GGPChat

Frolinde wrote: ↑Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:52 pm Hi All,

First post here. Long time lurker though.

I have been a GGP fanboy for a long time, but find it hard to maintain the firm belief i once had. Main reason being that "the big boys" keep the company in a stranglehold and i haven't seen a succesfull escape attempt from Shaun Day. The stranglehold results in reactions instead of a more pro-active approach from the company. Sure, in hindsight it is easy to determine the strategy that would have worked, but the lack of boldness in how Shaun Day addresses the challenges makes one wonder. Me at least. First some observations / thoughts;

* The share price is obviously totally controlled by one or a few big stakeholders;
* Every upward price action in the last 18 months or so has been met by controlled selling;
* I always thought this was done by (affiliates of) NCM to deprive GGP of funding possibilities and scoop up the 5% on the cheap;
* But now also see a scenario where NCM, perhaps with others (Tribeca, Sprott?), try to squeeze further and try to achieve a low takeover offer;
* The fact that NCM has not bought the 5% ("we will get full ownership later anyway") and that this dilution only increases holdings of institutions point towards such a scenario;
* Rest assure that the bigger players have other strategies in mind than ours (selling GGP shares at 50 pence or above);
* If share holdings of the bigger institutions will breach certain thresholds they will increasingly have more power to steer GGP in their desired direction;
* Sprott has correctly pointed out in one of their GGP updates that the significant private investor holding in GGP is troublesome for a NCM takeover;
* In my opinion NCM already tried (and failed) to takeover GGP once (this was the run-up to 35 pence) and are now deploying a different approach;
* Driving the share price lower is one tactic, as is the seemingly organised FUD and the complete downplaying of Havieron to scare off more private investors.
* I would not be surprised if NCM would drive up the costs to make sure GGP needs another dilution. They want ore at Telfer as soon as possible, but perhaps will squeeze GGP for a bit longer if they can scoop-up another 10% of GGP votes.
* I would be truly disappointed if, despite Shaun Day plenty mentioning "long term shareholder value", a low ball offer (15-20 pence) of NCM would be accepted in the coming months.


Is there something we can do to make sure GGP is not sold for a bargain price? And do we have (or can we get) all the info to asses the likeliness of such a scenario?

Some questions;

* How is governance arranged within GGP? Has anybody seen the articles of association?
* Is there anybody that has access to a good source (Bloomberg terminal?) of GGP holdings?
* Is there somebody with more knowledge on the dealings of the bigger shareholders? How tightly is Sprott connected to NCM? Can they be trusted despite their recent negative comments? Is Tribeca connected to NCM? Others?
* Shaun Day seems trustworthy, but is he? There is very little skin in the game for him and for example an offer to replace Sandeep at NCM would be very tempting. Any comments on this?

So a pretty long post and maybe not pointy enough to get my concerns across. Your feedback is highly appreciated and i would for one be a proponent of having a formal section on this beautiful forum that gives acces to holding reports, articles of association, etc. Many thanks to all that have helped to get this site up and running. Hopefully we can be a bit more upbeat in the near future on our investment in GGP.