GGPChat

Here's a surprising fact:

There are 49 constituents of GDX... but 39 of these, are ALSO listed with us in the GDXJ.

I combined both in excel to identify the overlap and highlighted double prints yellow.

What this excise does is visually illustrate just how tiny the investable universe of serious gold miners ( with serious discoveries / Production) actually is.

And of note, one constituent, St Barbara Mines, has today agreed to buy Genesis Minerals for US $367m. Now, Genesis is a smallish company with circa 2moz at 1.6g/t Leonora Gold Project . https://www.mining.com/web/st-barbara-t ... 367m-deal/

https://genesisminerals.com.au/leonora-gold-project :
"The current Mineral Resource of the Leonora Gold Project stands at 39.3Mt at 1.6g/t Au for 2Moz. This provides a strong foundation for Genesis’ development as a future mid-tier Australian gold company".

What does ggp have, say in feb? Well 30% of 9.6Moz presently delineated - so that's 3.2moz share of a 10moz, fully funded, and in construction with a T1 partner... plus the nickel .... and with two further potential massive block 2g/t caves, waiting in the wings, for a further ( I estimate) net 3-6moz total to GGP so potentially that's GGP with 6-8moz and 30-50 year mine life.

Thats a Billion Dollar company if I've ever seen one...
As Pierre Lassonde says ... sat on a mine like Havieron you’re in Nirvana.

And GDX... is potentially closer than you think.

23m to buy on Friday - Van Eck.
Z

May be a stupid question but what if there is not 23 million shares available

Essentially - Price keeps going up until stock becomes available.

GDXJ is going though significant changes due to rebalance, presently deleting some of the big name constituents with high allocations like Fresnillo £4.5bn mcap and 2.4% pf GDXJ and Yamana to be deleted next review - $4.2bn (which is presently circa 6% of GDXJ) and is being bought by Agnico Eagle (not in the GDXJ index) and Pan American Silver... so in-principle PAM Silver increases by around 3% (by acquiring 50% of Yamana) but as it's already 4% the that could get booted too because the can't have individual companies representing more than 6-7% of the index.

I note GDXJ has added FILO mining this week at 1.62% to replace prorata 50% of the Fresnillo position; hence FILO was up 10-15% on Monday when the GDXJ AP started buying.

Thanks for your input hydro.

Happy to keep posting guys... We're all in this together.

And i can tell you, it's getting seriously ugly out there. There's a major default / credit event coming... most probably in the US commercial property sector. And it's all happening at a faster pace now.

The uniquely American “bear market fomo rallies” were lasting a couple of days... Now they last a couple of hours.

The credit event is coming, possibly within weeks now... (not months). No wonder the Chinese, UK and governments globallly are dumping US treasuries, like there’s no tomorrow.

There's a sh*t tonne of US corporate debt, due to be refinanced on 10 year debt notes dropping in 2022/23. It’s so bad, that giant property funds are gating themselves to redemptions, faster than dodgy crypto exchanges.

Goldmans and JPM are too terrified to mark any of it to market … (or put an annual market price on) Trillions of $ worth of REITs and property assets whilst the Chinese keep selling them. (So we know what they are worth).

Plus there’s another $200bn of distressed corporate junk debt to refinance and that’s not happening either. Not at 15%…

Wall Street is literally Sh*tting bricks about it.

The 2-10y bond spread says it all - ie the yield curve inversion - is at -78 basis points and in full bone chilling Antarctic mode ; the lowest since 1980.

The FED reserve’s decision to tightening into a recession was a major, no frigging epic policy error. One of many, over the past two years. They are either ducking clueless, or It was a deliberate act, that they screwed it up so bad (to inflate away 30-40% or more of all government debt…) The academic economists informing FED policy should be fired and charged with criminal negligence. They have literally created a total economic disaster (out of covid).

Pension funds globally of course will get badly hit… because by law in Q1 they will be forced to take the mark-to-market price of this massive commercial real estate collapse…

And soon they will be buying a lot more gold and miners. Because it will literally be the only thing - bar Walmart and possibly McDonald’s and the like - that’s going up…

The bull market in miners will be life changing for those that can hold on….

Just Think about all those marginal ounces at Havieron. I’m not 100% certain on the numbers, but IMO the eastern breccia and northern breccias could pretty much double or even triple in profitability, at $2500 gold.

Also guys, loving the fact that now almost every post I make here is getting a thumbs down from some unaccountable T**t...

Nice to know that's all they can do....



And getting my posts removed is simply not possible.
Thanks Liam.

Could get very interesting in the not to distant future, lots to look forward to

Hi Hydro - I am one of those who loves reading your thoughts/views - I admit that when you talk in terms suggesting that you have the inside track more than any of the rest of us, I sometimes question in my own mind whether I should trust a word you say. But I look at it like this - you don’t ever say anything negative or detrimental to GGP and I keep my fingers crossed that just a fraction of what you do post just comes off. My own research dictates why I am invested as a Lther here and frankly I find your posts more encouraging and thought provoking than a lot of the tripe on LSE - so please keep posting and thanks - Red.

Hi Redirons.

I’ve spent a lot of time pulling together information from trusted fund management friends and industry and
Professional sources on the geology side - and twitter is brilliant. I’m not talking the Chart monkeys or ZeroHedge…. I mean real accountable transparent, PEOPLE, with proven track records willing and motivated to be straight/honest. There's an incredible amount of Wall Street sell side 'narrative' pumped into the mainstream market to deceive us... either to create volume to sell into SPX/Nasdaq or a cheaper entry price (in the case of gold and miners).

I also listen closely to a very few Fintwits in no particular order:

Hedgeye ( totally independent macro economic research and data trends, backed by 40+ independent analysts)
Kieth Mcullough
Danielle de Martino Booth (macro risk and intel on the Fed)
Otavio Costa (macro interpretation)
Jeff Snyder (on bond markets and Eurodollar markets)
Joseph Wang (fed intel)
macroAlf
Pierre Lassonde
Michael Burry (astute observations and positioning)
Peter Schiffe
Frank Guistra
Luke Groman (Energy and macro trends and just the big picture)
Doomberg
Lynn Alden
Jim Rickards
Gareth Soloway (charts and technical)
Mark Minervini (trading trends)
David Brady (charts Trading Trends)
and of course Zoltan Pozsar

They don’t agree on everything, and some bring special insight from their experience.

I distill down what’s relevant to my investment thesis and rather shamelessly share it, because I realise now, more than ever, that the macro matters above everything else...

You can have the biggest copper, oil, lithium or gold discovery on the planet but the macro revalues or devalues it by a factor of 5-10x …

The Macro will skin you alive as we have just experienced. It’s taken a long time, listening to Rick Rule and Daniella Cambone et al banging the drum for gold … but now I'm certain, the Goldilocks zone for gold has truly arrived.

Gold anticipates and front runs the macro... Gold rocketed when the fed printed covid money in 2020. Gold dropped in anticipation of the fed raising rates. Gold now rises in anticipation of inflation for longer and negative real interest rates for longer, a recession and/or a fed pivot in response to recession because at some point the dollar will collapse.

So when the non gold bugs - Mark Minervini and Keith Mcullough start down this track - you know it has legs.
https://twitter.com/markminervini/statu ... lang=en-GB

The investment universe has in the last 2-3 months undertaken a once in a generation paradigm shift - a regime change - where Chair Powell decided to fight inflation using backward looking data and refuse to listen to the market signals (and of course to not print more money for now... ) There is no pivot. No more easy money. Assets will be revalued accordingly. Profitless growth stocks that once outperforming everything don't work in a regime of higher interest rates, for longer. Amazon Apple and Tesla still have a long way to fall.

What worked for the past 10 years is now finished. And when the panic stricken long only hedge funds, with their quant trading algos and bots realise the magnitude of this regime shift... As the Saudis sell their oil in gold.. and the Brics come up with their own gold backed reserve currency. And bond values continue to steadily fall.. I think the gold miners will already be sky high.

No need for the reply Hydro - but certainly glad you did - thanks again Red.

I want to echo what Redirons posted. Hyrdogen your posts at a minimum give people food for thought, are interesting and it is up to us to take what we want from them. Plenty of us enjoy reading up on what we have invested in, so the likes of yourself and those who need no name checking are more than welcome. Keep up the great work.