GGPChat

Meant to add, by getting tighter control of fixed costs will help toward realising higher free cash flow margin taking advantage of the higher forecasted gold price, which will in turn then be able to give far better financial projections.

There' also another real shocking fact here -

You almost have to give our heads a wobble when you think that when Newcrest ran Telfer the gold price was at least 47% lower.

And that they actually used a gold price of $1500 in their models - I'm thinking the PFS for Havieron in particular.

Realised gold prices , today, are some 91-96% higher in AUD than when Newcrest ran Telfer.

That's just a total head bender when it comes to margin.

Let's hope that any future GGP modelling will show two calculations from now on, similar to other ASX goldies that I have noticed.... first is a NPV calculation based on conservative gold/copper/silver prices, and second is the same calculation using spot prices.

This will show the market value that cannot be ignored, and hopefully brings in new buyers.

Just an observation, I do see the current upper management structure with the absence of an actual head of corporate development, being more tailored to focus growing the business on and around Telfer operations which is I think sensible strategy for greatland over next 3-5 years. GGP head of business development Rowan Krasnoff role would typically be to implement new improved strategies toward more efficient operations, staffing, asset management etc. so their role is really crucial to Greatland successful transition to that early growth. Has heaps of experience as you would expect. The whole management team are world class not to single any one particular person.

Corporate development tends to be longer term growth of the business looking for new opportunities on the horizon for expansion and toward greater diversification of new and current assets.

Guy - I'm sure the creation of a 'head office' (i.e. Greatland) is towards that end and covers the company development business while 'others' get on with the business of funding it effective/efficient by mining.

Hi jecsggp
I’m more referring to their long term growth strategy that is based on 3 ‘horizons’. Until they achieve a level of success from their first, they would only concentrate on actively persuing the second horizon and subsequently then onto the third. Is generally what is meant with the ref to them being horizons. They’re not going to throw everything into all of them at the same time.

- First horizon is to continue advancement of Hav to production
- Second horizon is to persue projects in the Paterson
- Third horizon is to then persue new investment and acquisitions across the resource sector

So the management structure by those two particular role definitions would be in line with the first and maybe second horizon to first and foremost cement a solid foundation of their primary asset which I would now consider to be Telfer. Is sensible as the company will not yet have the financial clout and market capitalisation to go elephant hunting on the global stage yet.

So I see it as a very positive ‘observation’ and I think just supports that immediate strategy before considering expanding their sights on the second growth horizon.

A company now the size of Greatland and what they aspire to be, a head of corporate development role will I’m sure, become a new seperate role to head of business development when the time comes. Many other new positions will be created the bigger the company becomes.

All very interesting and great to read and discuss but I think what’s been abundantly clear over the past few years is, no one on these boards knows what Shaun’s going to do in the next few months let alone 3-5 years so I’ll be waiting to see what ‘Shaun’ does with the growth strategy

Hey there CK,
Not sure I fully understand where you are coming from. Is it that you don’t trust Shaun? Or don’t trust what has been laid out in the admission document to be relied on regarding growth strategy?
Best, Guy

I'm with CK here. He's been around here longer than you, Guy, and he's not a negative poster. I think the point is that Shaun keeps pulling moves we weren't expecting, and delivering opportunities.

In 2019 would you have forecast opearinf telfer and finding more in the deeps there?!

Not mistrust, just recognising that he's doing good work behind scenes to deliver news like today's RNS.

Exactly that fb having these posts and discussions are a good distraction to pass the time, but to say with clarity we’re looking at 3-5 years is not right. Anything can happen, like this mornings rns. Once berenberks have gone and we’re on the asx there will be no excuse for the share price not to follow its peers. This could massively re rate at anytime

Hey folks my musings were not meant in any way negative or provocative. Company growth now will be dictated by managements approach but ultimately driven by revenue, rerating the share price will be the major function of that. Revenue is king. Immediate priorities lie with extending Telfer LOM with Havieron development to production being the real prize.

There are no certainties that development timeline will follow the roadmap, which could be any combination of factors such as with an increased Telfer ore reserve and updated mine plan the company could further fund Hav development from treasury and not rely on as much debt. The DFS could throw up an unexpected surprise, good or bad, that extends development timeframe. So 3-5 years to see ramp up, to nameplate throughput rate is a reasonable estimate. I’ve been around long enough to have a reasonable grasp on the industry and more realistic expectations on timeframes because of that. I dont take anything for granted and ‘never’ post for likes Been around Greatland longer than you may believe too. But I am super confident this current BOD and management team ‘will’ deliver on combining Telfer and Havieron.

Stonking drill results today too looking good toward that all important mine longevity needed to sustain operations for decades.

The more we find at Telfer the better as it will allow Havieron to be brought on line in an ordinary fashion and all paid for by Telfer. I would like to see a 3 months production at Telfer ready for processing and additional 3 months production at Havieron, all to act as a buffer and flexibility for operations underground at Havieron and at Telfer, We have waited a long time for our present scenario so we must get it right 1st time and take advantage of our good fortune.
As for a DIVI, well with a POG at 3500 usd oz (i think very soon) 2025 profit will pay for Telfer and Havieron expansion/production so i expect a DIVI during 2026, no point in having oooodles of cash in the bank doing nothing, there are no mines in Oz with LOM less than 2 years with a running process plant that we could buy. The nearest i can think of owned by the big boys is Tropicana, maybe 6 years left unless they can do a GGP in finding the right stuff locally to extend the mine. DM

Will certainly have a better forward financial projection from audited results once federal tax liabilities are known which will be 30% of taxable income. So is a chunk, plus company operating costs are better understood from the now enlarged group. Also to consider the base case CapEx estimate of US$803m which only takes Hav development up to first stope ore. This is likely to be exceeded by roughly US$100m just for bitumen haul road upgrade. There is a potential ore handling solution and a second decline CapEx to consider on top too plus potential west dome UG infrastructure to complete and processing plant upgrades. The remaining Hav mine development over LOM and sustaining capital is then covered in Hav AISC by then, so dividends could then be a consideration. If the bank credit facilities are not optioned which I think are likely to be in my experience. Companies don’t tend to want to use their own cash if a debt facility is available. The company would need to be debt free regardless to pay a dividend if I understand correctly.