sheet,” says David Teeters, of IESE business school, who notes that if gold prices keep rising, this potential blessing swells. Or as Larry McDonald, a libertarian analyst, notes: “It is time to get creative around . . . Uncle Sam’s balance sheet.”
Will this ever happen? I don’t know. Nor, I suspect, does Bessent, since it is the ever-capricious Donald Trump who sets policy. But the fact that this wild speculation is swirling underscores three key points.
First, investors know that Bessent has an incentive to be creative, given the scary fiscal hole. House Republicans are mulling a massive tax and spending bill that would add “up to $5.5tn of net primary deficit increases” and “boost interest costs by about $1.3tn over the next decade” according to the Committee for a Responsible Fiscal Budget. That could spark bond market alarm this spring, if not a Congressional revolt from populist nationalists. And that hole cannot be plugged just by smashing a tiny agency like USAID (a grotesque move), or letting Elon Musk halt federal payments (also outrageous). “While there are potential cost savings, the only way to create fiscal responsibility is with substantial tax increases,” argues Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary.
Second, Bessent needs currency tricks as well as fiscal ones. As JD Vance, the vice-president, told Congress last year, Trump’s cabal considers the dollar to be wildly overvalued — to the degree that it is hollowing out the country’s industrial base. They attribute that to its reserve currency status.
But while they would prefer a weaker currency, Trump also wants to retain that global dollar dominance and Bessent himself knows that tariffs will probably strengthen its value.
That makes their policy seem bizarrely contradictory. But some market commentators, such as Luke Gromen, think the contradiction could be resolved if the Treasury tolerated, or enabled, gold to keep surging against the dollar. “Gold is likely to be a key pivot [for] the new system the Trump administration is clearly trying to engineer,” he says.
Many mainstream economists would disagree, but that just illustrates the third key point: the realm of possible policymaking — the so-called Overton window — is now widening. To grasp this, look at a dense investor memo written last year by Stephen Miran, who heads Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, which is the most thoughtful explanation of Trumpian financial economics that I have seen (echoing ideas largely endorsed by Bessent, among others).
Miran argues that investors should expect tariffs to be used initially as a dramatic negotiating tactic (as they were this week). They will later be deployed as a longer term means of raising revenue and demarcating geopolitical allies. He also contends that the dollar’s reserve status and American military dominance are so tightly entwined that the White House could force countries who enjoy the US security umbrella to finance its deficit by buying very long-dated treasury bonds.
More strikingly, Miran predicts that while tariffs will initially strengthen the dollar, the greenback should eventually fall, even if the White House defends its reserve currency status. How? He outlines several tactics that could be used, including “voluntary” co-operation from the Federal Reserve and a multilateral dollar devaluation accord.
Such ideas might seem mad. And Miran acknowledges that the policy “path” to implement tactics like these “without material adverse consequences” is “narrow”. Quite so. “If they start playing games with a weakening dollar, that is highly risky,” says Rubin. But what Miran’s memo shows is that once-unimaginable ideas are now becoming entirely imaginable. And not just Trump’s threat to invade Greenland.
Thus it is no surprise that gold is outperforming bitcoin right now; nor that traders are flying gold bars from London vaults to New York. Welcome to a financial Alice-in-Wonderland world where buying bullion seems almost sane.
gillian.tett@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025. All rights reserved.
In the end, Truth prevails...