Sprott initiates research on GGP - Shaun Day

[_J_C_]

The report tells us what it expects in terms of tonnage after the SLOs has started and with a second decline to increase tonnage.
It stipulates 9MozAu.
Even taking this into consideration it still values it at !7p
What further proof do you need?
Z

All mining broker/analyst reports will state values (eg. tonnage, etc.) for the various stages in the mining/production process, over a period of time in the future. However, I've never known one that gives a price target for the END of that period of time, only for the usual 12 months, or other period, if stated.

Maybe someone can find out from Sprott for sure?

I asked Brock about a timescale for the 17p, but won’t entertain a response unless you are II.

[Mremc2]

17p I took it to mean ahead of 2024; nevertheless it is not higher than the first peak on Lassonde curve so the waiting goes on longer than I had hoped. Somebody please show me where I have got it wrong.

"Buy rating: 17p PT diluted for options. Key price drivers
are drilling / MRE / 4Q22 BFS / debt funding, all ahead of 2024 production".

[DipSard]

17p I took it to mean ahead of 2024; nevertheless it is not higher than the first peak on Lassonde curve so the waiting goes on longer than I had hoped. Somebody please show me where I have got it wrong.

"Buy rating: 17p PT diluted for options. Key price drivers
are drilling / MRE / 4Q22 BFS / debt funding, all ahead of 2024 production".

There are plenty of upside scenarios and catalysts if you read the Broker report comprehensively and over time as these play out and risk decreases we should see that broker rating markedly improve.
This broker report is made from available data at current time and assumptions based on those for the most part.

[Academy]

The 17p is a valuation on a project basis. Ie of Havieron.In terms of timing they stating the value as at build start date. "asset value 1x npv project @ build start"

[_J_C_]

The 17p is a valuation on a project basis. Ie of Havieron.In terms of timing they stating the value as at build start date. "asset value 1x npv project @ build start"

We need to determine what “build start” is. Decision to mine, decline / early works infrastructure or production related.

[_J_C_]

The 17p is a valuation on a project basis. Ie of Havieron.In terms of timing they stating the value as at build start date. "asset value 1x npv project @ build start"

We need to determine what “build start” is. Decision to mine, decline / early works infrastructure or production related.

Apologies replying to myself, but this would infer we have already passed build start and as such, 17p applies now. Any thoughts?

[Costa]

Did we just go around in a circle there?

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

The 17p is a valuation on a project basis. Ie of Havieron.In terms of timing they stating the value as at build start date. "asset value 1x npv project @ build start"

We need to determine what “build start” is. Decision to mine, decline / early works infrastructure or production related.

Apologies replying to myself, but this would infer we have already passed build start and as such, 17p applies now. Any thoughts?


40B03EE0-96D7-436E-942F-24FCA8E56A1E.jpeg

I would say it has already started.

[Bamps21]

To me this 9mt pa plan isn’t feasible .
This plan is the 3mt already planned plus 6mt from a 50% reserve increase plus the SE deeps , plus high pods in the Northern Corridor and EB.
There’s not enough high grade ore that would produce a 9mt plan at the higher levels.

Only works with a conveyor Decline, this would need to be from the 1300m of ore, that is 1700m deep. That’s a Decline length of c9.5km.
Plus a crusher station.

They are talking about this starting in 2024 and building up to 2026, this is too soon it won’t happen.
Also bulk caving 2026 not a chance.

To get to the 17p they’ve added the 3mt operation and a 9mt operation, where in fact we have a 3m + 6m combined and they’ve also added in the 6m bulk caving as well.
I can’t say whether this was very well thought out or not.
It takes no notice of the fact First Ore will be very high grade and high tonnage with high revenues.

[Redirons]

That’s great Bamps - can you therefore provide a view as to what SP you believe Sprott should (could) have stated? Thanks.

[zoros]

Evening Bamps,
To put Us out of our misery, would you be kind enough to speak on our behalf about this latest “deep dive” (by Sprott), to Shaun on Thursday, namely:
1. Does Shaun support these findings?
2. When does Shaun believe the 17p share price recommendation by Sprott best represent a time frame in the project.
3. Is the Sprott recommended $272 USD & $136 USD being the current attributable value of the resource ounces……the price of gold in the ground and not their final recoverable PoG per ounce.

Much appreciated in advance,
Z

[Bamps21]

Hi Redirons
I’m not the right person to ask about a realistic share price but that chart from 2020 seems more realistic

Hi Zoros
These questions need to be in the webinar, unfortunately I can’t get to London early enough to see it.
I’m sure these questions will be asked at some point.

I’m not really interested in broker target prices, more importantly my interest lies in the mining plan and how they will achieve getting out more than 3mt.
Instead of a conveyor I would like to see a haulage shaft go in and take pressure off the trucking
1/ to achieve the 3mt pa plan
2/ to be able to get more than the 3mt plan
3/ Provide more ventilation

I still have a concern that trucking 3m ton through the Decline is unachieveable especially as it gets deeper

[Bamps21]

My thoughts on First ore production:-

The Western Front zone 1 is where the first production will come from.
They are targeting a 70m deep zone split into 2 levels of about 30m.
The top 30m contains the first section of HAD005 one of our best holes.
There’s some phenomenal gold and copper grades
within it.
Gold grades above 10g/t
11.23
64.1
32
103
211
12

Copper grades over 4%
10.42%
5.4%
8.5%
4%
5.3%
4.1%

You can see the high % of copper suggesting Chalcopyrites and bornites are present.
Chalcopyrites have a specific gravity of c4.1
In the first stoping tunnel targeting this high grade ore it could be 100 metres long x 15m x 30m high in total .
Volume is roughly = 45,000 cubic metres
Multiplied by a normal sg of rock = 45k x 3 = 135,000 ton
Multiply with an sg of 4.1 = 184,500 ton

If we say an average of 5g/t x 135,000 = 675,000 •/•31.1 = 21,705 gold ounces

Or 5g/t x 184,500 = 922,500 •/• 31.1 = 29,662 ounces

Therefore there is an increase of 50,000ton of ore if there’s Chalcopyrites insitu for the same volume

There’s around 7,400 ton of copper using the 4.1 sg which is 2,000 ton more than a 3sg.

Revenues for 25% ownership :-
Gold $13.5m
Copper $16.6m

= c$30m revenue less costs

That’s $300,000 per metre in the first stope

Can you see now why I think the AISC will be low in this first zone?

[Bamps21]

I just posted a sketch of HAD005 in the Havieron section.
On it you can see the high grade ore right at the top

[Bamps21]

A 3mt plan will need 137 trucks carrying 60 ton per day everyday.
5.5 an hour

Shaun was saying NCM want to change to 40 ton Volvos
That’s 206 truck loads every day or 8 an hour.

Does seem a big ask!

[CanisLycaon]

Shaun Day will not specifically discuss any broker price target and if/when it's likely, or if/when achievable.

It's clearly price sensitive information and not permitted, even more especially now, when he's in a crucial negotiation with Newcrest Mining over the 5% FMV..

[Bamps21]

This is more realistic without a 9mt plan or 6mt bulk cave

[College Yard]

Zoros wrote: "Time to take a deep breath and reassess one’s goals and ambitions, I suspect." Yes - it's a different kind of investment from what it was in 2020.

What happened to the share price in 2020 was speculation. The return to these levels is logical and the logical thing to have done at the time would have been to recognise it. In my opinion, it's not going to happen again driven by the same general enthusiasm. The numbers don't support that level of pricing in the short term and - it's possible - a lot of investors are no longer interested.

However, the aspect of the Sprott initiation note that interested me most - as an investor not a would-be geologist - is the emphasis put on SD's track record and potential to build a Northern Star mark 2 over a longer term.

In my opinion, there are companies to look for short term speculative returns - what some posters call 'dream shares' but most of the time turn out to be nightmares - and there are companies to look for long term investment. For me, the note has called time on imagining speculative-level returns driven by surprise news or short-covering etc. But it has convinced me of the case for long term - I am thinking several years - investment.

[zoros]

College yard, then I assume you have automatically taken into account that Ggp@Hav might not be there in a couple of years??
NCM won’t carry a junior for the fun of it (imo).
Z

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

College yard, then I assume you have automatically taken into account that Ggp@Hav might not be there in a couple of years??
NCM won’t carry a junior for the fun of it (imo).
Z

Shaun says this is a medium to long-term investment. - and no guarantees we will be a junior forever...