Rate of change is saying Global Recession.

[Hydrogen]

Let me explain a little secret... Rate of change is everything. Here's a few things I know as facts:

1) the current FED cycle to raise interest rates constitutes the fastest ever rate of change of interest rate rises ever, in history. 500basis points in 15 months is almost twice the next fastest cycle in 1988 - which caused the 1990s recession. That does not end well

https://ibb.co/GxKJ0cD

2) The yield curve is presently the most inverted it has Ever been for over 30 years. Without exception extreme yield curve inversion ends in a recession or depression.

3) The US dollar has lost its medium term inverse (negative) correlation with gold. Over the past 180 days it averaged -0.90. Today it's (+ve) 0.37. That means dollar goes up, gold go up too see: https://ibb.co/m9nKBnh This suggests we are about to enter a new investment and macroeconomic paradigm.

4) I know that last Thursday last week was the largest EVER number of 0DTEs zero days to expiry Call Options purchased in one day. This was used to pump the SPY and the S&P500 and send it much higher. This is purely designed by large institutions to create temprary retail volume to sell into.

5) I know that Freddy Krueger-style rate cuts are being priced in. Nightmare on Wall Street is about to unfold... Based on the 1year and 2year T rates, the bond market is saying that 1 year from now the 1 year rate will be at least -176bp LOWER... ie 4.9% to 3.1% - what 'growth' is that signalling?

6) I know that all previous rate rise cycle pauses historically - including March 2020, March 09, March 2002, 1990, 1983, and 1971 have signalled something really bad about to happen. THEY NEVER END WELL.

7) I know that US Money supply is NOW collapsing at a rate not seen since the 1920s

8) I know last weeks CFTC data https://ibb.co/DfVJc3g shows the Biggest EVER short position in US Treasury Yields across 2s , 5s and 10s and 30s ( but especially the short end ) And there's Gold too with its 107k net longs contracts , across the board, some of the most bullish gold positions for 3 years. But jesus look at the SP500 (SPX) biggest net short in 3 years also.

9) I know that Debt Ceiling resolution is a net Negative for market liquidity. A deluge of new issuance of higher interest paying gov debt may be a heavy liquidity shock for financial assets.

10) I know as of March 31 GGP had a major seller in UBS/Credit Suisse who are clearly on the hunt for any liquidity whatsoever... https://ibb.co/CBkXjst THEY ARE OUT NOW IMO.

11) I know Gold miners are presently at the low end of their risk range. They have simply lost trade momentum (which is in fact a major buy signal in a bull market). Look at the price of gold it's within a few % of all time highs.

12) I know that GGP is financially secure with £60m cash as of 31/Dec/22 and keeps finding more gold with whopping new intervals into new zones like 140m at 1.7g/t - nice surprises.

13) I know that with enough fire power shorts and CALL options manipulators can easily control markets. Any Market.

14) I know ISM manufacturing data has fallen off a cliff. And is well below 50 and in the mid/low 40s now.
https://ibb.co/rZ5FWC4 and in every other case historically this level of negative rate of change has signalled recession.

15) I KNOW ALL OF THE ABOVE IS BULLISH FOR GOLD and by extension gold miners and juniors.