GGPChat

Very interesting to read the article in The Australian about Newcrest shareholders not entirely happy with appointing Sherry Duhe as full-time CEO, and would prefer someone from outside the company with operational experience, rather than coming from a financial background.

The particular comment about her probably selling the Havieron project if she takes over, or whoever else takes the helm, would be a very significant change of direction for Newcrest, but it has been touted that they might sell both Havieron and Telfer.

It would be great if GGP we were able to buy the rest of Havieron, and I wonder if anyone thinks that it is a distinct possibility, especially with the financial clout our new investees and BoD additions have? Or is this just pie in the sky?

I welcome people's thoughts, but would make sense if and when they did decide to sell it.

Hi MM - I personally fail to believe this speculation probably just because NCM did not purchase the extra 5%. They have surely invested a huge amount to get Havieron to where it is now and as we know the NCM have been crying out for more dividends and less promise of jam tomorrow. Surely with Hav on the cusp of hitting ore which will reenergise Telfer why sell both now? They have produced their own MRE’s and working on the DFS so know exactly what is down there - how do you sell a multi-decade income producing asset if what we’ve been told about Hav is true, when there’s your shareholder appeasing dividends right there? Also how easy is it for a Joint Venture partner to sell their 70% - are there caveats that give GGP first options to buy, or is it even more restrictive than that?
Doesn’t ring true from a commercial sense to me and therefore it’s just another rumour to ignore imho!!! Good luck to us all.

IMO this report is illogical thinking by some disgruntled Newcrest shareholders purely to prevent S Duhe being appointed to the major CEO Job, No more, No less.
I do concur that we should ignore it completely and think any potential suitor would be ashamed to launch their campaign with such a piffling opening shot/rumour.
To all of us I say "Keep the faith in what we have".

Spot on Poni - well said!!

I have to say ... This does broadly fit the narrative that has been discussed with me: Ie Wyloo to consolidate the Patterson in the search for copper gold and nickle.

But is Newcrest now the target...? Do NCM have to defend themselves ( ...from Barrick ).
Intel suggests: The "Canadians are Coming" ... (hilariously Spymaster25 was only 1.5 years ahead of the game).
This has been suggested by Aus based NCM 'connected' people who are still speculating but, shall we say, on a good “ hunch.”

https://twitter.com/Mr72Capital/status/ ... 1R3N7mgGeQ

Hence Alastair Clayton's immediate retort earlier today... (This narrative has been about for some time)
https://twitter.com/Mr72Capital/status/ ... 1R3N7mgGeQ

So what's the deal...?

NCM are on the rails... Sandeep has been fired. Their P/E stinks a bit, frankly... (Newmont P/E 41, while Newcrest P/E 11.3)

So... comparatively, they are cheap.. Barrick want reserves. They specialise in buying them rather than drilling ... And they have the cash.

So potentially what's the on cards...?

Well, reading between the lines, essentially, a beauty parade, for Havieron.. that's what. Telfer and Havieron up for sale to the highest bidder... ?

And what a beauty Parade this is set to be? - think about it! - NCM want the best price for HAV/ Telfer... for their Shareholders - that means best foot forward to defend against Barrick, who are more interested in the NA assets.

I can’t see them trying to sell Hav until updated resource is issued and potentially feasibility study. If this is the route they’re going down, could be big resource update with Bulk underground speculation honed for good measure, too.

This is where Wyloo step in, and 'consolidate the Patterson region' and get Shaun Day to run it all using GGP as the vehicle.

We have a massive value accreating three way... Wyloo v Barrick for GGP ...? So Wyloo take Telfer and use Shaun to run it...

Telfer's been a noose around NCMs neck for over 10 years, slipping from loss to profit to loss again... but that's principally because it's been basically badly run... and turnaround is 00Day's Northern Star speciality. He could cut 30% of the workforce, renegotiate the ludicrous old school NCM perks and transform Telfer operationally, inside 6-12 months.

Shaun Day has obviously done serious due diligence on Havieron...(before taking the MD role). Can't help but ponder... Did he figure he could get Wyloo in from the start?

NCM also have to make the decision to mine, otherwise GGP has the right, but not the obligation , to purchase the other 70% at FMV...

Boot firmly on other foot!!

Hmmm... I was Almost 'Bang on' over 18 months ago
just exchange Barrick for Newmont...

From sep 23...
"I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer."

Please explain FB.

New Newmont strategy thread, recently resurrected, page 1 para 2.

FuttBucker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 3:06 pm From sep 23...
"I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer."

Thing is Futtbcuker - it all still absolutely 100% true. All of it.

But whatever you say pal - genuine investors know I will keep them up to speed - and that as a genuine, proven reliable, LTH I have their best interests at heart...

hard for the likes of you to believe I realise.

Let the posts do the talking. And Shaun steering Havieron can do the rest.

good luck.

Sorry H2 but I'm not part of whatever group you think I am. I've been here and since early covid and have only gotten deeper since then.

Perhaps not as LT as others around here, but long enough to be sick of hearing "jam tomorrow/kaboom/short squeeze" every day for three years, only to be told "I told you so" and a quick massage of the narrative as soon as there's an uptick.

I'm positive on the stock. That's why I hold so much of it (plus a dash of sunk costs fallacy I suppose). I'm always happy to hear news and theories. My issue is that it's always definitely nailed on about today go kaboom, and anyone who suggests otherwise gets attacked ad hom, and/or called a shill for shorters.

Hey FB

Thing is markets do what markets do. And very little of it is truly logical. Much of it is bent, emotional or leaked to the elites (at the highest level - and yes even from the us government agencies themselves) and we just get battered about.

Every week you can see the US jobs report or the CPI data leaked and market reaction, well ahead of the official release.

Consequently: We get lucky and we get unlucky… but when you consider the Havieron deposit and the people at the helm, sometimes you concluded that something just doesn’t add up. Or It doesn’t make sense as it should.

So I always look out for independent opinion about Havieron, about Shaun, and about his team. Information that helps to provide useful corroboration and context. I listen people whose opinions are independent and they not pushing a book or an agenda….

So I Listen to this old school independent Australian titan of mining, Owen Hegerty, talk openly about the (new GGP) old stars of FMG:

Building “Acorns into Behemoths”

It’s quite fascinating: listen from 38mins

https://youtu.be/e9CAnaFEoHQ?si=JA-ofGrcEiq0NDmb