GGPChat

Could we create a Google Sheets for this? Locked and updated for people to view? I don't mind setting one up.

We have been collating the data for some time, it is possible there already is one.

Cheers Dip

Miller wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:40 pm Could we create a Google Sheets for this? Locked and updated for people to view? I don't mind setting one up.

No need. All Ortex data can be downloaded into a CSV and nice graphs can be plotted on Ortex itself too.

Example graph with two years’ worth of SP, volume and shares on loan (pink line) data:

Edit: as a note, click on the attachment if on mobile for a clearer view

Interesting graph that nice share

Looks like they are either very confident in the short positions or are happy to keep getting far less bang for their buck for whatever reason

Just a note that Ortex updates will be posted in the following location going forward:

viewtopic.php?p=727#p727

For those who like to browse, it’s Reference Library > Sticky Threads > Ortex Data: GGP Shares on Loan etc.

That all leads to 27.43m shares actually being used for shorting, ie the 40.95% of the 66.99m on loan.

GoGreen1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:57 pm That all leads to 27.43m shares actually being used for shorting, ie the 40.95% of the 66.99m on loan.

Hi GoGreen1, the utilisation rate of 40.95% means the 66.99m on loan is 40.95% of the total shares available for loan i.e. there are 163.59m shares available for loan.

Dip posted some definitions from Ortex on the first page which are useful.

20.35m is the reported short by JPM Asset Management and they have to report when their short positions increases by 0.1%. This means they have 0.5% - 0.59% to play with which is c. 4m shares they could short without reporting.

There are also multiple actors at play here, and due to reporting thresholds, we will never truly know how many shorts there are, or what the deployment rate is.

Based on the action following the Sprott ETF selling, I would be relatively confident that the deployment rate is high, otherwise why was there a 6m trade on 27th May which corresponded with a decrease in shares on loan.

Hi JC yes I used Dips post but obv did the calculation the wrong way round as you say! Old age is creeping on….

Gratitude wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:02 pm Looks like they are either very confident in the short positions or are happy to keep getting far less bang for their buck for whatever reason

This is my only real concern. If I was going to short a company (which I wouldn’t), It would not be one with such amazing prospects. I would like to know who is really behind the shorting and why. It does feel a bit sinister.
Can anyone put my mind at rest? I am happy to wait for results but am wary of this feeling of manipulation.

Or, apart from the short positions taken at a higher level by the instos and or/their HNW clients the rest are some PI chancers.

We know we have multiple actors here and it's feasible that, given what is reported and is happening that there are PIs at that game. In fact, i would say its a high probability. Now those guys will not have the same facility, back up as the aforementioned. So they need to rebalance regularly for fear of getting a burnt hand.

So, it's a bit like a bully in the playground. They keep at it till they get a kicking. They always do get that kicking, its just a matter of time. They may even all end up turning on each other.

This graph shows the direct relationship between short increase/decrease and GGP Sp and Volume.. I've marked the yellow bars to indicate points of interest...

(1.) This was around 9-15 Aug - after a period of GH selling down his 85m shares ( started selling around 24p and was finished by 17-18p by june-july) Following this, short closes 20m shares suddenly and the SP pops up from 16p to 19p area, over approx 3 weeks, before/into the 1st Juri results 1/sep 21 ( - what did they know?)

SP pops to 22p after PFS announcement and dumps after, but short increases post PFS (2.) Then Massive 17m increase 8-10th Nov - due to inside info of the 14.5p raise leaking out IMO ...? . Roughly Same amount closes around 18/19th Nov, immediately post raise (which stinks ).

They steadily increase as Sp falls from 15p to 12.5p down to 9th Dec where SP jumps on news of the 5% NCM purchase/valuation, where short is initially static - then it increases significantly (4.) on 10th Jan when JPM drops the 18m in 1 trade at 15.5p area ... THe SP continues to rise into the middle if Feb where JPM Short is increased and subsequently forced out into open ( as it increase over 20m).

By March-April-May 22 (5.to 6.) the Sp is fairly static and so it is the short (roughly 42-46m) JPM disappears under 20m… by and later reappears then by May (6.) the markets wobble badly and roll over and the short increased dramatically from 43m up to 65m directly pushing the Sp lower, and IMO targeting the ETFs - Sprott Junior ETF 30th May which sells 22m and they close over 6m. Note the immediate pop in the SP as they close.... then again by (8.) they close 9m into Vaneck's sell but the SP climbs again naturally as new money arrives.

Note the direct and tight correlation between the SP popping and the Short position increasing /reducing from (6.) to (8.)

Suggests to me when the do close the SP will move UP significantly… unless they are offered significant liquidity (like ETF selling).

Good analysis, thanks Hydro. Not just ETFs though……. need to watch out for Pacific Trends offloading some or all of their shares. Anyone have any intel about their intentions?

Really hope SD can get some kind of lock in arrangement agreed or perhaps vary the terms, maybe part cash / part shares or even deferral in whole or part for more shares until we’ve cashflow. GLA Mel

It is good to read Hydrogens posts again.
I am still on a steep learning curve regarding shorting-and GGP SP price manipulation. My post today on LSE (thanks to Jiffybags previous help)/guidance seemed generally well received. With regards to the store of available shares for shorters to sell to manipulate the SP that I mentioned I would concur with Boxa1511 that they are likely to be used in this way. It is a pity that a relatively small section of GGP shareholders can have such a disproportionate effect on the SP of GGP but we have to live with it and keep our faith in GGP.

spadesAspade wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:43 pm Pacific Trends are a bit like an investment company.
They actively go out and seek and secure new tenement blocks, for then to sell the rights to those tenements in exchange for a capital reward in cash plus a brucie bonus of shares if the tenement is ever mined.

They have similar deals with other junior miners all over Australia.

They have also just become a junior miner themselves, with the incorporation of Flynn Gold pty, whose main exploration licences are in Tasmania.

Mmmmm I wonder which company Shaun Day might have been talking about when he suggested doing JV’s on our Tasmanian projects.

PACIFIC TRENDS RESOURCES HOLDINGS PTY LTD appear to be a private company - and therefore very hard to find any information about their directors or financial statements.
As SaS has said, a new public company was formed after IPO - Flynn Gold https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210921/ ... ykxnh8.pdf formerly known as PACIFIC TRENDS RESOURCES TASMANIA PTY LT. They raised $10m and listed on ASX on 17/6/21 $0.20 per share - now at $0.10.
One of the directors of the new company is Samuel Garrett - who was also a director of the PCT Resources Holdings cpy, and joined ECR minerals as a director in June 21 - https://www.branduk.net/tag/pacific-tre ... y-limited/

Anyway - in the future they will gain 145 million shares in GGP - so £14 million at todays prices. They would have many options - hold, sell and pay dividend to private shareholders, or sell and invest money in the business. Impossible to predict what they will do. IMHO.