GGPChat

Had a quick look at this company Emerald Resources and it makes a very interesting comparison to Havieron and GGP .. very interesting. IMO it makes GGP look ridiculously cheap. An I mean ridiculously

Firstly the company is valued at well over $1bn US (and $2bn AUZ) - and they produce, wait for is 100koz : Yup just 100koz.

So the money the big money is in Mr Market's 'perception' that they will be successful in growth. Compare them to say Hummingbird resources - who have a madcap of £70m - and currently 100koz production ( but when their 2nd mine comes on stream this quarter, about to become a 200koz producer ).

The Emerald Model is interesting. Leveraged growth. And broadly as follows: Okavu the main producing asset is a fairly small 1.2 moz one pit mine and deposit in Vietnam, which was acquired in in 2016. They have taken this into production, after raising $76m and gaining 60m Debt facility with Spott, and spending about $96m US on mine capex.

Their DFS was 2017 and 2018. They have no copper. They have used the cash flow from Vietnam mine (production started 2021) to explore in Australia with some success (as per Bamps below): But being a producer they are in both GDX and GDXJ with VanEck owning 7%.

Okavu is small open pit mine with a fairly high strip ratio 5.8: 1 and lowish grade at 2g/t reserve of 14MT - but key it has a low AISC of $700 to $800 USD (cheap Vietnamese Labour). It started production in September 2021 with a 7 year mine life. Unless there is a tonne of growth at this deposit , it is limited albeit with a very small open pit with low capex of $98m US - err not dissimilar to GGP's share!! - but for 100koz of production (AND note, no copper).

On expansion at OKavu its still pretty tiny compared to Hav. Some higher grades but typically very short intervals. Havieron is frankly miles better as the intervals are much bigger... Their reporting style is leaning towards shorter high grade intervals... ie Certainly 39g/t is high grade but only over 5m - They highlight 100g m holes in blue... whilst at Havieron we have many 500, 600 and even the odd 1000 gram meter holes...

So where is the $1bn worth of value - well if you look at the share structure Management didn't sell out they own 20%. the CEO ones 7% and insituations own 47%

Bamps highlighted the success at their Boundary growth project (in Australia) which appears to be adding a lot of value to the company. Now to me these projects look pretty small compared to Hav.


There is some Interesting this drilling from Emerald flagged by bamps. The Emerald Share price has taken off and just hasn't looked back - no Lassonde curve anyhow - where the company, since 2020, has seen huge gains 1000% gains from covid lows - now valued at over $1bn with no significant pull backs.

So Why? = Obviously they have 100% of these new projects - the Boundary and Neptune are both near surface deposits with some high grade ( but the fact is they are just absolutely no where near the scale of Havieron )

So, for example Boundary, is broadly 200m x 200m x 550m which at SG of 2.7 is roughly a volume of 54Mt of Rock (not Ore which will be a lot less maybe 30mt at sub 2.3g/t) and probably way less that this is terms of final reserves/resources ore. I think it can be estimated at less than 1.7g/t once scaled up to 30mt Boundary kind of tapers in shape and the waste/strip ratios could be high. Neptune and Stirling are both much smaller again. And earlier JORC for the deposit exists for just 3mt and just 270koz of gold. That was the starting point - its tiny.

We have around 10x this net to GGP alone, at Haviron, based on 30% of 8,4Moz. And we know that's only a small fraction of the entire deposit which requires a lot more drilling. You could argue Boundary gets bigger ... but is it gong to 20x bigger - I doubt that.

So there you have it : GGP has circa 2.52 Moz reserve (minimum) for $125m capex. Plus the huge growth opportunity leveraging off existing infrastructure valued at $400m

Vs Emerald which is producing a 1moz reserve at 1.9g/t plus a possible 1.6moz moz in the discovery curve... and is yet is valued at over US $1bn

Its when you think about that you realise that once this DFS situation is sorted, Greatland is heading to the 20p plus mark.

Thanks Hydrogen….and BAMPS for this reassurance! Shaun in his interview today was excited about EG and cannot wait for the assay results. Bet they come about Valentines Day a week before Newmont’s report. Scottie

Hi Scottie
I recall he was also ultra excited about Scally and Juri and Rio land and so far nothing commercial
Let's hope this one makes all the exploration of the last 3 years worthwhile!!

Everything to the SW of Ernest Giles has been explored, drilled or producing.
EG hasn’t really been explored , I think we put in 21 holes in a Wild cat drilling exercise and the 2 best ones are what were followed up before Xmas.
All these other greenstone belt areas are finding dykes, veins, lodes.
The lodes seem to be producing the higher grades and volumes.
At EG they tested before Xmas possible sites of 2 structures.
I hope they find higher grade zones than before but the main idea is to find those structures, veins and possible lodes.
It looks extremely exciting.
Each zone will not produce the quantities seen at Havieron it’s more likely finding lots of smaller 1moz “camps”.
At Jundee it’s not 1 big mine there’s lots, Thunderbox has 3 boxcuts, there’s also 2x 3m ton per year processing plants.
Gruyere has another 3m ton processing plant.
EMR are still drilling but it’s been peppered like a pin cushion.

That’s Gruyere processing plant
Plus EMR licence showing the drilling

Regis Resources

I think this is the Gruyere mine

Rosie nickel and copper deposit is on same greenstone as Regis.
Shown on Inventum 3D