Lassonde Curve

[Element79A]

Hi All,

Been in since 2020, and survived the post 2020 blues. Have been adding to my position from 6p recently.

As the situation appears to be picking up I have done some research and came across the Lassonde curve. Common sense, may point to the beginning of the second curve. I asked Grok to explain where GGP was on the chart. It came back with this :

The Lassonde Curve is a conceptual model that illustrates the typical lifecycle of a mining company's value, from exploration through development to production. It was developed by Pierre Lassonde to show how a company's market valuation tends to fluctuate based on its stage in the mining process. The curve generally includes the following phases:

Exploration (Concept Phase): Value rises with early discoveries and excitement about potential.
Pre-Feasibility/Feasibility (Development Phase): Value peaks as resources are defined and economic viability is assessed, but it may dip due to uncertainty or funding needs.
Construction Phase: Value often declines (the "valley of death") as capital expenditures rise and production is not yet generating cash flow.
Production Phase: Value increases again as the mine begins generating revenue and profits.
To determine where Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) sits on the Lassonde Curve as of March 21, 2025, we need to assess its current operational status based on available information.

Greatland Gold operates the Telfer gold-copper mine in Western Australia, which it fully acquired from Newmont on December 4, 2024. Telfer is already in production, with Greatland reporting 33,882 ounces of gold equivalent produced in the 27 days from acquisition to December 31, 2024. This indicates that Telfer is firmly in the Production Phase, where the company is generating revenue from an operational mine. On the Lassonde Curve, this would place Telfer on the upward slope following the construction phase, as cash flow begins to stabilize and grow.

Simultaneously, Greatland is advancing the Havieron gold-copper project, also in the Paterson Province of Western Australia. Havieron is a world-class deposit discovered by Greatland in 2018, and as of mid-2023, it was described as being about two years into a three-year construction program, with production targeted for 2024. By March 21, 2025, assuming no significant delays, Havieron is likely nearing completion of construction or transitioning into early production. If construction is complete and production has begun, Havieron would also be entering the Production Phase. However, if it is still in the final stages of construction, it would be in the Construction Phase, near the bottom of the "valley of death," just before the value begins to rise with revenue generation.

Given Greatland's dual focus:

Telfer is clearly in the Production Phase, contributing immediate cash flow and placing this segment of the company on the upward trajectory of the Lassonde Curve.
Havieron is likely transitioning from the Construction Phase to the Production Phase, depending on its exact status as of March 2025. Without precise updates beyond late 2024, it’s reasonable to infer that it’s either at the cusp of production (late Construction Phase) or just beginning to produce (early Production Phase).
Since Greatland Gold’s valuation reflects both assets, the company as a whole is likely positioned near the transition from the Construction Phase to the Production Phase on the Lassonde Curve. Telfer’s production provides a stable base, while Havieron’s imminent or early production suggests the company is emerging from the "valley of death" and moving toward sustained value growth. This mixed status aligns with a period where investor interest typically begins to rise again as operational risks decrease and revenue potential becomes more tangible.

For a precise placement, Havieron’s exact production status as of today would be critical. If it’s fully operational, Greatland is more firmly in the Production Phase; if not, it’s still climbing out of the Construction Phase dip. Based on the trajectory and recent milestones (e.g., Telfer’s output and Havieron’s advanced development), Greatland Gold is most likely ascending the Production Phase slope of the Lassonde Curve as of March 21, 2025.

Yes, it's AI, and Yes it would need to be fed more data in. I just wanted other people to have a human think and their thoughts on where we are in the chart?

Thanks All,

Element79

[jecsggp]

Not sure how it can be used to reflect to the recent major changes in the company in the case of GGP. Maybe we have left out the construction phase altogether.

J

Hi All,

Been in since 2020, and survived the post 2020 blues. Have been adding to my position from 6p recently.

As the situation appears to be picking up I have done some research and came across the Lassonde curve. Common sense, may point to the beginning of the second curve. I asked Grok to explain where GGP was on the chart. It came back with this :

The Lassonde Curve is a conceptual model that illustrates the typical lifecycle of a mining company's value, from exploration through development to production. It was developed by Pierre Lassonde to show how a company's market valuation tends to fluctuate based on its stage in the mining process. The curve generally includes the following phases:

Exploration (Concept Phase): Value rises with early discoveries and excitement about potential.
Pre-Feasibility/Feasibility (Development Phase): Value peaks as resources are defined and economic viability is assessed, but it may dip due to uncertainty or funding needs.
Construction Phase: Value often declines (the "valley of death") as capital expenditures rise and production is not yet generating cash flow.
Production Phase: Value increases again as the mine begins generating revenue and profits.
To determine where Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) sits on the Lassonde Curve as of March 21, 2025, we need to assess its current operational status based on available information.

Greatland Gold operates the Telfer gold-copper mine in Western Australia, which it fully acquired from Newmont on December 4, 2024. Telfer is already in production, with Greatland reporting 33,882 ounces of gold equivalent produced in the 27 days from acquisition to December 31, 2024. This indicates that Telfer is firmly in the Production Phase, where the company is generating revenue from an operational mine. On the Lassonde Curve, this would place Telfer on the upward slope following the construction phase, as cash flow begins to stabilize and grow.

Simultaneously, Greatland is advancing the Havieron gold-copper project, also in the Paterson Province of Western Australia. Havieron is a world-class deposit discovered by Greatland in 2018, and as of mid-2023, it was described as being about two years into a three-year construction program, with production targeted for 2024. By March 21, 2025, assuming no significant delays, Havieron is likely nearing completion of construction or transitioning into early production. If construction is complete and production has begun, Havieron would also be entering the Production Phase. However, if it is still in the final stages of construction, it would be in the Construction Phase, near the bottom of the "valley of death," just before the value begins to rise with revenue generation.

Given Greatland's dual focus:

Telfer is clearly in the Production Phase, contributing immediate cash flow and placing this segment of the company on the upward trajectory of the Lassonde Curve.
Havieron is likely transitioning from the Construction Phase to the Production Phase, depending on its exact status as of March 2025. Without precise updates beyond late 2024, it’s reasonable to infer that it’s either at the cusp of production (late Construction Phase) or just beginning to produce (early Production Phase).
Since Greatland Gold’s valuation reflects both assets, the company as a whole is likely positioned near the transition from the Construction Phase to the Production Phase on the Lassonde Curve. Telfer’s production provides a stable base, while Havieron’s imminent or early production suggests the company is emerging from the "valley of death" and moving toward sustained value growth. This mixed status aligns with a period where investor interest typically begins to rise again as operational risks decrease and revenue potential becomes more tangible.

For a precise placement, Havieron’s exact production status as of today would be critical. If it’s fully operational, Greatland is more firmly in the Production Phase; if not, it’s still climbing out of the Construction Phase dip. Based on the trajectory and recent milestones (e.g., Telfer’s output and Havieron’s advanced development), Greatland Gold is most likely ascending the Production Phase slope of the Lassonde Curve as of March 21, 2025.

Yes, it's AI, and Yes it would need to be fed more data in. I just wanted other people to have a human think and their thoughts on where we are in the chart?

Thanks All,

Element79

[The Doors]

I reckon most of us feel we are now on the second upward slope of Lassonde which we’ve been talking about for some time.

What makes me think we are riding the second ascent is more to do with Telfer. The RNS this week and why it excluded gives every reason for the uplift in resource there to nudge us up Lassonde. After all, it’s a working mine, in production. It’s a jump up the Lassonde and will only increase the ascent when the next resource estimate for Telfer is firmed up. PLUS the not-yet-included resource zones will be added.

At this point Grok can be excused being confused about Hav. It is currently part of a 2027/28 higher leg of the Lassonde ascent.

We have phase after phase of the rise to come. We’re out of the valley of death imo and about to get several altitude nosebleeds. Buckle in.

[The Doors]

I reckon most of us feel we are now on the second upward slope of Lassonde which we’ve been talking about for some time.

What makes me think we are riding the second ascent is more to do with Telfer. The RNS this week and what it excluded gives every reason for the uplift in resource there to nudge us up Lassonde. After all, it’s a working mine, in production. It’s a jump up the Lassonde and will only increase the ascent when the next resource estimate for Telfer is firmed up. PLUS the not-yet-included resource zones will be added.

At this point Grok can be excused being confused about Hav. It is currently part of a 2027/28 higher leg of the Lassonde ascent.

We have phase after phase of the rise to come. We’re out of the valley of death imo and about to get several altitude nosebleeds. Buckle in.

[Rotherby]

We are now in the same position as any other producing miner.

Producing
Developing know resources
Investigating suspected resources.

The only difference is that we do not YET have a track record of operating our mine for the market to see.
But it will not be a long time, after two more quarterly results,.
If we have done what we say we will do/or better,
the markets will then gain confidence that we will achieve or over achieve what we tell the market.

So we have many rerates between now and the Havieron FS.

My reading is
April Q1 results
May prospectus for ASX.
April 6 drills turning
June Telfer update
June list on ASX, with secondary listing in London.
July Q2 results
H2 Havieron FS

This is not the end
new drill results
Quarterly results
and more.......

[wildbill99]

We have phase after phase of the rise to come. We’re out of the valley of death imo and about to get several altitude nosebleeds. Buckle in.

Talk dirty to me like that, and I might have to buy you dinner

[The Doors]

Haha!
Next year Rodney we’ll be millionaires
(Not investment advice, please consult a nosebleed specialist before boarding this Lassonde mountain funicular)

[Aiming2please]

Now that is a great cure for erectile dysfunction