The REAL Macro Situation = GGP Buying opportunity
Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2023 9:12 am
I've been meaning to put together a macro synopsis for some time, to update folks on what's really going off and what to expect over the next few months... This is Not the 'CNBC' or US Government BS feed that's used to control the media - the FT and most financial news agenda independence...
I did this in Telegram yesterday (and yes, it's preaching to the choir, I know ), but Sometimes FACTS + DATA - it just helps.
The shorts are still putting their GGP FUD and fear out there... that there is a raise or a placing coming.. Unfortunately Shaun cannot deny this openly as he's obviously planning some sort of accretive acquisition - maybe he's planning to buy Antipa? - who knows?
I find it hard to believe there is a placing associated with Havieron development. When we have already secured T1 Bank Debt funding and have around $76m in the bank (as of Jan 2023). The requirement to secure the debt funding was met ... we just need the DFS.....
and since them we've simply built 30% of a tunnel... Yes, there's the RIO and Scally drilling etc and the wages bill ( but thats not more than $4-5m each IMO )
The MACRO Situation falls into 3 key sections. (And I conclude it's Bullish as Hell for GOLD )
1) Bond market and rates Vs. Gold (BOND yields up = gold down right? - wrong... ! not anymore.
2) Head fake US Tech equity rally driven by principally 4-7 US technology stocks - (which now have the market caps bigger than South American countries - nope. Fade it.)
3) US Economy and jobs market is booming right !!! Soft landing - no landing? - Wrong. New data shows the true figures is 25% unemployment.
https://twitter.com/DonDurrett/status/1 ... 00/photo/1
The US is already in a massive profits recession. The russel2000 tells you that... - Tech earnings are 20% down so far - and 6-7% rates will drive the next round of banking collapses with associated crisis of liquidity. As you probably know, the average consumer has spent all their 'covid savings' and is fully 'on the rails now'. In the UK many people are absolute desperate and mental health is taking its toll.
"... Only 23% Of Individual Equities Have Outperformed The S&P 500 Over The Three Months Through June, Data From BofA Show, Easily The Lowest Share On Record Going Back To 1986." The market has crowded like sheeple into 7 socks.
Gold?
Well Gold is smack bang in the middle of its evolving price risk range up Trend ... with very SIGNIFICANT tail support at around $1800 and Trend support around $1860/70...
But it's still very much bullish trade and trend ( unlike the SP500 , WTI and Copper ). See, this move higher recently, in the face of massive recent rate rises totally defies gravity... . Gold should be at $1660 ...
The fed continues to raise interest rates into a recession - and two more are slated for August and September to 'fight' now sticky inflation. They are raising rates to actively and deliberately to cause a recession. Its impossible to say how big this recession will be and It's pretty surprising that haven't blown the economy up already.... but while everyone is pretending 'everything is A-ok and house prices are holding up . " .. you know it isn't right?
5 banks just blew up in March.
After the big move in interest rates last week - market pricing 2 further rises this month and Sept BUT meanwhile gold has totally absorbed these Big rate moves extremely well... Historically gold would have been absolutely smashed by a 24 bp move in the 10Y T bond.
That = signal strength = Macro Economic signal strength in gold strong AND seems to be front running something big.. Presumably could be a either 1) massive recession or 20 collapse in the USD 3) gold Yuan or more 4) banks blow ups and huge credit crisis... - we don't know what... What we do know is the commercial property is leveraged to low interest rates and that 80% of that is held via small regional banks...
The 24 bp increase in the 10 year treasury rate should have smashed gold price to bits..
Correspondingly - nope there's nothing wrong at GGP - However All gold mining stocks have fallen 20%-30% in the past 4-5 weeks since March april highs in the short term trade basis -
BUT THEY are still bullish in a long term trend basis (fully maintaining tail support).
This is basically presents, IMO, a massive a buying opportunity in gold stocks and juniors giving the most leverage to gold price today.. These prices may never be see again - literally for years - as IMO we are at a major macroeconomic fulcrum point.
As such, on low volume days, presently GGP is no different. Being a large retail component , doesn't help either as sort term shorts come in via FUD on the boards and other drivel and drive the volume ( becuase they think they can bully is PIS into selling at the bottom ). Middle finger boys.
Remember price is always set at the margin... there few actual real sellers and buyers... Volume is tiny. The big boys JPM etc have since moved on, IMO. There is just tiny dickhead retail shorter FUD twits left with very little overall firepower. The big seller in UBS seems to be out also.
THUS - no more sellers GGP means it is primed for a major squeeze up and associate breakout move. We seem to have a lot of Supprt at 6.5 to 7p for now (until new funds come into the market).
Across the wider market, a lot of Fund manager and retail buyers are either 'out' and invested in money market short term cash funds. They are patiently waiting a signal OR foolishly chasing FOMO momentum AI tech stocks like Nvidia to nosebleed valuations. What could possibly go wrong...?
Well just look at the Dot Bomb crash of 2002... 8 x 50% up bear market rallies over two years but 80-90% down overall. Meanwhile gold went from $300 to $1900/oz
The volume on the US markets like Nasdaq and SP500 is AT historically lows… but the price action is insane… REMEMBER MARKET GOES UP ON LOW VOLUME IS A BAD ASS SIGN - it’s a bull trap ?!?!
40-50-60% of daily volumes in SPY is 0DTEs (which were basically not used before covid). This is a print 0DTE print from bloomberg on Friday WHERE they were chasing the 440 line and 442 lines in SPY and for once actually failed .
Someone - a Goldman or JPM - is single handily moving the SPY index up, daily, using $billions of dollars in 300k to 600,000 x 7 hours to expiry call option contracts … on very LOW VOLUME. On Friday they targeted 440 line in Spy’s. They do this everyday. These call options are 1/2 or more of the overall market volume... This level of market manipulation is truly astonishing.. I had no idea it was this easy on low volumes but it puts what they did a GGP into context.
The implications is this is a coordinated effort to make it appear that everything’s ok?
Becuase Doris and Dave , Rita and Bob and Sue know everything is OK if they have a job, and the stock market is still going up, right ...? There's no recession... Right? The $32trillion Debt problem is fine... They should carry on spending as normal keep the economy going...
IMO The big boys are simply creating RETAIL FOMO volume and essentially a better price to sell into - when the final crash Phase 3 comes.
Jesus - Even CNBC reporting 50% of US banks will fail ... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/america ... raph.Share
I see JP Morgan just added 20 tonnes of gold (or 5%) increase to their stash ( just last week ) taking their horde to 440 tonnes. I Don’t think they are doing this for fun… not at these prices… https://twitter.com/mrwebber4/status/16 ... 23507?s=20 I case of do as I do not as I say...
Something also tells me this is not what it seems ….
CFTC data today shows there is a net long position in gold now. See the HUGE short position in US Treasury yield’s especially 2+5s … and the SP500…. Massive
So the market is still betting interest rates (NB the largest short bet in history on the 2y treasury) shows that short end rates are predicted to absolutely collapse, starting early 2024. The bond markets doesn't go chaising retail FMO AI Stocks... The bond market says it HOW IT IS...
SO... What do collapsing real rates do to gold …? well it's dynamite that's what it is...
With core inflation still high and real rates collapsing is explosive environment for gold. As is recession. It just takes a few years to play out.
If you listen to that bloke from "Live from the Vault" - Andrew McGuire - - he’s been saying over the past few months the long-short trade in gold has totally switched over … The banks were the big shorts (and the hedge funds were the longs ) . Now it’s totally the other way around. Banks are long and hedge funds are short just in the near term trade - so what happens when the hedge funds go long...?
That's when gold really moves higher
In the meantime, I think what’s happening in the UkK risks us being thought of as a
republic. The BOE have lost control of inflation and the narrative. Rates are set to go a lot higher and if they don't, they crash the currency - which in turn increased : inflation.. Big problem. Not to mention the national debt.
We're between a rock and very hard place here folks. Real growth is slowing at a faster pace. And the world's biggest economies - the US China etc - aren't just struggling, they're now sinking fast. Gold is your only life raft if the USD collapses.
Buying gold stocks now could be the best move since buying GGP in the 2s .
Not advice and DYOR.
I did this in Telegram yesterday (and yes, it's preaching to the choir, I know ), but Sometimes FACTS + DATA - it just helps.
The shorts are still putting their GGP FUD and fear out there... that there is a raise or a placing coming.. Unfortunately Shaun cannot deny this openly as he's obviously planning some sort of accretive acquisition - maybe he's planning to buy Antipa? - who knows?
I find it hard to believe there is a placing associated with Havieron development. When we have already secured T1 Bank Debt funding and have around $76m in the bank (as of Jan 2023). The requirement to secure the debt funding was met ... we just need the DFS.....
and since them we've simply built 30% of a tunnel... Yes, there's the RIO and Scally drilling etc and the wages bill ( but thats not more than $4-5m each IMO )
The MACRO Situation falls into 3 key sections. (And I conclude it's Bullish as Hell for GOLD )
1) Bond market and rates Vs. Gold (BOND yields up = gold down right? - wrong... ! not anymore.
2) Head fake US Tech equity rally driven by principally 4-7 US technology stocks - (which now have the market caps bigger than South American countries - nope. Fade it.)
3) US Economy and jobs market is booming right !!! Soft landing - no landing? - Wrong. New data shows the true figures is 25% unemployment.
https://twitter.com/DonDurrett/status/1 ... 00/photo/1
The US is already in a massive profits recession. The russel2000 tells you that... - Tech earnings are 20% down so far - and 6-7% rates will drive the next round of banking collapses with associated crisis of liquidity. As you probably know, the average consumer has spent all their 'covid savings' and is fully 'on the rails now'. In the UK many people are absolute desperate and mental health is taking its toll.
"... Only 23% Of Individual Equities Have Outperformed The S&P 500 Over The Three Months Through June, Data From BofA Show, Easily The Lowest Share On Record Going Back To 1986." The market has crowded like sheeple into 7 socks.
Gold?
Well Gold is smack bang in the middle of its evolving price risk range up Trend ... with very SIGNIFICANT tail support at around $1800 and Trend support around $1860/70...
But it's still very much bullish trade and trend ( unlike the SP500 , WTI and Copper ). See, this move higher recently, in the face of massive recent rate rises totally defies gravity... . Gold should be at $1660 ...
The fed continues to raise interest rates into a recession - and two more are slated for August and September to 'fight' now sticky inflation. They are raising rates to actively and deliberately to cause a recession. Its impossible to say how big this recession will be and It's pretty surprising that haven't blown the economy up already.... but while everyone is pretending 'everything is A-ok and house prices are holding up . " .. you know it isn't right?
5 banks just blew up in March.
After the big move in interest rates last week - market pricing 2 further rises this month and Sept BUT meanwhile gold has totally absorbed these Big rate moves extremely well... Historically gold would have been absolutely smashed by a 24 bp move in the 10Y T bond.
That = signal strength = Macro Economic signal strength in gold strong AND seems to be front running something big.. Presumably could be a either 1) massive recession or 20 collapse in the USD 3) gold Yuan or more 4) banks blow ups and huge credit crisis... - we don't know what... What we do know is the commercial property is leveraged to low interest rates and that 80% of that is held via small regional banks...
The 24 bp increase in the 10 year treasury rate should have smashed gold price to bits..
Correspondingly - nope there's nothing wrong at GGP - However All gold mining stocks have fallen 20%-30% in the past 4-5 weeks since March april highs in the short term trade basis -
BUT THEY are still bullish in a long term trend basis (fully maintaining tail support).
This is basically presents, IMO, a massive a buying opportunity in gold stocks and juniors giving the most leverage to gold price today.. These prices may never be see again - literally for years - as IMO we are at a major macroeconomic fulcrum point.
As such, on low volume days, presently GGP is no different. Being a large retail component , doesn't help either as sort term shorts come in via FUD on the boards and other drivel and drive the volume ( becuase they think they can bully is PIS into selling at the bottom ). Middle finger boys.
Remember price is always set at the margin... there few actual real sellers and buyers... Volume is tiny. The big boys JPM etc have since moved on, IMO. There is just tiny dickhead retail shorter FUD twits left with very little overall firepower. The big seller in UBS seems to be out also.
THUS - no more sellers GGP means it is primed for a major squeeze up and associate breakout move. We seem to have a lot of Supprt at 6.5 to 7p for now (until new funds come into the market).
Across the wider market, a lot of Fund manager and retail buyers are either 'out' and invested in money market short term cash funds. They are patiently waiting a signal OR foolishly chasing FOMO momentum AI tech stocks like Nvidia to nosebleed valuations. What could possibly go wrong...?
Well just look at the Dot Bomb crash of 2002... 8 x 50% up bear market rallies over two years but 80-90% down overall. Meanwhile gold went from $300 to $1900/oz
The volume on the US markets like Nasdaq and SP500 is AT historically lows… but the price action is insane… REMEMBER MARKET GOES UP ON LOW VOLUME IS A BAD ASS SIGN - it’s a bull trap ?!?!
40-50-60% of daily volumes in SPY is 0DTEs (which were basically not used before covid). This is a print 0DTE print from bloomberg on Friday WHERE they were chasing the 440 line and 442 lines in SPY and for once actually failed . Someone - a Goldman or JPM - is single handily moving the SPY index up, daily, using $billions of dollars in 300k to 600,000 x 7 hours to expiry call option contracts … on very LOW VOLUME. On Friday they targeted 440 line in Spy’s. They do this everyday. These call options are 1/2 or more of the overall market volume... This level of market manipulation is truly astonishing.. I had no idea it was this easy on low volumes but it puts what they did a GGP into context.
The implications is this is a coordinated effort to make it appear that everything’s ok?
Becuase Doris and Dave , Rita and Bob and Sue know everything is OK if they have a job, and the stock market is still going up, right ...? There's no recession... Right? The $32trillion Debt problem is fine... They should carry on spending as normal keep the economy going... IMO The big boys are simply creating RETAIL FOMO volume and essentially a better price to sell into - when the final crash Phase 3 comes.
Jesus - Even CNBC reporting 50% of US banks will fail ... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/america ... raph.Share
I see JP Morgan just added 20 tonnes of gold (or 5%) increase to their stash ( just last week ) taking their horde to 440 tonnes. I Don’t think they are doing this for fun… not at these prices… https://twitter.com/mrwebber4/status/16 ... 23507?s=20 I case of do as I do not as I say...
Something also tells me this is not what it seems ….
CFTC data today shows there is a net long position in gold now. See the HUGE short position in US Treasury yield’s especially 2+5s … and the SP500…. Massive
So the market is still betting interest rates (NB the largest short bet in history on the 2y treasury) shows that short end rates are predicted to absolutely collapse, starting early 2024. The bond markets doesn't go chaising retail FMO AI Stocks... The bond market says it HOW IT IS...
SO... What do collapsing real rates do to gold …? well it's dynamite that's what it is...
With core inflation still high and real rates collapsing is explosive environment for gold. As is recession. It just takes a few years to play out.If you listen to that bloke from "Live from the Vault" - Andrew McGuire - - he’s been saying over the past few months the long-short trade in gold has totally switched over … The banks were the big shorts (and the hedge funds were the longs ) . Now it’s totally the other way around. Banks are long and hedge funds are short just in the near term trade - so what happens when the hedge funds go long...?
That's when gold really moves higher
In the meantime, I think what’s happening in the UkK risks us being thought of as a
republic. The BOE have lost control of inflation and the narrative. Rates are set to go a lot higher and if they don't, they crash the currency - which in turn increased : inflation.. Big problem. Not to mention the national debt. We're between a rock and very hard place here folks. Real growth is slowing at a faster pace. And the world's biggest economies - the US China etc - aren't just struggling, they're now sinking fast. Gold is your only life raft if the USD collapses.
Buying gold stocks now could be the best move since buying GGP in the 2s .
Not advice and DYOR.
will provide me with some much needed funds imminently to top up my GGP investment at these ridiculously low prices.