GGPChat

I wrote this for a laugh over on AVDFN - it will no doubt ruffle fathers and potentially worse - so I'm posting it here just in case. Whilst it is clearly embelshed for story telling it is based on real events and comments made by ADVFN contributors.

Here's a possible Narrative - I kid you not, this is damn close:

HavingToast, Lurker And Halland75 work together have this fat, very rich mate they call 'Evil'. That much is true, And toast claimed his friend Evil is the GGP short. They have to somehow get EVIL out of his position (circa 58M GGP short position and total speculation but it could be as much as 20- 30% is Evil)

The Reason: They have just all been screwed by Luca from Wyloo.

Where, basically Evil - he looks a bit Jabba The 'heart attack' hut like - dropped IMO an estimated £1-2 million shorting GGP ... Unfortunately... this was late in the game - around 8p.

Much of the timing corresponds with HavingToast's appearance on ADVFN... principally he admits he arrived to 'counter' me. Toast says his Pal Evil was in principal based on Lurker5 'Cornford' and Toast's “genius” mathematical 'advice' to Jabba that dilutive ASX placing was 100% nailed on in the land of GGP. Presumably That would be the exit.

Rather foolish. Because, as we now know... ( and I said all along ... ) : there was no placing. Now Jabba wants blood - What if he's already down a bit going hard at 5.8p and no matter what they throw at it - it wont seem to go lower?

An MRE is stated as incoming…. meanwhile.. It’s highly probable that White knights at Wyloo are quietly topping up Jedi style. What's a few million extra in ggp stock to them at 6p? It's a bonus is what it is.

Shaun Day made it crystal clear he doesn't want or need any of this market's money. He was just considering offering a liquidity event to ASX pension funds and the cash would be useful. He knows he can say this , because, he’s certain he knows exactly how much a 30% share of an enlarged Havieron mine will cost. (He's also going to be digging out high grade pay dirt in 6-9 months).

Of note - PS 30% JVs on long life assets are quite common stock in the Newmont portfolio - they have a bunch of them with Barrick in Nevada assists and Agnico Eagle in Columbia.

So Cornford/Lurker states strongly believes GGPs US $180m debt re-payments will somehow cripple GGP/Shaun (which lurker also somehow inflates when referencing them to >$300m to make the numbers looks worse in his calcs than they are. When in fact he know the mine will cost around $125m US ( net to GGP ). And IMO approaching 40-50% of that has already been spent.

But and here's the thing: what our friends Evil and Jerker Lurker fail to accept / admit / understand - is that the existing Hav PFS, upon which the Havieron Mine project CAPEX was based upon - we know - contains around 30-35% inflated mining costs across the board, already embedded within ... This was independently suggested and highlighted by respected mining investment critics 'Money of Mine' in their recent podcast.

As we know - These inflated mining costs, embedded by NCM into the PFS, were designed to produce a very weak NPV - at £305m AUZ - (pretty much a Joke since this is around 40-50% less than they have already invested in Havieron so far ) - ALL to try to bankrupt GGP, create uncertainty, and thus facilitate a highly discounted 5% valuation (and ultimately a cheap buy GGP out ).

But this is where it gets interesting…

The idea was that GGP would go broke and/or have to keep raising emergency 'death spiral' type money and this would be disastrous for their 30% ( or 25% ) share.

What Jerker Lurker doesn't get.... (or moreover cannot possibly admit).... is that the new Havieron DFS will look orders of magnitude different to the existing PFS... becuase the new DFS's objective will be TOTALLY different.

Hence the 'big' delay. (I mean efficiency tweaks and cost savings like adding Solar power don't take 18 months - they take 12-16 weeks).

Rather than Bankrupt GGP - and get a small mine big enough to get just past the NCM board - IMO the new Havieron DFS will have to speak to the significant scale and huge potential profitability of the deposit - which is very high grade across the first 500m of the deposit 8500oz/vertical meter. A mine with exceptional IRR and a stunning payback, with high grades, with a very, very long life and an exceptional NPV. This is obviously why Luca coughed up $50m

This is where the 'tweaks' will be. After the 5% debacle it was obviously we needed a new JV partner - Newmont have to now take over and will be permitted to draw a line in the sand.

Cornford and Burning Toast now realise this. Albeit they cannot admit it... because his plus size Jabba is still madly short GGP - And has been since the raise. (And may have to put Lurker5 in a carbonate deep freeze if he doesn't get all his money back).

So we have this ongoing barage of negativity from Toast Steliar2000, Jerker and the ADVFN cronies all to try and get them out of their final fat ASX fund raise short without huge loses.

Someone bought 12m on Friday. The question now stands : was it Lightsaber Luca or Jabba and his Lurker Cronies. Because if it wasn't the shorts... oh fooK basically. Jabba will be cross. 12m is quite a lot.

All i can say is that IMO There is more truth to this dark story than you can possibly imagine.

And for context Here's a Lurker5 tip - he actually reckons himself as the analyst:

hTTtps://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/horizonte-minerals-are-we-there-yet/ Horizonte Minerals (LSE:HZM)

Lurker5 says "my other miner on its way to production with, hopefully, the end of the tunnel for shareholders" he claims...

HZM was Utterly Body bagged this week sadly (for all holders) >>> 172p to 16p in just a few days... and 67% down (again) today.

Oh my lord - that was not good judgment Lurker5 was it. You are obviously not the talent at picking 'quality' projects and ‘great management', I see.

Suggests to me his critical talk of GGP... could be linked to Evil since they obviously work together.

But just look at the long term SP story - i had no idea: https://ibb.co/bH7TgP6 but that looks like a plethora of management failings at HZM…

A Slow Clap for Lurker5 there with his HZM pick - £8.30 to sub 0.17p (wow! one he’s followed for 10 years no less )

This is what i fight for GGP . ... Because the disinformation and disingenuous are out there. But with our BOD at GGP what was allowed to happen at Horizonte wont happen here.f

If they took short positions at 8p, wouldn't that put them approx 25% up at the moment? Somewhere in the range of £500k, for half of the 58m short?

All Depends when they added, increased or potentially partially closed out … shorts are often added incrementally. When they smell blood in the markets they increase often just at the wrong time. Like Pis chasing highs it works the other way.

We're at nearly a 3 year low. The only time they can have taken short positions and not be in profit is if they took those positions before covid.

Sounds like Simon Cawkwell to me, his nickname is Evil Knievel. Comes from the same tawdy dirty farm as Tom Winnifrith and associated rabble.

Not sure what to make of the negative post response, I hope it's not directed at me.

Ivan66 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 5:11 pm Sounds like Simon Cawkwell to me, his nickname is Evil Knievel. Comes from the same tawdy dirty farm as Tom Winnifrith and associated rabble.

Doesn’t really matter who he is.
What matters is that buying 58-60m back will be a significant problem w/o a liquidity event… I f you sell all your shares it’s often difficult to buy then back cheaper.
Works sometimes…. But playing with 58m really requires liquidity event to avoid a short squeeze.

( like a cash raise). That’s the point Futt.

Well whoever these complete toss pots are they’ve added another 14 million today!! If I’m understanding it correctly they’ve borrowed 14 million more at a price of between 5.8-6.2 which means they will then try to get the sp even lower, otherwise how else can they make any money?
I just don’t get how they think it’s going lower unless there is a big market crash and we go down temporarily but recover when (hopefully) gold prices soar…. I’m bewildered as to wtaf is going on

Hi CK
Could even be reverse psychology. Borrow 14m to scare people off buying in order to close the actual shorted stock
Best R
MFU

Hi MFU -

Interesting- well this definitely explains the BS from the shorts active on ADVFN recently.

Potentially this also accounts for the big 2.5m 2m and 7.5m trades at 6p we witnessed last Friday. Certainly Explains the SP position moving down so hard from 6.9 ish.

Fact stands: They need to buy back 73m which is loads. TBF I’m past caring now what they do to the sp. New holders are arriving all the time soaking up their sells.. This will reverse course at some point.

And fair value can be discovered.

Interesting moves last week especially on Friday. 4-5M bought in a just a couple of trades well above the market price. Be nice if that's Lurker5 and EVIL closing out at a stinky loss...

Personally, I really hope they are still short to their necks - and it was a buy on the back for that Don Durret interview or even GDXJ moving higher.

The fact is GOLD is moving north and fast now. THere's been a paradigm shift. The policy error is laid bare

This Sprott podcast explains the present moves in gold very well and is worth 20 mins : https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s ... 0631640370

It ties in with my arguments about the bond market losing faith in the FED to control the situation perfectly but also explores how the gov have been also being interfering in the bond market to try to manage the situation :

Seems to me there's this stark realisation, unfolding, that the US gov cannot really afford interest rates to go any higher whilst funding a war on two fronts ...

Domestic US Banks are struggling internally with >5% rates. Old Wall Market participants are begging for Cow bell (ie printed money).

Looks to me Fed are starting buckle under pressure. Gold is sniffing this out. Banks have universally gone long gold following the recent smash down 1815 to close out their last shorts.

As the market pushes rates higher, gold and rates should rise together (as Peter Schiff says should be happening) in anticipation of a Fed capitulation or pivot / Credit Event / Banking crisis / recession - rather than 'higher for longer'.

Add in the global south de-dollarising and China not buying the US paper anymore. Maybe Fed will have its target changed to 3 or 4%?

A Minsky moment is upon us... investors are having to totally rethink everything at higher rates.. The market is 100% sniffing weakness in the FED

For example: Their employment data interpretation is just so frigging shyte - Hedgeye suggest the reason for this is the FED doesn’t distinguish the massive US “gig economy” work force effect. That 15% of the total workforce force (running LLCs) are 'gig economy workers' and they are NOW out of work or running out of wok - but TOTALY unrecorded in employments figs; despite very high standards of education/income. This cohort is being forced to take part time jobs to cover their asses artificially lifting the employment figures.

Bar the richest 10-15% The rest - ie the 80% masses - basically have little/no money. GenZ and Millennials are mostly screwed paying rent / buying food - and retail sales pop UP - brilliant - now up coz prices are goes what flying up due to inflation ~50-65% in 3-4 years while retail sales stats are not adjusted for inflation:

Enter Mass Spending on unsecured credit cards (meeting minimum payment criteria whereby eventually they will default - as it’s unsecured credit)

If I can work that out : that they haven’t added any full time jobs for 3 months - why can’t they???

Obviously; because Powell can’t admit the inflation fight is now over - and HE lost. Market now giving him a right spanking and raising rates for him.

Gold moving higher , as bond markets crashes to lower lows. 60:40 portfolios… ? Ooof!

The US Treasury continues to loose its status as the pristine and principle safe haven asset - leaving investors with few alternative options.

And Fed Chair Powell says inflation is still too high: Duh! Oil is heading off the dial and they are powerless to control that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/powell- ... eExtension

Powells speech last week was weak and IMO basically smacked of far less clarity over guidance and policy - it's like he knows in his heart he's lying to the masses, but as a lawyer the lie is getting harder and more ridiculous to keep up.

Meanwhile Biden is presently adding one trillion $ per month to the national debt. It took 40 presidents 160 years to run up the first 1 trillion $ in debt.

And BIden - with his Inflation Explosion Act - runs up a trillion a month.

God help us. Got gold .....?!!?!

Shorts closed about 8m since going comedy 'large' up to 78m

viewtopic.php?p=4813#p4813

Now 71

Can't wait till the next Bloomberg print to find out who our US based buyer is...
I make it at least 20.5m so far and were up 35%
My bet is Newmont.

Buying categorically commenced the first trading day following NCM-NEMs scheme of arrangement vote being successful.

After hours trades :
25/10/23 5.5m (on vol 40m)
24/10/23 7.5m (vol 46.6m)
23/10/2023 4m (vol 31m)
20/10/2023 Last Friday (when it began) 3.5m after hours buys ( 12.5m vol)

Of note, massive increase in overall volume on last week:
19/10/2023 Volume 22m
18/10/2023 Volume 14m
17/10/2023 Volume 9m
16/10/2023 Volume 4m

Average volume 10m -
Sp is 35.5% up from this week's lows.

Highest price since 2nd June

Yeah right:; it's going to 5p lads. Ah well. at least it didn't hit 4p PMSL
I said more chance of £4 than 4p over on the shorter site...

In my opinion Newmont are not buying shares. I feel it’s more likely to be GDXJ. The gold price is up the last few weeks and looks to be heading to new highs in USD (already all time highs in all other currencies). GDX and GDXJ most likely seeing new cash being invested into their ETFs and that money is then invested into the companies within the ETFs.

GDXJ jumped on 19th October I think it was from 0.43% weighting to 0.52%, so that might account for something last week.

Since then, just had a slight decrease down to 0.51% on 24th October.

You can keep an eye on it here (need to ensure the website has you in the US region to get the correct numbers (top r/h corner):

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investment ... /holdings/

DipSard wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 10:42 am GDXJ jumped on 19th October I think it was from 0.43% weighting to 0.52%, so that might account for something last week.

Since then, just had a slight decrease down to 0.51% on 24th October.

You can keep an eye on it here (need to ensure the website has you in the US region to get the correct numbers (top r/h corner):

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investment ... /holdings/

As of 19th Oct on US page I had noted a 0.43 weighting and 216,396,944 shares.

Todays spreadsheet shows:

025/10/23
217,367,904
$20,325,809.65
0.54%

So I make that only a 970,960 increase in shares since 19th Oct.

Soo what's the take on this Evil guy now?

Well Butt,

My take is he's either 'out' at a decent loss; looks from Ortex like some 20m were closed early on. I guess that Could easily be him - last in first out and all.
Otherwise he's badly down and searing furious with Lurker5 / Cornforth (who he plans to feed to Pateesa the Rancor ) and probably me too, in equal measure ( if he could find me...)

My take is that our buyer is probably still in play, but happy to sit and pick off any sellers, rather than drive the price much higher than 10p for now. I know volume has pulled back but it could be they are happy to just take any thing under 10p at this stage, or whatever... So i think we see consolidation here.


This is quite interesting though... creates a tricky situation for remaining shorts - the 750k and 1m buy trades were still popping up today, albeit on much lower total volume. Creates a situation where any traders like Daveri wannabe Bond who many be hoping to get back in lower could end up simply not seeing the expected and to this point typical Aim stock pull back.

If the buyer is determined to get say 10% they will sit here for a bit, then go again thus force sellers who want back in to chase it...

IMO a lot of sharper shooting punters who are (or were) sat in the Sidelines waiting for GGP's SP turn may be looking to build new positions now so there could be competition for a fairly illiquid and tightly held stock.

I've heard that a few funds have added big time last week too - and that one has just about doubled his position in the 6s and low 7s

Looks like a pretty sticky mess for Evil now because if he was selling at 5.9p and 5.7 to get it down there they are beached.