GGPChat

Hold tight folks, This is critical analysis :

Yesterday the Money of Mine podcast set about gold space M&A…. They picked apart the nos on a hypothetical scenario of Spartan being sold for say $2bn V Hemi/DeGrey being sold at $5bn plus the 1.5bn capex) and come back to what a truly unbelievable deal Greatland got from Newmont.

Listen from 19.30 or a few mins before… for better context…. In fact listen to the lot you won’t be disappointed. So much to learn from these guys!

hTTps://youtu.be/OfzLOqZKTsw?si=duSsdL2NQfen43Ne

They pull no punches these guys. They pretty much always call it how it is … What a deal - love it !!!!!!

Greatland paid 17% of what NST paid for Hemi for similar ounces and better grade

“We’re like whoaaa that’s a fecking good deal “

Worth listening back from 17mins for full context… Hemi beats Spartan even at $6.5bn Investment despite Spartans 9g/t resource , and despite its likely 5-6g reserves” (tbc) and much lower capex simply because of scale …. All based on 500koz pa.

This is where grade is alarmingly NOT always king. Scale is king

Sources tell me Havieron is capable of 700-900koz per year… no wonder our DFS is getting delayed for a bulk handling solution

Even when you consider Spartan can be in production by early 2026 and Hemi not till 2029. The overall payback over 12 years Hemi wins hands down!

Which means, eventually, Greatland blows the F lights out …! Slowly but surely the market will realise this.

Exceptional analysis… and It’s really surprising - when I saw that 10g/t resource statement from Spartan I thought like Jesus, that’s amazing. I couldn’t believe when they crunch the numbers how Degrey with its absolutely massive premium whopper biggest undeveloped gold in history pays back more over 12 years and sooner.

Greatland has to be the hands down winner though over time; I mean just the dividends from Havieron could support me for generations!

At 1.5p per share divi (minimum imo based on 5% return on even a 30p share price ) x 4m shares is like £60k per year (inflation linked) for life! Plus - That’s not to mention the potential for organic growth via the drill bit (which is highly possible).

I’m telling yer - one day the bloody doors will actually be blown off

Hydro you forgot the consolidation your 4m shares will become 400,000 or less

and the 1.5 becomes 15 and the 30 becomes 300, so the £60k is unaffected.

Is it me or is this consolidation business a simple maths exercise that a lot of people aren't grasping properly?

What would be the benefit to Greatland in consolidating, wouldn't it introduce uncertainty during these early days?

Ok / well In that case my Divi would be 15p on a £3 stock. Still £60k worth

So the reason that consolidation is spoken about is twofold:

1. The ASX apparently has a rule which required shares to be aroun 11-12p (equivalent). We are clearly not there at the moment and could be a limitation to cross-listing on the ASX which would naturally bring more investtment/demand and (hopefully) a consequential increase in SP - That is barring any more raises, which SD has said may not be required for funding pruposes but may be required as part of the cross listing process. If required for cross listing purposes, he has said that a raise would be minimal.

2. Many instituations who would invest are averse to "penny" stocks or stocks with high share numbers. By reducing the number of shares (consolidation), both of these hindrances are removed.

Many folks are not particulalry comfortable with consolidations as they are often performed following many many dilutions just to keep the lights on. A consolidation simply raises the SP temporarily but the lights still need to be kept on - so the SP continues to decline. The simple fact of a consolidation is also seen as many to knock the SP at the point of consolidation.

WildBill said it right - it "should" be a simple maths exercise - you can either own 2/1000ths of the company or 1/500th - which would you prefer?

IMO, In our case - as further news is released re Telfer/Havieron/Drill results etc, SD will be looking to consolidate as the SP rises and that momentum will hopefully carry us through the consolidation giving noone an option but to treat is soley as a mathematical exercise and the SP contimues it's upward trajectory.

ATB RA.

Wildbill 99, 13,000,000,000 shares in issue does need consolidating and the value of your holding would remain the same. It's inevitable but we are participating in a company making event, rare for a penny stock, which never comes cheap. At 13 to 1 they'd be still as many as 1 billion shares in issue, about 95p per share at today's SP (0.073p).

I like to keep my holding as a nice round numbers! 13 : 1 would be annoying as I'd have to buy some more If (as usual) RationalAssessor's 11-12p (ca $Au 0.25c) is correct information, it seems 2 : 1 would double today's SP; enable listing on ASX and cover SD's 'minimal' comment about consolidation. Famous last words, but that would be my bet.

archer1415 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 2:18 pm Wildbill 99, 13,000,000,000 shares in issue does need consolidating and the value of your holding would remain the same. It's inevitable but we are participating in a company making event, rare for a penny stock, which never comes cheap. At 13 to 1 they'd be still as many as 1 billion shares in issue, about 95p per share at today's SP (0.073p).

SD has stated he wants to list on the ASX BEFORE consolidation, also just because you have a consolidation down of your shares does not always mean the reverse on dividends.

Also 1.5p on 13bn shares is £195,000,000 I don't think you are going to see GGP pay out those kind of dividends in a hurry ! A lot had got to happen before that does .. so dream on. You may get 1.5p on 1.3bn shares if you are lucky !

Lennie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 7:41 am SD has stated he wants to list on the ASX BEFORE consolidation, also just because you have a consolidation down of your shares does not always mean the reverse on dividends.

Hi Lennie - I'm not sure I recall SD ever saying that consolidation would come after ASX - are you able to provide a reference to that please?

ATB RA

Is Consolidation is coming?

Northern Star Resources Ltd, FY24 Annual Report,
Share in issue 1,149,181,616,
Market cap 8.8b A$= (1.98), £9.46b

Greatland Gold plc,4 December 2024,
Share in issue 13,079,294,602,
Market cap £948.25m

So NS is ten times our size (This surprised me how big GGP now is relative) and GGP has 11 times more shares in issue.

So thinking aloud, based on 7p
1:10, will gives 1,307,929,460, share price 70p
1:20, will gives 653,964,730, share price 140p
1:50, will gives 261,585,892, share price 350p

RationalAssessor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 9:14 am

Lennie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 7:41 am SD has stated he wants to list on the ASX BEFORE consolidation, also just because you have a consolidation down of your shares does not always mean the reverse on dividends.

Hi Lennie - I'm not sure I recall SD ever saying that consolidation would come after ASX - are you able to provide a reference to that please?

ATB RA

I am pretty sure he did but will try and find out when and where !

I'm also pretty sure SD said consolidation would happen before listing on ASX. The reason as I recall the big Super Annuation funds don't look that favourably on Co's with shares in the multiple billions. But I dn't have the source, might have been a Town Hall.

I think with the updated Telfer MRE and 1Q production figures, we will pass the required price 11p to gain entry into the ASX, hearing different comments re what was said in the town hall, so we will just have to wait and see...

Lennie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 12:47 pm I think with the updated Telfer MRE and 1Q production figures, we will pass the required price 11p to gain entry into the ASX, hearing different comments re what was said in the town hall, so we will just have to wait and see...

Hopefully 11p+ b end of Aussie Q1.

4th December 2024 was our delivery day.
This is our new base line for the future development of GGP and on which our future will be judged. What has gone before this date, although relevant, becomes incidental to the short and long term future/valuations etc..
With GGP starting producing it is essential that GGP's financial team are fully on top of all the changes and gets the financials right. The markets will not like any mistakes.
We have taken on board a new workforce to us and all that entails. Our AISCC will change as the additional costs to GGP feed into the accounts. along with extra production costs and all the associated overheads. Sean with his experience in finance will hopefully ensure this is achieved.
At this stage no on knows for sure (very few probably have a sufficient grasp) to work out the overall effects of the changes on future income and profitability. I am sure the team have done their homework well.
The first 2 sets of quarter results could be as Sean Day and his team have indicated their thoughts and that potential income and profitability will be exceptional and that the future has great potential for free cash flow but we have to wait and see. The reality may be that it takes several quarters production to fully assess the overall position. we hope all goes well for GGP as the market will want reassurances that things are progressing well.
I hope all will be well and our future plans for production and the path to unlocking Havieron with free cash flow and providing enhanced exploration and everything else planned will come to fruition.
With our track record and now being being a new fledgling gold producing company with a top drawer management and with SD at the helm the future is ever looking brighter and that should soon be reflected to the market and to everyone else.

Well said Ponie - one small alteration. - it’s Shaun not Sean - otherwise good on you mate!!

Rotherby wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 9:17 am Is Consolidation is coming?


So thinking aloud, based on 7p
1:10, will gives 1,307,929,460, share price 70p
1:20, will gives 653,964,730, share price 140p
1:50, will gives 261,585,892, share price 350p

Or could it be 1:100 that will give 130,792,946, share price 700p

Redirons,
Apologies to all and to Shaun.
Most posts I make include a unintended faux pas (C**k up). Its just the way i am, I guess.
GLA.