GGPChat

Could someone be appointed to record daily (if appropriate) the volume of shares on loan so we can have a quick place to see this. Maybe a locked thread so just the data can be seen and not comments.

We have someone poised to do just that, - expect a post around lunchtime.

BR

Top quality Liam, all bases getting covered here. Keep it up.

Ortex data today is 64.22m shares on loan.

Up 80k from 64.14m reported on Friday.

that's interesting - I had them down for a steady reduction given the rise in the SP over the past 4-5 sessions...
Makes me think we are possibly attracting new money into GGP.
Good news on only 64m to close

Hydrogen wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:26 pm that's interesting - I had them down for a steady reduction given the rise in the SP over the past 4-5 sessions...
Makes me think we are possibly attracting new money into GGP.
Good news on only 64m to close

Worth noting the days to cover metric is based on a 100% deployment rate of the shares on loan, and unfortunately we can’t get deployment data.

In any case, it will be difficult to buy back 64m shares with the current low volumes, without spiking the SP.

Great to see Hydro’s posts again - missed you buddy!!!

Hi Redirons Thanks - I've quietly enjoyed stepping back from LSE, given the trolling - but maintained a consistent presence in Telegram. FWIW
I'm more confident than ever. The Shorts can target 'dumb' funds and sellers like that Van Eck rebalance... (note our 2 year low was on the day of the MIVS snapshot), but ultimately they won't get another chance like that... and they only managed to close 9m anyhow... Then whacked another 6m straight back at it... That suggest plenty of new money arriving into GGP to me and they need major liquidity to close.

That 10-20m liquidity just isn't there most of time.. so the chances of a short squeeze are a real and increasing danger.

Hi Hydrogen.

Do you think the ‘shorts’ are hoping to pick up shares from Pacific Trends, when they get their 145 million shares?

I can’t see how they can hope to buy back all the shorts, otherwise.

Why would Pacific Trends sell any of their 145M shares for a pittance of a price, when they have also witnessed 38pps value.
Surely they want as much as possible for them.

They made a massive mistake by selling the Havieron tenement to GGP.
I can’t see them making another massive mistake by selling their shares on the cheap, can you ?

SAS, I suppose it all depends on how much they need the money, or allowing it to be tied up for quite a period until the sp recovers.

I thought I read on the LSE board a while ago that Pacific Trends weren’t doing too good. I can’t remember who said it or in fact if it is true.

I just see the shorters building up their short position and can’t see how they can get out of it intact. It would be nice for the sp to re-rate as they tried to get out of the short positions, but I think they are too savvy for that.

An intriguing situation which will come to a head once the 5% is sorted.

Southside55, you said you had heard that PT’s weren’t doing too good.
Why would they not be doing too good ?

Pacific Trends are a bit like an investment company.
They actively go out and seek and secure new tenement blocks, for then to sell the rights to those tenements in exchange for a capital reward in cash plus a brucie bonus of shares if the tenement is ever mined.

They have similar deals with other junior miners all over Australia.

They have also just become a junior miner themselves, with the incorporation of Flynn Gold pty, whose main exploration licences are in Tasmania.

Mmmmm I wonder which company Shaun Day might have been talking about when he suggested doing JV’s on our Tasmanian projects.

So in answer to your question, I don’t see that PT’s are struggling.
Their business model seems like a win/win to me.

All imo of course

Utilization
“Another metric to focus on when analyzing short selling data on a stock is its utilization rate. Utilization is the number of loaned shares divided by the available shares in the securities lending market, expressed as a percentage.”
https://www.2iqresearch.com/blog/how-to ... lling-data

So in GGP’s case, we currently have a Utilization rate according to Ortex data of 43.25%.

No of shares on Loan according to today’s Ortex as per this BB is reported as being 64.22m

So the number of available shares in the securities lending market irrespective of actual ‘Deployment’ must currently be equal to 64.22 / 0.4325 = 148.49m .?????

Interesting, ie SD has already alluded to the 5% issue as being behind the shorts etc, and we all know what that will later entail later re Pacific Trends, or is it just pure coincidence as far as the numbers above are concerned?

Interesting.

66.99m shares on loan, +2.77m

Am I right in saying there are 'only' 20.35 million shares being used for shorting and the 66.99 figure is what has been borrowed to potentially use to short? Therefore, as things stand, they 'only' have to buy back 20.35 million (I use the term 'only' very loosely by the way)

I don't think so Boxa.

My understanding is that the 20.34 have been declared as definite shorts.
The remaining 45M shares have been borrowed and may or may not have been deployed. But why borrow if you are not going to deploy at some time in the near future.

Therefore, I believe that between 20.34M and 66M will need to be bought back to be returned off loan and I would guess that we are at the higher end of the range.

ATB RA

I'm guessing they borrow them 'just in case' i.e. the price falls for whatever reason they buy some back, but if the price rises/spikes on no news, they can sell into it straight away with the shares they have borrowed. I don't know, just thought I'd ask. I've likely even got my above presumptions all wrong

From what I've seen, I believe that they always have a relatively small number in reserve in order to "dampen down" any price rises and restore the apparent "sat in the doldrums" situation. I also beleive that they look for quiet days when they will "attack" in order to drive the price down further.

Yes, I suspect that they will take any opportunity (like the GDXJ selling a few days ago) in order to buy and return some off loan.
But we have seen a steady rise in shares borrowed which is why I beleive that the mojority of those which are borrowed have already been deployed. There would be no reason to borrow more if you already have plenty of dry powder.

All of the above is my opinion on how the shorts are being managed. Others will have different opinions I'm sure.
I also believe that they are presenting some folks with great buying opportunities. Not meant as a ramp although I recognise that it may appear that way.

ATB RA.

Cheers RA, I was just looking at the figures on Ortex and trying to understand them. All a steep learning curve for me and thanks for your thoughts.

Boxa1511 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:53 pm Cheers RA, I was just looking at the figures on Ortex and trying to understand them. All a steep learning curve for me and thanks for your thoughts.

This might help, from their web site explaining the data :

Short Interest and Securities Lending Data

Short Score
This is a blended measure of multiple short metrics, a high value indicates that the stock is highly shorted.

Exchange Reported Short Interest:
(Only for US, Canadian, Australian and Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETF’s)
ORTEX provide the primary exchange (e.g NYSE and NASDAQ) released Short data. In the US, stock exchanges only offer short interest data twice a month and with several days lag but its still useful to provide and present this data in combination with more timely data so that all the information available is provided in one place.

Note regarding Canadian, Australian and Hong Kong stocks: ORTEX have recently added short interest estimates for these stocks and are actively working to improve the performance of these estimates.

Flagged Shares Shorted:
(Only for UK or EU-listed stocks and ETF’s)
This box shows all aggregated publicly announced short positions as the number of shares currently on loan. In Europe financial institutions are required to flag to the local regulator whenever they go over or back under certain thresholds. This provides valuable and timely additional data. ORTEX add these flags intra-day as soon as the regulator publishes them.

Flagged % FreeFloat On Loan:
(Only for UK or EU-listed stocks and ETF’s)
This box shows all aggregated publicly announced short positions as a percentage of the freefloat. In Europe financial institutions are required to flag to the local regulator whenever they go over or back under certain thresholds. This provides valuable and timely additional data. ORTEX add these flags intra-day as soon as the regulator publishes them.

Value of ORTEX Estimated SI
The present value of the number of shares estimated to be sold short

ORTEX Estimated SI % of FreeFloat:
The ORTEX estimate of the % of the company's free floating shares that are shorted.

Note that different data providers use different methodologies to determine the number of free float shares, so it is reasonable to expect different free-float values on different sites. Free Float is determined from published data and SEC filings to determine which holdings should be excluded from float. These changes are made as quickly as possibly, but this process takes time to perform and changes to holdings may not be immediately shown in the number off Free Float shares leading this figure appearing to be higher or lower than the correct value.

% FreeFloat on Loan:
The percentage of the companies freefloat that is currently out on loan.

Shares On Loan:
The current number of shares out on loan

Days To Cover:
How many days volume the current shares on loan equate to. Note average daily volume is based average 3 month daily volume for the given security across exchanges.

Cost To Borrow:
The average annualized % of interest on loans from Prime brokers to their clients, i.e hedge funds.

Utilization:
The ratio between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market and the number of shares available for lending at lending programs. 0% means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs; 100% means that all shares available to borrow or lend at a lending program have, in fact, been lent. This does not represent the number of shares listed on the exchange that have been lent, because not all listed shares are available for lending; it indicates how much of the supply actually available for lending has been lent. Unless otherwise specified, this is given in decimal format.