Another record high in gold (nominally)
Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:16 am
Well I said it was coming and here it is - day in day out - of new 52 week highs and basil 3 in full swing. And virtually nobody in mainstream media really even talking about this massive bull rally charge in the global macroeconomic health barometer. 
So does this mean there’s a problem? Is something about to break …?
Honestly!?! - it Depends who you listen to, obviously. It could be as simple as the inflation adjusted gold price of $2500-$2700 usd being realised.
Or, alternatively, big money knows the banking system is compromised or worse (about to blow up). Interest rates are a lynchpin: The 10Y treasury note is rising pretty swiftly again 4.7% presently (3.6% ish being the recent low) . It’s looking quite punchy again at the top end of the risk range and mathematically bullish trade and trend.
Crude oil is 27% up... CPI on Wednesday could come in low, and reverse it. But a hot print will surely push rates higher and chance of the first cut further out - so higher for longer. That’s bad news for banks. And by extension nominally bad for gold.
If CPI comes in even warm again and gold goes up again on Wednesday then I think it’s fair to say either 1) new paradigm or 2) something is going badly wrong in the financial system or banking plumbing. It’s possible the gold trade algorithms have been massively reprogrammed to behave totally differently..
But like Covid, when gold started running early 2019 that time it was almost a year later that boom - disaster struck.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
This is a fascinating chart - possibly one of the best for seeing where we are relative to other periods.
It’s the inflation adjusted gold chart and it’s definitely worth playing with to compare how gold behaves during the historical peaks in 1980 and 2010/11 and today..
From this
inflation adjusted gold chart we’re looking to be approaching ATHs , so that’s probably, on balance, a bad sign - albeit we’re not yet at the early 80s peak and tbf if you look closely we’re not event above the 2020 peak….
This explains why the gold stocks have been a little slow to move… keep an eye on this chart ..
I reckon anything above $2411 puts us into clear blue sky all time high breakout territory
Honestly!?! - it Depends who you listen to, obviously. It could be as simple as the inflation adjusted gold price of $2500-$2700 usd being realised.
Or, alternatively, big money knows the banking system is compromised or worse (about to blow up). Interest rates are a lynchpin: The 10Y treasury note is rising pretty swiftly again 4.7% presently (3.6% ish being the recent low) . It’s looking quite punchy again at the top end of the risk range and mathematically bullish trade and trend.
Crude oil is 27% up... CPI on Wednesday could come in low, and reverse it. But a hot print will surely push rates higher and chance of the first cut further out - so higher for longer. That’s bad news for banks. And by extension nominally bad for gold.
If CPI comes in even warm again and gold goes up again on Wednesday then I think it’s fair to say either 1) new paradigm or 2) something is going badly wrong in the financial system or banking plumbing. It’s possible the gold trade algorithms have been massively reprogrammed to behave totally differently..
But like Covid, when gold started running early 2019 that time it was almost a year later that boom - disaster struck.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
This is a fascinating chart - possibly one of the best for seeing where we are relative to other periods.
It’s the inflation adjusted gold chart and it’s definitely worth playing with to compare how gold behaves during the historical peaks in 1980 and 2010/11 and today..
From this
inflation adjusted gold chart we’re looking to be approaching ATHs , so that’s probably, on balance, a bad sign - albeit we’re not yet at the early 80s peak and tbf if you look closely we’re not event above the 2020 peak….This explains why the gold stocks have been a little slow to move… keep an eye on this chart ..
I reckon anything above $2411 puts us into clear blue sky all time high breakout territory