Well obviously not quite as on the pulse as some, eh Steebol? I’ll give you that...
but TBF I do really respect the Money of Mine guys opinions on the whole they are shrewd and on point, so I think that gives these two some credit, even if it’s 3months behind the 8 ball .
Taking of our Bird Steebol
The Money of Mine guys took a look under the hood of Aussie gas in a podcast earlier this week about Santos/Woodside- well worth sharing on tbe relevant LSE site - as it was bloody eye watering re the east cost shortfall. Starts 10mins in https://youtu.be/0UsebBF7z1o?si=Idy0LRb7h-Z4fgt9
Plus their recent fund manger hot picks episode for 24 included natural gas as a key commodity pick by several professionals.
The info from Hydrogen’s “good source” has turned out to be incorrect. The outcome described as “NO [effing] way - and I mean totally ZERO chance” is happening after all.
Hydrogen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:52 am
I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer.
You know what that means/implies..? YUP - no ‘big’ cash raise.
(snipped)
IMO This is how it's going to play out:
My source suggested there is absolutely NO [effing] way - and I mean totally ZERO chance - that Newmont is planning to spin out Telfer/Havieron fast.. Becuase i kid you not, they are saying Havieron will produce for 'Generations'. And much of the processing Capital has been spent. We're in a toll treating situation.
(I had a personal debate as what 'Generations' implies - either 2x15 years or 2x25 years - but I take it as at least 40 years and at least as big as Telfer.
So what does this mean ? Well obviously it may appear to mean no BIG dilutive raise to buy out NCM's 70% of Hav and/or Telfer. It means Havieron is a 'goer' as is... And no complications raising the capital required to develop a big project (a la SXX) Again All My personal preference - I was about to get a little upset if Newmont chose to 'pass' on Hav TBF)
Hand on Heart, whats your own thinking now after ' I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer.'
Yes - Hand on heart jiffy they are as shocked and surprised as me. But that info was 6 months ago mind.
Looks like a pretty severe and sudden change of tact. I guess that happens. This has very much surprised the market and surprised everyone and I suppose the truth is it’s a little impossible to know how the mind of Newmont Executives changes.
But I can't help but think now that this is being fully lined up for GGP.
We know for a fact that outcome was Shaun Day's dream opportunity.
I suppose it begs the question why let it go though?
That could be as simple as the have a willing buying waiting and they need the money. Or it could be they prefer canada.
The latest thinking from my friend is as follows :
Telfer M&A our thinking - from my mining contact:
• The Australian reports:
• Regis Resources and Gold Road Resources tipped as 'most likely' buyers of Newmont's Telfer mine
Northern Star Resources and Evolution
Mining both recently stated that acquisitions were not in the plans for the upcoming year
• GOR does not seem to be a natural buyer as Telfer is a big company asset with a large environmental liability
EVN having trouble integrating Red Lake so doubt they will look to bring on another difficult asset
• Should not underestimate the strategic importance of Telfer's mill for the Paterson Provence, buyer will be more focused on that than the deposit
• I think Regis or NST most likely ASX listed buyers, shouldn't discount offshore though, are Anglo are looking for acquisition in North America/Australia?
• RIO & IGO in the Area.
Not sure what appetite Twiggy has with MCR causing issues, however is the largest shareholder of Greatland, and would be a unique opportunity to consolidate.
A new owner is positive for Antipa Minerals
(AZY) as they will most likely be more positive and hungrier than Newmont.
As a reminder, AZY has th Minyari Dome Project in the area, Newmont own 9.9% of AZY, IGO also owns 4.1%
Last edited by Hydrogen on Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I think it's as simple as looking through the inventory of assets and determining how they were going to make their $2Bn.
As for Telfer, the empirical data shows that there is no absolute guarantee that they will ever work the plant at 100% capacity again, therefore it will (in their minds) be sub-optimal.
Let it go to an organisation that is willing to bet that one of the many opportunities in the Paterson comes up trumps.
Everyone thinks that the area is elephant country........but there are no guarantees and therefore taking on Telfer will come with risky opportunities.
And lets not forget Barrick and Newmont's letting go of Assets like Paulsens and Jundee is what made Northern Star - transforming it into one of the Biggest gold miners in the world.
Northern Star bought Paulsens gold mine for $40m in 2010/11 - it then went on to only produce 486koz over the next 8 years - but what a company maker asset for Northern Star essentially in a down gold cycle too? :
We know Havieron has the capacity to produce 300koz-600koz for 10s of years. And with the modern efficiencies of bulk mining production techniques :
Tell me - How , Francis, how will ALL present owners of GGP NOT benefit from that?
.