GGPChat

The rumours just seem to keep coming (from all over now). I give it 5 trading days tops -as my best guess: Aud $700m sale price so circa $470m US which is 100% inline with my guesstimate $400-550m - based on $5-600m valuation put on it by Grant Samuals plus a chunky discount to account for the ROLR , those pesky Sink hole dam cracks and any dewater 'delays' and the rather shocking 'JV rudeness premium' Sandeep and his bang out of order Business Development Unit in Melbourne inflicted on GGP - you know who you are. 'Jobless' now, I note.

Any guess at our expected re-rate? Seems like a respectable deal considering there was guesses of $1bn to buy Hav

All speculation so cannot gauge any rerate. A deal perceived poor by the market could in theory rerate us the wrong way. Fingers crossed for the best outcome
MFU

Agree MFU VERY hard to to know - and a lot of moving parts - it breaks into 4/5 key sections AND there will be a lot to digest:

1) The terms of the purchase: how the new ownership of Havieron breaks down, how much in paid by GGP in cash vs how much in GGP paper vs how much divested to a new JV 3rd party like Northern Star or Wyloo vs how much in bank debt or possible royalty (albeit Shaun'S against that)

2) How the GGP DFS lands: The new mine plan and the economics of that - how much Capex required - where that comes from, and how much thats not presently in the current PFS ( that may get added or taken away). The new timescales and NPV of the project.

3) Telfer production and cash flows: THe immediacy and extent to which Telfer goes back into production. The spending thats taken place to upgrade the plant that shiny bits speaks to should help a lot but may preset ramp up changes and Telfer underground v open pit volumes ( thus increasing the likelihood of attracting immediate new investors as a new gold producer)

4) the regulatory framework - Achieving full Havieron environmental permit and mining permits.re

5) future embedded upside whether that be 1) developing a block cave or Sub level cave at Havieron 2) exploration immediately at Telfer or around the Patterson regions (such O'Callagans for example or Scally etc).

I think it's pretty telling that Five Diggers, who basically got their stock for free AND are still major shareholders, holding strong throughout all this gold market turbulence (when they could have sold out months / years ago)

I am told that the DEMIRS (mines regulator) was voluntarily invited up to Telfer last week to have a look at progress on the tails dam, to show good faith and I’d imagine there is full confidence that approval will be given to recommence use of the tails storage (and by extension the plant, which in itself is not under the prohibition notice) as planned, by the middle of September. Interesting coincidence on the timing… being roughly when the expected announcement is widely believed to drop.

No doubt there will be some teething problems given the unprecedented 5 months of downtime, but hopefully nothing too major.

It sounds like the plant will be in great shape!

There is a really big question mark over Telfer’s fixed costs. Shaun will need to get a handle on costs and the previous blowout AISC situation and fairly quickly, so I can see strategic cuts, but I’m also sure he will see that holding onto critical staff and expertise is also crucial.

I gather lot of ‘old school’ contractual ‘perks’ were targeted and removed when northern star took over assets run by majors previously, so I guess that will be in the playbook. There’s also the question on the old NCM “how to mine gold rule book” that will likely get rewritten?

Someone referred to Jimmy Wilson as the “Toe Cutter”… but keeping the show on the road will be paramount!

Shinybits,

I work for a NS O&G operator. We were previously owned by a global supermajor and bought by an independent around 8 years ago.

During the take over period so many rumours swirled around about T's & C's both good and bad. In the end and even now the place mostly runs like it did with the old Major in charge. The new company just adopted everything and carried on.

Any good management will know that the strength of their business lies in the experience of its workforce. Trying to save a few coins by trying to reduce workers T's & C's will hurt in the long run for exactly the reasons you mention. Loss of experience and a lack of F@#k's given by the remaining crew.

I'd doubt the GGP board would be so naïve as to think otherwise.

Hydrogen

Re “Toe Cutter”

Hi you probably know I talk to a few people at Telfer. Some have left for other sites because of job concerns. Those remaining are aware of the number of mines (various commodities but in the main lithium, nickel and some iron ) are being put into care and maintenance. I can confirm SB statement that the workers have been briefed Telfer has been sold but they don’t know who to.
Yesterday one member of the contract staff took up a permanent position as the belief is the part time positions will go first. I hasten to add they are contract auxiliary positions. Another rumour is they’re looking to consolidate the flights as quite often the aircraft are nowhere near even half capacity.

Fingers crossed we get both Telfer and 100% of Havieron it’s been a long haul.

Hi Hopefully -

Yes thanks for keeping shareholders furnished with constant info from your mates at Telfer - its great to have people like you getting the 'word on the decline'.

And Yes - The number of mines and projects being mothballed into care and maintenance - particularly Lithium and Nickel - is getting shocking now - and pretty worrying for the sector, as these skills are critical to the next phase of growth.

What's also emerging to me now is the absolute humdinger embedded strategic value in a fully permitted big mill like Telfer.

I think this fact may well be totally and utterly lost on most GGP shareholders - but believe me, if we did get Telfer for a steal - it's a WHOPPING win for GGP.

Presently, its being widely reported that getting any new permits for new mills and processing facilities in today's regulatory environment, even in WA - the best mining jurisdiction in the word - has just become much, much harder than it used to be. The Permitting delays are absolutely horrendous. It's taking 3-4- even 5 years and several major ore deposits have been abandoned as a consequence because the have failed on permitting process.

https://www.mining.com/regis-resources- ... vt-action/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2CLtaT4rko see about Regis Resources (RRL) McPhillamys project & Silver Mines (SVL), who’ve both had their projects put on indefinite ice following separate government/court permit rulings.

80km used to be considered the previous maximum economic 'trucking distance' for dirt to a mill. But i just recently heard about an agreement for one Western Australian gold producer to truck their ore/dirt just over 160km to the nearest mill with spare capacity, because it was easier and cheaper and quicker to first cash flow, than building their own processing plant. And it wasn't even high grade material - 1.2 g/t roughly i recall

If - and i say if - Shaun has pulled this off and got Telfer thrown in for next to nothing - AND we have access to a fully refurbished mega mill then IMO he has pulled off total blinder for Greatland -

I still in a bit of shock contemplating just what he may have achieved here...

A rerate based on that alone should be epic - but WTF do I know about how this market behaves. I just keep thinking to myself - Havieron is not just a multi decade project - it's a 'multi-generational project'.

Of note, that quote came direct from Callum who remains one of our single biggest private shareholders.

Keep going with the posts, it’s so refreshing to read after all this time. Rumours, speculation or not still good to read with all the crap we have put up with. Great work
It really feels we will know shortly once and for all, which way this is going.

OilMonkey wrote: ↑Sat Sep 07, 2024 6:59 am Shinybits,

I work for a NS O&G operator. We were previously owned by a global supermajor and bought by an independent around 8 years ago.

During the take over period so many rumours swirled around about T's & C's both good and bad. In the end and even now the place mostly runs like it did with the old Major in charge. The new company just adopted everything and carried on.

Any good management will know that the strength of their business lies in the experience of its workforce. Trying to save a few coins by trying to reduce workers T's & C's will hurt in the long run for exactly the reasons you mention. Loss of experience and a lack of F@#k's given by the remaining crew.

I'd doubt the GGP board would be so naïve as to think otherwise.

One of my best mates still works there, and he says the general feeling is pretty good because with a new owner and lots of work done everyone is confident of an ongoing job regardless of the owner. He’s recently bought a new house so would have to be confident to jump in to that.

Thank you for all your insights shinybits, certainly enjoy the level of detail and specificity about various topics we'd really not expect to have usually and likewise to folk like HG and others too for the intel.

As you say the... and I'll also stress as you did unsubstantiated rumours that NEM might lay off all staff and then leave to the new owner to offer employment at perhaps differing and less optimal rates and terms does seem unlikely. Has this ever happened before in your experience in Oz and does the legislation in place around transfers even support this approach being possible?

Some of the planning around the handover by both parties would entail agreeing what to do around this and I'd expect that this kind of strategy wouldn't be considered the best approach by any new owner as could leave some skills gaps and shortage of staff in the near-term - alongside the vast experience of more longer-term staff perhaps being lost altogether.

Also, personally I think we've seen that there are very clear indications that Telfer/Hav are being sold packaged up together. I've shared correspondence in TG/LSE from NEM's Director of IR that this is the intention and others have had similar correspondence to confirm this.

So, I fully expect that if GGP are confirmed as the new owners, that in most likelihood they've managed to secure both Havieron and Telfer as either sole owners or in some form of JV with Wyloo etc. Which is certainly my desired outcome as the timeframes and complexities of GGP building their own facilities doesn't interest me or suit my timeframes.

Hopefully we're not too far away from throwing off the current shackles of uncertainty and finally to see the 'Platform For Growth' Shaun and co. have built start to deliver shareholder value

Just for reference - this was the correspondence received a few months ago confirming plans. Of course as with everything - stated plans can change, but I feel it likely both assets will be sold as planned together.

Some great posts on here recently and the fact they are coming from well connected posters make them especially exciting IMO - keep them coming guys!!

With this news article leak, surely there is too much smoke for this not to be true!

Many congrats Hydro (and Shinybits for adding into it) - you called it right buddy - thank you!!!

So the deal is indeed done - would someone please explain why I shouldn't feel as though I've been f*cked!

Yeah certainly will feel that way tomorrow morning.. but let’s see medium to long term.

Good summation by Charles Archer IMO in article below.

https://miningaim.co.uk/charles-archer- ... g-the-deal

My thoughts were of late that any deal would be technically accretive but time may be required for some to see shareholder value and seems how things have turned out but certainly transformative for GGP.

So now over over to Shaun and co. to deliver from the platform for growth.

Hey shinybits, how are they taking the news down under?

leslieby101 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 5:48 pm So the deal is indeed done - would someone please explain why I shouldn't feel as though I've been f*cked!

Hi Lesley -
Because like a pi tends to - you are looking simply at price of the raise and the dilution. And a 30% discount is tough but that’s now put Newmont as our biggest shareholder and multiplied our Nav by at least 200%.

Possibly 250-300% depending on just how long Telfer can keep producing. Day is clearly absolutely bullish as hell on Telfor remaining in production for many many years from now: I think they can pull out 350 to 400,000 ounces per year then Hell Bells we’re gonna be absolutely flying rerate into the billions with Havieron coming on line.

I think people need to sit back and understand this deal better. There is a lot of other information to consider closely in this transaction, not least the fact that Telfer under new management could be a massive producer for many years still and we just bought it for Bobbins in the dollar.

What you have to get your head around is that this is a completely different beast now

You have to trust that Shaun knows what he’s doing (Australias richest man seems to ) . So I expect a fast recovery in price over the next few months and a massively oversubscribed raise