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Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:24 am
by Bottle Rocket - Liam
For all of those informed posters and budding journalists that we have on the various boards - Write an article with your outlook for GGP (Buy, Sell or Hold), Rules are as follows:
  • The article must not be more than 1000 words. - (EDIT: This has been Raised from 500 07/08)
  • Articles can include pictures and diagrams at the cost of 20 words per picture/diagram.
  • All articles must be posted on this thread by 8PM next Friday
  • The vote will happen over the next weekend and will close at 8PM on Sunday
  • This thread is only open for article submission and not debate - other comments will be removed into room 101.
  • No copying
  • Articles should be factually correct but can include opinions if stated as such. They will be challenged and the owner asked to edit.
[*]All articles must have a disclaimer in a separate paragraph which is not part of the 500 words and is at the end. eg "This article does not contain financial advice, the author holds shares in GGP"

[*]A prize of a box of Freddos will go to the writer of the article which receives the highest number of votes.

Reactions have been disabled for this thread.

Good Luck
BR.

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:02 pm
by CanisLycaon
BUY! The future of Greatland Gold will, IMHO, largely be determined, going forwards, by the MD, Shaun Day!

I don't need many words, nor pictures, nor diagrams, to make my point! The word count, would, inevitably, take more than 500 words!

Anyone with any, even basic knowledge, about the company, would already know where we're going with Havieron!

Havieron, will largely, look after itself, and, should it be bought out 100%, then it will not go for a cent less than it's worth!

We have many other tenements in the Paterson, an area increasingly likely to have another major 'strike', and. as Shaun Day has said, many times, it doesn't even need to be the (increasingly huge!) size of Havieron, but especially when we may well maintain our 100% ownership.

I trust our MD, to continue to act, as he has clearly done so far, in the best interests of our shareholders, and I doubt there is anyone else out there that could do the same, with his vast experience of the industry, and in conjunction with the rest of the amazing team we have now!

BUY!

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:46 am
by Panama
Why Buy The Tale Herein Lies
So why buy this golden prize?
The answer then herein lies !
Our major find with it's body of ore.
Is the jewel in our crown
But wait...there's more......

Now 'look' Shaun Day our CEO,
Won't sleep or rest..is always on the go,
To buy & dig in tenements galore
He'll find golden nuggets in more & more!

Ernest Giles, Warrantina, & Scallywag,
A strike in these & we've got it in the bag!
Then there's Bromus, Rudall & Panorama
A hit in these will add to the drama!

With shorters 'n trolls who persistently deride,
With Viking & Red they consistently collide!
Over 18 months it's been a bumpy ride!
But actions are in place to stop the slide!

Research from Paddy, Hydro, Bamps & Jerry,
Millionaires in the making we'll soon be making merry!
So buy buy buy for your golden prize
The answer to your question herein lies!

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:19 pm
by DipSard
I’m going to submit this for the fun of writing something as I love writing but bowing out of the competition as I am in a support position in the telegram groups, would be great to see some quieter members of the community post a submission and have some fun with this too :)

Greatland dares to be great…

Where other explorers favour divestment, Greatland has chosen to retain 30% (perhaps 25% soon) in their W.Australian based Gold Copper discovery Havieron, scheduled for production in early 2024.

Various broker estimates (Hannam, Sprott, Berenberg, Canaccord) pitch Havieron’s potential resource at >10Moz currently, indicating decades of production with an initial SLOS starter mine focused on the high-grade SE Crescent commencing with >3mtpa output expected in a FS due by year-end and outlined in Greatland’s MRE being augmented in the years ahead by estimates varying from 6-9mtpa bulk mining rates from other zones of this compact but increasingly high-grade ore body.

Interestingly there has been confirmation of nickel being present in the ore body by Greatland’s MD Shaun Day although whether of academic interest due to its head scratching presence in a Gold Copper ore body or in commercial quantities is to be determined. Whether the hesitation is through JV confidentially or lack of understanding and further drilling required from underground is unclear, but nonetheless adds a fascinating twist to an already unique discovery.

zones.png

Exploration and infill drilling continue to deliver with CAGR since the maiden resource in Dec 2020 of 43%, Shaun describes it as a high-quality ore body that continues to expand. Conversion of the resource into reserves currently stands at 86% and ounces per vertical metres are also exceptional at over 8000m in the top half of the ore body in such a compact footprint and Shaun recently described a clear correlation between ounces discovered and delineated and meters drilled as exploration continues.

He also stated that as they drill the northwest pod, it appears to be linking up with the northern breccia to create a good grade corridor coming in and touching right up to the SE Crescent and drilling in the south of the eastern breccia has had some of the highest hits in the ore body with grades more reminiscent of the SE Crescent with the team excited to have another area that appears to be very high grade.

Shaun also recently speculated on a potential 20Moz resource according to ‘relatively basic volumetric calculations’ and Greatland’s recent JORC MRE with a cut off from 5th December 2021 outlined 6.5Moz Gold Equivalent, including over 218,000 tons of copper and reserves of 3Moz @ 3.7 grams.

Breccia.png

Amazingly, production is scheduled barely 4 years after the astounding HAD005 discovery hole and being jointly developed with Newcrest under a JV, with the benefit of utilising the infrastructure and replacing the rapidly diminishing ore from their Telfer mine just 45km away, thereby retaining 1200 staff and avoiding mothballing this grand old dame of Australian mining.

Such synergy, a conflux of perfect alignment offered by the death of one mine and the birth of another akin to a reincarnation, you would think both Greatland and Newcrest have been in the throes of true love?

Especially with potential for a ‘family’ of assets through a further JURI JV and potential partnership with Greatland’s 100% owned Scallywag tenement, all in the Paterson and following the NW strike from Havieron with compelling geological interpretation opening up possibilities for other mineralised breccia pipes both inside and outside the mining lease.

Paterson Projects.png

But alas… there have been tensions and high drama through a perhaps ill-judged option exercise in the JVA that allows Newcrest an additional 5% of the mining lease at FMV. Perhaps Intentions were that it could assist Greatland in paying off the existing $50m loan held through Newcrest to cover costs to FS.

Shaun Day has been at pains to explain that achieving FMV seemed improbable given the prescriptive measures basing valuations off the conservative Newcrest PFS modelled on a fraction of the SE Crescent, itself a fraction of the ore body - along with conservative price decks. And his message has been adamant, the exercise set an option price not FMV for 5% of the mining lease.

Yet despite this and a binary process whereby an independent valuer selected one valuation over another due to inability to negotiate valuations 20% within each other, Greatland were able to utilise their own MRE with the data cut-off within the period utilised in the exercise to update resources by 53%, reserves by 50%, include an updated mine plan which helped increase value over five-fold by adding >$1bn USD just 64 days after the PFS from $228m to $1.2bn and helped achieve a price determination of $60m.

If Newcrest bite, the existing loan is covered and funding development to production eased without a preferential lender in place, although Shaun Day has stated terms sheets to hand with Tier 1 banks utilising just the PFS.

If not? Then you could argue the 5% retained by Havieron could provide returns well above $60m in the years ahead.

Nonetheless Diggers and Dealers saw both companies professing mutual respect and commitment to the project, perhaps Cupid’s arrow has again found its mark?

The company also has compelling opportunities outside the Paterson such as Ernest Giles covering a sequence of greenstone rocks typical of large W.Australian gold camps such as Kalgoorlie and Gold, Cobalt and Nickel opportunities at Bromus and Panorama.

A Tier 1 mine in a Tier 1 Jurisdiction with a Tier 1 partner, existing infrastructure, JV alignment returning, other compelling tenements within the portfolio, Havieron production looming in potentially the second lowest cost and geopolitically most investable gold company globally, macro outlooks promising… recommendation is a BUY.

Disclaimer: This article does not contain financial advice; the author holds shares in GGP.

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:04 pm
by RationalAssessor
Greatland Gold – The multi-generational investment opportunity.

There’s a phenomenon in the mining industry called the Lassonde Curve. It maps the expected stock of junior explorers where the initial exuberance of a discovery then translates to the hard slog of financing and risk reduction to then be followed by the steady increase leading up to production.
Greatland Gold appears to be following the curve beautifully – see diagram below. Their Havieron deposit in Western Australia is already recording a deposit of the equivalent of 6.5 Million ounces of gold.
Lassode.JPG
What’s more, Greatland are in a Joint Venture with Newcrest Mining who, not only are experts in bulk mining these types of orebody but, they also have their Telfer processing plant just down the road. Newcrest has recently extended Telfer’s life by mining an area which was previously deemed uneconomical, however, they are desperate to see the Havieron ore flowing to Telfer. Havieron lies under 400M of cover and, so convinced are Newcrest of its viability, they have already commenced the decline to the orebody – recent reports are that they have broken through the difficult soft ground and are now making much more solid progress blasting through the country rock. They report that they have now completed 550M of a 2800M decline and are anticipating reaching the top of the orebody by the end of 2024. Once there, they will develop the mine and will commence extracting ore to be transported and processed at Telfer – Havieron will then transition to a production asset and generate income.

Newcrest are clearly demonstrating that they will take Havieron to production and have based that on a $1350 price of Gold – Gold is currently $1776 and rising – already $400 per ounce greater than NCM’s calcs. As the world economies devalue their currencies thru printing trillions of dollars of FIAT currencies, gold has risen in value by an average of 9% per annum since 2000. Investment interest rates in the UK on the other hand have averaged around 3% per annum. Where better to invest than in physical gold…or an undervalued gold producer.

And why would I say undervalued – I’ve already mentioned that NCM has been very conservative and based their model on a gold price of $1350, but, more importantly, they have based it upon a very small part of the orebody – “a fraction of a fraction” according to Shaun Day the GGP CEO.

The already declared reserves only represent a fraction of the SE Crescent of the Havieron deposit; this will increase as further drilling is completed – they still have not identified where the SE Crescent boundaries are either laterally or in depth. What’s more, within Havieron, the JV has struck gold in other sections such as the Eastern Breccia, the South East Crescent Deeps, the Northern Breccia and the NW Pods. And that’s not to mention three further targets outside of the main orebody. If I were a betting man, they will be finding gold for the next 15 years and will be extracting it in significant volume for at least 50 years. Tough decisions on how they select the respective targets to maximise the efficiency of the production chain will need to be made. That’s why I have adjusted the diagram of the Lassonde curve above (orange line) to show that I anticipate that the GGP price continuing to improve as the Havieron deposit grows faster than it is depleted.

Oh, and there’s more!

Greatland hold many more tenements across Australia and Tasmania, many of which are in the highly prospective Paterson district. They have already shown good signs of prospectivity and Greatland continue to drill in the hope of releasing further value and potentially finding the next Havieron. Since his arrival at Greatland some 18 months ago, Shaun Day has built and extremely competent team of mining professionals who have already shown they can hold their own amongst the big miners. Shaun has also indicated that he is in the process of considering other Joint Ventures, Partnerships or Acquisitions.

Why buy now?

Newcrest are due (in the last quarter of this year) to release the Feasibility study for the small part of Havieron that will form the initial mine – once released, I anticipate significant institutional investment which will drive down the available free float of shares significantly and consequently an increase in share price in order to wrest those shares away from the tenacious hold of private investors. We are now seeing signs that institutions are starting to buy in and the recent turn in share price movement could be an indication that we have already seen the bottom ahead of the FS. The Jewel in the crown of institutional buy in will be the GDX fund – a multi-billion ETF which will, I believe, be required to buy in as soon (if not before) Greatland start to create income for mining activities. It was the GDX’s smaller brother the GDXJ (Junior Miners ETF) buying which caused much of the first peak in share price in 2020.

What else is happening?

Shaun has recently declared that GGP is investigating the opportunity to cross-list and trading on the ASX. Brokers may simply make the current inventory of shares available for trading on ASX or may take the opportunity to seed new shares into the ASX via a small placing in order to assist in the GGP funding of the Havieron Capex. Either way, I would anticipate that those shares made available on ASX would likely be snapped up by multiple Australian institutional investors who are more familiar with the mining industry and are certainly closer to the action.

If you’re looking to buy either for capital growth or future dividends, now’s the time in my opinion. Can’t think of many better shares to pop in an ISA or better still in a SIPP to enjoy the benefits of tax relief.
The future’s Gold, the future’s Greatland Gold.

The content of this article does not provide any form of financial advice. If you hadn’t guessed by now, the author does hold shares in Greatland Gold.

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:46 am
by speedymeadie
Hi Liam. Please send the Freddos to Speedy at the Stag.
The main reason for buying GGP for me is the gold. We have found it and are finding more by the month. If you think gold is an ancient worthless relic then GGP is not for you. On the other hand if you think gold is going to $5000/oz (as i do) within the next decade then buy GGP with all the funds you can muster.
GGP is a leveraged play on the POG and a leveraged play on a possible 20 or maybe 30mill ozs at HAV alone is not something to let pass by.
GGP is in the best position i have ever seen an AIM listed explorer to be in, safe jurisdiction, very sharp BODs, JV with a big miner and loads more areas with really good prospects of finding more mineable gold.
Buy Buy Buy. ATB Speedy.
Disclaimer. I am a lifelong gold investor and own physical metals and GGP stock.

Re: Writing Competition: "My Outlook for Greatland (Buy, Sell or Hold)?"

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:29 pm
by lebugue-addick
What has Greatland ever done for shareholders?

Well, having read what some shareholders have to say on share chat forums you might be excused for thinking: “not a lot”! But it’s worth taking a closer look at where Greatland has come from and then you will get a far clearer picture of what a great story is developing.

Havieron – The Early Days

On 26 September 2016 GGP acquired 100% of Havieron from Pacific Trends for an initial payment of A$25,000 in cash and issuing 65.49m shares (approx A$225,000), and a second payment, only triggered upon a subsequent decision to mine, of 145,530,000 shares. At that time GGP’s share price was around 0.2p.

Drilling started in April 2018 and by 25 June results from the first drill hole (HAD001) were described as “exceptional” with high grade gold mineralisation including 11.5m @ 21.23g/t gold and 0.67% copper from a depth of just 568.5m.

The excellent results just kept coming and as early as July 2018 Gervaise Heddle announced the potential of Havieron “to host a large mineralised system”.

By November 2018 the first hole of the second drilling campaign yielded results from the now infamous HAD005 drill hole with total combined intercepts of 275m @ 4.77g/t gold and 0.61% copper. As GH said: “these stunning results represent a world class intersection representing in excess of 1,500 gram metres gold equivalent”. The shares responded with a rise to 1.73p.

At this stage it might be tempting to just say..”and the rest is history”. But actually this was just the beginning.

Newcrest Joint Venture Agreement

These early successes inevitably drew admiring glances form Newcrest who perhaps realised they needed to get in early on the action due to a dwindling resource at nearby Telfer, particularly as Rio Tinto had started drilling on land adjacent to Greatland.

So on 12 March 2019 GGP signed a US$65m farm-in agreement with Newcrest, in a four-stage agreement over 4 years, with NCM also acting as manager. The intention was that, subject to a positive feasibility study outcome, the ore from the JV would be tolled at NCM’s Telfer plant just 45km from Havieron.

This was seemingly a win-win for both parties which shareholders liked but the SP gave a muted response probably because GGP were potentially giving away up to 75% of their prized asset.

Drilling results however continued to be spectacular throughout 2019 and the market finally caught up with events from early 2020 ending with an SP of 37p in December 2020, valuing GGP at a healthy £1.4bn.

However, disappointing results from GGP’s 100%-owned Scallywag drilling, the departure of GH and an over-exuberant SP took its toll, with investors taking profits.


Pre-Feasibility Study

A major success for Greatland came in December 2020 with an initial inferred mineral resource estimate of 4.2m oz gold equivalent. To have achieved that within 2 years of signing the JVA was remarkable and also re-confirmed how important this project was to Newcrest with Telfer running out of sustainable resources.

Undeterred by the SP taking a breather, more spectacular drill results continued to be reported every 6/7 weeks during 2021 and early works activity on the decline commenced in January 2021 marking a major milestone for the project.

Mineralisation meanwhile continued to remain open in multiple directions outside of the initial MRE.

The next major milestone came in October 2021 with the release of the PFS with drilling cut off 8 months earlier in February 2021 to the dismay of many investors who had been used to up to the minute updates hitherto. A resource of 4.4m oz gold equivalent was announced including a decent 20% copper contribution.

The JV team identified the potential for a 14Mt starter mine from the Probable ore reserves mined over an initial 9 year life from a throughput of up to 2Mtpa. The PFS did not consider 37Mt of the current inferred mineral resource or any potential resources that may be defined in the Northern and Eastern Breccias.

The economics of the maiden PFS support the total capex with GGP’s share a quite small US$73m on top of the $50m Newcrest loan. The AISC at US$643/oz means that Havieron could become the second lowest cost gold company globally – a stunning result.

Shareholders welcomed this fantastic announcement though the SP remained deflated.

So, do the numbers add up?

The PFS Stage 1 study talks about a 2Mtpa starter mine delivering free cashflow of $764m and a NPV of $508m with payback of just 3 years.

However there is scope at Feasibility Study stage GGP believe to look at a 3Mtpa (or more) operation from within existing declared resources – this could result in a NPV approaching $1 bn for a 3 million plus oz operation.

Investors eagerly await the FS, scheduled for delivery in Q4 CY22.

GGP’s own updated MRE and the 5% NCM Option

Greatland, independently from Newcrest, issued its own updated MRE of 6.5m oz gold equivalent in March 2022. This was necessary to prepare for bank funding of the capex as well as an urgent need to get an updated picture of the scale of the resource as NCM informed GGP in December 2021 that it wanted to begin the process under the JVA to seek to agree the option exercise price for the additional interest of 5% of the Havieron venture.

This appeared to be a masterstroke to GGP investors given the likelihood Newcrest would put in a low offer. However, under the JVA, which investors did not see, determination of the option price, which turned out to be $60m, was in accordance with a highly prescriptive process and principles agreed in the 2019 JVA. This included a process where an independent valuer had a binary choice between the option prices put forward by both parties and therefore was not permitted to independently determine a different option price.

The JVA included a number of valuation principles, including in respect of the key commodity prices which GGP considers materially impacted its ability to push for a higher option price.

Furthermore only geological data available up to the date of the option announcement (15 December 2021) could be considered which in effect meant the price was based on out of date drilling data.

As such the option price of $60m determined in July 2022 does not represent a true market value for the 5% and GGP advise in no way should investors use this figure to extrapolate to 100% of the true value of Havieron ie definitely not $1,200m.

Newcrest’s own updated MRE and FS Q4 CY22

Far from endorsing GGP’s updated MRE in March Newcrest only put out an announcement that it “noted” the release but “had not reviewed or verified the analysis”. Instead Newcrest intends to issue an updated MRE with its annual results on 19 August.

Indeed it says the Havieron FS will be informed by the revised NCM MRE to be reported ie not Greatland’s.

What does this mean for investors? Well NCM can hardly deliver an updated MRE less than GGP’s 6.5m oz gold equivalent given GGP worked meticulously to bring in all drill results to December 2021. So NCM will need to add a further 6 months’ drilling to add to the GGP figures.

Given the superb drilling results from the previous 24 six weekly updates and extrapolating it would be a surprise if Newcrest did not acknowledge some 8m oz gold equivalent with perhaps some 3.5-4m oz in the Probable category, up from GGP’s 2.9m oz.

That’s because there is a tremendous rate of conversion (some 86%) between the indicated resource and the Probable reserve, which according to Shaun Day is the best he has seen in his career.

Summing Up

The Greatland journey is still only just beginning as SD recently announced in interview that Havieron could be sitting on 20m oz gold with a multi-decade opportunity. First gold ounces from the starter mine are expected to be produced in FY24 and this will be good for early cashflow.

Much else to talk about at a later stage – SD himself and the strength of the GGP team, potential from the other tenements, the Newcrest partnership, respect for the indigenous people, the 87m short, potential ASX listing, the growth of the N & E breccias etc.

For now the verdict is: BUY at 11p


Disclaimer: The above cannot be construed as financial advice - the author holds shares in Greatland Gold

Footnote - the article exceeds 1,000 words (c.1,384) as I did not feel I could do justice to the GGP story in fewer. If disqualified, the article could be beneficial to newcomers who are only just investing in GGP.