Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥
Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:48 am
Ok big night...
News of 3 FED rate cuts next year instantly puts $50 on the price of gold and absolutely tanked the USD and 10y yield cratering the US 10 year rate right through its key tail support at 4% to 3.93 .
THIS IS A BIG F DEAL... Instantly rocketing gold to $2040 an oz within seconds of the fed notes announcing the Great Pivot.
Gold stocks and the SP500 exploded higher... in a massive rally across the seniors and some juniors. (A ralley that completely left the 7 Molten Magma Tech stocks behind..
Fresnillo, Endeavour Newmont all up 6-8%
Some absolutely Huge moves in Similar Developers and explorers too: >>>>>> and I mean HUGE.
Skeena Resources Up 18%
Seabridge up 8%
SABLE resources up 10%
I80 Gold up 10%
RedPine up 10%
Q-GOLD UP 50%
FIRST MAJESTIC UP 12%
New found gold up 7%
Global copper miners ETF up 4%
GDXJ up 8%
GDX was up as much as GDXJ which is populated by many mid to large caps (at the top end). So the seniors move first and the juniors they follow.
Fact is Gold has shown phenomenal strength against higher for longer rates, hitting all time highs just a few weeks ago.
Since then a crew of ADVFN shorters took a massive gamble dumping circa 25m borrowed GGP shares on the basis no MRE was announced on AGM day and gold had already pulled back significantly to $1970/oz, and was likely, according to 'chartists' to pull back further.
However all along Gold was sniffing the Fed Pivot....
The tide has now turned and the FED 'pivot' suggests categorically they know the economy is in deterioration mode, but worse, inflation is still elevated.
CORE inflation the key measure that the fed uses CPI ex Shelter - was actually up. (although not widely reported) ... https://ibb.co/zSDdwkG This is the Fed's own definition of "preferred measure of inflation"
Does that chart look like its heading down to 2% or IN FACT is it possibly heading UP .. ?
This means a GOLDILOCKS period for gold and its exactly what god has been sniffing . Gold should be much higher already but the higher rates and higher USD capped it in dollar price.. ( Obviously gold its as all time highs in other currencies and as been for weeks..
BUT - That situation has now changed. Fund managers globally will be increasing their exposure to gold, and to quality gold equities, due to the tail wind of falling rates, falling US dollar and slowing US economy.
The truth is, that the Fed didn't decide to drop rates becuase the inflation fight is over. Oh nope... It's becuase of a combination of factors - yes inflation is down., but at 5% the US know it cannot afford is nation's Debt burden ... when the interest payments match the defence budget something needs to change. Janet Yellen made that absolutely clear.
They are desperate to paint the picture that everything is rosy and a soft landing is dead ahead. This is becuase the money men having been screaming for 'cowbell' as certain sectors implode - commercial property/regional banks - are on the brink of total collapse... and they want their bubble back... This strategy - to keep people's peckers up, and stocks buoyant, is simply b/c Biden has an election to fight next year and they will no doubt lose, if the economy has already tanked into the global recession that was coming at 5% rates.
Thats the risk - Bidenomics was a flaccid failure... So the policy object is now to stave off recession as long as possible, at the expense of anything now - including fighting inflation - Arthur Burns anyone? They lied about health insurance costs reducing them 70% in the November print to take CPI 1 bp lowers, which in aggregate to CPI from increasing to decreasing- as if by magic. Make no mistake - everything gets fudged.
AND meanwhile, beautifully they have accidentally created the perfect storm for gold - the “Goldilocks” moment for gold.
That will take a little time to percolate through... to the wider corners of the markets and fund management industry. Meanwhile, small caps and value has been left for dead - just take a look at the Russel 2000. And hedge fund managers globally are getting sacked daily - 10 a penny. Becuase what happens next when money starts to drain out of those 7 Magma super mother of all Bubble cap Stocks...? When companies start having to guide down and reports the truth - take Oracle two days ago... smashed becuase thy had to report reality.
Negative real interest rates, high inflation ( 100% higher than 2%) and a falling US Dollar - especially if other countries keep their rates higher, relative to the US. Plus the constant nagging tail risks of a major slowing economy, and oh boy, is the US economy slowing. The GFC was about Wall street - this about Main street. There's huge crisis on Main street.
India on the other hand is performing brilliantly so it's quite specific to the US and EU. And it's all to do with Stagflation, high debt and an economy addicted to free and easy money creation. And Wall Street finally having to report reality, by guiding down.
Watch for the 10 year breaking down over the coming days... and once again reinverting the Yield Curve in the process...
In the End truth Prevails.
News of 3 FED rate cuts next year instantly puts $50 on the price of gold and absolutely tanked the USD and 10y yield cratering the US 10 year rate right through its key tail support at 4% to 3.93 .
THIS IS A BIG F DEAL... Instantly rocketing gold to $2040 an oz within seconds of the fed notes announcing the Great Pivot.
Gold stocks and the SP500 exploded higher... in a massive rally across the seniors and some juniors. (A ralley that completely left the 7 Molten Magma Tech stocks behind..
Fresnillo, Endeavour Newmont all up 6-8%
Some absolutely Huge moves in Similar Developers and explorers too: >>>>>> and I mean HUGE.
Skeena Resources Up 18%
Seabridge up 8%
SABLE resources up 10%
I80 Gold up 10%
RedPine up 10%
Q-GOLD UP 50%
FIRST MAJESTIC UP 12%
New found gold up 7%
Global copper miners ETF up 4%
GDXJ up 8%
GDX was up as much as GDXJ which is populated by many mid to large caps (at the top end). So the seniors move first and the juniors they follow.
Fact is Gold has shown phenomenal strength against higher for longer rates, hitting all time highs just a few weeks ago.
Since then a crew of ADVFN shorters took a massive gamble dumping circa 25m borrowed GGP shares on the basis no MRE was announced on AGM day and gold had already pulled back significantly to $1970/oz, and was likely, according to 'chartists' to pull back further.
However all along Gold was sniffing the Fed Pivot....
The tide has now turned and the FED 'pivot' suggests categorically they know the economy is in deterioration mode, but worse, inflation is still elevated.
CORE inflation the key measure that the fed uses CPI ex Shelter - was actually up. (although not widely reported) ... https://ibb.co/zSDdwkG This is the Fed's own definition of "preferred measure of inflation"
Does that chart look like its heading down to 2% or IN FACT is it possibly heading UP .. ?
This means a GOLDILOCKS period for gold and its exactly what god has been sniffing . Gold should be much higher already but the higher rates and higher USD capped it in dollar price.. ( Obviously gold its as all time highs in other currencies and as been for weeks..
BUT - That situation has now changed. Fund managers globally will be increasing their exposure to gold, and to quality gold equities, due to the tail wind of falling rates, falling US dollar and slowing US economy.
The truth is, that the Fed didn't decide to drop rates becuase the inflation fight is over. Oh nope... It's becuase of a combination of factors - yes inflation is down., but at 5% the US know it cannot afford is nation's Debt burden ... when the interest payments match the defence budget something needs to change. Janet Yellen made that absolutely clear.
They are desperate to paint the picture that everything is rosy and a soft landing is dead ahead. This is becuase the money men having been screaming for 'cowbell' as certain sectors implode - commercial property/regional banks - are on the brink of total collapse... and they want their bubble back... This strategy - to keep people's peckers up, and stocks buoyant, is simply b/c Biden has an election to fight next year and they will no doubt lose, if the economy has already tanked into the global recession that was coming at 5% rates.
Thats the risk - Bidenomics was a flaccid failure... So the policy object is now to stave off recession as long as possible, at the expense of anything now - including fighting inflation - Arthur Burns anyone? They lied about health insurance costs reducing them 70% in the November print to take CPI 1 bp lowers, which in aggregate to CPI from increasing to decreasing- as if by magic. Make no mistake - everything gets fudged.
AND meanwhile, beautifully they have accidentally created the perfect storm for gold - the “Goldilocks” moment for gold.
That will take a little time to percolate through... to the wider corners of the markets and fund management industry. Meanwhile, small caps and value has been left for dead - just take a look at the Russel 2000. And hedge fund managers globally are getting sacked daily - 10 a penny. Becuase what happens next when money starts to drain out of those 7 Magma super mother of all Bubble cap Stocks...? When companies start having to guide down and reports the truth - take Oracle two days ago... smashed becuase thy had to report reality.
Negative real interest rates, high inflation ( 100% higher than 2%) and a falling US Dollar - especially if other countries keep their rates higher, relative to the US. Plus the constant nagging tail risks of a major slowing economy, and oh boy, is the US economy slowing. The GFC was about Wall street - this about Main street. There's huge crisis on Main street.
India on the other hand is performing brilliantly so it's quite specific to the US and EU. And it's all to do with Stagflation, high debt and an economy addicted to free and easy money creation. And Wall Street finally having to report reality, by guiding down.
Watch for the 10 year breaking down over the coming days... and once again reinverting the Yield Curve in the process...
In the End truth Prevails.