GGPChat

In regards to some concerns voiced around the DFS and how inflation and other geopolitical and fiscal issues may affect the economics … an example of how you could go about it is by looking at what NCM or analysts have outlined as concerns and the counter measures they have put in place to assess how they may or may not impact the Havieron DFS.

Table - Measures and Counter Measures
Important IMO to focus on one very critical fact, GGP have already arranged funding using assumptions outlined in PFS and cleared perhaps the biggest hurdle any junior has in transitioning to a mining company, we only need the DFS to confirm the economic feasibility of the project to feed into the DTM vs requiring it to also go to the banks to complete funding.

We are massively ahead of schedule as such and we cleared this major hurdle with gusto, with double the assumed CAPEX requirements and the PFS also assumed some level of cost burden increase too. Newcrest for obvious reasons shouldn’t have any issue in funding their share of CAPEX I would have thought.

IMO the recent completion of funding, addition of directors that any company in the industry would welcome with open arms and Wyloo is building a capability for growth that is astounding. GGP has all the potential you could hope for in any company but of course it won’t be plain sailing and inherent risks will apply as with any company in this stage of development.

As always - DYOR, these are my personal thoughts and just a very very quick and basic analysis.

I just can't imagine NCM closing down Telfer. The cost of laying off 1500 workforce plus shutting the plant down would be astronomical. I'm sure they would be happy just to break even until gold and copper returns to mean against fiat currencies.

Thanks to Harry J in Telegram for sharing the links below, for anyone wanting to understand how Newcrest is already using technology to optimise all aspects of mining which of course leads to cost efficiencies, the case studies below are a great read/watch so you can understand the reference to 'digital enablers'.

Really looking forward to seeing both cutting edge technology and renewable energy being a focus at Havieron, perhaps it may in time prove to be a benchmark for other similar projects.

https://www.osisoft.com/customer-storie ... -pi-system

https://resources.osisoft.com/presentat ... -processes

https://www.osisoft.com/customer-storie ... ing%20soft

https://download1476.mediafire.com/wrq1 ... ptions.ods

I have had a look at what we might expect from Newcrest in the DFS in Q4.

It is clear that some of the assumptions used by Greatland in the RNS's of 12 October 2021 and 3 March 2022 have proved to be a little optimistic and I therefore expect Newcrest to be more aligned to their recent forecasts, particularly those following their annual results in August 2022.

Nevertheless as the spreadsheets show, the project is still incredibly viable though slightly less than GGP were expecting even only as recently as March.

They are still only forecasts and spreadsheet assumptions and as such cannot be taken to be the definitive position.

Great spreadsheet L-A, it still looks like an extremely viable project using those assumptions and indeed it's good to know that Havieron would continue to be very profitable even in the event of much lower asset prices and I think your assumptions are very grounded and sensible.

Those are the kind of projects that manage to accomplish the feat of obtaining funding despite current conditions and certainly if we enjoy an inflow of money into the sector should in theory be at the top of the shopping list for investors. Spot price should hopefully be a fair margin above $1400 by production along with inflation cooling down and abating somewhat leading to a faster payback period and increased FCF - we'll know soon enough.

Personally, I'd want the DFS in place for their AGM in early Nov to try and add a positive spin if i worked at NCM - but my expectations are very much 'expect the unexpected' when it comes to GGP these days after we've been wrong footed so many times, maybe NCM read these boards and love messing with us lot

If NCM somehow decided not to mine I think it would be a huge mistake on their part, and give Greatland and its backers an opportunity to purchase the other 70% of Havieron at fair value. I just cannot see this happening.
What is a fair price?
US$ 60 million was regarded as too high a hurdle to pay by NCM so lets say US$50 million for 5%.
US$50 million x 14 gives US$700 million for the remaining 70%, possibly would have to pay a bit more
Wyloo metals (deep pockets) would be rubbing their hands with excitement if this were to happen as I am sure they would want Havieron mined.
What would then happen to Telfer?
As far as I can see Havieron is critical to Telfers survival as new found deposits take several years from discovery till a decision to mine and around one in 2000 make it that far.
Telfer has been in production for the past 45 years and grades will soon become uneconomical to mine with decommissioning on the horizon and making the workforce redundant.
This is why this decline is pressing ahead at Havieron to get high quality ore for the Telfer mill which will then make it viable for many years to come and save NCM millions of dollars otherwise.
I think when NCM refused the extra 5%, GGP had no funding to mine in place and would have had to raise funds soon for ongoing exploration and day to day running expenses. They could then have stepped in to save the day with a buyout
The tide looks to have turned with GGP fully funded with a high quality board in place they will now have to be considered more of an equal or NCM may lose out in one of the best Australian gold/copper discoveries of recent times.
I have probably just stated the obvious to others but it seems to be the only hurdle left before we can progress to mining.

Newcrest haven't spent near $0.5bn USD to decide not to mine.
They haven't started a PRODUCTION READY decline PRE-DFS to decide not to mine.
They aren't tendering and securing multi year contracts and manpower around production and processing related areas to decide not to mine.
They aren't spending time and money on processing and exploring for additional lower grade Telfer pockets to keep Telfer running until Havieron comes on-line to decide not to mine.
They aren't planning on Telfer facilities evolving into a regional hub in their portfolio as Telfer Province to decide not to mine.
They haven't also continued into additional farm-in phases with various JV partners in the Paterson Region because they plan to mothball Telfer and decide not to mine.
IMO Havieron is being green-lit and being more than fully funded for our share of costs, we will soon be owners of 30% of one of the biggest Gold/Copper discoveries in many a long year... and perhaps a sprinkling of nickel on top of the cake.
These funding partners, mining industry leaders and top tier Banks haven't agreed to come join the GGP journey because they expect NCM not to decide to mine.
DFS and DTM may be occurring into a weak market but IMO we'll see a production rerate to some extent and the sector will rerate at some point from what appears to be a near bottom.
It's been a very unsettling and difficult two years since the euphoria of 2020 but we mustn't lose sight of the huge and monumental fact we are now fully funded