Our big vision - a question

[Hydrogen]

The Doors.

IMO it would take a horrendous curved ball now to fu*k this up. Possible, under poor management - such as was in place at Horizonte and Hummingbird and to a lesser extent Shanta - where shareholders were also robbed and badly tucked up.

Bringing Havieron on could well provide such a curved ball. But next to impossible with the current management: what we have now in Telfer plays to ALL of Shaun's Strengths - And what we have in him is gold dust: when we speak he listens. He really cares about the smaller PIS. He wants us to be successful in our huge decision to back him.

Sometimes we may not like that decision (such as the initial reaction to the dilution) but your can guarantee the decision, hard as it may have been, will have been taken from a position of strength and will have been war-gamed to every scenario to the Nth degree. Every decision he takes will be in the interests of us long terms. (I'm thinking 3-5 years out now)


Just step back and look at what hes' achieved in 3 years... Hes transformed Greatland from the Jaws of Bankruptcy and gamesmanship of NCM.

He's transformed GGP into a major 300-450koz gold producer by late 2024 (which at least 12-24 moths ahead of best case scenarios ( ie Havieron schedules)

Some how he's won back the other 70% of Havireon using the ROLR for 50% dilution but simultaneously generated the funding stream to pay for Havieorn (given the 507koz on the RoM )

This IMO takes our NAV to well over $1.8bn.... (1.2 for Hav plus the 500-600m profit sat on the Rom at Telfer)

The $160m + 20% of the company) up front purchase price did not include much value for Telfer's physical infrastructure and permits - which originally cost at least $1.5-1.8bn US to build back in 2004 - so whats that in today's money? (I'll give you a hint gold was $300-400 oz) IMO it's approximately 4-6x so at least $5bn US worth of infrastructure in Telfer. How much would it cost to build Telfer today - $5bn ... $10bn...? more?

Then you have the US $50m Telfer mill refurbishment shutdown costs that just took place (generously funded by Newmont).

And then to top it off we have a fully functional massive former Tier1 mine to explore and the potential to produce from for the next 5-10-15 or 20 years ...

Having Trust is everything. And it's critical as an investor: It's a measure of many qualities: Honesty and integrity but it's also a measure of one's technical aptitude and skill level. But on top of this you need something else : The total willingness to work hard:

Now listen to this 5 or 6 times: hTTps://x.com/GreatlandGold/status/1890239618840146150

What could go wrong? Well gold price could collapse to $1800. The tailings dam could collapse via some new giant sinkhole or wyloo or Newmont could table a bid to buy us back at 15p... But at least you get to vote/

BUT IMO It seriously is time to back up the truck. DYOR etc.

[Michael]

If Shaun has reset his time with GGP for say another 5 years, that will take him into his mid-50's and then time to retire no doubt. Go out on a high and with a large sum of money to retire on. A lot of his future wealth is to be determined by his shares held with GGP. So with that said it is in Shaun's (and ours) personal interest for the share price to rocket from here.

[Rotherby]

I think we should have lost our investments in GGP if the world had any logic, but some times luck is on your side.

Our luck was Shaun Day, coming in, whoever selected him, needs to be complimented.

What he has done in taking GGP through the obstacle course of the years since I found GGP, by accident, has been nothing short of incredible, little did I know that the company I was investing in (in the second half of 2020) was on its way to liquidation, having more commitments than it could ever finance.

I don't know the field of people that could have steered the company along this road, but I am sure that there are not many, and not many that would have took on the challenge, I assume Shaun did not fully know what he was taking on at the time, but having taken the job he decided he would make a go of it.

I think there will be more curved balls, but the management and BOD he has put together is outstanding, but this team have dealt with most problems successfully in the past, or know someone who can, I fully expect them to do so in the future.

Normally it is the BOD that recruit the CEO/MD , I know of no situation other than expanding single owner companies where this situation has happened, and I think there may be very few or none that have recruited a BOD of the calibre and status of the BOD that Shaun has recruited.

I have had a few wobbles but I have held (often wrongly) through it all and I now see a BRIGHT light at the end of the Tunnel I cannot see how long the tunnel is but that is normal, drive through any long tunnel and you will understand.

Having got here I think we are at the real start of Northern Star Resources Ltd version 2, as Shaun always said about 30% of Havieron we had a better starting place than NS, I think we have a more established BOD.

All of these thing are in place and I hope we can do nearly as well and having done it once, as anyone knows the first time is the learning curve so second time, should be quicker.

The News flow should provide lots of individual chances for rerating of the share, I always remind myself that the only times I want the share to be performing well is when I need the money.

[The Doors]

Thaks Hydro, Redirons, Michael, Rotherby for the very valuable contributions.

Yes, Shaun has the opportunity to burnish his growing reputation with continuing high quality leadership. And he’ll earn good references from Twiggy, Barnaba, Newmont, Gaines who will all be speaking warmly about him and his future choices will probably be sitting on their side of the boardroom table somewhere.

I do have a feeling that his credibility places him high up in the headhunting list for larger firms, but he also has the chance to be the leader of takeovers.

It is a lesson in watching an emerging leader come to the fore. Good appointment by Borelli

And GGP has strong leaders elsewhere in the business by the sounds of it, and my gaze will turn to who succeeds him - but not just yet please, in 5 years.

The reason this topic was initiated was to help us look to the future and anticipate what good things will come. Yes there will be curveballs, but for every one of those there will be a bonus ball.

And the other reason for initiating this topic is to get our heads out of the present. We spend a lot of time chatting about operational things we can’t be expected to know about, but that doesn’t stop everyone from throwing their tuppence worth in.

I’m taking a high level view from now on so I can make decisions about when to take some profit, or to buy more, and how to research my investment with less bias and more analytical considerations.

[Hydrogen]

I don’t believe a massive company like BHP or Rio could offer Shaun what he really wants - the satisfaction and kudos if actually building a large, globally significant mid cap mining company from launch asset discovery (that we owned just 30% of when he arrived and very almost 25%!!) to a multi asset 1moz+ producer - essentially NST 2

And make no mistake, he spotted and fostered that transformational opportunity to leverage Havieron from the outset. To totally outmanoeuvre Newcrest the way he did was just absolute class frankly.

Callum saw at least 5 other candidates for Shaun’s job during the recruitment process and apparently Day towered over all of them together!

I can’t see he would want another role, not until he’s fully established GGP and grown it into a Multi Asset multi mine producer…!

Day saw exactly how and what Bill Beumont achieved at Northern Star. He was taught and trained by the master!

[droverman]

Looking at the future of GGP and SD. When SD was at NS they expanded the company by buying other companies on their last legs but each one had a working mill, just like Telfer. At the time NS was buying said miners the POG was low and the majors started to sell off and of course NS to their credit bought them and expanded the resources and there they are with 6 operating mines, but not bought anymore since then.
Miners always diminish the resource by production and must find other deposits or expand those deposits to maintain company value.
For GGP to follow in the same path as NS to spend excess monies after developing Telfer for another 5 years production while Havieron comes on line, where are the majors mining in Oz where the resource is on the last leg with a running mill within the next 5 years that GGP can buy. NS success was built on buying large mines with running mills and i cant see another scenario in the near future.
EG is possibly the future in 10 years time if we find at least 10 million oz in nice big easy deposits to mine, but will need a mill and processing plant with all the infrastructure, with likely cost of >2 billion usd to build and 4 years of divi to pay for it.
My take on this is to prove up EG in time and then JV with a major. In the meantime GGP has to find new deposits adjacent to Telfer/Havieron.
As SD stated a few times, there is 20 million oz in Havieron, ie 40 years LOM, at least me thinks. DM

[The Doors]

Droverman, I always enjoy your posts on LSE and your insightful post here really does bring a perspective. I hadn’t considered there is a finite amount of working but unloved mines and now the gold price going very well others may well join the fun of acquiring them.
The NS model might be partially replicable. It’s going to require more discoveries as you say, more Havs and half-Havs as Shaun put it. Which is what all the contributors to this thread have all been saying too. The reason I parrot these words of Shaun is that he has a knack of dropping in quotes like the half- Hav quote as well as ‘elephant country’ and then it starts to make more sense to the uninitiated like me much later.
There’s very much the making of a strategy and future plans there and perhaps the appetite of new investors will be whetted by any new finds and added resources of those in-house prospects and Telf/Hav.
One other hint about the future is the removal of ‘Gold’ from our name. That isn’t saving on the print costs, for me that implies we might be ready to look past what we currently know and bring more metals into the fold. After all, what better time to be in critical and precious metals and minerals than now ?

[Maximus’s dad]

Tungsten…..O’Callaghan’s perhaps ?

[Irish24]

Diversification into other metals makes perfect sense in a volatile market.
We already have gold and copper on stream at Telfer and nickel has already been identified in another asset although SD has hinted it may be something to divest as not core business.

A lot of possibilities for the board to consider and opportunities ahead to realise.

[droverman]

Nickle is supposed to be in Havieron, was mentioned many times but not confirmed if any or how much if it is there.
There is silver in Telfer, but we need to find more as its going to the moon. DM

[Hydrogen]

Well said mate : "The reason I parrot these words of Shaun is that he has a knack of dropping in quotes like the half- Hav quote as well as ‘elephant country’ and then it starts to make more sense to the uninitiated like me much later".

Couldn't agree more: There is so much, I believe, that has been 'hinted at' that's just begging to be fully confirmed. The nickel at depth in Hav EB the Bulk Mining opportunity etc... But as a company we've only had true visibility - and 100% control of the narrative - for just a few months. Shaun's now walking with giants ... so he's had to rein the public loose talk in a bit to slowly increase the information in increments. He doesn't want to the message to sound off beat (because it doesn't fully chime with what the market thinks it knows about Hav)... he has to progress with caution. And fully ensure documents back everything up.

Essentially for 2 years it made no sense to brag about Havieron - other than privately to key investors, - or prematurely publically speculate or really speak to true scale of things until the 100% deal was sealed. There's an absolutely huge difference between Havieron with a decline vs a decline and a bulk handling solution (IE A 2ND CONVEYOR DECLINE OR SHAFT). That difference is IMO some 200 to 300% (more than 2.8mt) and the market is clueless.

There's also Winu still don't forget The progress of this with the Japanese Mitsubishi group is good, but it's far too small for Rio. They will probably sell it at some point and then we have Antipa - they're certainly not going nowhere fast soon..

Newcrest sure made a fine job of muddying the waters - the messed the narrative to the extent that it will take a year or more to fully unravel.

Here's an example of the ongoing confusion and what the market still thinks about Havieron - because according to NCM / Newmont data it's still relatively small ... Luca from Wyloo felt it appropriate to step in personally and put them right:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur ... 9656833%29

Our time will come when the market fully gets it.

And finally starts to understand what it doesn't know about Greatland

[The Doors]

Hydro, those thoughts of yours chime with questions I had in my mind as I slogged through today’s jog on a grey and damp winter’s day - “who else is in the Patterson and what will they mean to us”:so your graphic is very welcome. We’ve arrived at the same reflection about who GGP might be interested in working with. Shaun’s words have also indicated an openness to collaborate/be good partners with others in the neighbourhood. His credentials as an ‘honest dealer’ could break the traditional adversarial ways of the past and see a more enlightened and modern leadership style whereby others trust him sufficiently and come alongside GGP in an informal way- like friendly navies sailing alongside one another, or potentially even merging. There’ll be those who may wish to see an overly commercial edge to what we do, but my sense is any deals for processing we might do will be collaborative and progressive. GGP wouldn’t be a threat to anyone and that magnetises who we are and draws in those who see sense in speed to market. After all, who has time to build a new mill even if they had the money; better surely to sub-contract it put to an existing (and honest) partner.

So along with our earlier observations about multi-metals being part of the future GGP (nickel, molybdenum, tungsten) we could see a mould-breaking open hub that invites and encourages other firms to think less tribally and to collaborate.

In a particularly fantastical hypothesis, could we see the raft of Aus Govt grants that are likely to go to smaller firms in WA to build discovery plants for other elephants (viz. EEE and Titanium) becoming part of a joined-up empire that has GGP taking a share of those growth firms or the project costs as a gateway to having successful stakes in burgeoning companies. Australia First might be a mantra, and certainly something Twiggy would endorse.

I know there are those waiting to see more clearly as Hydro says, those not yet understanding the big dreamy prizes that we do - some might say we are not qualified to have those dreams - but the rumble of a new era in elephant country with a leader in SD breaking old moulds and thinking mega strategically could be why people are waiting. Even the smart money might not trust themselves enough yet to pile in yet, but when Shaun does speak with evidence and data and specific projects and deals to the market we won’t be (too) surprised.

For balance, this thread has included plenty of speculation and conjecture. It would be prudent to consider whether people are already overinvested in GGP (like myself) and whether a balanced portfolio should be part of protecting your hard-earned dinarii.

There is a time to be in metals and after 8 years of impatience because I might have arrived at this party a little early, but now that everyone’s turning up the music can be turned up to 11 and the slow foxtrot can be replaced with some lindyhop

[leslieby101]

My god this thread is uplifting. So much detail here, some known, some hypothesising but all incredibly exciting.

It's threads such as these that allow an individual investor to consider alternative solutions to multi-year financial planning.

Been here for 5 years now, quite literally all-in, with that decision based on reading every single piece of information I could find on GGP. Yet I still hadn't realised just how close we'd come to annihilation with Newcrest trying to shaft us.

There are many posters on here, LSE and X ( prev. Twitter) who added that level of information and understanding and I'm very, very grateful to those people. Those Aussie YouTubers/podcasters have also been invaluable as they have a (seemingly) deeper understanding of what it takes to be a miner than many in the UK and their data-driven predictions have a depth of substance.

I'm certainly in the 'white knight' camp with Mr. Day - love the bloke. He's literally transformed my financial outlook/prospectus for the next 1-10 years and I cannot wait for the official updates we are all expecting during the year.

[The Doors]

How interesting to hear Shaun today on Coffee with Samso. He was touching on some of the points we’ve been discussing in this thread and particularly the topic of other metals other than gold and copper. Tungsten is in his own words a significant asset of GGP and we haven’t really spoken of it much previously.

To be reaching out to the US Govt proactively is a pretty bold step and one you wouldn’t undertake without a significant level of belief. If we have something of scale and value which he would reach out to a foreign government about you can be sure he has cleared it with his own higher ups, and in turn with the Aus govt. That is very significant. When would any MD of a mid-cap in Aus send a warm message to the US saying that his company can offer a solution. (I’m sure the guys at GMET will have caught on to this !) And spinning out Greatland Tungsten (as we’ll call it now) would be a nice way to create space for a dividend to be given, but that is perhaps too hopeful in the short term. But he keeps restating he is a dividend kind of guy, so do listen to this softly spoken mantra and dont be too surprised if it can come sooner.

And ICYMI he said there are other metals too at the O’Callaghans which are less significant but will be worth listening out for.

He has also restated what I thought was bullish at first utterance which is 20m Oz at Telfer and 10m Oz at Hav. Even the Wyloo CEO popped up on LinkedIn to reinforce the upside. I can’t believe my own calculations are accurate but the pre-tax and pre-capital income after the various AISCs is USD 40-45 billion ?

And remember also that Shaun says quietly what later turns out to be true - and his comment re AUD 50m max fund raise at ASX listing time is in my view to now be expected, but he also said that bringing such a provable asset to the market may allow for a waiver. He would not have said that if they hadn’t discussed it with ASX. I can almost hear the convo “look, we’ve got so much cash coming in already that we’d be embarrassed to raise funds when it isn’t needed and we are debt-free anyway” so don’t be surprised either if the waiver is given.

Listening to him was a pleasure and he sounded like a man at the top of his game.

[Michael]

Just on this "He has also restated what I thought was bullish at first utterance which is 20m Oz at Telfer and 10m Oz at Hav. "

Ref: Telfer this includes all the gold/copper/silver mined to date as well. So not 20mOz looking ahead, just in total, less what has been mined since the 1970s until now.

[The Doors]

Thanks Michael, for making that clearer
I had wondered...

[Rotherby]

On the subject of the ASX, how does this process work. (This was raised by Michael on X today.)

What does happen? and do we need a few shares to get 'Greatland' away on initial trading, maybe well less than the 50 million AUD mentioned, we will by then just be Greatland, having dropped the gold.

I expect we will have had the Telfer update by the time of the prospectus, the First Quarters figures may come out after the prospectus allowing a small raise with the consolidation may really excite the Australian market, lots of publicity and limited shares, the initial offering to be price controlled in Australia, not sure this can be done.

Over subscripted in Australia would be a real turning point, thereafter the Aussie brokers will have to come to the UK market for the demand created and most of us are not ready to release our shares to the market.

Just my thoughts on the situation, very very happy to have others opinion on these events.

[The Doors]

hi Rotherby,

Probably worth starting a thread on this by itself so that it doesn’t get buried in here.
It’s an important topic and deserves its own spotlight as well as raising some salient questions which we could all do with knowing about
ATB

[Rotherby]

Have started a new thread as advised

[Michael]

On the topic of ASX shares being available for trading (ie. liquidity on the ASX). We probably have 50% or more of the shares now owned by Aussie shareholders so that should provide some liquidity on the ASX, given these shareholders are awake when the ASX trades. I am sure Shaun's London roadshow to explain the process will provide more granular data. It sounds like they are in the midst of finalising all the necessary paperwork and agreements with the ASX itself, on what form the ASX listing will look like, as Shaun mentioned with Samso.