GGPChat

This one is especially for gimPlode and Lurker5 - I SHALL leave for you to decide what's coming next...

Some of you will be wondering who is buying the big 1.5m lumps daily...

Well, I've done a deep dive into Jupiter gold and silver’s recent publicly available reports. I've assembled the June 2022 report to the March 2023 interim report, and done a colour coded comparison, to identify changes - HOLD (blank) ADD (Green) SELL/REDUCE (red) and NEW ADDITIONS (purple) in Ned’s fund.



IMO he's the guy buying GGP Big NOW and has being doing so for the past few months , steadily at a few million a day...

Question is .... How much longer does this go on for? Well , quite a while IMO and - Here's my logic...

Degrey is no question Ned Naylor Leyland’s big HIT of the past few years BUT he has problem... And it's the classic 'nice problem' to have - it looks to me like he basically is being forced to sell De Grey down due to being seriously overweight.

I can see he had 106m Degrey at some point in 2022 (probably after a placing...) but presently according to Morningstar he has 79m presently

Jupiter’s latest DATA , dated March 2023, shows Degrey is still a whopping 9% of the fund >>>> ... big problem!

That's way too much and far too concentrated for a responsibly diversified fund within a universe of 150-200 gold and silver companies globally. EG GDXJ has around 80 holdings and is limited to 5% max for any holding.




Jupiter's own filing show He’s already sold some 27m De Grey shares. This has been done carefully as I can see De Grey IS still flying at close to all time highs. So he is obviously selling down very gradually , controlled, and into strength , given Ned is the largest holder of De grey ( with a a 5.6% holding of the company) it does not make sense to kill his own price... Does it?

Looks like in Late 2022 he also sold down the Streamers like Franco Nevada and Wheaton and bought into mid cap producers like Agnico Eagle Fesnillo and Hecla and Pan American.... whilst putting a whopping $18m buy into Filo Wow! Now Thats a lot of wonga given it 'straddles' the Argentine-Chile boarder.

And so, that leaves his shiny new 'evolving' GGP position.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

He's already reported 75m GGP as of last week according to Morningstar ..... BUT that's relatively small allocation given his style... ie just £6.3m in a £720m Fund ( at least as of April 2023 ) ...which is 0.82% of the capitol allocated to GGP

So the question is, where will he take it?

Well >>>>>> Let's take a quick look... He has 38 holdings in PM mining companies and juniors in the Jupiter fund.

12 of these are >3% or greater allocation position.
19 of the them are >1.5% allocation
23 are >1% allocation
14 are less than 0.82% GGP position

0.82% is a £6.3m buy ( ie we have that in the bag...)

1% is a £7.2m stake
1.5% is £10.8m stake
2% is £14.4m stake My Favourite
3% is £21.6m stake

Now, if he's prepared to throw $18m at Filo in Argentina with all the South America country risk - Mexico just sequestered all lithium deposits - and Filo - thats 5-10 years away from any production and realising any profit then GGP must be a total fecking shoe-in with Shaun at the helm and production next year.

Of note, Ned's other 'big position' at 4.37% , is non other than Shaun's old friends.... Northern Star...

Getting the picture? There's a massive pattern forming here.... and in IMO now the decision is made to invest in GGP that doesn't stop at 75m or 0.8%.

Nope - I reckon Ned could make a 2-3% allocation to GGP , easily ,maybe more given he likes Shaun and given Wyloo et al and given the fact that ... well there's 20moz and a 10mt mine is coming an all

Ooof..! so wait for it...

A 3% GGP allocation to Jupiter Gold and Silver is more or less the same size buy as .... GDXJ... (the first of which was £25m I recall )

Presumably Ned is buying now to get in ahead of the Aussie instos. He will be done by July imo.

Then sit back and wait as the Aussie Superannuation Calvary arrives just as gold blows through $2200 !!!



Boom basically.

Supporting Evidence...

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

For the record…

Hi Hydro
Why don’t they mention the nominees?
HL has 21% of the shares.

Hi bamps,

Morningstar only shows funds & institutions.

Yes James - Morningstar specifically lists only funds and institutions. Hence the relative small holdings way down the list.

I’m still so stoked that Ned has bought.

Absolutely massive vote of support for Shaun Day.

Nice sleuthing as always Hydrogen.
much appreciated
Jungle Babbler

Massive Update...

Well. Well. Well. - Whoo'da thunk it?

Exactly as predicted.

Latest Morningstar update now shows 17m extra recently added by Ned's Jupiter gold fund (since the last update as of 3rd May) now holding a whopping 92m making him a top 5 Shareholder. After Wyloo, Five Diggers, Tribeca, Vaneck Blackrock (and now Ned)

Big stamp of approval for Shaun and GGP. And Validation of his corporate strategy.

hTTps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

No wonder - our resident trolls at LSE Frank and the GimPlode, and over at AFDVN the legend Steliar2000, Sinsarcen, Belland75, Lurker John C (and the rest of the market maker trash) - are working frigging double overdrive... scalping and scrabbling about like lemons in a 7up factory ( on literally no volume ).

Just 17m scalped since 3rd May. Pathetic boys!! - Can't you do better than that? Maybe get on the blower t yer boss and say "if he wants the other 50m before the ASX listing he's going to have to pay 10p minimum" ...Make em pay. !!!

And, of course, this proves that its almost certain there is No way Ned Naylor Leyland Stops at just 1% GGP allocation to his fund.

No way - IMO he's going the full 00' Day - at least 2-3% allocation. So for example - Ned's got 3.16% allocated to Gold Road, 4.51% to Northern Star and 7-8% in DeGrey.. He's a stock picker and he sure likes Australia.

So this stock must be total shite? Aye...? Imminent fund raising - apart from the $76m Cash in the bank... Total Bullshyte,

That's why the UK's most prestigious gold and silver mining fund - globally even - is buying EVERYTHING they can get their mitts on....

Nope this is Mass Accumulation executed to perfection. Smash it down and hoover up.

it all began around last February: When the price started doing weird stuff- like going to 6p


https://ibb.co/mTy8LnR With 75m reported. And I know for a fact Ned hasn't reported a word of this to his own clients. Yet.

But don't worry Ned, we know mate... All over it like a wet flannel.

Geeez the Gimp Plode over on the other site might even be Ned...?

Better get in quick now... before AustralianSuper Pty arrives on market en mass. After all they have a habit of buying 15% of the small caps they like.

I mean take BCI minerals - tasty $300m a small cap salt and potash mine developer in WA... they took 14.8%


Why? Becuase it's an ESG development . And AustralianSuperPty like ESG big time. No wonder Shaun got the sustainability statements completed so damn fast...

Sit on those HANDS folks >>>>> Rockets and riches almost certainly incoming.

Once this tight fisted fund manager's order is finally filled....

Wonder what Ned's order was? Say 150m at 8.5p ...?

Thanks for the info Hydro.

I tried to find the content of your screenshots online. Navigated to morningstar.co.uk and searched for Greatland which was straightforward. Different results though. Directors & Shareholders only shows the top ten majors down to 178 million which is Wyloo and nine nominees. Jupiter Gold & Silver U2 GBP Acc with only 91 million doesn't make the list.

I then searched for 'greatland gold ownership' and search results have the morningstar.com site with the screenshots that you've posted. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

I've also notice the .com site doesn't show the nominee holders, i.e. Hargreaves Lansdown Noms Ltd with 1,226,072,935 shares.

Does anyone know why there's a difference between the two Morning Star sites?

Hi Spondy - I’m Not certain about why this difference between UK and US Morningstar sites.

There must be different disclosure rules for Funds in the US , I’d say.

It’s certainly a slightly odd situation.

All very positive and makes holding through this period a bit easier. (Not that I would sell anyway.) while the price seems low, I’m continuing to add when I can. Let’s hope for an upside soon.

And Guess Who’s next….?

https://www.australiansuper.com

Australian Super: And under no circumstances do Oz Super mess about…

With over $258bn AUD assets under management, these guys take 5-15% of the equity of small quality high growth potential companies like GGP... especially Australian companies. With over 2.87m savers/contributors - 1 in 7 Australians - they've invested in over $130bn Australian companies.

https://www.australiansuper.com/-/media ... report.pdf

And guess what their biggest holding is? Nice - a miner - BHP...

And Oh boy do they loving mining...

19th on their top 20 oz investments is Orica Ltd - the world's largest supplier of Mine blasting and explosives equipment.

Jeez : These guys just love mining https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orica


You can easily Spin through their holdings - tonnes of tiny Australian mining companies...

https://www.australiansuper.com/investm ... nvestments

For example - take small cap mining developer BCI Minerals- mentioned below - Oz Super own 14.8% of the company - which is valued at $300m ( so that's at least a circa $40-50m investment ).


Just Imagine when someone decides to buy $50m worth of GGP - Based on quality management, ESG and lower carbon Green Metal supply credentials.

No wonder Shaun rattled out that sustainability report so damn fast.


Check out their pages on responsible investing....

Shorts will be clamouring to get out when these guys pull the trigger.

Then we have GDX to come at some point.

Ned has a BA in Spanish.

Spanish BA - Yes he did.

Don't they all...? You know? - Theology, Philosophy, Arabic etc. All the Fund managers I know read that kind of stuff at Uni. It's slightly pompous but tends to demonstrate complex reasoning ability and greater depth of thinking ; absolute mastery of a second language.

Also of note. Ned started his investment management career in 1998. Just as the Dot com bubble was fully inflating ready for its subsequent giant 80-90% implosion.

I'd say it puts him in a very unique spot. Having navigated two major recessions and surviving them both. Curious that he chose the obscure world of gold and silver miners to specialise.

Maybe the dot Bomb taught him a thing or two - about survival?

Here's a wee contextual fact... did you know Dot bomb had 4 major 30-50% up rallies , during its 81% down two year crash?


Where gold subsequently multiplied from $300 to $1950/oz over the next 7 years.

It's all rather curious.

I rather like Ned. I rather like listening to him. He's a realist. And i rather like that someone of such relative gravitas and experience should chose - via their wallet and curious specialism in the world of gold and silver miners - to choose to accumulate now fairly huge amounts of GGP stock (while quietly selling down top performers like De-Grey )

I think he can see the value play.

NB: IMO the simple big Difference - De Grey didn't have a Gervais Heddle character - selling out and trashing the stock sentiment.

Hi Hydrogen , i dont post much , usually keep in touch on twitter with Paddy , what are your thoughts on Greatland actually getting bought out & SD moving into a similar position with the whoever takes us , personally when i started many moons ago i didnt even think we would still be here now !.

either way , its the end game for me

thanks for all the posts

Hi there,

It’s pretty simple - if a suitable offer arises, we vote on it…

It would have to be “Eye watering” …were Shaun’s words.

IMO… NCM tried and failed to take us out cheap (by essentially forcing bankruptcy).

We’re in a strong position now fully funded and ready to go… So bring it on.

But - Do I think that’s a likely outcome? A buy out.

Hard to say either way. Probably yes if all goes well I would expect several offers for our 30% …

But Imo Shaun is very ambitious. He wants the kudos of building a mining empire in the Patterson. I think he sees a huge opportunity, to leverage off Havieron to assimilate other assets .

In the end it’s going to come down to the quality of Havieron though, and how smoothly the process goes from here on into production.

If it goes well, I think it’s highly likely someone will try and bid for us… most probably Newmont.

But as Shaun is not the typical massive founding shareholder himself (yet), there’s no huge motive to sell up from his perspective. Unless, it’s way north of 25p. I think he’s motives are very different to the likes of of most junior gold MDs.

That said he’s not immune to making money. So if the offer isn’t Eye Poppping I doubt we’ll even hear about it.

Thanks Hydro (for all of your input) and on this issue I tend to agree with you.
My assessment of Shaun (fwiw) is that whilst a contributor to Northern Star’s success, he was in the CFO chair, not CEO. I am sure he learnt loads and saw the potential at GGP to sit in the main (CEO) chair to make something special happen (and gain the personal kudos from it). I am certain he is hugely excited by Havieron (a once in a lifetime mine) and from other prospects/tenements GGP now either hold 100%, or happen to JV with the biggest Miners in the world (NCM soon to be NEM and Rio-Tinto no less!!)
Thinking logically, if he allows a buy out for anything less than an eye-watering sum, where will he ever be able to replicate what GGP now have with him being in the main chair. He is not yet tried and tested enough to rise to CEO of NEM or Rio, so why not just admit that he has everything to gain from GGP and could create a massive legacy for himself. I’m fairly sure this is how he sees it and he is doing all the right things by bringing in Wyloo, Mark Barnaba, Elizabeth Gaines, Jimmy Wilson and others. By all accounts Rio approached us for a JV. So he is unafraid of surrounding himself with true quality and high hitters, because he knows it helps his cause in making GGP great. My only concern is timescale on when he achieves this, but if a buy out occurs that could be anytime from now and imho would be for an eye-watering amount (as Shaun said) as it would have to be to prise him out of his main seat at the helm of a Company that otherwise is going to scale the heights to be a main Exploration AND Mining competitor within the next 10-15 years. By which time Shaun would have the option to retire into the lap of luxury with his legacy created and thriving. AIMHO and VGLA. Red.

Hydrogen- any chance on a update on institutional buys?

Hi HG,

If you mean Bloomberg terminal. My usual source has recently changed jobs so I’m relying on another mate for the latest prints. Trouble is, I don’t want to ask too often. Give it another month or two (so 3 times a year) and I should be able to ask. I’m seeing him socially in a few weeks.

Overall most fund / Institutional buys should be freely available on GGPs Morningstar.com ownership page (ie the US site). The Uk morningstar site seems to have different reporting criteria where ownership isn’t reported.

Bloomberg reports all ownership by size, private PIs, management ,companies and institutional/funds as well as managed money.