Gold momentum... finally turned +ve today ( on a technical basis )
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:40 am
Just watched this Hedgeye Risk Management | Deep Dive: Katie Stockton 1-on-1 with Danielle DiMartino Booth (gosh she's good)
Join this "Deep Dive" for a live, in-studio one-on-one between Quill Intelligence CEO & Chief Strategist Danielle DiMartino Booth and the Street’s best technical Analyst : Watch their full conversation FREE: http://bit.ly/3X0RS2X
Ha Ha!! Around 35mins, oh boy is she's loving gold with GLD one of their '4 positions' in her ETF (T2 and T4 treasuries and energy the others)
So our chart TA ETF expert claims ... "Gold momentum has, on a technical basis, only just turned to the upside"....
Hmmm...? just imagine what's ahead...!!!
I'll help follow that through.... And IMO it's got 25 to 41p written all over it based on PE ratios of like for like peer groups
https://companiesmarketcap.com/mining/m ... -pe-ratio/
Northern Star PE 10
NCM 11
Evolution mining 15.1
Endeavor mining 18.6
Barrick gold 22.9
Ivanhoe 23.9
[Yamana Gold ( recent take over bid ) 33.8
Newmont 42.3
Agnico Eagle 38
Oz minerals 16.8
K92 mining 51.4
Sandstorm 13.5
So our basket of goldie PE ratios = low end P/E 15 , mid 25 and high P/E 30+
GGP SLOS mine = 3mt at 3.8g/t AU equivalent x 0.90% recovery = 330koz = 99koz net GGP
99koz x Price of gold minus ASIC = Earnings. (I have increased AISC from $650 to $800 - due to inflation) and assumed gold price of $2000 (I chose $2k because I don't think gold has truly reflected inflation fully, yet) so cash flow of $1200/oz x 99k = $118m dollars. ( You could take $1920 gold for today's price. And get $110m annual earnings ).
So if you take a 'starter' PE ratio for GGP (in line with industry peers) as 15x earnings (which is low/conservative given the factors outlined above) and take conservative annual revenue as $110m - 115m by 2025/6 then we should trade at $1.7bn mcap trading at 15x earnings (...or 25p). With a freaking huge 15 year Tier 1 mine life ahead of us, and a bulk project also pencilled and in the offing... (incoming Beauty Parade)
Reality is the P/E could be more like 25x which implies market cap of $2.875bn or £2.3bn (or around 41p)
This is only for the starter mine SLOS ... and based on a limited production profile.
Add a haul shaft and you could add another 1 - 1.5mt so another 20-30% profitability...
Remember, this is now become one mahoosive beauty parade... NCM need to sell Hav or make her 'shine like pearl'... either way it's soon to be rockets at dawn again...
And with Gold momentum only just turning +ve on a technical basis just today then... $2.3k to $3k gold must realistically be bolted on, by 2025...?
Join this "Deep Dive" for a live, in-studio one-on-one between Quill Intelligence CEO & Chief Strategist Danielle DiMartino Booth and the Street’s best technical Analyst : Watch their full conversation FREE: http://bit.ly/3X0RS2X
Ha Ha!! Around 35mins, oh boy is she's loving gold with GLD one of their '4 positions' in her ETF (T2 and T4 treasuries and energy the others)
So our chart TA ETF expert claims ... "Gold momentum has, on a technical basis, only just turned to the upside"....
Hmmm...? just imagine what's ahead...!!!
I'll help follow that through.... And IMO it's got 25 to 41p written all over it based on PE ratios of like for like peer groups
https://companiesmarketcap.com/mining/m ... -pe-ratio/
Northern Star PE 10
NCM 11
Evolution mining 15.1
Endeavor mining 18.6
Barrick gold 22.9
Ivanhoe 23.9
[Yamana Gold ( recent take over bid ) 33.8
Newmont 42.3
Agnico Eagle 38
Oz minerals 16.8
K92 mining 51.4
Sandstorm 13.5
So our basket of goldie PE ratios = low end P/E 15 , mid 25 and high P/E 30+
GGP SLOS mine = 3mt at 3.8g/t AU equivalent x 0.90% recovery = 330koz = 99koz net GGP
99koz x Price of gold minus ASIC = Earnings. (I have increased AISC from $650 to $800 - due to inflation) and assumed gold price of $2000 (I chose $2k because I don't think gold has truly reflected inflation fully, yet) so cash flow of $1200/oz x 99k = $118m dollars. ( You could take $1920 gold for today's price. And get $110m annual earnings ).
So if you take a 'starter' PE ratio for GGP (in line with industry peers) as 15x earnings (which is low/conservative given the factors outlined above) and take conservative annual revenue as $110m - 115m by 2025/6 then we should trade at $1.7bn mcap trading at 15x earnings (...or 25p). With a freaking huge 15 year Tier 1 mine life ahead of us, and a bulk project also pencilled and in the offing... (incoming Beauty Parade)
Reality is the P/E could be more like 25x which implies market cap of $2.875bn or £2.3bn (or around 41p)
This is only for the starter mine SLOS ... and based on a limited production profile.
Add a haul shaft and you could add another 1 - 1.5mt so another 20-30% profitability...
Remember, this is now become one mahoosive beauty parade... NCM need to sell Hav or make her 'shine like pearl'... either way it's soon to be rockets at dawn again...
And with Gold momentum only just turning +ve on a technical basis just today then... $2.3k to $3k gold must realistically be bolted on, by 2025...?