Notes from LSE Town Hall Zoom Q&A - 09 Mar 2023
Interview:
https://youtu.be/dfGizwf7pfg
Scallywag RNS:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/g ... ry/rgn4kzw
HY Results RNS:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/g ... ry/rd3z44x
Created from a software transcript export
You can download a PDF that inc. slides if reading this on the GGPChat forum using the link at the end of the transcript.
Part 1 of 2 - Presentation
*Thanks very much to you all for taking the effort to attend this afternoon we really do appreciate it thank you very much, or those who don't already know me I am Donald Leggett head of investor relations at London Southeast and it's my job to host the next hour and make sure your questions get to Shaun in some kind of a reasonable order. Shaun will speak to slides initially for say 15 minutes and then we'll spend what remains of an hour taking your questions.
We already have lots of those, you've got them to us nicely in advance so thanks to everyone for getting those questions and do keep sending us more, we'll take them live as well just to let you know London Southeast will have a stand at this year's delayed Master Investor show on Saturday April the 15th, we'll be recording a live version of our Investing podcast with your host Pete Higgins, it's a really very enjoyable private investment event so do look out for us there and say hello if you're there.
Back to this afternoon and Shaun, we have the latest Scallywag drill results and a feasibility study to talk about as GGP focuses on growth what else would be we'd be focusing on as well as untangling Newmont’s bid for Newcrest so the next hour certainly won't be dull, Shaun welcome back to London from all the investors
- hi Donald and thank you very much for hosting the event and to London Southeast and of course really appreciate people dialling in, as Donald said because I'll try to be quite brief on the presentation so we can really move through the Q&A
- look I still do love to orientate people around the three pillars of our strategy it's very clear we want to deliver and expand Havieron, continue to invest in the drill bit which is a real focus for us and be positioned for opportunistic growth
- the board itself I think again our shareholders understand that but I think the quality of the board that we have in place and the management team with that is extraordinary for a company of our size just in December Mark Barnaba formally joined along with Elizabeth Gaines, Mark sits on the Reserve Bank of Australia the equivalent of the bank of England former Global head of resources for Macquarie Bank
- Elizabeth just stood down as CEO of 70 billion dollar Fortescue and sits on the Fortescue board and just the board of Greatland and of course Jimmy Wilson we had joined earlier this year from BHP widely seen as 2nd in Command (2IC) and the operational horsepower at BHP
- the board is exceptional you know this is the board of a top listed company anywhere in the world and that's also allowed us to bring in a great team, we restructured our team a little bit, now everyone's in the Perth office and with that we brought in Jeremy Maynard and a business development team from Fortescue in a really friendly way and that puts us, it gives us a centre of gravity to be able to pursue some of the opportunities that we think are available to us and we also completed our operational team with Simon Tyrell out of Northern Star where I used to be , he's had worked at Telfer before in his career and he's just a great fit close out the operational team we needed
- again I think people understand we have the debt and equity in place, we're really appreciative of the support of this tier one group of banks HSBC ANZ ING but also our growing institutional shareholder base
- it continues to walk up in a really positive way and of course our strategic holder Wyloo Investments have an incredibly important role to play and add to the potential for us to execute strategy over time
- the last half year and those following the story would know our half year accounts just came out, it has been an exceptional six months to reflect upon
- very pleasingly leading that is the continued record advancement of the of the decline I think I think we've said publicly we're now ahead of schedule as people probably appreciate we're always trying to catch that schedule, to now be ahead of it and continuously set record monthly production rates or development rates is outstanding
- in terms of exploration you know it's an increasing focus for us we really liked our scallywag intercepts this week and there's a slide on that which I'll briefly talk to later and we continue to want to find opportunities particularly around that Patterson region
- the debt and the capital stability of the organization we are actually, we are paying 30% of costs every quarter so having the capacity to do that is essential and then of course the team gives us the highest probability to be successful with the opportunities that come our way
- turning to the asset itself you know again this is the Box cut that we started in 2021
- we're really two years into a three-year development process
- the resource keeps getting bigger there's a lot of work going on that resource now
- I do think that's going to be updated in August no later than that but I think we will be aligned with our joint venture partner in to do that update in August
- again I think people have seen this slide before but it is worth pausing on it talks to the quality of the asset 86% conversion of resources into reserve it speaks to the quality of asset it speaks to the economics
- it basically tells you that with a high grade deposit sitting next to the infrastructure being that decline it's all economic it should all be coming to the Mine plan, there's access levels and the likes so you never take a hundred but that's the best I've seen in my career
- this is a busy slide because we're now looking down in plan on Greatland
- I think what I want to say is we've continued to have success in the Southeast Crescent but that link zone in Eastern Breccia
- I think are going to add a lot of driving force when we update that resource in August together with some high grade pods through that NW breccia but I think that just kind of rounds out our understanding of the asset some more and if you look at the drilling over the last 12 to 18 months
- I think you'd have an expectation that there's another good step up in that in that resource
- again people have seen this and I'm kind of looking forward to that being updated sometime soon with more the more Drilling and more ounces delineated but ounces per vertical meter on our right of screen is hugely reflective of the opportunity with this asset
- in that top part of the ore body where we've got sufficient drilling we're delineated over 8 000 ounces per vertical meter (OPVM)
- remember this is a compact door body 600 by 650 meters single decline every meter of that decline we push down, every cut is in excess of four meters, every meter you liberate or give yourself access to another 8 000 ounces so a four meter cut would deliver 32 000 ounces
- that's incredibly efficient and that also runs into your into your all in sustaining costs (AISC)
- when you have a look where we are we're probably in that mid third spiral now
- without trying to get too optically trying to kind of Divine kind of when we're going to get to the bottom of the ore body, the guidance was March 24
- remember it accelerates with time, as the ground goes down we always said it would become a more consolidated material faster advance rates so as we go down we think we're you know as I said earlier running a little bit of ahead of schedule which is tremendous and saving of time saves cost
- and of course just a reminder of what all this means when we sit on the all in sustaining cost curve
- and if you look to the left of us it's only assets in the hands of Majors, Cadia is you know probably well has been the best gold mine in Australia for some decades, I'm sure a huge driver of the reason why Newmont wants to consolidate Newcrest into its organization
- you've got the Agnico Fosterville asset that Swan zonations kind of running 50 grams it's an incredibly special part of that ore body and then you've got Tanami which is actually owned by Newmont
- again probably quite similar to Havieron in some ways it is a bit higher grade but same mining methodology sub-level open slopes (SLOS) with secondary Paste fill to get all of that high grade material and overall you know we're all in Partnership here with a global major with 35 years’ experience in the Paterson which goes to their ability and our ability to manage risk for a relatively low risk development
- ESG is important, I'd really like to get out another ESG report shortly it is important to engage in with shareholders and the market there are institutional shareholders out there that have literally said you know getting an ESG rating is part of what we is at the final threshold for us to invest
- so this just opens up and continues to expand the universe of people who can invest in us and of course it reflects our core value so we think that's really important to get this in place
- exploration a little bit to talk about here of course we've got in the Patterson the Havieron area I've got a separate slide on the success at scallywag but when we look at that
- the structures run up from Havieron in that North West onto structure in through Scallywag
- there's no better place to look for gold and copper than where it's been found historically so we continue to really be pleased about the progress we're making there if I can you know just mention more broadly
- I think what you see is a very dedicated technical team I think we have a tremendous technical reputation in the Paterson again Newcrest continues to let us manage the JURI joint venture notwithstanding they have a right to take that over I think that reflects the relationship but I think it reflects respect and we respect their input as well it's a really close relationship there so more broadly I think that a as a high quality partner especially now I think with the team we have, the more rounded team the board we have the financial backing I think and we like to think you know a sociality of being able to deal with us a socialness I think that all really well positions us to take advantage of opportunity in the Paterson and that's a focus for us
- yeah we have a lot we think we can do to consolidate that Paterson area
- look the this is just yesterday's announcement in… look this is the best results we've had outside of Havieron we hit we hit mineralization
- with that A35 this is just the really is going through those Permian layers and with and slightly into kind of some of the mud transitioning area
- to hit two grams at for two meters is a really solid outcome because what we're really trying to do is test the anomaly the geophysical feature under that and to know there's mineralization in that area I think makes us really excited about what that diamond hole can go through when we are able to mobilize a rig in the next couple of months as we come back into drilling season
- Pearl a little bit different here we had the diamond rig go down we think we're now next to the biggest conductor geophysical target we've we have, that's exciting we're just sitting on the edge of it and again we hit mineralization 1300 or plus 1300 gram silver plus 0.35 copper, so in terms of maybe potentially explaining that the conductivity there
- again excited about putting in this hole, we actually as can sometimes be the case you can't pull up all the core, we had riding where we wanted to understand we some of that core didn't come out so we're really quite interested in what that does when we go back in revisit that area
- the more broader feature a little bit of progress there at Ernest Giles in terms of First Nations, we still like to think we can drill there in the second half of the year I think I've been beating the drum on that for a little bit of time but we always thought we might be able to drill it in 2023
- we're in the start of 2023 and I still think that's achievable
- so that's exciting and we do want to get boots in the ground, Panorama and Bromus and understand that
- I'm just going to finish the last minute here on the ASX so I think it's probably June July it's actually kind of probably more work doing a cross listing than if we were a private company so as we're working through all that but we're active on that to be open with people June July I think is what's achievable and this is yeah I think it's expected to be a compliance listing
- if all states all things being equal on the ASX we think there's mandate ASX mandate locked funds on that ASX have an interest in resources who we've met with who express an interest investing, there's never guarantees but we bring that demand onto the London Stock Exchange
- those Australians don't have shares so they're not coming onto the London Market to sell them they're coming on to buy, so we think bringing on extra demand is really beneficial, work out how to optimize that
- but the liquidity will be here in London we'll probably have a scheme of arrangement here for shareholders to approve that, we're working through the details because right now so I might digress a bit again right now everything we do in Australia we get Australian legal advice, then we get UK legal advice
- so it cost us twice as much twice the time sometimes those advice are not the same so then we need to get them in a room, it takes us three times the cost and time
- we'll likely try to put an Australian vehicle top hat on top of the Havieron entity so we don't have to go through UK legal advice we do it within the Australian jurisdiction and I think that really reduces our cost and also speeds up our cycle time to be able to do things
- so London still becomes remains the primary liquidity and where our shares trade but I think having that simplicity of structure will help and again we'll explain this more but I and I'll explain it more tonight for those coming to the town hall meeting but I think that's going to really help simplify the company, reduce costs and make better use of the platforms we have
- this last slide really just revisits what I said we think we get to bring in capital markets increase our profile there in Australia and that generates demand here on our the listing which has good liquidity here in London
- so with that I'm going to pass back to Donald and open the floor for questions but hopefully that was a useful overview
SEE NEXT POST FOR Q&A TRANSCRIPT
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Notes from LSE Town Hall Zoom Q&A - 09 Mar 2023
Notes from LSE Town Hall Zoom Q&A - 09 Mar 2023
Last edited by DipSard on Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“Study the past if you would define the future.” ― Confucius
Re: Notes from LSE Town Hall Zoom Q&A - 09 Mar 2023
Part 2 of 2 - Q & A
SEE PREVIOUS POST FOR PRESENTATION TRANSCRIPT
*Okay yes that was a very useful overview Shaun thank you very much indeed, interestingly enough my first two sets of questions are one around Scallywag two around the ASX cross listing, so either I've got something very wrong or something very right and scallywag there's hardly any drilling been done there to be honest so how encouraged are you by these initial results and what are you hoping for in the future
- well look yeah at the core here these are the best results we've had we've hit mineralization sitting next to anomalies we wanted to test because we're hoping they would be mineralized
- there's still a lot more to unpack before we are definitive about what's there but they certainly warrant following up I think I've explained in the past that we are very technically driven around exploration
- we don't go in and Pattern drill and spend you know 10 million dollars punching in 10 holes to understand what might be there
- we drill in a hole we have an expectation of what that will be, we understand the stratigraphy we might run some more geophysics we recalibrate against what we found to what we thought we'd find and we re-target where we want to be
- so there's a follow-up hole these certainly warrant follow-up holes and so you know we can reserve cash
- now we can accelerate things we have the resources to be able to do that but fundamentally are the funds we have are dedicated to development of Havieron and to get that into free cash flow (FCF) but if we do if we do feel we've hit something and delineated that yeah HAD05 results you know and remember that was the fifth hole you know it wasn't discovered on the first hole the I think you'd see a convoy of rigs going down into the Paterson to drill out at high speed
- but I think for now it's very technically driven and I think we should be proud of that, we are careful and we spend that exploration allocation extremely well to optimize the number of targets we can test but also to give us the best opportunity and time to create that option value through exploration success
*Okay I was going to ask you about the ASX listing but to be honest I think you've signed it off very nicely so let's just say that Nick G and Tony B were the two people who are going to ask about the ASX listing but June July and you're working hard at it, seems to be the answer to that one and a very positive one, I'd like to go to Simon B he asks a very broad brush future potential output of Havieron question, I recently enjoyed listening to Bill Potter interview he says and would like to ask you for your thoughts around this statement regarding the potential for having to be producing 400 to 450k ounces per annum so that's a thought for you Shaun
- yeah I think if you were in a mining area where you're only taking out Southeast Crescent which runs that you know 3.7 to 4 grams gold equivalent and you can achieve that three million ton run rate you're turning out around 400 000 ounces gold equivalent per annum
- now I think that's a zonation we're obviously going to Target I think we need to have the detailed mine plan to have that we have the working one in place what that tells you is we're also going to be especially on the south side of the dolerite, we're going to be actually taking out some of that Northern mine breccia as well
- if you've already developed the levels you're putting your mining polygon together and you can bring in some incremental ore even if it's only two grams you're probably going to take that as well
- so look I think where you end up coming out as an average mining rate between 350, 400 even 450 000 ounces per annum will really depend on that detailed mine plan but when you start with a you know 3.7 to 4 gram ore body at a three million tonne rate that's where you can kind of centre it you know a midpoint around that 400 000 ounces gold equivalent, but then I think it's I really do want to defer to that to that final mine plan as to how we optimize
- do we have periods where we're really just exclusively focused on that Southeast crescent or even higher grade sections of it or do we have just this blended average where we maintain taking out some Northeast Crescent but it's a big mine, you know a 400 000 ounce mine is certainly top 10 inside Australia
- so it's exciting it's good scale and I think there's optimization work to be done
*And it hits that famous tier one you know the symbolic tier one mind that you you've been hoping for?
- well I think we consider it tier one I use the terminology world class because I know Newcrest yeah it has its own internally developed kind of definition of the world so we try not to be you know we try to use something sympathetic to our joint venture partner
- but yeah this is a great asset
*This is a great asset I like that very much okay MRE, DTM and DFS feasibility study a date of mine, the MRE I pulled this one out because I thought it was interesting Mark H, hi Shaun excellent news in the progress achieved on the decline so far in the absence of guidance on a date for the feasibility study, date of mine (Donald means DTM i.e Decision to Mine) could you talk us through how momentum will be sustained working towards production of course particular interest is acquiring the necessary regulatory approvals in a timely manner to maintain continuity and achieve first ore as early as possible, so he's basically asking you to summarize the progress overall
- yeah so look a little bit to unpack there so let's start with EPA approval
- so well you can see physically on screen if you're seeing what I'm looking at the Box Cut there going down in the decline there's EPA approval to develop Havieron in place
- obviously next door at Telfer that's been operating for 35 years EPA approval in place there is a process to just confirm with the EPA you know ore being taken overground and linking the two mines together I think there'll be an update with the EPA pretty shortly on that and we're looking forward to sharing that with our shareholders
- so we feel you know we feel this is a established mining Province just to give a credit to the joint venture partner, I think Newcrest does a tremendous job at engaging with the local Martu people I'd like to think GGP does a good job of that as well but I think Newcrest has been leading that EPA process and making sure that they had the support of the of the traditional owners so I think that's a great credit to them and I think it makes it de-risks those processes
- and then in terms of overall schedule look yeah the mine just continues to be developed yeah it would be nice to have that definitive feasibility study in place but again as you as everyone appreciates
- yeah the DFS is ‘nice to have’, it should be in place to my mind but Newcrest is funding this we're funded you don't technically really need it and it doesn't have an impact on the boots in the ground
- you know Byrnecut is still there taking cuts and will continue to take cuts so it's you know it continues
- I think Newcrest had told the market and we had reiterated that that they were planning for the December quarter 2022 yeah disappointing for whatever confluence of reasons they didn't think they could achieve that
- yeah they had the same problem with their Red Chris asset as well where they weren't able to complete the DFS in the time that they communicated to the market
- that's not to pick on Newcrest I think they they're obviously a really substantial organization it's only to put it in context that that this was multi-factorial multi-asset for Newcrest, the challenges of timetable so ultimately I think they then came out and said something that they were targeting 30 June
- as I'm sure you're all aware they're currently you know probably pretty distracted with a with a takeover bid right now I you know I'd like to think that they'll hold to that but having said that I equally think I'd understand that they're probably not going to come out with a DFS until the Takeover has been resolved one way or the other
- there is an argument that they might have rushed them out to articulate value to the to the market but that that hasn't been the case with Red Chris or Havieron today and you know I think my own observations is they're working through the optimization and I think they've been quite clear to the market that these things take time they shouldn't be rushed they should be done comprehensively and they're more they're more about focused on their the quality of their internal processes rather than trying to rush to external Market guidelines
- and if and if that's their approach I understand it and respect it
*Okay which it flows nicely to a question from Dip S so he says all that initial stuff that you've just dealt with and then he says should we be concerned about the production schedule and green lighting of Havieron now that Newcrest are in the middle of a potential acquisition by Newmont, in other words does that put you know the process and you know under threat, will it actually happen because Newcrest are distracted
- yeah thanks for the question Dip, look I think the boots on the ground probably don't get too caught up with what's happening in the corporate Melbourne office so we don't really observe a change on the ground
- where yeah and that's across I would have thought that whole portfolio of assets and I've been involved in takeovers as an executive team before and I don't think it does have a huge impact on the operational team
- sure in the head office there's a lot of activity being generated but in terms of out here at site I think it's a relatively you know business as usual approach, the pathway for us is clear it's deliver completion of that decline and start getting the development underway for first ore in 2024 so I think everyone has a very clear goal a very clearly delineated goal at site we're making record progress achieving it
- so I don't think it changes the long term, I did mention the DFS I think it can probably have an impact on that timetable because that is ultimately a function of corporate teams productivity
*And what about MRE if that's a subsection of the DFS and when might you expect that and I'm certainly someone has definitely asked, apologies I can't remember your name but someone has definitely asked might it be possible to simply go rogue and do what you did last time and publish an MRE if it's in our favour
- I'm not sure I'm gonna agree with the characterization of going rogue sorry advocated for the value of Havieron and for the value of GGP shareholders we've done it before and we're certainly willing to do that again
- so I think in this case I think there are you know again it's multifactorial we were kind of gearing up for a February well March we were actually gearing up for a March release
- we actually think there are some genuine technical reasons why some additional time and Consultants insights on that bring in that bigger expanded Eastern Breccia actually does make a lot of sense our technical team kind of thinks it's also sensible to take that course so I think again the technical teams at Newcrest and GGP I think both had a very similar view
- we don't think delaying the Newcrest well sorry the delay by Newcrest from in historic years in February to an August update of resources which they've done universally… because our concern last time is they updated the universe of Newcrest resources other than Havieron and we went alone as you characterized
- in this case they're simply aligning Havieron with every other asset in their portfolio so we you know again we respect that process we do think there's value in alignment we think technically there's a rationale for that but I think the underlying question there what would happen if it got delayed
- well we are working to that date I think right now we will say we will hit that day
- we think shareholders have been patient, we think there's a good resource update coming we want to share that with the market so I think we're happy to align with Newcrest, I think there's a broader strategic reason why that makes sense in this kind of takeover scenario where you know there are a range of opportunities that may occur for us as Greatland
- but I don't think we would past that date be comfortable with no update to the resource so hopefully that gives people confidence that it's coming but also an understanding as to why I think it's in our interest both technically and commercially to let us run its course and we do like being aligned with Newcrest, they're our JV partner the relationship's important and strong
*okay let's just walk through some quick dates, a decision to mine from Lynn T please can you tell us when you'll meet or take the decision to mine?
- I think the decision mine needs to be done within 30 days of the definitive feasibility study it technically doesn't need the definitive feasibility study, I think from a GGP point of view we would require it,
- we think having that study is important to have to had but the parties can contract to do something else but so it's really that is 100% linked presently to that DFS timetable and as I've said I think with the Takeover my sense is that becomes post takeover activity rather than mid takeover activity
* And Simon B asks about first ore, he listened to Bell Potter and was enthused about the Bell Potter interview that you did and he thinks you might have been alluding to an early Christmas present for late 2023 , are you' gonna give him an early Christmas present Shaun
- well I think that's kind of around the time that we shifted the narrative to saying we're ahead of schedule on the development of the decline I think that means getting to the top of the ore body which is presently scheduled for March 24.
- yeah hopefully we can deliver that early and Christmas presents are good having said that you know nothing in mining is linear we haven't changed that official date
- if we outperform it I think we should celebrate it at that time first ore would not be at the top of the ore body top of the ore body then develops well you might get some development or as you as you put some drifts in
- but then to come in and stope would be the third step in that process, get the decline below the ore body, set some drifts in then come and stope so there there's a sequence and I think that sequence plays itself out in 2024.
*Okay first Phil C he's very optimistic he wants to know about the first gold pour and the first dividend payment from GGP so it taking a very long time Horizon I suspect but here we go first gold pour and first dividend payment
- yeah okay thanks Phil the sorry look I'm gonna head just have to refer to the PFS there because that's the information in the market I think again just aligned with what we said before top of ore body ended up being recalibrated to March 2024 so stoping and you know first ore and presumably put that through the mill for first gold pour in 2024 as well
- and look I think dividend I'm a dividend kind of guy we bought a dividend process in at Northern Star, we had a very high 60% net profit after tax dividend pay-out at Sakari
- I think again Dividends are a sign of maturity I think they broaden your appeal to re to investors so as I said I you know I'm always really sympathetic for them but first what we'd want to do is make sure that we are completed all our capex, that we had the working capital in place to continue to optimize Havieron and then the third step would be to introduce a dividend
- so I think that is scheduled certainly well after 2024 but it's going to be on my mind I think it's a great idea
*Very good answer Barry C asks will production be delayed due to the long delay of the DFS
- look it it's a it's a good yeah it's an interesting perspective here that you don't actually need a study to extract ore so I think primer facing my answer is no you could you know you could actually have a really unusual scenario here particularly with the Newmont you know distraction at the Newcrest end where you're stoping ore before the feasibility study comes out maybe not but the you know it doesn't actually slow you down
- why do companies normally do feasibility studies, well normally you need them for the funding normally you need them before you could before you start the decline now in this case such was the conviction well of Greatland but presumably of Newcrest as well that they started ahead of study
- in fact we actually started this Decline and spent hundreds of millions of dollars before the PFS was even complete, so I think in this case it doesn't slow you down but it's a nice to have and certainly I would like to have it in place
*Okay now everyone has been very patient and they've listened for a very long time and that it really is time that we talked about the consequences of Newmont attempting to you know bidding for Newcrest, Chris T sums asks an excellent opening question, what's the latest on the Newmont bid and how may it affect GGP which is a great first question I think
- and so look where I'm super interested in it I think we're all should take a deep interest in it
- I think it creates opportunities for GGP so as I understand which is public information Newcrest approach so Newmont approached Newcrest they put an offer for to them that offer was rejected, Newcrest put a second offer to them for a confluence of reasons that became public Newcrest and then subsequently Newmont announced it
- some seeks later Newcrest came out and announced that they had not accepted that higher offer however that they were willing to grant Newmont access to due diligence to consider its bid further and I think that the inference the market took from that is if they could bump up the price a little bit higher Newcrest would be receptive to it
- the so that that's underway to my mind that due diligence may not have started yet I believe Newcrest is really focused on a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) being in place they can be very simple they can be extraordinarily complex depending on the approach that Newcrest has taken
- but I would imagine they would want having told the market they want Newmont to undertake that due diligence they would ultimately show some flexibility to ensure that took place
- to my knowledge that due diligence hasn't started taking place, it may but I have not seen any announcement to demonstrating it has got underway so I think there is a little bit of delay on that draft non-disclosure agreement but you you'd expect that to take days or weeks, it's probably already been weeks but you wouldn't normally associate that with a huge amount of time
- it should be a relatively short process, I think I understand that Newmont did due diligence on Newcrest a few years ago when they were looking at when they did the Goldcorp transaction… I'm not I can't confirm that that's what I'm told so this would somewhat be an update for them
- so I think that all plays out probably in the month of April, now that's me trying to divine an outcome I don't yeah we don't we don't really know but I think that would be what I can share with you is I think what the market tells me that they think will happen and you know fund managers and investment Banks I think believe that they'll… that the two parties will come to an agreement or not in April
- I think you know the and that would be really interesting for us and then the opportunities that come out of that and one of the things that Tom Palmer who is the CEO of Newmont has said is that they're not trying to make their business more complex
- they would then consider their portfolio and try to optimize it such they have a smaller number of bigger assets
- now I think Havieron is an unbelievably good asset, I think it sits in the portfolios major and effectively presently does having said that the scale is not the size of some of the other assets so to compare it to Cadia which is 32 million tons per annum about in my mind whilst we're doing three million tons per annum, 70% is distributable to Newcrest or Newmont in time
- so that's 2.1 million times per annum it is a different scale so if a mining company wanted to focus on its larger assets perhaps that creates an opportunity for us, I think some of the steps we've taken over the last well particularly the last six months to have the debt in place which is scalable. to have the equity support and the institutional support in place is really important
- to have a Cornerstone shareholder particularly the nature of Wyloo which has a track history of supporting sensible acquisitions I think is a huge opportunity for us
- the credibility of the board we have the credibility of the management team we have to be seen as a preferred counterparty and counterparty with the financial resources to complete I think all put us in a really good position to take advantage whatever opportunities come
- I think in addition to that just remind people we have a really strong last right of refusal, we would absolutely pursue those rights under a scenario but our base case is really good too, we own 30% of a world-class asset that will develop a stream of cash flows that we can leverage but it's a really exciting time for us and I think the optionality or the option value in our stock right now around those events is really significant
- so I think it's you know it's certainly really interesting for people you know our shareholders should be super interested in it I can't tell the future Newcrest may survive that survives perhaps you know the person from Newmont doing due diligence falls in love with the asset and they're in that dilemma of do we keep 70% of our smallest asset or perhaps they want to take us over
- and you know again that's not necessarily I want to do but being taken over at a meaningful premium recognizing the full value of Havieron but not the risk of its development and we've got a partner in Wyloo which again is incredibly well placed to help us extract full value from a bid
- so I think it's really exciting I think there's multiple ways it can it can evolve but I think 12 months ago I think it would be very difficult to say that credibly GGP would be a counterparty or two years ago I think it would be very difficult to say Greatland is an expected counterparty on a transaction involving a high value transaction 70% of Havieron
- today I think the market expectations are incredibly well placed to be able to be constructive in such a program and I think we should celebrate that I can't tell you whether it will happen I can't tell you what the future will hold but I can tell you that we're interested, we're interested who our joint venture partner is
- I think we'd have a great relationship with Newmont we enjoy a really good relationship with Newcrest now but Newmont you know we'd be delighted I've dealt with them in the past and have a good existing relationship with them they're not new to me I've bought assets off them before as well
- so yeah I feel good about it I feel good about all the work we've done all the preparation we've done puts us in a good position to take advantage whatever that future may hold but the options in our future are you know are different and perhaps better options than were there two years ago
*So we've got several questions around the possibility of poaching Telfer but you seem to be saying to me you're not just thinking about purchasing Telfer you're thinking about purchasing Telfer plus the whole of Havieron and you think that's a possibility
- well look again I can't tell the future but I think what I was trying to broadly say is that I think Telfer and Havieron are really two sides of the same coin I think there's ways you could look at them individually as well but I think in the markets mine Newcrest and ourselves have done a really good job over at two three four year period of describing to the market that as mining activity comes to an eventual end at Telfer that Havieron is a ready-made alternative and new feedstock ore source you know just 45 kilometres down the road
- so I think that narrative is on the market if a group was to keep Telfer and separate it from Havieron I think you can solve the puzzle at Havieron because you have a multi-decade mine life
- infrastructure is created for four or five year mine lifes in Australia to develop gold mines so of course you can solve the puzzle with a 30-year mine life but the but that would also crystallize a rehab liability for the holder of Telfer perhaps they wouldn't want to do that perhaps they would rather bundle it up and sell a complete package mine and processing solution and that might make some more sense in the market both for an Enquirer be it us or anyone else but also for a vendor be it Newcrest or Newmont or again anyone else
*Okay now I think the next question to go to is by Dip S, you've done well I have to say because you've raised the Wyloo question which is where we go next, I think, our Cornerstone investor Wyloo are more than an investment company, they explore and develop their own assets with a long-term metal strategy in mind and if Newmont acquiring Newcrest might they factor in an opportunity for Greatland to acquire sole ownership of Telfer and Havieron. in other words will Wyloo let's just talk Wyloo, do you think they will be excited about this as an opportunity as much as you are?
- Well no one's as excited as I am, so yeah look I yeah I think there's some comments that you know people have asked about where you know Wyloo talked about you know they like having Havieron in the portfolio they think it's a high quality asset I think the underlying questionnaire that they talked about the sophistication and the capability of Wyloo both technically and financial
- they are a really have a really good reputation in the Market as an investor and have capability and they do own assets for themselves well I you know so I think there's two elements to it
- I think one I think they are well placed to understand the opportunity but two they're on our side, they're on our side of the fence I think that that is you know great for us, I think you know my own view is they play that opportunity through Greatland but if the inference was there well maybe Wyloo becomes JV partner and you know we buy Havieron and they by Telfer well I gosh it would be a really close relationship
- so I don't think there's any bad outcomes there but I you know we work you know I work I'm a shareholder in Greatland you know so other people on the call you know we unapologetically would like to keep this in our house
- we have a brilliant relationship with Wyloo, yeah I just think the way to think about that is they're on our side we'd work together constructively but if the best outcome is Greatland owning it, the second best outcome is us owning it with you know with Wyloo
- but I think that's unlikely I think they're there just to support us but I think there's no bad outcomes in that scenario
*Great gosh this is a a pretty extraordinary conversation we're having I have to say, this is all very exciting perhaps I'm the third most excited person, Dave H asks he's talking about the data room all the information that's in this Newcrest data room and I'm saying well might we might we just release that information independently and would that be a good thing or a bad thing for the GGP share price which is quite a sort of an interesting question
- well we're not privy to the discussions between Newmont and Newcrest and yeah we don't have a favourite in that we like both counter parties and you know they're two really sophisticated groups
- yeah in terms of information so you know we don't have an option to release that there's non-disclosure agreements in the JVA where Newcrest wouldn't do that unilaterally but you know from a new from a GGP perspective we think the more information in the market on Havieron the better
- you know if we're in a scenario we own this 100% I think you know there'd be a great deal more information in the market because we would be sharing everything you know kind of almost in real time now
- Newcrest has a different material threshold a different Tempo to their organization that's not to say it's not good tempo it's but it's different and I think some of the outcomes that they can drive are really good from that because they're thorough and methodical and these are good things that we should respect and celebrate in our joint venture partner
- but I think yeah I don't I don't think you're going to say a public data room on Newcrest in whole or in part become a public document
*And it simply wouldn't be allowed for you guys to release information
- well just to be clear we're not a party to those discussions we won't know necessarily what Newmont you know views with Newcrest what they share on any of their assets that there's a private conversation there and much the same if we had a conversation with a another party we wouldn't be inviting Newcrest to sit in the room with us and I'm not expecting an invite from Newcrest and yeah notwithstanding incredibly respectful and good relationship that's just not you know how you'd expect them to want to…
*Understood it's not your place
- well said Donald
*Yeah okay David W says it was mooted months ago that Canadian miners were looking to boost long-term reserves as well as pressing for the largest miner status in the world Newmont particularly, do you think Newmont’s plan is the mothball Havieron on along with taking out Newcrest for shorter term gains elsewhere in the Newcrest portfolio, should they be successful with a takeover attempt
- so look if you think that Newmont actually USA rather than Canadian but let's just lump this in as North America the yeah both are good places the so I look I think there's clearly Newmont sees value but as I mentioned before Tom Palmer's you know public comments I haven't spoken to Tom Palmer but the yeah they've talked about rationalization of their portfolio that they're not trying to add complexity that they're trying to have a smaller number of higher quality assets
- so yeah I think yeah it's it's a pretty formidable combination yeah I you know I can see the attraction in it without you know wanting one outcome or the other so yeah we really respect that but yeah absolutely look Havieron's a world-class asset you know I think the question partly there was would they want to keep it they don't want to keep everything but there's no reason they wouldn't want to keep Havieron
- there is no certainty to outcomes here what there is optionality I think there's really interesting optionality’s and I think I said earlier in the call you know they could turn around and due diligence, fall in love with this thing say we rate this in the top half of our portfolio or the top quarter or the top three quarter of the portfolio and turn around and say right how do we get more of it again
- I think we have a level of protection there in terms of getting a good outcome but yeah to be clear with people that's you know that's not my ideal scenario but yeah if we're rewarded
*How much might you might you hope to get for it let me be rude and interject I'm sure the audience are all going ask that ask it how much how much would you would you ask for Havieron as a going concern
- yeah look I really appreciate the question Donald and that would be the outcome of a negotiation but we think what the share register does the support we have with the Retail Market the introduction of institutions and of course Wyloo again I think positions us incredibly well to be confident in a defence where we can extract what we consider full value and I think why we would come to that own conclusion there around full value and would be uncomfortable if we didn't see at least what they were saying
- so I think there's some checks and balances there I don't think we're low hanging fruit for anyone in a takeover scenario and that's good I think if people have an expectation they have to pay fully for us they come to the table with a full price and that's certainly better than an opportunistic bid
*Now we're coming to the at the end of our long session here and we're entirely not trying to dodge this I'm going to ask you about the share price, so we've got a few share price questions here and the most obvious opener it comes from John S who says there seems to be massive disparity between the current share price and what shareholders see as fair a fair price fair value could you explain the difference and when do you anticipate the gap closing
- so look I think first like yeah as a management team we try to focus on what we can control
- we like to think we had a really successful past six months in June I think it would have been difficult to explain how we're going to pay the September Cash Call
- so I think you know having the funding in place the team the debt and equity the strategic holder being successful around the five percent arbitration which kind of seems a long way in the rear view mirror but it was literally the last half
- I think it's amazing how much has been done in that period
- look I'm a shareholder ultimately you know all the team really is on Modest salaries but have Equity upside and exposure we're pretty focused on delivering share price we work really hard and we work really hard to try to do that for all of our benefit
- sorry yeah we look at the share price and we scratch our head a little bit we yeah I think there's a broader you know shift and that you know in terms of you know you know when we map ourselves against Gold stock there's a general Trend negative and these things are cyclical and I like to think there's actually a little bit of positivity coming into the gold market
- I think I'm seeing that a little bit on my Roadshow and then there's a general kind of London Market you know to be open with you I think the London Market is less positive than the Australian market right now and you know again these things are cyclical in two years’ time you know that that those roles can be reversed
- I think that adds to we think the benefit of having the ASX buyers come in so that's helpful we think a low share price you know you've seen the register become I'm going to say 20 25% institutional off the Euro base so it does tell you that sophisticated investors I'm kind of echoing back the sentiment there that this looks like value
- yeah I you know our desire is to walk it up we think about it you know I'm on road shows to try and try to promote the stock and people should be confident I'm going to continue to engage with the retail element as well to try to promote the stock with retail with new Brokers and things like the town hall so we hear and respect what people are saying
- but look at the end of the day we can control our actions and we think we've done a lot of steps that have created value and position us for future value growth
*What do you see as the kickers of the share price and over the next few months
- well let's not talk about the Newmont Newcrest bid because I think I think that's kind of well understood and how that can create I think a transformational outcome for us as a as a group the but I think you know I've talked about we didn't know Newmont was bidding for Newcrest
- that's not to say yeah we had we hadn't built relationships with other gold parties in the market and that we think those relationships put us in good stead but when we when we think about those things we were also thinking about other avenues for growth
- so I'm really confident that some of the work we've been doing over the last six months will give us greater opportunity
- obviously you know plan A we're very focused around what's happening with Havieron right now but Plan B was looking at other opportunities in the Patterson and then plan C is to look kind of broader a field
- but yeah we were working through those opportunities we thought we could see in the Paterson and again I think we present as a really good counterparty in the Patterson so we think there's some catalysts for growth around growth in the Paterson more broadly
- we think the resource coming out going to be really positive we'd like to see the PFS come out, sustainability report coming out again I think enhances our traction with shareholders and that ASX listing
- I think bringing new demand onto the exchange can only help as I said earlier yeah they're not holding shares they're not going to come onto the London market and sell them if Australians come on they are buying
- so it shifts the demand supply curve I can't predict future prices but more demand should be more demand
- so I'm excited about that ASX listing
*Neil B, Neil I suspect is not the happiest of bunnies he says on reputation we now have an experienced team of board members what is it that they're doing to add value to the company's share price considering that they've been handsomely rewarded the tier options since that appointment but this is probably a good a good opportunity to say that you don't get your share options until you've actually well one got the share price up but two they don't actually kick in for two or three years if they understand
- yeah so those options are I'm gonna say 50% out of the money they might ballpark so that's got zero value from that
- they need the share price to get 50% to get value from that that seems positive for all of us and so I think that's alignment they're not here they they've contributed already you know that we had an incredibly interesting journey through 2021/22 with around the option process and ultimately being you're like successful in that
- again we had a bit of a flavour, a Fortescue favour in that we had Nev Power involved on our side bringing that you know what I think is a very good reputation and offsetting the Newcrest brand in terms of trying to convince that we were equally as credible to an independent expert
- and to be honest those directors had been in the background for much of for a I think I've disclosed I think it was a 13-month period where I was talking to them before yeah they provided great counsel throughout that intriguing process and then if we talk about value I think we should understand that there's no doubt in my mind that that board coming increased our ability to raise Equity Capital with institutions and would have been hugely influential in bringing Wyloo
- now being funded is critical you know we had started developing an asset without being funded
- I'm unaware of another company having done that, started a series of cash outflows without having the funding in place, now we've solved that puzzle but believe me that that was not for the faint-hearted so that director group has helped come in and solve that puzzle with us through reputation through advice which is what boards do so I and what has they got in return
- options that are 50% out of the money and need you know a meaningful increase that we'd all like to see to really be you know to get success and value out of that contribution and you know even if they are in the money they don't actually make any money when it first goes in the money
- it's actually got to go out well beyond 50 for them to actually extract meaningful value out of GGP so these guys have been the Best Buy we've ever done
- yeah I'm almost embarrassed how much value we've got out of them for what we've contributed so far
*It's definitely worth stating at this point that if the Newmont bid is successful and as you say that it opens up all these probabilities and possibilities but those possibilities wouldn't be possibilities unless you had the strength of and depth of team that you have I would have thought
- correct like the Newmont’s, the Newcrest’s, the Rio’s in the area, you know Barrick was you know involved you know dealing with the BHP , all of these groups we now have the ability to deal with and be seen as a high quality counterpart even the banks you know the ANZ the HSBC’s and ING;s I'm sure took comfort from the quality of the individual involved
- so the counterparties that we're able to engage with and surround ourselves with again are transformed because of the calibre of people we have and again so I think I think they've been great value
- you know when our share price is when their options are in the money and they've and you know that's what we expect and hope will happen they will get some kind of benefit from that but right now you know it's been a one you know it's been largely a one-way street
- they have great optionality around those the value there but right now they've been yeah we've been drawing from the well we've been using them to shore up the foundations of our organization which I think the last six months was exceptional it yeah to resolve that five percent which was a terrible cross to bear to resolve it successfully to keep 30% to bring in debt to bring in equity to bring in a strategic and you know this is as much you know credit where credit is true this is the site team but to then get the decline from behind schedule to above schedule, it was a good six months guys, it was a really good six months now I can't control the share price but I think we've given an opportunity to flourish in the future
*Okay final question we've got one in from Stuart W , one of the one of the live questions do you think the Australian government will allow the Takeover you know if it is agreed between the two counter parties, do you think they’ll allow that transaction to take place given that 50% of Australian or at least 50% of Australian mining assets in foreign hands
- well I think I think 50% of the Australian Gold pour would be in foreign hands as you described it if this takeover was successful you know the looks like in a word yes
- I think USA is seen as a very similar jurisdiction to Australia as is the UK as is Canada and most of Western Europe it's a market economy system yeah with similar levels of governance so I think I don't think Australia would see it as a threat to National Security with like-minded individuals owning assets in the company country and Newmont already owns and operates two very successful gold mines in Australia
- so I think there is one I had a periphery involvement was with well the bankers at Shell look to take over Woodside many years ago that was Australia's only primary kind of oil producer at the time, I think that was seen as oil was a little bit more fundamental to the to the economy, this is probably going back some decades now but the I think gold probably isn't seen in the same way, it's a very fragmented sector in Australia
- there's lots of goals there's lots of homegrown gold companies Northern Star I'm going to put a plug-in for there so I think yeah it's a little bit of a shame to see you know what's been a mainstay of the Australian Gold sector if it does pass into Newmont but equally I think Newmont’s been an incredibly respected and responsible and good part of the Australian Gold sector for many decades
- and indeed Newcrest the reason it's called Newcrest which is similar to Newmont is because it was a spin out of Newmont at Once Upon a Time so it's they're kind of buying back the farm which is which is an interesting turn of phrase and yeah because that's something we might be interested in doing one day
*And on that note, I'd like to say Shaun day thank you so much for joining us, thank you to the hundreds of people who've just joined us live to listen to what was an exceptional Q&A from Shaun, thank you so much for being so open and telling us what's on your mind and that's it from London Southeast for today thank you so much for joining us thank you.
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*Okay yes that was a very useful overview Shaun thank you very much indeed, interestingly enough my first two sets of questions are one around Scallywag two around the ASX cross listing, so either I've got something very wrong or something very right and scallywag there's hardly any drilling been done there to be honest so how encouraged are you by these initial results and what are you hoping for in the future
- well look yeah at the core here these are the best results we've had we've hit mineralization sitting next to anomalies we wanted to test because we're hoping they would be mineralized
- there's still a lot more to unpack before we are definitive about what's there but they certainly warrant following up I think I've explained in the past that we are very technically driven around exploration
- we don't go in and Pattern drill and spend you know 10 million dollars punching in 10 holes to understand what might be there
- we drill in a hole we have an expectation of what that will be, we understand the stratigraphy we might run some more geophysics we recalibrate against what we found to what we thought we'd find and we re-target where we want to be
- so there's a follow-up hole these certainly warrant follow-up holes and so you know we can reserve cash
- now we can accelerate things we have the resources to be able to do that but fundamentally are the funds we have are dedicated to development of Havieron and to get that into free cash flow (FCF) but if we do if we do feel we've hit something and delineated that yeah HAD05 results you know and remember that was the fifth hole you know it wasn't discovered on the first hole the I think you'd see a convoy of rigs going down into the Paterson to drill out at high speed
- but I think for now it's very technically driven and I think we should be proud of that, we are careful and we spend that exploration allocation extremely well to optimize the number of targets we can test but also to give us the best opportunity and time to create that option value through exploration success
*Okay I was going to ask you about the ASX listing but to be honest I think you've signed it off very nicely so let's just say that Nick G and Tony B were the two people who are going to ask about the ASX listing but June July and you're working hard at it, seems to be the answer to that one and a very positive one, I'd like to go to Simon B he asks a very broad brush future potential output of Havieron question, I recently enjoyed listening to Bill Potter interview he says and would like to ask you for your thoughts around this statement regarding the potential for having to be producing 400 to 450k ounces per annum so that's a thought for you Shaun
- yeah I think if you were in a mining area where you're only taking out Southeast Crescent which runs that you know 3.7 to 4 grams gold equivalent and you can achieve that three million ton run rate you're turning out around 400 000 ounces gold equivalent per annum
- now I think that's a zonation we're obviously going to Target I think we need to have the detailed mine plan to have that we have the working one in place what that tells you is we're also going to be especially on the south side of the dolerite, we're going to be actually taking out some of that Northern mine breccia as well
- if you've already developed the levels you're putting your mining polygon together and you can bring in some incremental ore even if it's only two grams you're probably going to take that as well
- so look I think where you end up coming out as an average mining rate between 350, 400 even 450 000 ounces per annum will really depend on that detailed mine plan but when you start with a you know 3.7 to 4 gram ore body at a three million tonne rate that's where you can kind of centre it you know a midpoint around that 400 000 ounces gold equivalent, but then I think it's I really do want to defer to that to that final mine plan as to how we optimize
- do we have periods where we're really just exclusively focused on that Southeast crescent or even higher grade sections of it or do we have just this blended average where we maintain taking out some Northeast Crescent but it's a big mine, you know a 400 000 ounce mine is certainly top 10 inside Australia
- so it's exciting it's good scale and I think there's optimization work to be done
*And it hits that famous tier one you know the symbolic tier one mind that you you've been hoping for?
- well I think we consider it tier one I use the terminology world class because I know Newcrest yeah it has its own internally developed kind of definition of the world so we try not to be you know we try to use something sympathetic to our joint venture partner
- but yeah this is a great asset
*This is a great asset I like that very much okay MRE, DTM and DFS feasibility study a date of mine, the MRE I pulled this one out because I thought it was interesting Mark H, hi Shaun excellent news in the progress achieved on the decline so far in the absence of guidance on a date for the feasibility study, date of mine (Donald means DTM i.e Decision to Mine) could you talk us through how momentum will be sustained working towards production of course particular interest is acquiring the necessary regulatory approvals in a timely manner to maintain continuity and achieve first ore as early as possible, so he's basically asking you to summarize the progress overall
- yeah so look a little bit to unpack there so let's start with EPA approval
- so well you can see physically on screen if you're seeing what I'm looking at the Box Cut there going down in the decline there's EPA approval to develop Havieron in place
- obviously next door at Telfer that's been operating for 35 years EPA approval in place there is a process to just confirm with the EPA you know ore being taken overground and linking the two mines together I think there'll be an update with the EPA pretty shortly on that and we're looking forward to sharing that with our shareholders
- so we feel you know we feel this is a established mining Province just to give a credit to the joint venture partner, I think Newcrest does a tremendous job at engaging with the local Martu people I'd like to think GGP does a good job of that as well but I think Newcrest has been leading that EPA process and making sure that they had the support of the of the traditional owners so I think that's a great credit to them and I think it makes it de-risks those processes
- and then in terms of overall schedule look yeah the mine just continues to be developed yeah it would be nice to have that definitive feasibility study in place but again as you as everyone appreciates
- yeah the DFS is ‘nice to have’, it should be in place to my mind but Newcrest is funding this we're funded you don't technically really need it and it doesn't have an impact on the boots in the ground
- you know Byrnecut is still there taking cuts and will continue to take cuts so it's you know it continues
- I think Newcrest had told the market and we had reiterated that that they were planning for the December quarter 2022 yeah disappointing for whatever confluence of reasons they didn't think they could achieve that
- yeah they had the same problem with their Red Chris asset as well where they weren't able to complete the DFS in the time that they communicated to the market
- that's not to pick on Newcrest I think they they're obviously a really substantial organization it's only to put it in context that that this was multi-factorial multi-asset for Newcrest, the challenges of timetable so ultimately I think they then came out and said something that they were targeting 30 June
- as I'm sure you're all aware they're currently you know probably pretty distracted with a with a takeover bid right now I you know I'd like to think that they'll hold to that but having said that I equally think I'd understand that they're probably not going to come out with a DFS until the Takeover has been resolved one way or the other
- there is an argument that they might have rushed them out to articulate value to the to the market but that that hasn't been the case with Red Chris or Havieron today and you know I think my own observations is they're working through the optimization and I think they've been quite clear to the market that these things take time they shouldn't be rushed they should be done comprehensively and they're more they're more about focused on their the quality of their internal processes rather than trying to rush to external Market guidelines
- and if and if that's their approach I understand it and respect it
*Okay which it flows nicely to a question from Dip S so he says all that initial stuff that you've just dealt with and then he says should we be concerned about the production schedule and green lighting of Havieron now that Newcrest are in the middle of a potential acquisition by Newmont, in other words does that put you know the process and you know under threat, will it actually happen because Newcrest are distracted
- yeah thanks for the question Dip, look I think the boots on the ground probably don't get too caught up with what's happening in the corporate Melbourne office so we don't really observe a change on the ground
- where yeah and that's across I would have thought that whole portfolio of assets and I've been involved in takeovers as an executive team before and I don't think it does have a huge impact on the operational team
- sure in the head office there's a lot of activity being generated but in terms of out here at site I think it's a relatively you know business as usual approach, the pathway for us is clear it's deliver completion of that decline and start getting the development underway for first ore in 2024 so I think everyone has a very clear goal a very clearly delineated goal at site we're making record progress achieving it
- so I don't think it changes the long term, I did mention the DFS I think it can probably have an impact on that timetable because that is ultimately a function of corporate teams productivity
*And what about MRE if that's a subsection of the DFS and when might you expect that and I'm certainly someone has definitely asked, apologies I can't remember your name but someone has definitely asked might it be possible to simply go rogue and do what you did last time and publish an MRE if it's in our favour
- I'm not sure I'm gonna agree with the characterization of going rogue sorry advocated for the value of Havieron and for the value of GGP shareholders we've done it before and we're certainly willing to do that again
- so I think in this case I think there are you know again it's multifactorial we were kind of gearing up for a February well March we were actually gearing up for a March release
- we actually think there are some genuine technical reasons why some additional time and Consultants insights on that bring in that bigger expanded Eastern Breccia actually does make a lot of sense our technical team kind of thinks it's also sensible to take that course so I think again the technical teams at Newcrest and GGP I think both had a very similar view
- we don't think delaying the Newcrest well sorry the delay by Newcrest from in historic years in February to an August update of resources which they've done universally… because our concern last time is they updated the universe of Newcrest resources other than Havieron and we went alone as you characterized
- in this case they're simply aligning Havieron with every other asset in their portfolio so we you know again we respect that process we do think there's value in alignment we think technically there's a rationale for that but I think the underlying question there what would happen if it got delayed
- well we are working to that date I think right now we will say we will hit that day
- we think shareholders have been patient, we think there's a good resource update coming we want to share that with the market so I think we're happy to align with Newcrest, I think there's a broader strategic reason why that makes sense in this kind of takeover scenario where you know there are a range of opportunities that may occur for us as Greatland
- but I don't think we would past that date be comfortable with no update to the resource so hopefully that gives people confidence that it's coming but also an understanding as to why I think it's in our interest both technically and commercially to let us run its course and we do like being aligned with Newcrest, they're our JV partner the relationship's important and strong
*okay let's just walk through some quick dates, a decision to mine from Lynn T please can you tell us when you'll meet or take the decision to mine?
- I think the decision mine needs to be done within 30 days of the definitive feasibility study it technically doesn't need the definitive feasibility study, I think from a GGP point of view we would require it,
- we think having that study is important to have to had but the parties can contract to do something else but so it's really that is 100% linked presently to that DFS timetable and as I've said I think with the Takeover my sense is that becomes post takeover activity rather than mid takeover activity
* And Simon B asks about first ore, he listened to Bell Potter and was enthused about the Bell Potter interview that you did and he thinks you might have been alluding to an early Christmas present for late 2023 , are you' gonna give him an early Christmas present Shaun
- well I think that's kind of around the time that we shifted the narrative to saying we're ahead of schedule on the development of the decline I think that means getting to the top of the ore body which is presently scheduled for March 24.
- yeah hopefully we can deliver that early and Christmas presents are good having said that you know nothing in mining is linear we haven't changed that official date
- if we outperform it I think we should celebrate it at that time first ore would not be at the top of the ore body top of the ore body then develops well you might get some development or as you as you put some drifts in
- but then to come in and stope would be the third step in that process, get the decline below the ore body, set some drifts in then come and stope so there there's a sequence and I think that sequence plays itself out in 2024.
*Okay first Phil C he's very optimistic he wants to know about the first gold pour and the first dividend payment from GGP so it taking a very long time Horizon I suspect but here we go first gold pour and first dividend payment
- yeah okay thanks Phil the sorry look I'm gonna head just have to refer to the PFS there because that's the information in the market I think again just aligned with what we said before top of ore body ended up being recalibrated to March 2024 so stoping and you know first ore and presumably put that through the mill for first gold pour in 2024 as well
- and look I think dividend I'm a dividend kind of guy we bought a dividend process in at Northern Star, we had a very high 60% net profit after tax dividend pay-out at Sakari
- I think again Dividends are a sign of maturity I think they broaden your appeal to re to investors so as I said I you know I'm always really sympathetic for them but first what we'd want to do is make sure that we are completed all our capex, that we had the working capital in place to continue to optimize Havieron and then the third step would be to introduce a dividend
- so I think that is scheduled certainly well after 2024 but it's going to be on my mind I think it's a great idea
*Very good answer Barry C asks will production be delayed due to the long delay of the DFS
- look it it's a it's a good yeah it's an interesting perspective here that you don't actually need a study to extract ore so I think primer facing my answer is no you could you know you could actually have a really unusual scenario here particularly with the Newmont you know distraction at the Newcrest end where you're stoping ore before the feasibility study comes out maybe not but the you know it doesn't actually slow you down
- why do companies normally do feasibility studies, well normally you need them for the funding normally you need them before you could before you start the decline now in this case such was the conviction well of Greatland but presumably of Newcrest as well that they started ahead of study
- in fact we actually started this Decline and spent hundreds of millions of dollars before the PFS was even complete, so I think in this case it doesn't slow you down but it's a nice to have and certainly I would like to have it in place
*Okay now everyone has been very patient and they've listened for a very long time and that it really is time that we talked about the consequences of Newmont attempting to you know bidding for Newcrest, Chris T sums asks an excellent opening question, what's the latest on the Newmont bid and how may it affect GGP which is a great first question I think
- and so look where I'm super interested in it I think we're all should take a deep interest in it
- I think it creates opportunities for GGP so as I understand which is public information Newcrest approach so Newmont approached Newcrest they put an offer for to them that offer was rejected, Newcrest put a second offer to them for a confluence of reasons that became public Newcrest and then subsequently Newmont announced it
- some seeks later Newcrest came out and announced that they had not accepted that higher offer however that they were willing to grant Newmont access to due diligence to consider its bid further and I think that the inference the market took from that is if they could bump up the price a little bit higher Newcrest would be receptive to it
- the so that that's underway to my mind that due diligence may not have started yet I believe Newcrest is really focused on a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) being in place they can be very simple they can be extraordinarily complex depending on the approach that Newcrest has taken
- but I would imagine they would want having told the market they want Newmont to undertake that due diligence they would ultimately show some flexibility to ensure that took place
- to my knowledge that due diligence hasn't started taking place, it may but I have not seen any announcement to demonstrating it has got underway so I think there is a little bit of delay on that draft non-disclosure agreement but you you'd expect that to take days or weeks, it's probably already been weeks but you wouldn't normally associate that with a huge amount of time
- it should be a relatively short process, I think I understand that Newmont did due diligence on Newcrest a few years ago when they were looking at when they did the Goldcorp transaction… I'm not I can't confirm that that's what I'm told so this would somewhat be an update for them
- so I think that all plays out probably in the month of April, now that's me trying to divine an outcome I don't yeah we don't we don't really know but I think that would be what I can share with you is I think what the market tells me that they think will happen and you know fund managers and investment Banks I think believe that they'll… that the two parties will come to an agreement or not in April
- I think you know the and that would be really interesting for us and then the opportunities that come out of that and one of the things that Tom Palmer who is the CEO of Newmont has said is that they're not trying to make their business more complex
- they would then consider their portfolio and try to optimize it such they have a smaller number of bigger assets
- now I think Havieron is an unbelievably good asset, I think it sits in the portfolios major and effectively presently does having said that the scale is not the size of some of the other assets so to compare it to Cadia which is 32 million tons per annum about in my mind whilst we're doing three million tons per annum, 70% is distributable to Newcrest or Newmont in time
- so that's 2.1 million times per annum it is a different scale so if a mining company wanted to focus on its larger assets perhaps that creates an opportunity for us, I think some of the steps we've taken over the last well particularly the last six months to have the debt in place which is scalable. to have the equity support and the institutional support in place is really important
- to have a Cornerstone shareholder particularly the nature of Wyloo which has a track history of supporting sensible acquisitions I think is a huge opportunity for us
- the credibility of the board we have the credibility of the management team we have to be seen as a preferred counterparty and counterparty with the financial resources to complete I think all put us in a really good position to take advantage whatever opportunities come
- I think in addition to that just remind people we have a really strong last right of refusal, we would absolutely pursue those rights under a scenario but our base case is really good too, we own 30% of a world-class asset that will develop a stream of cash flows that we can leverage but it's a really exciting time for us and I think the optionality or the option value in our stock right now around those events is really significant
- so I think it's you know it's certainly really interesting for people you know our shareholders should be super interested in it I can't tell the future Newcrest may survive that survives perhaps you know the person from Newmont doing due diligence falls in love with the asset and they're in that dilemma of do we keep 70% of our smallest asset or perhaps they want to take us over
- and you know again that's not necessarily I want to do but being taken over at a meaningful premium recognizing the full value of Havieron but not the risk of its development and we've got a partner in Wyloo which again is incredibly well placed to help us extract full value from a bid
- so I think it's really exciting I think there's multiple ways it can it can evolve but I think 12 months ago I think it would be very difficult to say that credibly GGP would be a counterparty or two years ago I think it would be very difficult to say Greatland is an expected counterparty on a transaction involving a high value transaction 70% of Havieron
- today I think the market expectations are incredibly well placed to be able to be constructive in such a program and I think we should celebrate that I can't tell you whether it will happen I can't tell you what the future will hold but I can tell you that we're interested, we're interested who our joint venture partner is
- I think we'd have a great relationship with Newmont we enjoy a really good relationship with Newcrest now but Newmont you know we'd be delighted I've dealt with them in the past and have a good existing relationship with them they're not new to me I've bought assets off them before as well
- so yeah I feel good about it I feel good about all the work we've done all the preparation we've done puts us in a good position to take advantage whatever that future may hold but the options in our future are you know are different and perhaps better options than were there two years ago
*So we've got several questions around the possibility of poaching Telfer but you seem to be saying to me you're not just thinking about purchasing Telfer you're thinking about purchasing Telfer plus the whole of Havieron and you think that's a possibility
- well look again I can't tell the future but I think what I was trying to broadly say is that I think Telfer and Havieron are really two sides of the same coin I think there's ways you could look at them individually as well but I think in the markets mine Newcrest and ourselves have done a really good job over at two three four year period of describing to the market that as mining activity comes to an eventual end at Telfer that Havieron is a ready-made alternative and new feedstock ore source you know just 45 kilometres down the road
- so I think that narrative is on the market if a group was to keep Telfer and separate it from Havieron I think you can solve the puzzle at Havieron because you have a multi-decade mine life
- infrastructure is created for four or five year mine lifes in Australia to develop gold mines so of course you can solve the puzzle with a 30-year mine life but the but that would also crystallize a rehab liability for the holder of Telfer perhaps they wouldn't want to do that perhaps they would rather bundle it up and sell a complete package mine and processing solution and that might make some more sense in the market both for an Enquirer be it us or anyone else but also for a vendor be it Newcrest or Newmont or again anyone else
*Okay now I think the next question to go to is by Dip S, you've done well I have to say because you've raised the Wyloo question which is where we go next, I think, our Cornerstone investor Wyloo are more than an investment company, they explore and develop their own assets with a long-term metal strategy in mind and if Newmont acquiring Newcrest might they factor in an opportunity for Greatland to acquire sole ownership of Telfer and Havieron. in other words will Wyloo let's just talk Wyloo, do you think they will be excited about this as an opportunity as much as you are?
- Well no one's as excited as I am, so yeah look I yeah I think there's some comments that you know people have asked about where you know Wyloo talked about you know they like having Havieron in the portfolio they think it's a high quality asset I think the underlying questionnaire that they talked about the sophistication and the capability of Wyloo both technically and financial
- they are a really have a really good reputation in the Market as an investor and have capability and they do own assets for themselves well I you know so I think there's two elements to it
- I think one I think they are well placed to understand the opportunity but two they're on our side, they're on our side of the fence I think that that is you know great for us, I think you know my own view is they play that opportunity through Greatland but if the inference was there well maybe Wyloo becomes JV partner and you know we buy Havieron and they by Telfer well I gosh it would be a really close relationship
- so I don't think there's any bad outcomes there but I you know we work you know I work I'm a shareholder in Greatland you know so other people on the call you know we unapologetically would like to keep this in our house
- we have a brilliant relationship with Wyloo, yeah I just think the way to think about that is they're on our side we'd work together constructively but if the best outcome is Greatland owning it, the second best outcome is us owning it with you know with Wyloo
- but I think that's unlikely I think they're there just to support us but I think there's no bad outcomes in that scenario
*Great gosh this is a a pretty extraordinary conversation we're having I have to say, this is all very exciting perhaps I'm the third most excited person, Dave H asks he's talking about the data room all the information that's in this Newcrest data room and I'm saying well might we might we just release that information independently and would that be a good thing or a bad thing for the GGP share price which is quite a sort of an interesting question
- well we're not privy to the discussions between Newmont and Newcrest and yeah we don't have a favourite in that we like both counter parties and you know they're two really sophisticated groups
- yeah in terms of information so you know we don't have an option to release that there's non-disclosure agreements in the JVA where Newcrest wouldn't do that unilaterally but you know from a new from a GGP perspective we think the more information in the market on Havieron the better
- you know if we're in a scenario we own this 100% I think you know there'd be a great deal more information in the market because we would be sharing everything you know kind of almost in real time now
- Newcrest has a different material threshold a different Tempo to their organization that's not to say it's not good tempo it's but it's different and I think some of the outcomes that they can drive are really good from that because they're thorough and methodical and these are good things that we should respect and celebrate in our joint venture partner
- but I think yeah I don't I don't think you're going to say a public data room on Newcrest in whole or in part become a public document
*And it simply wouldn't be allowed for you guys to release information
- well just to be clear we're not a party to those discussions we won't know necessarily what Newmont you know views with Newcrest what they share on any of their assets that there's a private conversation there and much the same if we had a conversation with a another party we wouldn't be inviting Newcrest to sit in the room with us and I'm not expecting an invite from Newcrest and yeah notwithstanding incredibly respectful and good relationship that's just not you know how you'd expect them to want to…
*Understood it's not your place
- well said Donald
*Yeah okay David W says it was mooted months ago that Canadian miners were looking to boost long-term reserves as well as pressing for the largest miner status in the world Newmont particularly, do you think Newmont’s plan is the mothball Havieron on along with taking out Newcrest for shorter term gains elsewhere in the Newcrest portfolio, should they be successful with a takeover attempt
- so look if you think that Newmont actually USA rather than Canadian but let's just lump this in as North America the yeah both are good places the so I look I think there's clearly Newmont sees value but as I mentioned before Tom Palmer's you know public comments I haven't spoken to Tom Palmer but the yeah they've talked about rationalization of their portfolio that they're not trying to add complexity that they're trying to have a smaller number of higher quality assets
- so yeah I think yeah it's it's a pretty formidable combination yeah I you know I can see the attraction in it without you know wanting one outcome or the other so yeah we really respect that but yeah absolutely look Havieron's a world-class asset you know I think the question partly there was would they want to keep it they don't want to keep everything but there's no reason they wouldn't want to keep Havieron
- there is no certainty to outcomes here what there is optionality I think there's really interesting optionality’s and I think I said earlier in the call you know they could turn around and due diligence, fall in love with this thing say we rate this in the top half of our portfolio or the top quarter or the top three quarter of the portfolio and turn around and say right how do we get more of it again
- I think we have a level of protection there in terms of getting a good outcome but yeah to be clear with people that's you know that's not my ideal scenario but yeah if we're rewarded
*How much might you might you hope to get for it let me be rude and interject I'm sure the audience are all going ask that ask it how much how much would you would you ask for Havieron as a going concern
- yeah look I really appreciate the question Donald and that would be the outcome of a negotiation but we think what the share register does the support we have with the Retail Market the introduction of institutions and of course Wyloo again I think positions us incredibly well to be confident in a defence where we can extract what we consider full value and I think why we would come to that own conclusion there around full value and would be uncomfortable if we didn't see at least what they were saying
- so I think there's some checks and balances there I don't think we're low hanging fruit for anyone in a takeover scenario and that's good I think if people have an expectation they have to pay fully for us they come to the table with a full price and that's certainly better than an opportunistic bid
*Now we're coming to the at the end of our long session here and we're entirely not trying to dodge this I'm going to ask you about the share price, so we've got a few share price questions here and the most obvious opener it comes from John S who says there seems to be massive disparity between the current share price and what shareholders see as fair a fair price fair value could you explain the difference and when do you anticipate the gap closing
- so look I think first like yeah as a management team we try to focus on what we can control
- we like to think we had a really successful past six months in June I think it would have been difficult to explain how we're going to pay the September Cash Call
- so I think you know having the funding in place the team the debt and equity the strategic holder being successful around the five percent arbitration which kind of seems a long way in the rear view mirror but it was literally the last half
- I think it's amazing how much has been done in that period
- look I'm a shareholder ultimately you know all the team really is on Modest salaries but have Equity upside and exposure we're pretty focused on delivering share price we work really hard and we work really hard to try to do that for all of our benefit
- sorry yeah we look at the share price and we scratch our head a little bit we yeah I think there's a broader you know shift and that you know in terms of you know you know when we map ourselves against Gold stock there's a general Trend negative and these things are cyclical and I like to think there's actually a little bit of positivity coming into the gold market
- I think I'm seeing that a little bit on my Roadshow and then there's a general kind of London Market you know to be open with you I think the London Market is less positive than the Australian market right now and you know again these things are cyclical in two years’ time you know that that those roles can be reversed
- I think that adds to we think the benefit of having the ASX buyers come in so that's helpful we think a low share price you know you've seen the register become I'm going to say 20 25% institutional off the Euro base so it does tell you that sophisticated investors I'm kind of echoing back the sentiment there that this looks like value
- yeah I you know our desire is to walk it up we think about it you know I'm on road shows to try and try to promote the stock and people should be confident I'm going to continue to engage with the retail element as well to try to promote the stock with retail with new Brokers and things like the town hall so we hear and respect what people are saying
- but look at the end of the day we can control our actions and we think we've done a lot of steps that have created value and position us for future value growth
*What do you see as the kickers of the share price and over the next few months
- well let's not talk about the Newmont Newcrest bid because I think I think that's kind of well understood and how that can create I think a transformational outcome for us as a as a group the but I think you know I've talked about we didn't know Newmont was bidding for Newcrest
- that's not to say yeah we had we hadn't built relationships with other gold parties in the market and that we think those relationships put us in good stead but when we when we think about those things we were also thinking about other avenues for growth
- so I'm really confident that some of the work we've been doing over the last six months will give us greater opportunity
- obviously you know plan A we're very focused around what's happening with Havieron right now but Plan B was looking at other opportunities in the Patterson and then plan C is to look kind of broader a field
- but yeah we were working through those opportunities we thought we could see in the Paterson and again I think we present as a really good counterparty in the Patterson so we think there's some catalysts for growth around growth in the Paterson more broadly
- we think the resource coming out going to be really positive we'd like to see the PFS come out, sustainability report coming out again I think enhances our traction with shareholders and that ASX listing
- I think bringing new demand onto the exchange can only help as I said earlier yeah they're not holding shares they're not going to come onto the London market and sell them if Australians come on they are buying
- so it shifts the demand supply curve I can't predict future prices but more demand should be more demand
- so I'm excited about that ASX listing
*Neil B, Neil I suspect is not the happiest of bunnies he says on reputation we now have an experienced team of board members what is it that they're doing to add value to the company's share price considering that they've been handsomely rewarded the tier options since that appointment but this is probably a good a good opportunity to say that you don't get your share options until you've actually well one got the share price up but two they don't actually kick in for two or three years if they understand
- yeah so those options are I'm gonna say 50% out of the money they might ballpark so that's got zero value from that
- they need the share price to get 50% to get value from that that seems positive for all of us and so I think that's alignment they're not here they they've contributed already you know that we had an incredibly interesting journey through 2021/22 with around the option process and ultimately being you're like successful in that
- again we had a bit of a flavour, a Fortescue favour in that we had Nev Power involved on our side bringing that you know what I think is a very good reputation and offsetting the Newcrest brand in terms of trying to convince that we were equally as credible to an independent expert
- and to be honest those directors had been in the background for much of for a I think I've disclosed I think it was a 13-month period where I was talking to them before yeah they provided great counsel throughout that intriguing process and then if we talk about value I think we should understand that there's no doubt in my mind that that board coming increased our ability to raise Equity Capital with institutions and would have been hugely influential in bringing Wyloo
- now being funded is critical you know we had started developing an asset without being funded
- I'm unaware of another company having done that, started a series of cash outflows without having the funding in place, now we've solved that puzzle but believe me that that was not for the faint-hearted so that director group has helped come in and solve that puzzle with us through reputation through advice which is what boards do so I and what has they got in return
- options that are 50% out of the money and need you know a meaningful increase that we'd all like to see to really be you know to get success and value out of that contribution and you know even if they are in the money they don't actually make any money when it first goes in the money
- it's actually got to go out well beyond 50 for them to actually extract meaningful value out of GGP so these guys have been the Best Buy we've ever done
- yeah I'm almost embarrassed how much value we've got out of them for what we've contributed so far
*It's definitely worth stating at this point that if the Newmont bid is successful and as you say that it opens up all these probabilities and possibilities but those possibilities wouldn't be possibilities unless you had the strength of and depth of team that you have I would have thought
- correct like the Newmont’s, the Newcrest’s, the Rio’s in the area, you know Barrick was you know involved you know dealing with the BHP , all of these groups we now have the ability to deal with and be seen as a high quality counterpart even the banks you know the ANZ the HSBC’s and ING;s I'm sure took comfort from the quality of the individual involved
- so the counterparties that we're able to engage with and surround ourselves with again are transformed because of the calibre of people we have and again so I think I think they've been great value
- you know when our share price is when their options are in the money and they've and you know that's what we expect and hope will happen they will get some kind of benefit from that but right now you know it's been a one you know it's been largely a one-way street
- they have great optionality around those the value there but right now they've been yeah we've been drawing from the well we've been using them to shore up the foundations of our organization which I think the last six months was exceptional it yeah to resolve that five percent which was a terrible cross to bear to resolve it successfully to keep 30% to bring in debt to bring in equity to bring in a strategic and you know this is as much you know credit where credit is true this is the site team but to then get the decline from behind schedule to above schedule, it was a good six months guys, it was a really good six months now I can't control the share price but I think we've given an opportunity to flourish in the future
*Okay final question we've got one in from Stuart W , one of the one of the live questions do you think the Australian government will allow the Takeover you know if it is agreed between the two counter parties, do you think they’ll allow that transaction to take place given that 50% of Australian or at least 50% of Australian mining assets in foreign hands
- well I think I think 50% of the Australian Gold pour would be in foreign hands as you described it if this takeover was successful you know the looks like in a word yes
- I think USA is seen as a very similar jurisdiction to Australia as is the UK as is Canada and most of Western Europe it's a market economy system yeah with similar levels of governance so I think I don't think Australia would see it as a threat to National Security with like-minded individuals owning assets in the company country and Newmont already owns and operates two very successful gold mines in Australia
- so I think there is one I had a periphery involvement was with well the bankers at Shell look to take over Woodside many years ago that was Australia's only primary kind of oil producer at the time, I think that was seen as oil was a little bit more fundamental to the to the economy, this is probably going back some decades now but the I think gold probably isn't seen in the same way, it's a very fragmented sector in Australia
- there's lots of goals there's lots of homegrown gold companies Northern Star I'm going to put a plug-in for there so I think yeah it's a little bit of a shame to see you know what's been a mainstay of the Australian Gold sector if it does pass into Newmont but equally I think Newmont’s been an incredibly respected and responsible and good part of the Australian Gold sector for many decades
- and indeed Newcrest the reason it's called Newcrest which is similar to Newmont is because it was a spin out of Newmont at Once Upon a Time so it's they're kind of buying back the farm which is which is an interesting turn of phrase and yeah because that's something we might be interested in doing one day
*And on that note, I'd like to say Shaun day thank you so much for joining us, thank you to the hundreds of people who've just joined us live to listen to what was an exceptional Q&A from Shaun, thank you so much for being so open and telling us what's on your mind and that's it from London Southeast for today thank you so much for joining us thank you.
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