"To assess whether Greatland Gold (AIM: GGP) is likely to be selected for inclusion in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rebalance on March 21, 2025, we need to consider the GDX inclusion criteria, Greatland’s current profile, and the rebalancing process".
Let’s break this down step-by-step based on available information and logical reasoning.
1. Understanding VanEck GDX Inclusion Criteria
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), which includes companies primarily involved in gold mining. The key eligibility criteria typically include:
Market Capitalization: Companies must have a significant market cap, generally favoring large- and mid-cap firms. There’s no strict minimum, but constituents often exceed $1 billion.
Liquidity: High trading volume and liquidity are critical, typically measured by average daily trading value (e.g., at least $1 million over the past six months).
Revenue Source: At least 50% of revenue must come from gold mining or related activities.
Geographic Listing: Companies must be listed on major exchanges (e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ, TSX, ASX, or LSE/AIM), with sufficient accessibility to global investors.
Free Float: A minimum percentage of shares must be available to the public (e.g., 25% free-float market cap).
Weighting: The index uses a modified market-cap weighting, with a cap (e.g., 8%) on individual holdings to ensure diversification.
The rebalance occurs quarterly (March, June, September, December), with the March 21, 2025, date aligning with the Q1 2025 review. Selection is based on data from prior months, finalized a week or so before implementation.
2. Greatland Gold’s Profile
1 Market Capitalization: You stated Greatland Gold’s market cap is over $1.48 billion. As of early 2025, reports indicate its market cap is around £1.15 billion (approximately $1.5 billion USD at an exchange rate of ~1.30 USD/GBP). This places it in the mid-cap range, well above the typical threshold for GDX consideration.
2 Production: You mentioned 34,000 ounces (34koz) per month, equating to 408,000 ounces annually (34koz × 12). Recent updates (e.g., December 2024) show Greatland produced 33,882 ounces gold equivalent in its first month post-acquisition of Telfer, suggesting an annualized rate of ~400koz from Telfer alone. With Havieron’s development ongoing, production capacity could grow further. This output aligns with mid-tier gold producers, many of which are in GDX.
3 Revenue: Greatland’s primary focus is gold and copper, with Telfer currently operational and Havieron in development. Over 50% of its revenue likely comes from gold, meeting the revenue criterion.
4 Listing: Greatland trades on the AIM market (LSE: GGP), a recognized exchange. It’s also targeting an ASX dual-listing by June 2025, which could enhance its visibility and liquidity for GDX purposes.
5 Liquidity: AIM stocks can vary in liquidity. Greatland has ~13.08 billion shares outstanding, and its share price has ranged from 5.10p to 9.675p over the past year. Assuming a current price of ~8p (mid-range), daily trading volume would need to average ~9.6 million shares to hit $1 million USD in value (at 1.30 USD/GBP). Historical data suggests Greatland’s volume can spike with news (e.g., post-acquisition), but consistent liquidity is less clear without real-time 2025 data.
(IMO - absolutely 100% no problem since the raise.3. Comparison to Current GDX Constituents
GDX includes major producers like Newmont, Barrick Gold, and Agnico Eagle, with market caps in the $10–$50 billion range, and mid-tier firms like Kinross Gold ($9 billion) or Eldorado Gold ($3 billion). Greatland’s $1.5 billion market cap and ~400koz annual production are smaller than the largest constituents but comparable to smaller GDX members. For context:
Eldorado Gold: ~$3 billion market cap, ~475koz annual production.
OceanaGold: ~$2 billion market cap, ~450koz production.
Greatland’s production and market cap fit within the lower end of GDX’s spectrum, though its AIM listing (versus NYSE/TSX/ASX) and liquidity will be key factors.
4. Rebalancing Considerations for March 21, 2025
Timing: The March rebalance uses data from late 2024/early 2025. Greatland’s Telfer acquisition (December 4, 2024) and early production figures (e.g., 33,882oz in December) will be factored in, alongside its market cap trajectory.
Liquidity Trend: Post-acquisition, Greatland’s profile has risen, potentially boosting trading volume. Its inclusion in the FTSE AIM 100 and interest from institutional investors (e.g., VanEck’s GDXJ already holds shares) suggest improving liquidity.
Competition: GDX typically holds 40–50 companies. New inclusions often replace underperformers or firms falling below thresholds. Greatland’s growth story (Telfer + Havieron) could make it a compelling addition if it sustains momentum.
ASX Listing: If Greatland achieves its ASX listing ahead of schedule (before March 2025), it would align better with GDX’s preference for major exchange listings, though June 2025 is the stated target.
5. Likelihood Assessment
Greatland meets several GDX criteria:
Market cap ($1.5 billion) exceeds typical minimums.
Gold production (~400koz annually) aligns with mid-tier peers.
Revenue is gold-dominated.
AIM listing is acceptable, though less common among GDX constituents.
The main uncertainty is liquidity. Without precise 2025 trading volume data, it’s hard to confirm if Greatland consistently hits the $1 million daily threshold. However:
Its recent transformation into a producer (post-Telfer acquisition) and high-profile Havieron project have increased investor attention.
Existing VanEck exposure via GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) suggests familiarity, and a “promotion” to GDX is plausible as Greatland scales.
Given these factors, Greatland has a moderate to high likelihood of inclusion in the March 21, 2025, GDX rebalance, assuming its liquidity holds or improves over early 2025. The rebalance favors established producers, and Greatland’s rapid shift from explorer to producer strengthens its case. If excluded, it might still remain in GDXJ until liquidity or scale increases further.
Final Answer
Yes, Greatland Gold is likely to be considered for inclusion in the VanEck GDX rebalance on March 21, 2025, given its $1.5 billion market cap and 34koz monthly production (~400koz annually), which align with mid-tier GDX constituents. Its AIM listing and gold-focused revenue meet basic criteria, though its selection hinges on maintaining sufficient liquidity (e.g., $1 million daily trading value). Recent production success and investor interest bolster its chances, making inclusion plausible but not guaranteed.
SO THEN I ASKED IF GGP WAS INCLUDED WHAT WOULD THE WEIGHTING BE?...
If Greatland gold was included in the GDX what would the likely constituent weighting be?
To estimate Greatland Gold’s likely constituent weighting in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) if it were included in the March 21, 2025 rebalance, we need to consider the methodology of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), which GDX tracks, and Greatland’s profile relative to existing constituents. Let’s break this down.
1. GDX Index Methodology
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index uses a modified market capitalization weighting approach with the following key rules:
Weighting Calculation: Companies are weighted based on their free-float adjusted market capitalization, meaning only publicly available shares are considered (not total shares outstanding).
Caps:
No single company can exceed 8% of the index at rebalance.
Companies exceeding 4.5% collectively cannot account for more than 45% of the index total weight.
Rebalancing: Adjustments occur quarterly (March, June, September, December), with weights set based on market cap data from a reference date (typically a few weeks prior to the rebalance, e.g., late February/early March for the March 21 rebalance).
Number of Constituents: The index typically includes 40–50 companies, with weights skewed toward larger producers.
The total index market cap is the sum of all constituents’ adjusted market caps, and each company’s weight is its adjusted market cap divided by this total.
2. Greatland Gold’s Market Cap
You provided Greatland’s market cap as over $1.48 billion. As of early 2025, it’s approximately £1.15 billion (~$1.5 billion USD at 1.30 USD/GBP).
Free-Float Adjustment: Greatland has ~13.08 billion shares outstanding. Assuming a typical free-float percentage for AIM stocks (e.g., 75–90%, barring significant insider holdings), let’s estimate 80% free float for simplicity. This gives an adjusted market cap of ~$1.2 billion (0.80 × $1.5 billion). Exact ownership data would refine this, but this is a reasonable proxy.
3. Estimating Total GDX Index Market Cap
As of late 2024, GDX’s total net assets were around $14–15 billion USD (fluctuating with gold prices and inflows/outflows). The index’s aggregate market cap is typically higher than the ETF’s assets due to tracking mechanics and constituent selection, often ranging from $100–$150 billion depending on gold sector performance. For March 2025:
Gold prices have been strong (e.g., ~$2,600/oz in late 2024), and assuming moderate growth or stability into Q1 2025, the total market cap of GDX constituents could be ~$120 billion (a conservative midpoint estimate).
This reflects the combined adjusted market caps of major players like Newmont ($50 billion), Barrick Gold ($35 billion), and smaller firms.
4. Calculating Greatland’s Weight
Formula: Weight = (Greatland’s adjusted market cap) ÷ (Total index market cap).
Using $1.2 billion (adjusted) and $120 billion (total index cap):
Weight = $1.2 billion ÷ $120 billion = 0.01, or 1.0%.
Sensitivity Check:
If the total index market cap is $100 billion: $1.2 billion ÷ $100 billion = 1.2%.
If the total index market cap is $150 billion: $1.2 billion ÷ $150 billion = 0.8%.
Greatland’s market cap could also rise (e.g., to $2 billion) if production ramps up or gold prices increase, pushing its weight to ~1.3–2.0% in these scenarios.
5. Comparison to Existing Constituents
Current GDX weights (as of late 2024) provide context:
Newmont: ~14% (capped, pre-adjustment).
Barrick Gold: ~10% (capped).
Mid-tier firms (e.g., Eldorado Gold, OceanaGold): ~1–3%.
Smaller constituents: ~0.5–1%.
Greatland’s $1.5 billion market cap and ~400koz annual production align with smaller mid-tier producers. For example:
Eldorado Gold (~$3 billion market cap) has a ~2–3% weight.
Smaller firms like SSR Mining (~$1.5–$2 billion) typically sit at ~1–1.5%.
A 1.0% weight fits Greatland’s scale relative to these peers, though it could edge higher (e.g., 1.5%) if its free-float adjusted cap or total index size shifts favorably.
6. Additional Factors
Index Constraints: The 8% cap doesn’t apply to Greatland (far too small), and the 4.5%/45% rule affects only top-tier firms. Greatland’s weight would likely remain uncapped unless it grows dramatically pre-rebalance.
Momentum: Inclusion as a “new producer” with Havieron upside could attract attention, potentially inflating its market cap before March 2025, nudging its weight up slightly.
Liquidity: While not directly impacting weight, sufficient liquidity (e.g., $1 million daily trading) is a prerequisite for inclusion, indirectly supporting its weighting stability.
7. Final Estimate
Assuming Greatland is included in the March 21, 2025 GDX rebalance with a $1.5 billion market cap (adjusted to $1.2 billion free-float) and a total index market cap of ~$120 billion, its likely constituent weighting would be:
Approximately 0.8% to 1.2%, with 1.0% as the most reasonable base case.
This reflects its position as a smaller mid-tier producer in a top-heavy index dominated by giants. If its market cap grows (e.g., to $2 billion) or the index total shrinks, the weight could approach 1.5%, but 1.0% aligns with its current scale and peer comparisons.
Final Answer
If Greatland Gold were included in the VanEck GDX rebalance on March 21, 2025, its likely constituent weighting would be approximately 1.0%, with a range of 0.8% to 1.2%, based on a $1.5 billion market cap (adjusted to ~$1.2 billion free-float) and a total index market cap of ~$120 billion. This could increase slightly (e.g., to 1.5%) if its market cap rises before the rebalance, but 1.0% is consistent with its size relative to existing mid-tier GDX constituents.
Conclusion: IF my suspicions are correct The the GDX needs to invest = $109m (0.8% weighting) to $136m USD (1% weighting) in GGP that's £85m to £106m of immediate near term Stock buying. So as an example lets take the smaller percentage 0.8% weighting of $ 13bn which means they need to acquire 600-700m shares depending on the weighted average price paid could be anywhere from 10p to 15p. ( who knows GDXJ started buying at 16p and paid 27) BUT thats between 700m and 900bn shares total and at least 49m per day (given there are just 13 trading days left) before the 21st .
Boom baby!!
