GGPChat

Cannacord just upgraded us from 15p to 17p based on the extra $50m Worth of ore stockpiles and upgraded gold price outlook : nice start

Note also the date and time (on the screenshot) Its 7.40 am here - but it came from a fund manager contact in Australia - they are now all over Greatland like a wet flannel these guys know and trust Shaun Day personally - from his SO4 days actually - They point out that compared to De Grey and Rio's Winu - they simply cannot believe the GGP 0.2x to 0.3 valuation disparity!

Greatland is so dam cheap its insane... They are piling in as funds allow and believe it's going to 25p in the first year, and 40p on it.. in the first 3-4 years.

Cheers H. - had a copy come my way. - though i would drop it in plain text for anyone who struggles to read it.

Canaccord Genuity view
Greatland Gold has announced the completion of its acquisition of the 70% of the
Havieron project (that it did not already own), in addition to the Telfer mine from
Newmont (full transaction overview here). As part of the completion, Greatland has
agreed to waive certain administrative conditions related to the transfer of leases,
having determined that the benefits of taking control of the asset outweigh the risks
of waiting until these administrative procedures are complete. Finally, the company will
pay adjustments of ~US$50m for additional ore stockpiles that have been preserved/
accumulated since the transaction announcement.
As detailed in previous research, the transaction immediately transforms Greatland into
a producer of significant scale. We expect the following:

• Production of ~330 koz gold over an initial 15-month mine plan from Telfer, at an
AISC of ~US$1,580/oz.
• Havieron production of 200-250 koz p.a. @ US$872/oz AISC over a mine life of at
least 18 years.
• An 18-month gap between production ceasing at Telfer and first ore at Havieron;
however, we believe there is a likelihood of Telfer life extension.

Based on our numbers, Greatland trades at an EV/EBITDA of ~4x for FY25E (June YE)
and a P/NAV of just 0.42x. This lags both Australian producing peers and London-listed
producers which trade at ~0.70x. In our view, this discount ignores both the near-term
earnings potential and the long-life nature of Havieron. Therefore, in addition to being
bullish on the sector in general, we also expect this valuation gap to close. Reiterate
SPEC BUY rating.

Value upside opportunities
The company has previously spoken of
the various upside opportunities at the
Telfer-Havieron hub. Near-term, we see
potential for Telfer's life extension, with
the company outlining a 1.3-2.6 Moz AuEq
exploration target. Given the 20 mtpa plant
capacity, we also see significant scope
for the company to increase Havieron's
throughput from the currently defined 2.8
mtpa.

Key potential catalysts
• Inaugural production report (Jan/Feb 2025).
• Telfer life extension options.
• Havieron technical update.
• ASX listing (1HCY25).
• Potential GDX inclusion (2025).

Modelling and valuation

We have adjusted our DecQ'24 production for the delay in transaction completion. We
expect ~22koz of gold to be produced in the month of December and maintain our
expectation for ~330 koz to be produced over the course of the initial 15-month Telfer
mine plan. We have also updated our gold price deck to reflect the rise in the forward
curve since last publishing. The delay in DecQ production has resulted in a 13% decrease
in FY25E EBITDA (Jun YE), which is more than offset by an increase for FY26. Our NAV/
shr has risen to 17p/A$0.34 (previously 15p/A$0.29) and we raise our target price to
17p based on 1x P/NAV.