GGPChat

WOW finally - I'm so happy!!! This is starting to fall into place. It's been pretty obvious from the outset Wyloo were brought in as Trojan horse / White Knight to 'protect' GGP from NCM...

Their own interests are of course... 'served' ... BUT Forrest knew NCM were vulnerable to a bid, all along.

Setting up the stage Pierre Lassonde stye for gold mining bidding war of the century for NCMs best assets... Seems like NCM have given up the fight for survival it's just a matter of how much wonga will be required to step up to the golden plate.

As Pierre Lassonde once said: When you have a copper/gold asset with a 30 year life "You're in Nirvana" ... meanwhile the market has been saying to us PIs "you're a numpty for still holding GGP" or "there must be a problem with GGP??? ". Think about that. Think about all the planted hatched job trolls and NEWS articles...

IMO the market has been tactically manipulated lower, specifically to facilitate a 2022 NCM/GGP buy out, that has now since totally backfired culminating into:

The Canadians Really are freaking coming and next bleeding week . ( hat doffed to Spymaster25) You really were on the money with your "predictions".

Friends at international gold companies aside... Mark this day, basically... It is the beginning of the Havieron bidding war process. The pistol has been fired. Sandeep's been fired and Sherry “bean counting” Duhe's defo ain't getting the top job either.

I expect NCM could, well, absolutely fly tonight - well maybe 20% up totally doable. Why? Because NCM is cheap as chips with a huge production pipeline… and I mean massive…

NCM P/E ratio is 11 while Barrick's 21 and Newmont's 39
https://companiesmarketcap.com/mining/m ... -pe-ratio/

Barrick Mcap $32bn for 4.1moz to 4.2 moz of gold - earnings $4.48bn
Newcrest $13.98bn for 2.2moz of gold production - earnings $1.22 B.

Now for the juicy part... There are simply hardly any - a tiny handful of 'un-mined' 20-30moz gold-copper deposits on the planet 'poised' for production...

Wyloo certainly won't let their 8.5% go... not easy - not without a massive bun fight...IMO they will be snapping at their 15% allocation in a flash.

I can't wait for the "Havieron beauty parade.." NCM now have no choice but to 'sing like canaries' about Havieron going forward... this is now a full blown 'cards on the table' moment for NCM...

Er, Hello Mr. Nickel at Depth

So What’s going off this week.? A shiny New 15moz MRE from NCM ???

Hilarious that Shaun was not willing to comment on 'press speculation' just last week. Ground works complete he just gets to sit back and watch the fireworks going off now... not that he will of course, but at least someone else is doing the heavy lifting for a bit…

Any Sellers better buy that stock back, and fast boys, and close your shorts ... cos the GGP bad boy is hotting right up …. to Lava like temperature

So what happens next ? How does the Havieron cookie crumble.. ? Will NCM be "Broken up Sum of the Parts style...and sold as a package with Telfer?" Or Will there be a JV Exit Clause the means GGP gets the right but not the obligation to purchase 100%...? Ooof, now that will be interesting.

We certainly appear to have the Canadians coming ... (I recall Spy being ridiculed for that comment by the resident Clowns. Amusing to see who will have the last laugh??).

How bloody exciting..? It was also pretty obvious that this share was taken down by pros to shake out PIs ...who for the most part have held through thick and thin... well done folks. But this is transformational news... we have 'big' buyer in town. And that lifts everything.

Full take over would essentially make Barrick the biggest gold miner in the world. I think there's no doubt they will want 100% of Havieron: Hidden Jewel in the NCM Crown. An oven ready, next to infrastructure absolutely massive and open at depth and 3 directions 30 year T1 project... located in Australia, the safest of all gold jurisdictions - way safer than Justin “WEF” Trudo's "we'll block you and your friends bank account" for vax protests Canada.

Popcorn time... " If you have a 30 year copper-gold asset you're in .... Nirvana " And nevermind if you don’t like Divis ... you get to swim in cash too…

Lots of fun & games to come.

https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/sta ... 588uA&s=08

Now on Bloomberg too
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

Oh, so it's Newmont then, not Barrick, Hydro?
Z

I thought lse was the place for one upmanship? Who cares if someone thought it was barrick or newmont ffs grow up!!

Zorro, do get a life.

Gates blown open. Bidding war commences. M&A totally ignites the sector with $16.9bn NM offer for NCM

It’s a pretty poor offer for SH … just 21% premium… (but it’s a start) An opener if you like. I would hope/expect 30-40% premium in the end.

The good part is that the newmont dividend program is excellent…. But their PE is much higher 39 v 11 so an all share deal means they are paying less per Oz than it appears Newmont values gold at - ie a cheeky bid … but m&a situation is hotting up big time. A reasonable starting offer if you’re an institution…

Could well open the gate to a counter offer from Barrick

So pre bid:

NCM P/E ratio was 11 while
Barrick's 21 and
Newmont's 38.5

https://companiesmarketcap.com/mining/m ... -pe-ratio/

Barrick Mcap $32bn for 4.1moz to 4.2 moz of gold production - for $11bn revenue and earnings of $4.48bn
Ratio mcap to gold production 0.13125
ratio revenues to gold production = $2.6bn per moz prod

Newcrest $13.98bn for 2.2moz of gold production - with revenue at $4.4bn and earnings $1.22 B.
Ratio mcap to gold production = 0.158
ratio revenues to gold production = 2bn per moz prod

Newmont $39bn for 6.2moz gold for $12bn revenue and just $0.8bn earnings..
Ratio mcap to gold production 0.158
ratio revenues to gold production $1.93bn per mOz prod

But Newmont pays 4% divided yield v Barrick 2.7% and NCM 1.75%

Barrick is the most profitable company, with best earnings per moz production

I Expect they will have a better offer to come.

NCMs anti GGP tactics, are totally screwed now and GGP will go beserek... with JPM stood down , natural price discovery is firmly dead ahead.

Because, they have no choice: In a Newmont take over scenario NCM has to put ALL their valuation cards on the table ...

Because, it transpires, the implied value of GGP could well read through to the implied value of, er Telfer….? Duh!

And now, after probably losing their jobs,
NCMs Business Development Unit in Melbourne, finally hits the Road to Damascus… Te-rah JPM!! Close the door on your way out chaps.

According to Daniel Morgan's analysis, just in, NCM will be 'forced to reveal new information' about Havieron.

He apportions $1.9bn value to Telfer/Hav for NCMs stake (but we know that Telfer is next to worthless (or more probably a huge $250m liability w/o Havieorn)

Ok let’s take $1.9bn = That's just the NCM share ..... this implies GGPs share = (There’s 14 5s in 70%) so $1.9bn /14 = $136m per 5% x 6 for GGPs 30% = $814m

Presently GGPs Mcap NEEDS to roughly double from £404 to 13/14p a share.

And that's before anything else exciting happens...

So what NEW secrets will NCM be forced to "reveal" to up their Telfer/Havieron valuation...???????

Block Cave Draft PFS?
SLOS upped to 4-6mt with haul shafts? (Callum just suggested 5Mt)
Nickle ... Mmmmmmmmmm?
Callum now quoted “there’s significant grade at depth”
Oh and Ps: Havieron just became a Tier 1 gold asset overnight
Maybe Shaun could drum up our Valmin code approved 14x$65m for the 70% and slip them a £1 for Telfer?

Someone recently said over the 5% debacle in total despondence, “we need a new JV partner..”,

Well, now it looks as if we have one. Good work Shaun.

Read it and weep shorter James (now banned from Twitter for being a hateful troll).
(and where's LSEs itsouthhere and my fav Gymplode.....?)

Getting margin called no doubt.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... 206-p5cicu

Hydro,
Nearer to the truth than you know. We like your posts!
We could of course all be slightly off track, but we do however maintain our position.
Best of luck to us all.

I'll give you that, Hydro - that link sums it all up and joins the dots, especially after the two latest BoD members joined..
FM and NS must now be in the cross hairs for a buy out of Telfer/Hav.
Nice one.
Z

I still stand by my assertion... Zoros
Barrick are also planning a bid IMO.
Watch this space..
The process has only just begun
NCM under huge pressure to up their game on asset value..
Multiple analysts including Dan Morgan insist: There's MORE to be revealed about Havieron (If didn't you know...? )
Meanwhile GGP rockets back to fair value...
I said we'd get a 20-30% day, when JPM leave.
Its been a long winter.... Hello 16 - 20p (my old friend)... is all I'm saying.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/b ... 023-02-07/

Seems not.
Z

It's only day 2 Zoros.
The 'absolute' denial makes prefect sense today, to avoid ramping up the NCM price (which is up ~3% I note, overnight, beyond the bid)
Next week/month it will be a very different story. (So I'm informed...)
But who can truly know the mind of Bristow?
Why do you think there's so much press coverage of his move(s)..?
Because IMO it's widely suspected, by those in the know, there's something afoot.

So are the Canadians really coming ……!
That souls hot things up a bit !