100m to buy back .. BUT why?
Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:06 am
On the face of it, it looks as if someone is acting to defend a profitable, but now deteriorating, short position.. Ok.
But something doesn't make any sense... Why keep gradually adding - and so much - over such an extended period of time?
Especially, when meanwhile the fundamentals (MRE , growth drilling results, depth to orebody, scally + EJ drilling get closer) and price is now apparently moving the opposite direction?
IMO it looks as if their efforts are having "pretty much net zero effect now". But what I don’t get is the ‘progressive nature’ of this short position. The way it’s continually growing over approaching 12 months now suggests to me, it’s not about anything specific or any ‘event’ in particular…. Its looking more like an over extended ( now failing ) attempt at price suppression.
Otherwise, it’s just illogical risk management.
If you believed ggp was worth shorting 95m at 11p then you would surely have believed the same at 14/15p 6-7 months ago - for much much better returns…? But no... That's just not how they played it. Why?
Well arguably, and evidently, it’s potentially not about returns. Because presumably, You would have closed at 9-10p for a 60% profit from JPMs 18m sell back in January. And maybe they can’t/ won’t close - as that would be pretty difficult now? Given how illiquid GGP is... remember a 10m buy moves us up about 1- 1.5p
Nitram has cleverly illustrated how and why "they" are an estimated 30% of total GGP volume over the past year or so. Ortex suggest it would take 7 days of trading to close, potentially rocketing the SP into orbit 10-20% (IMO) every day...
So we come to the Why? Why target little ol GGP like this...when so few other gold developers (other than Solgold) have big shorts in play... Hmmm? No coincidence both are >>>> significant takeover targets ???
I've concluded it all Feels like this is either about 1) defending a misjudged position… Or 2) it’s about… possible accumulation and/or price suppression, for some future event.
Someone has to buy back at least 95m. (Probably 100m by now - as the ortex data lags)... That’s between £12-15m worth of stock depending on the average price achieved … it's surpasses Blackrock's 'big 90m buy' that took us from 28p to 34p. Undeniably its now getting into Vaneck size buy territory …
But all the while, with the exception of whoever is represented by JPM asset management, 'they' remain hidden, under all reporting thresholds.
But why?
Think about it ... If you were that sure, that convinced, of your short... you’d be out in the open; like Marshall Wace… or shouting your mouth off like Muddy Waters - not hiding under the radar..
And this has now become one helluva cul-de-sac creek. They just keep selling, suppressing. As Jupiter et al hoovers up.
And then there is this (attached) : it's a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern with the GGP Chart over laid... The pattern coincidence was first flagged to me over 2 months ago...back in mid May. The Spring was the dip to 9p.... The 'test' took place in June.
And, updated 3 months on in mid August , the confluence and the coincidence is still pretty striking.
I reckon we might presently be at the "LPS" zone marked by the purple circle.
Just a theory...
But something doesn't make any sense... Why keep gradually adding - and so much - over such an extended period of time?
Especially, when meanwhile the fundamentals (MRE , growth drilling results, depth to orebody, scally + EJ drilling get closer) and price is now apparently moving the opposite direction?
IMO it looks as if their efforts are having "pretty much net zero effect now". But what I don’t get is the ‘progressive nature’ of this short position. The way it’s continually growing over approaching 12 months now suggests to me, it’s not about anything specific or any ‘event’ in particular…. Its looking more like an over extended ( now failing ) attempt at price suppression.
Otherwise, it’s just illogical risk management.
If you believed ggp was worth shorting 95m at 11p then you would surely have believed the same at 14/15p 6-7 months ago - for much much better returns…? But no... That's just not how they played it. Why?
Well arguably, and evidently, it’s potentially not about returns. Because presumably, You would have closed at 9-10p for a 60% profit from JPMs 18m sell back in January. And maybe they can’t/ won’t close - as that would be pretty difficult now? Given how illiquid GGP is... remember a 10m buy moves us up about 1- 1.5p
Nitram has cleverly illustrated how and why "they" are an estimated 30% of total GGP volume over the past year or so. Ortex suggest it would take 7 days of trading to close, potentially rocketing the SP into orbit 10-20% (IMO) every day...
So we come to the Why? Why target little ol GGP like this...when so few other gold developers (other than Solgold) have big shorts in play... Hmmm? No coincidence both are >>>> significant takeover targets ???
I've concluded it all Feels like this is either about 1) defending a misjudged position… Or 2) it’s about… possible accumulation and/or price suppression, for some future event.
Someone has to buy back at least 95m. (Probably 100m by now - as the ortex data lags)... That’s between £12-15m worth of stock depending on the average price achieved … it's surpasses Blackrock's 'big 90m buy' that took us from 28p to 34p. Undeniably its now getting into Vaneck size buy territory …
But all the while, with the exception of whoever is represented by JPM asset management, 'they' remain hidden, under all reporting thresholds.
But why?
Think about it ... If you were that sure, that convinced, of your short... you’d be out in the open; like Marshall Wace… or shouting your mouth off like Muddy Waters - not hiding under the radar..
And this has now become one helluva cul-de-sac creek. They just keep selling, suppressing. As Jupiter et al hoovers up.
And then there is this (attached) : it's a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern with the GGP Chart over laid... The pattern coincidence was first flagged to me over 2 months ago...back in mid May. The Spring was the dip to 9p.... The 'test' took place in June.
And, updated 3 months on in mid August , the confluence and the coincidence is still pretty striking.
I reckon we might presently be at the "LPS" zone marked by the purple circle.
Just a theory...