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New Newmont strategy

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:52 am
by Hydrogen
Some of you may be Getting a bit sea-sick with the shorting this week, so I had to try and find out what's going on.

I have it from a good source and Oz based mining friend: There will be No Newmont spin out of Telfer.

You know what that means/implies..? YUP - no ‘big’ cash raise.

This week was / is just a hard nosed smash short and grab (off PIs) all prior to ASX listing - executed over the past week by the BB Boys - Yup we all they know who they are. Hold tight and show them the middle finger...

But you won't believe some of this... here are the best snippets..

Unsurprisingly... word is Newmont TOTALY loves the data surrounding Havieron. Of Course, Why wouldn't they? - We all know it's massive, and we also know Newcrest calculated it was worth turning nasty with GGP over the 5% etc etc (all in an attempt to either further dilute or bankrupt us).

That's not to mention the new 100% validating comments ( which just landed today ) from independent 'investor to the billionaires' - Warren Gilman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ApPF55jj-w

In fact: That whole Warren Gilman interview was quite enlightening. Funding by convertible debentures - interesting stuff AND he never missed a beat when emphatically rating Greatland as 'undervalued' (last 5 minutes).

There's a reason Jupiter, Tribecca and Wyloo piled in en-mass into GGP's share register at 8.2p.

... Havieron, it seems, is regarded as potentially a comparable project to Newmont's massive Tier 1 (5g/t underground) Tanama Gold mine in the NT (where a recently added a haul shaft will expand production and extended mine life to 2040) See https://www.mining-technology.com/proje ... australia/

To get your head around the similarities consider the 1400M depth -very close compared to our Eastern Breccia.

IMO This is how it's going to play out:

My source suggested there is absolutely NO [effing] way - and I mean totally ZERO chance - that Newmont is planning to spin out Telfer/Havieron fast.. Becuase i kid you not, they are saying Havieron will produce for 'Generations'. And much of the processing Capital has been spent. We're in a toll treating situation.

(I had a personal debate as what 'Generations' implies - either 2x15 years or 2x25 years - but I take it as at least 40 years and at least as big as Telfer.

So what does this mean ? Well obviously it may appear to mean no BIG dilutive raise to buy out NCM's 70% of Hav and/or Telfer. It means Havieron is a 'goer' as is... And no complications raising the capital required to develop a big project (a la SXX) Again All My personal preference - I was about to get a little upset if Newmont chose to 'pass' on Hav TBF)

It also presumably means GGP instantly becomes very firmly a potential Newmont Takeover Target.

In principle, with our $220m debt and cashed up balance sheet we are smoothly set up for GGPS 30% share of the development cost no problem. And, with the decline already in place, we should be digging pay dirt next year: Essentially - GGP has the cash to deliver the enhanced 3mt project.

It was therefore the view of my source that our resident short 100% knows all this.

As a consequence, they also know they have very little time to short-smash and grab and accumulate as much stock as possible - prior to the upcoming ASX listing. A last hurra if you like, knowing GGP automatically becomes a fully funded Newmont Take over Target on delivery of a DFS.

So the shorts have set out to publish the message that GGPs is either trash or screwed etc and a 'confetti day' will raise big time to his mates etc etc .. at EVERY opportunity (via every channel possible), whilst simultaneously shorting the stock to shake out weak PIs. Obviously it's a ploy. But moving price is not that difficult on low volume - look at what GDXJ did 16p to 27p buying 240m - imagine what the ASX pension funds will do...?

These Multi ID trolls are well know to us.. going after YOU the largest cohort of PIs who own 75% of GGP ... our resident short 'The BB Boys' - we/they know who they are - are working across LSE and AFDVN and twitter systematically 'discredit attacking' Bamps, Paddy and me. ( I wonder why ?) :lol:

And then there's the 60-65m Ortex on loan, outstanding, to close - albeit we're not sure about this...

Possibly Jupiter's Asset Managmemt's recent 102million share slow burn purchase caught them 'off guard' and they simply had to deploy the 'kitchen sink' to get price where they wanted for some very large short closing trades, in the near future? Maybe just maybe there won't be a raise at all and they will have no easy exit whatsoever... ?

Make no mistake... There was a massive battle today. And a hell of a lot of volume, - almost 20m - from literally nowhere. Expect a roller coaster, going forward... today was probably only the beginning.

Screenshot 2023-09-07 at 08.46.34.png

But think about it - logic dictates and GGP's own Annual Full year Report (March 23) states we had US$76m in the Bank as of Jan 23. We are certainly not 'cash strapped'. Shaun however is clearly between a rock and hard place - he can neither confirm nor deny any possible raise - especially if talks have occurred - and why not? - considering the company's finance options pre cash generation is obviously prudent.. And the shorts will know they can use that one tactic to bash him with... hence the 'news leaks'... But IMO he's a pretty straight bat -as Ned at Jupiter must also have decided - so taking Shaun at his word - any raise would be ONLY be to secure a 2nd asset or to 100% secure or protect us from some extended mass development of Havieron (given we only have debt funding in place..for 2-3mt)

But equally whose to say Newmont's view of a DFS isn't for 8-9mt with a huge Haul shaft etc.? This is not gossip - it was of course mentioned in GGPs recent sustainability report.

The ASX listing and prospectus are fast approaching. I'm guessing here, but, the potential is for these documents to likely contain some real humdingers - the sort of which meant Borelli couldn't execute his options. The sort that move markets.. Presumably one could even speculate on a 5-6mt Haul shaft, the Nickel content and/or speculate on some very large Production tonnages, who knows - even bulk underground potential?

Anyway middle finger to the BB Boys - I'm topping up when I can...

And remember, 'Price is set at the Margin'. (So a few 1000 sellers of houses control the entire market for literally millions of home owners)

What did we used to say ...?

You can't un-find the gold ( LSE )
10 x the grades of Telfer and the best grades of the region (Sandeep Bizwas)
Sit on those hands (Paddy Gall)
If you take into consideration grade zonation there's roughly 20moz (Shaun Day)
Don't Nickel and Dime me... Hydrogen :roll:
And my favourite.... 'don't forget the copper' (Bamps) b/c frankly it's a game changer
Basically if you have a long life copper-gold asset, then you're in Nirvana - (Pierre Lassonde).

Hold. For. Gold.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:18 am
by The Doors
Hydro, I really really enjoyed reading this. It came at a useful time and you ate right to point out there will be more tough yards to go for a while. With today’s announcement about the merger process it does feel like this is the stage when our balls of steel need a titanium coating now to get us all to the point we have been waiting for.

The Warren Gilman interview was ace too and added so much to seeing beyond the trees.
I’m buying more shortly anyway.
Middle finger to the vermin suppressing this.


ATB

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:58 am
by Aiming2please
Do they not realise the more they drop it the more we buy, clever aren’t they.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:17 am
by FuttBucker
Thanks Hydro for the reassurances. Certainly thought it was odd that an 18m day came out of nowhere, and was waiting to see what landed today.
The Doors wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:18 am ... our balls of steel need a titanium coating now to get us all to the point we have been waiting for.
I'm almost certain there is some kind of galvanic issue here, I'm a metallurgy grad and stuff like this makes my eye twitch 😉

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:21 pm
by scorpiostar13
This was a great post from Hydro. Personally, good or bad I have put all my eggs in one basket. It has not been an uneducated investment as I really believe in the quality of the ore body and the team of GGP. But as the other guy said we need balls of steel with a titanium coating .

Nonetheless I am confident Havieron will have a positive outcome for us all.

It was a very interesting video. Thank you. Hydro

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:43 pm
by poniexpress
:lol:
Great work Hydrogen. It becomes so clear now.
Every true investor must read this.
Advice, Keep right on to the end of the road to get your just returns.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 9:16 pm
by Redirons
Thanks Hydro - well reasoned and evidenced as ever!!
No one ever said it is easy to make wealth, but finding Havieron certainly gives us the very best chance. Now it is over to Shaun and his constructed BoD and financial backers to drive this home. VGLA true Greatlanders!!

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 8:08 am
by Hydrogen
Well Well Well ....

Told you all no raise was coming.

Shorts getting one slpped back at them by Wyloo... (and ooof it's a rather big one)

I'll bet Wyloo are in the market today buying - just to create extra momentum too

Quite like Shaun taking his dirty fighting talk !!

Sorry BB boys ... You know who you are. How does it feel to be on the wrong end of that?

Can you hear the Sound of Troll Silence..?
Hello margin My old Friend
Shaun's come to talk with you again...

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 8:14 am
by FuttBucker
It's like in GCSE maths where you have the right answer but for the wrong reasons 😉

Either way, I'll take it and I'm glad SD has removed another couple of fud arguments.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 8:36 am
by ‘96dc2
Shorts are going to have to work hard today and double down , or gtfo..👍

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:13 am
by Hydrogen
Mr Butt - All I will say, is just wait till you find our what Newmont have got in store for Havieron... 😳😉😉😉😉
Everything I told you is the truth as I genuinely see it ( as the position stands today ).
Newmont will not be spinning out Havieron, ( becuase the drilling - and common sense - shows it's just way too big).
IMO Newmont will take one look at NCMs piddly PFS and want to see a monstrous 8-9mt per annum DFS re-work
Becuase, that's what Havieron with the addition of a Haul shaft can deliver. It's ducking massive.
Anyone with a geology / mining brain can see that...
What is now absolutely clear is my previous narrative that the twats at Newcrest tried their best (for whatever reason?) to screw the little guy.
To buy GGP out cheap ...
Becuase as I have said many times before ... They will be mining Hav for Generations... (Did you notice that? Generation(s) plural).

AND What this all proves is that piss poor dilution is simply NOT happening. Shaun is not having that. Wyloo are not supporting that type of dilution.
So much for 'Confetti Day'... Debt is by far the better option ( as per the Money of Mine guy Warren Gilman and his Funding by convertible debentures)
And the beauty of all this is the gold price is about to move higher....

Everyone can see, that as soon as the 10y Treasury Yield rolls over gold is going hockey stick vertical to $3500/oz
So he might as well wait for that to begin to happen prior to a raise.
Further, the MRE could be for 9+ Moz anyway and that should just under double our reserves.
The Eastern Breccia is absolutely massive - you've seen the latest X section slide - it's as big as the main deposit in terms of gold.

Can you hear the sound of troll silence?
Massive 'Cocks on the Table' moment today.
What you gunna do JBerg?

Personally, I'm just going to wait for the 9moz MRE3 and buy what I can, when I can.
Also IMO we are 100% officially a Newmont buy out target now.
That could even easily be the 118m GPP 2% position being built anonymously which seemed to stir the pot somewhat when i mentioned them.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:11 am
by FuttBucker
I don't think it's cocks on the block, it's just a reasonable step forward. It doesn't need to go astronomical today (I'd welcome it but...), it feels like another step towards where we think we're going.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:36 am
by Bottle Rocket - Liam
This will go down like a lead balloon.

That is a lot of hearsay. with very little evidence of proof.
Whilst your "source" may be Tom Palmer feeding you info and be 100% correct.
There is no way of verifying this "information"...

Per the rules...
"- If you post something as a fact, please support it with evidence - be prepared to support facts with sources.

So, is there proof? or is this just someone's opinion that is being sold to you as fact?


Liam

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:47 am
by Hydrogen
x

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:57 am
by DipSard
Hi Hydro , have to back Liam on this that unless there is proven intel into C-Suite level at Newmont then we can only state anything as our own assumptions/opinions on which path Newmont might take with divestment, acquisition or retaining JV at this juncture. And of course the irony is that this kind of intel would mean ensuring confidentiality to protect the source/s.

So for these reasons it is best to ensure that rumours no matter how well quantified anyone feels they are, are not articulated as an absolute truth or fixed outcome. Can't argue that you were spot on with the nickel and if this is the same source/s then they have some weight perhaps.

The rules are there to ensure that this space doesn't become akin to other chat forums and maintains credibility and balance as we all know how much work and effort has gone into creating and maintaining this space for everyone's benefit so important we all stay respectful of the rules in respect of that hard work by Liam and others.

Otherwise, it becomes okay for anyone to state anything as an absolute without proof :-)

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 11:03 am
by FuttBucker
Hydrogen wrote: Thu Sep 14, 2023 10:47 am Remember I was the first person to observe.....
Hypothesise 😉

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 11:14 am
by Hydrogen
Indeed. Butt, Indeed, it was presented a 'Hypothesis' at the time... on reflection, today, more of an observation. Wouldn't you say?

I think I recall I also ' hypothesised' that Newcrest would try to buy GGP in 2022 - using their shitty PFS, followed up by using their pitiful 5% clause valuation as leverage to screw us over...

A real epic of David and Goliath. Day v Biswaz.

Look Liam/Dip you can always delete my posts, if you think they are inappropriate.

All I'm saying is I have heard that Newmont won't spin Havieron out.
It is my opinion, that this is good opinion.

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:39 pm
by zoros
I have to hand it to you Hydro. If you were a newspaper magnate - you'd be one very successful one, News sells, if there is no news - make it up, who can double check it?
I'm not saying you are making 'stuff' up along this long and windy way but can I ask you to calm it all down?
You'd be far more effective/respected if you remained calm and composed.

I wish for everyone's sake that part/some of what you tell us (daily) is fact and will happen.
Sometimes - less is more, eh?

PS: I have been with you all the way regarding NCM (now NEM) buying GGP's share of Hav out.
Best
Z

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:20 pm
by Hydrogen
Fair point Z.

(Not making any of it up either. Albeit, narratives and direction change as the Havieron chess game unfolds).

Re: New Newmont intel

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:42 am
by Scoobydoog
Hydro. Always appreciate your posts but also have to agree with Liam.

Intel is either rumour or insider information until it's formally confirmed by the company.

When it comes to communication, less is more.

Atb
Scoob