New Newmont strategy

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Redirons
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Re: New Newmont intel

Post by Redirons »

Sorry but I agree with Hydro’s point of view - as long as he clarifies that he hears things from sources that he cannot identify for fear of losing his connection, then it is what it is - hearsay (albeit clearly from a source Hydro believes in). After that it is up to readers to decide what they think about the hearsay.
I must admit we seem to jump more on perceived rampers than derampers in this world, so fwiw I think Hydro is clear and concise in what he says and either evidences it, or states it is from an unnamed source.
Redirons
spadesAspade
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by spadesAspade »

I fully agree with you Red.
Almost everything discussed on here, GGPchat or LSE is all opinion and not fact. So as you say, let the reader judge for him/herself whether to believe it or take it with a pinch of salt.

The only thing you can actually say is fact are the RNS’s, but then if fact is only to be allowed, then what is the point of these forums ?

No point in discussing the “What if’s & maybe’s”, as they are just musings from many folk who quite frankly can’t even be bothered to spend time researching GGP.

The amount of times I have had to put my head to my hands, when I see posters asking questions that quite frankly they should be up to speed with, just makes we wonder why on earth have they even invested.
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Spondy
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Spondy »

@spadesAspade

Couldn't help noticing your 'signature' here is using clubs.

Whatever.
Michael
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Michael »

Hydro this discussion about Greatland Gold and their views are at odds with what you’ve written above. Thoughts?

https://youtu.be/dxGMNZpt9Vk?si=TmyceuIxcP5qSUdA
Hydrogen
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

Just been out for a run so only just seen a bit of it so far. I do respect these guys (so it’s going to be necessary to listen carefully.

Firstly my initial reaction they don’t fully understand the story, that’s clear. However I also spotted a bunch of glaring errors and big factual inaccuracies on cash and resources (which they hinged the episode on).

I need to watch it again. They are speculating based on media articles. But they are confused - because they can clearly detect in the numbers how NCM tried hard to screw us to buy buy cheap.

I will write a more detailed review when I get chance. Having these guys interested is a good thing because they like and respect Wyloo. But they are skeptical of the numbers - which was always NCMs objective!

Wait till ggp hit their new resources and DFS. That’s why Jupiter piled in. Ned took the time to figure out a complex situation.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Sat Sep 16, 2023 11:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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GoGreen1
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by GoGreen1 »

For me the Money of Mine piece only told half the story. They noticed that the valuations in the NCM scheme doc were weird and then used them and the £60m 5% valuation as per the scheme document, and didn’t contrast that to the actual value of the Havieron asset already identified as a JORC resource and its potential growth since then ie the actual value of it taking into account AiSC etc. They also noted that the capex to develop a block cave is high but didn’t note that the starter mine at Hav using the SE crescent will fund the block cave. Shaun has referred to that many times. It was good to see ggp get the coverage from them and that they discussed it in a bit of detail but it wasn’t a full analysis of the value or costs to enable them to come to the conclusion they did. I do agree that the Wyloo debt funding is potentially expensive so not an ideal option but what it does do is buy ggp another year to get well positioned on Havieron, through all this NCM/NEM deal. I agree with earlier comments that NCM were trying to run ggp down and buy us out on the cheap, so at least they failed on that!!
DipSard
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by DipSard »

My main takeaway is how it seems that it's what the major and majority partner releases in terms of studies, resource estimates and comms that most seem to dictate the perception and understanding of the asset although GGP have released their own updated and JORC compliant MRE.

Much like how on HotCopper the NCM PI's posting there just see Hav as a Tier 2 without seeing the future Tier 1 potential having just built their understanding from NCM PFS, MRE's and market releases and expected NCM to snap it up from us at some stage. They'd have a better understanding if they also read GGP's releases etc. but why would they I guess, so their perceptions and understanding comes from what NCM releases...

These guys did pick up on the valuations in NCM's scheme doc being funky though as GG1 says and also noted they aren't picking up on the SLOS mine being able to ease the financing of developing future bulk mining which in turn pays for mining other zones of the ore body. It's interesting that savvy Ozzies aren't fully aware of the true potential of Havieron and certainly an ASX listing with our own market releases in their local market might help build a more accurate narrative for Havieron and GGP.
“Study the past if you would define the future.” ― Confucius
Stebol
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Stebol »

In terms of Newmont strategy, the bottom line is 'nobody knows'.

Sure, there is plenty of speculation based on hunches or contacts but we are still, essentially, clueless.

And does it matter?

From what I can see, everyone who was invested here are, for the most part, still invested here and have no intention of selling.

Gold going up / going down - no problem, not selling.
GGP getting screwed over by NCM - not selling.
Shorts opening / shorts closing - don't care, not selling.
Newmont will divest Telfer / Hav - so what, not selling.
Newmont will want all of it - would be gutted losing 40 years of income but hey, not selling.
3rd party comes in, buys Telfer and NCM 70% - so what, not selling.
GGP will raise on ASX listing - slightly nervous but not selling.
Newmont divest, GGP buy the 70% and Telfer - still not selling.

Plenty of other scenarios out there but I guess my point is that none of it matters really. Long term holders know, beyond any doubt, that our main asset is worth way more than current market cap. So all the noise is just that - noise.

There is no feasible scenario that can be presented that is going to persuade the silent majority to part with their shares.

Nice to see the SP up a bit but even if it drops again then I, and I suspect many others, are still not selling.

Keep on speculating because it's interesting, but ultimately it will make no difference to the the outcome.

It's going to be an fun few months I suspect, but that's just me speculating!!
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

Agreed Steebol, nobody knows anything for certain, not least because strategy changes. But what’s interesting is everyone in the media seems to think NM will sell Telfer.

Not quite sure how GGP could fund such a purchase and the development tho? However my contact says, at this stage there will be… No sale.

And perhaps this “Money of Mine” episode goes some way to offering an explanation? Maybe Telfer won’t be sold because it can’t be sold very easily. Not as it stands - not enough profit in it, chiefly because that ridiculous NCM PFS was way too small?

Any quick sale would effectively be a fire sale.

Also with GGPs complication : our LROR - last right of refusal - that means it’s not going to be straightforward sale at all. Any potential buyer risks effectively be gazumped by GGP/Wyloo. So why would a 3rd party even go to all that trouble, if you know you cannot be guaranteed a fair market?

Effectively that makes Wyloo/GGP the only realistic bidder in my mind.

A good reason for NM to sell to ggp? Possibly. But perhaps not before they fully know what’s there? Once it’s understood, Wyloo could buy Telfer and the 70% and have Shaun run it..

They just gave us two tenements. Both the new exploration tenements have been relinquished by Twiggy. That categorically suggests GGP is now Wyloo's exploration division.

Market hasn't fully contemplated this relationship yet. (Big hitters from Fortescue on board at GGP for the long haul)

Telfer cannot easily be sold. Not with this huge rehab burden. Not with GGPs LROR and Newmont will know that.

However Wyloo/GGP could easily bridge that gap. If Newmont choose to sell.

And then there’s Goliath. Scally and the rest

Popcorn...
Last edited by Hydrogen on Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Hydrogen
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

Also Steebol...

If you doubt my info.. maybe go back and double check Telegram... where back around 2 years ago (i have no access to the GGP Chat now so cannot search it - but I mentioned an Australian Billionaire was 'looking over' GGP. I contend, at the time I didn't know who, - but I do recall someone in Telegram saying 'I hope it's Twiggy or Gina".

... But, I had a heads up two years ago before Feb 21 that some one big was 'weighing up' GGP/Havieron, a full year or so before they emerged.

It's all there in the Telgram history. Call it a lucky guess if you like.

But I did find this example in another chat....


Screenshot 2023-09-17 at 09.59.56.png


Absolute Shenanigans a-foot on reflection ... Like you say hold like Diamond Hands. They only go after the good ones.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:54 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Stebol
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Stebol »

Maybe you missed my point Hydrogen.

I never said I doubted your info - simply that to me, it makes no difference other than being something interesting to think about.

Once I'd invested and built a position I was happy with then that was it. Once the genie was out of the bottle in terms of market awareness of GGP: the spectacular ride up in the SP; the 'death by a thousand cuts' decline in the SP; the 'oh crap' moment you realised you should have sold a chunk in the 30's, well, after that, no amount of intel (positive or negative) will persuade me to part with my shares.

Apologies if you thought I was having a pop - that certainly was not my intention.

Good luck with the other Aussie bird if you're still in.
Michael
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Michael »

I remember that as well Hydro. I suggested Twiggy since he is a legend in Oz, but I knew most here in the UK didn’t have a clue who he was at the time. Well they do now. And I welcome Wyloo with open arms. Shame they didn’t come onboard when the share price was much higher as it would have been a good baseline, however we can’t change that now. Need to look ahead and what’s coming up.

I don’t think even Shaun expected the share price to be back here. Callum is holding strong and his interviews with Liam were great. Hopefully a follow up interview will come to hear what Callum thinks of things as of now.
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

Here's my thoughts on the Money of Mine piece.

Firstly the key point is these guys do categorically detect that NCM haven’t behaved fairly towards GGP. They talk about NCM wanting GGPs Share price down. Confirmed by their quote of NCM's ' 30% inflated mining costs in the PFS and the Joke of NPV attached to the project'.

Why does someone try to screw with your SP? - well principally, because they wanted to buy you. This supports my previously articulated narratives/arguments..

16.06 They say " At 31st December [Greatland's] cash reserves were 'about' $32m bucks Aussie" - This isn't correct.

As of 31st December 22 Greatland's cash were £59m or $76mUS or $115m Oz - See the GGP Annual report published 31s March 2023 :

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/up ... r-2022.pdf

Screenshot 2023-09-18 at 00.10.56.png


The RNS they pull up (on screen) states that 'as of 30th June we have £31m ( which is AUD$60m not 32m and $39m US).

If you take our cash burn as $5.8m per month ( that's broadly calculated from $74m in December 31st - minus $39m 30th June = $35m/6 = 5.8m US per month (however we were still drilling extensively at this point which is expensive). Then add in July -Sept 3 x $5.8 = $ 17.5m so 39m-17.5m = US$21.5m as of the end of September Ie AUD$33m - we still have plenty of cash as Shaun states.

Essentially we have runway of AUD$34m which should take us through January/February depending on how the spending is going, maybe till Feb/March. The caveat is we are no longer paying for 3-4 deep drill rigs. Looking at the Satellites, much of the surface work is completed - evaporate ponds are in. How much more spending can be done reaching the ore body by which point the FS has to be out?

The implication of this however is 1) the MoM guys have the wrong idea on the cash situation (which goes on to set the tone ) where they assume we're skint yet 2) don't mention or appear to have any handle on the US$220m debt facility and 3) whilst they recognise NCM have tried to get the GGP SP down, they don't look into other things that NCM may have deliberately omitted ( to hurt GGP's SP ) , albeit, they do CATEGORICALLY seem to smell a rat. Tbf they are learning about a complex situation, that's been ongoing for some time.

Not the best start by MoM guys. Record ideally needs to be set straight. And TBF unless you know this story inside out I suspect misunderstandings are pretty widespread , if you just look at the NCM PFS and the corporate updates (and not the drilling data that underpins it). data that's 80,000 drill meters (or 25% and 2 years of all available drilling) out of date .

Eg Resource Drill spacings required overly tight at Hav 25x25m - whereas other projects are 50- 100-200m for resource. Mining costs inflated 30%. Commodity price assumptions deflated 25%. lack of Haul shaft/conveyor decline etc in PFS.

Shocking that ncm inflated the mining costs while using $1500 gold, when the gold price is 25-30% higher.

If ncm has done all this... it sure makes you wonder what ELSE they've done? - eg to the overall Capex hurdles? I was always pretty surprised at the $370m Hav mine price tag / cost seeming quite high, considering we had no major plant/mill to permit and build, no accommodation, no bitumen Airstrip etc no major infrastructure apart from the access road.

Ok moving on.

They calculate the Wyloo loan is about 15.5% finance cost Fine. It’s very short term as a DFS unlocks the debt to easily pay down all loans. What He doesn't understand is the 15% jump in Share price for GGP was most probably shorts closing and possibly even Wyloo buying in the market on Thursday.

IMO - The only outfit that can feasibly buy Telfer is Wyloo... Unless GGP can raise $800m in Debt. ie $500m to buy Telfer Hav and then say $300m further to build the mine..

There's an interesting point here that emerges in these figures. If US$70 odd million has been spent by GGP on Havieron, then overall circa $163m has been spent by Newcrest building the mine so prorata thats about US$200m

If the mine was budgeted at $365m $200m goes somewhere past half way. . In principle the mine should be over half built in terms of capex costs prior to DFS which is just nuts!!. Thats how much they have tried to pressure us and continue to do so.

Shaun has just blown them up though... Because the wyoo loan - while viewed with understandable scepticism by Money of mine actually in this context tactically shows real muscle and makes the ncm strangle on costs look over. The loan is also un secured:

Security: Unsecured (other than the provision of a parent company guarantee by the Guarantor). So it's not like we risk losing our Asset Wyloo just want to show the market they back Shaun. Which in turn will hit the word key word 'perception'

According to Rusty Dellroy 9/10ths of a Mining Developers valuation is based on market perception that a project will happen or be delivered.

With potentially 40-50% of the mine Capex already spent... Havieron is happening and Wyloo are bankrolling GGP to make it happen.

It's therefore evident to me there's compelling arguments that whatever finally comes out of a Newmont-Hav rework it could vastly surprise to the upside .. by just reverting to sensible numbers.

You can only hold a ball underwater so long.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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weejock
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by weejock »

Love your work Hydro.

One small observation - might they be referring to net cash position of Aussie 31M at 31 Dec 2022?
Hydrogen
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

So Palmer finally confirms to you what I said 2 months ago...
Listen to the newspapers at your peril - they have been saying for months Telfer would get sold.
And he's not talking the price up.
They want the copper.
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ManFromUruguay
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by ManFromUruguay »

https://archive.ph/ViJKF

This article suggests they will offload.🤔
CK 1974
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by CK 1974 »

There’s been and will be a lot of articles telling us what they think will happen. Tom seems to be swaying towards keeping hav and telfer…..just a waiting game now
Aiming2please
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Aiming2please »

Wait till it’s from the horses mouth is a safe bet
Hydrogen
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Hydrogen »

Just as I said to you all not so long ago ... 41.30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrmQjhe27jc

Big section on the NCM - Newmont takeover. What comes out of this detailed chat by the main Oz press and gossip 'boys in the know'... is absolutey fascinating

They appear (to me) to know that Telfer is not for sale. Now remember, these guys were not long ago printing articles that 'Telfer was for the chop'.

https://archive.ph/ViJKF

IMO - The fact the direct question 'is Telfer getting sold?' was absolutely ducked and avoided is as surprising as it was conspicuous - but the chat around that subject was telling enough.

Remember these guys at AFR are the biz gossip columnists that also leaked the 'possible' GGP fund raise... which did GGP a lot of damage

They now say "Newmont way more likely to sell their various Ontario , Canadian assets - several marginal mines. but BC assets Red Chris and Brucejack are Core.

These guys know Tom Palmer personally. And its pretty clear to me now Palmer knows Havieron is a slam dunk.

That IMO 100% makes GGP a new Target here... or less likely, the long term Newmont 30% JV partner, which makes Shuan Day's 3 options suddenly, 2.

And us very rich..... Love it.
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Stebol
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Re: New Newmont strategy

Post by Stebol »

Hi Hydrogen

So the guys that fucked us over with the ASX raise rumour, and thought that Telfer was for the chop, have now changed their minds? And they're supposed to be 'in the know'?

Jesus mate, anyone can do that - they either know or they don't. I'd have to say they have no more clue than the rest of us - they might change their tune again tomorrow if it suits their position.

What is clear is that a big chunk of our impressive board are looking forward to coming over shortly - I don't imagine it's for the sandwiches.

I think we've got 100% Hav and Telfer although I reserve the right to change my mind at short notice, depending on how the wind blows.

Aussie bird getting interesting - best regards to you and yours Hydrogen
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