GGPChat

Lots of discussion around the various sites about dilution and the impact of that on market capitalisation.
Take a look at the graph below which has over two years of history of both the number of shares in issue along with the market capitalisation. Data was taken as at the middle of each month ie close of business on the 15th. Market Cap being a simple multiplication of shares in issue and share price.

ATB RA

Forgive my ignorance RA... but I genuinely see little to zero correlation between GGP price and dilution.

Interesting chart share fella much appreciated

Maybe a good pause to refrain from moaning about dilution and consider that the SP was taken down specifically for a T/O attempt.
Nothing more, nothing less IMO.

Interesting to see our leading lady and Twiggy both speaking at Davos this week, pragmatically discussing our Green Energy Future...

I do often wonder when Liz G and 00Day are going to get their nickel out...? If you want the greenest bottle neck metal in your arsenal, Nickel is it.

Just look how its held up 18% up YoY = best of the all the industrial metals bar Lithium at 40% up...

And Dr Copper up 31% from the recent lows. Wow!

I see according to Trafigura Copper inventory has also fallen off the proverbial cliff... Good to know we have - IMO - from 8 - 12.5million tonnes of the stuff conservatively... .

I heard, last week, we need 5-8 Escondida mine equivalents ( 1.2Mtp/a) of copper replacement to produce enough copper to satisfy predicted green demand by 2030.

(Great listen here : https://open.spotify.com/episode/43EFuF ... 310Ow&nd=1 )

All the big upcoming mines listed including (Wafi Golpu - PNG , Rico Deep - Pakistan, Cascabel - Ecuador , Kamoa Kakula - DRC , Nigomba, Zambia, Udoke Cooper project Russia , Resolution copper mine Nevada 2100m deep block cave...

All this lot added together = about roughly 1 Escondida. Yup! from ALL those upcoming big 5 replacement mines combined...

Now, TBF they didn't mention Rio's Oyu Tolgoi which goes into production in 2023 at a target of 500kt Pa so thats another half an Escondida.

So where the flying duck are the other 3.5 -7 Escondidas coming from... ?

Because the rest are more or less tiddlers by comparison. And Cascabel is still 5-6 years away

Some say... Copper going to to the moon. Coz there just isn't enough.

Hi Hydro - Thanks for the response.

Lots of info in there, much of it more macro rather than the micro of shares in issue and market Cap.

Not sure that I was trying to prove that there was any correlation between price and dilution, simply trying to show visually the extent of the dilution and the impact that has had on our market cap. It was certainly not a moan, just an attempt to put some facts out there that are not easy to find elsewhere in this format.

Whether the SP was deliberately taken down (for a takeover) or was just a consequence of Covid mania/GDXJ/market forces/Lassonde phenomenon, I suspect that I will never know. However, I feel that those negative influences are now pretty much behind us and therefore the opportunity is definitely in front of us - commodities cycle looking good, PoG improving, looking to be fully funded and DFS and DTM to come soon. Oh and that doesn't include the opportunity of a further strike somewhere on one of our 100% owned tenements.

ATB RA

Hi Hydro,

Always enjoy reading your posts.

"Maybe a good pause to refrain from moaning about dilution and consider that the SP was taken down specifically for a T/O attempt.
Nothing more, nothing less IMO.

With the sp still being managed imo, do you not think there is still a possibility of a takeover bid looming.

Regards.

Hi Tickingtin

Recognise that you asked the question of Hydro, but I shall chip in with my thoughts.

In my mind, there are two reasons to short:
1. To drive the price down by laddering in order to then buy back at a lower price and pocket the difference.
2. To drive the price down in preparation for a takeover.

I believe that we have definitely been subject to the first of these and possibly (only possibly) the second. Looking at how shares on loan seem to be creeping back up, it appears that there may be someone still active in the first space, however I feel that the opportunity is significantly diminished - we appear to have bottomed out (I hope) so the only opportunity in this space is to trade on the highs and lows in any channels that may form.

As far as driving down the price in preparation for a takeover, I believe that (if it were a thing), it has now passed. The additional shares in the tribeca and Wyloo options would have added a significant barrier in the event of any hostile takeover. It's possible that the the large return of shares on loan that we saw some months ago was the takeover party throwing in the towel.

AIMHO.
ATB RA

Hi RA,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Regards.

Updated to show until Mid May. Snapshot taken monthly - mid month.