GGPChat

Hoping to spark some debate on the potential share price of Greatland. First time I've tried anything like this and it it's simplistic using only the info provided in the last RNS. Can anybody say whether or not this is realistic:

Question to Grok:
A company with a market capitalisation of £1.18b, with approximately 13.08b shares in issue has a Mineral Resource Estimate of 8.4Moz gold equivalent and, for the first 15 years, an AISC of US$818/oz what should the share price be if gold is trading at $2901? The company will average 221koz annually during steady state operations.

Groks Answer (omitting all it's workings out so as to not clutter up this page):
Final Answer
Based on the given data—8.4 Moz resource, 221 koz annual production, AISC of $818/oz, gold at $2,901/oz, and a P/E of 15—the theoretical share price should be approximately 41.73 pence (£0.4173). This contrasts with the current price of 9.02 pence, implying potential undervaluation if the company meets its production targets and the gold price holds. For a more precise estimate, factors like capital expenditures, tax rates, or a detailed reserve breakdown would be needed, but this provides a reasonable ballpark based on your inputs.

Personally I believe the AISC should be double that figure below to cover both Telfer plus Havieron. I always say it is best to be conservative and more realistic so then any upside is a nice benefit. Expecting GGP to shoot out the lights from the off is always a big ask.

If you re-run below using an AISC of US$1,600 per ounce what is the outcome?

Thanks for your response. The updated figure is below. Hopefully it shows how undervalued we are with much more upside to come..just takes time.

Revised AISC of US$1600/oz:

Based on an annual profit of £221.2 million, a P/E ratio of 15, and 13.08 billion shares outstanding, the theoretical share price should be approximately 25.36 pence (£0.2536). This contrasts with the current implied share price of 9.02 pence, indicating potential undervaluation if the company meets its production and cost targets. For a more precise estimate, factors like debt, taxes, royalties, and a discounted cash flow analysis would be needed, but this provides a solid starting point based on the given data.

If you’re going to double the aisc to include telfer then the 8. 4 million ounces for hav need to be higher to include telfer…..no?

The AISC for Telfer was quoted as $1400, for the ore already at surface much lower.
HAV I believe was $818

Havieron is nearer $765 @ current copper prices which are almost $1 better off than the admission document.

Hopeful of clarification on this with the ASX admission documentation

Thing is, though, you can’t really include Havieron ounces in production figures at this stage as the mine won’t come online until 2027. A lot still needs to be done to get to that point, and telfers production itself will be key to funding Havieron. While I can see great prospect for sp growth from here based on Telfer production alone and prospects for Havieron we do need to keep our feet on the ground in terms of share price expectation.

Everything comes to those that wait, 2028 is not so far away.
I wonder what else Greatland will discover before the first Gold leaves Havieron?