GGPChat

And I think point made today with that rns, no timelines for when the aquifer problem will be sorted or when the decline will recommence

Is there any way of stopping idiots posting on what was a great information board?

Not that it matters CK but I have never called him the Messiah - you are very free and loose with misquoting me which I do not appreciate. I’ve learnt not to disrespect people due to previous prejudices - you have not. I wish all Greatland shareholders good luck, you included.

Guys I honestly think this is about sequencing. GGPs biggest problem has been being 'taken advantage of' as the minority JV partner. A victim of lack of control... I think the reality and effect of this weakened position shocked us all. Basically, we expected Newcrest to play fair and that didn't happen.

So that brings us to the points you make below.

Could it be this was always all about 'sequence' and getting the right sequence of events to force the hand of the major, without publicly doing anything commercially aggressive? whilst behaving as the responsible, decent party and earning massive commercial respect.

Shaun makes it clear that delivering Havieron was his principal objective, "being a good owner" but probably his biggest barrier was always minority 'control'. He knew this project could potentially look 'marginal' on paper, for a global major like Newmont, at this stage, and so his dream objective - the opportunity to consolidate, emerged only once it became clear NCM had 'gone off the rails' with their own strategy... (where presumably Newmont could see all the bad blood and decided to side step the situation and hand Shaun the reins) .

The hard reality for us is: there is (nor was) no point accelerating the Hav project: Especially, When you are locked in the process of consolidating control, which has, for obvious reasons now become his key objective. Because, that simply meant as shareholders WE would have to pay more for the benefit, as the asset value will have significantly increased. (eg with publication of the DFS, for example - risk down / value up)

I'm also sure the nuances (and complications) and legal details of the existing JV (ie ROLR - or do Newmont own 60% or 70%? - i personally believe it's 70% .. ) and its various amendments, all lend a strong position of leverage to Greatland and will have ALL helped, hopefully, secure excellent terms for us.

Also, as I have previously stated, I strongly believed Newmont probably could NOT sell Havieron to anyone else other than Greatland. NOT easily and almost certainly not without Shaun's direct blessing and approval. So it's no surprise to me we are hearing rumours Northern Star may be involved in a new Hav JV ( being obvious old friends of Shaun).

Once he consolidates ownership only then can HE can finally press the Havieron pedal to the metal.

Not long now folks. Not long at all ... And no doubt, there will be significant new commercial information to digest.

Then, make no mistake, we get to drill and blast our way to 350koz to 450koz of gold equiv or more, whilst unleashing a massive exploration programme across all Greatland tenements.

Shaun is not the messiah - But he is an exceptional strategic operator, navigating a very tricky game of poker - where his hands were more or less tied up behind his back, for 2 of the past 3 years...

AND Now - FINALLY - we get to witness him fully unleashed.

Good luck to all genuine holders. It's been a long time coming. Whoever said discovering and building out one of world's biggest and best gold mines was ever going to be easy...?

“Shaun is not the messiah”, but has he been a very naughty boy though. That is the question ?
Here’s hoping he’s been playing with a straight bat before smashing the ball out the park.

Hydrogen wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 1:20 pm
…
Shaun is not the messiah - But he is an exceptional strategic operator, navigating a very tricky game of poker - where his hands were more or less tied up behind his back, for 2 of the past 3 years...

AND Now - FINALLY - we get to witness him fully unleashed.

…

To misapply another vox-pop historical quote, it is too early to tell.

All to play for though.

Well Francis I would say totally out manoeuvring NCM over the 5% was pretty exceptional

Hydrogen wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:53 pm Well Francis I would say totally out manoeuvring NCM over the 5% was pretty exceptional

Independent valuer said “Price for the 5% is USD60m”

NCM said “Nah - we’ll pass.”

SD (like you!) thought the 5% was worth FAR more. But he wasn’t responsible for determining the valuation, nor for determining NCM’s response. In truth SD was no more than a noisy kid in the back seat as the adults in the front determined the destination and drove the car.

It was a bit more complicated than that Francis, the 5% determination was made with several factors that precluded it from being a true reflection of FMV.

Except from an older post:

The 5% had a few limitations in scope that GGP had to combat to achieve even this modest $60m including but not limited to:

1/ Data cut off for 15/12/21

2/ JVA set very conservative boundaries around such factors as commodity prices upon the valuation methodology to be used but we don't know how severe, just that they existed as per the 'Price Not Value' slide in updated corporate presentation but they were described as very prescriptive

3/ PFS was set as the base for valuation although GGP's MRE 'shifted the paradigm' somewhat , go and look at the MRE and the methods used and the comparisons made to PFS methodology to justify the GGP MRE numbers to help achieve GGP's success - the detailed methodology outside the 'numbers' is very much targeted at a comparative analysis to the PFS
- viewtopic.php?t=127

4/ In addition, go study the Valmin code and the 3 suggested valuation approaches and techniques contained within each and you see the immense ranges created by differing methods and you can see how subjective valuations are, akin to the JORC Code for instance
- viewtopic.php?t=132

5/ Shaun stated the game theory reasoning around the fact that required GGP to come in at the more modest end of their ranges to assure success in the webinar using an Estate Agent analogy due to the fact that the adjudicator had to choose between two valuations VS being able to recommend a value themselves after reviewing both.

What was achieved despite the above by GGP is quite remarkable but it is a PRICE within the strictures of a very prescriptive and restricted exercise NOT a reflection of TRUE VALUE, the information is all out there in the GGP MRE, Valmin Code, latest Corporate Presentation, RNS's and interviews and their transcripts/notes to support the above points.

Full Post:
viewtopic.php?t=365

You really can’t see the forest for the trees can you?

An option price FAR lower than SD was looking for was determined, and NCM still refused to pay it.

Your detailed points about cut-off dates and commodity prices are non sequiturs. If a later cutoff date and higher commodity prices etc had been utilised then the resultant valuation(s) could only have been higher. Are you seriously suggesting that NCM would have gone ahead and bought the 5% if the price was higher?

GGP were outmanoeuvred at the point the option mechanism was agreed. Not SD’s fault, but not something he could do anything meaningful to rectify either. His input in the whole 5% saga was essentially irrelevant.

So what is the point you’re making Francis? I’m not clear.
Thanks in advance

I’ve made two points in this thread:

1. That GGP has a 30% interest in the Hav JV as they have stated in various RNS and presentations, not 40% as was being wishfully surmised by posters here.

2. That SD didn’t really have much if any say in the outcome of the 5% saga, as he had inherited a very weak hand. His handling of the matter hasn’t demonstrated that he is an “exceptional strategic operator” let alone that “totally outmanoeuvred” NCM, as was being wishfully surmised by posters here.

Francis - I think your Point 1. is fairly nefarious. There are few if any true GGPers who ever believed we owned 40% of Hav. It was always around the surprise that we were able to snatch another 5% at a very reasonable price to take our holding to 30%. So I don’t think you are educating anyone by confirming the 30%.
Where you are being rather disingenuous is in your Point 2. as you are totally whitewashing that Shaun inherited a very messy situation and was heading up a complete minnow in GGP whilst negotiating with the Goliath Newcrest headed up by the (accused bully) heavyweight Sandeep Biswas. Many an industry commentator would say Shaun handled himself and GGP’s interests rather impressively to get GGP to where we are now.
If you are invested here (which I question) then you surely must feel more comfortable as to where we sit now rather than the misleading highs Gervaise took us to before baling like a rat up a drainpipe? If not then perhaps you are just yet another disrupter??

Redirons 2
Francis 0

Francis, you know I know exactly what you are… but if you’re going to play the game well - you better not talk total rubbish.. it gives you away.

yes Shaun inherited a bad situation, but he then went about saving this company from being taken over for 3-4p or very cheaply.

The work that went into supporting GGPs proposed $60m price tag for the 5% was tremendous. GGPs pile of documents submitted to the valuation expert was over 2 foot tall. NCM’s at 4 inches high - didn’t stand a chance.

Shaun did that, and he took on Sandeep, and GGPs technical team totally outmatched NCM and won. And saved ggp from being revalued at less than £150m

Now how about contributing something accountable and accurate?

Francis You don't seem to comprehend some key observations, although I understand your original point about the ownership stake that is held currently:

1/ The 5%price determination was not a true FMV albeit it seems to have still served as a price discovery event in some regards to the general market. You seem to understand this TBF but questioning whether GGP did anything remarkable in their valuation submission for the adjudication process and coming out as the team chosen to be closest to FMV as a minnow vs a major.

2/ 99.9% of juniors would not have been able to put up a decent submission in the Option Exercise and presumably NCM's valuation which was probably circa >30% lower might have be selected instead as nearest FMV. This would have left GGP even more vulnerable than they were at the time with the general market ascribing even less of a market value to Havieron.

3/ NCM's strategy seemed to have switched from amenable JV partners to looking to buyout the project and/or GGP - by purchasing the 5% they would in theory have eased the ability for GGP to fund their share of the development costs, which is what I presume was the purpose of the 5% Option Exercise to some extent when originally set up - albeit with questionable terms agreed to by the then GGP team. It always sounded like a great idea until the various terms and conditions agreed to were shared by Shaun once the option exercise was commenced.

4/ By telling the market that taking up the 5% at the GGP valuation price didn't meet their IRR thresholds publicly, NCM seemingly hoped to aid the process of weakening GGP further IMO. I don't think they were predatory from the beginning perhaps, but certainly as the sector sentiment and asset prices made it harder for juniors to obtain funding, some elements within NCM seem to have decided to make the decision to remove GGP from the equation.

You're entitled to your opinion mate, but your manner seems to be more abrasive than presenting a detailed and structured argument for your own views and opinions.

Hi Dip,

Francis is correct here. Entech (external consultant) completed the reserve mine planning for the independent 2022 MRE subsequently used for submission during the 5% exercise. Most juniors use external consultants and GGP did the same.

Your other points are opinion and not 'key observations' to be considered. At best, credit could be given to GGP for ensuring they the funds to pay external consultants for an updated MRE and mine plan. This is routine in the mining industry, especially with juniors.

Don't forget that SD offered 86 million usd for that 5% before discussions started. Nobody knows why Sandeep refused that offer but i presume if they had excepted then the value of GGP would have rocketed up and set a minimum value for GGP. DM

I believe the cash offer to Newcrest for the 5% in advance of the FMV exercise was an example of Shaun's (& the BoD) ability to outplay a corporate beast.

Long may that continue.....