Development cost Curve
Posted: Thu Jun 27, 2024 11:28 am
This Skeena Resources article from Seeking Alpha, published a few months ago is relevant to GGP. I watch Skeena as its a similar comparison to Greatland in many respects: Brownfield, circa 4moz resource, 3.3 million reserve and similar grade.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/466160 ... gher-capex
In this article, the author produces as development cost curve of ounces vs Capex for global gold developers.. I have annotated for Havieron's PFS Stage 1 (2mt at 160kox) vs what Shaun has suggested for the DFS - 3MT for 300-350 Koz (albeit he's implied maybe up to 450 koz not added or maybe thats 450 Equivalent ie with the copper )
Wow What a difference it makes ... ? You can NCMs games clear as day
3mt for 325koz (I aded a line to include a range, as we dont know exactly how much CAPX is required to take us up to 3mt ) but still that puts right out the right side of the cost curve, with the very best development assets globally - And just look where Degrey sits. They have so much cash to raise its unreal.
If Skeena can get financed without much dilution by Orion (oops over at Bushveld) then I'm sure as dam it Shaun can . Just look what percentage of the mine capex is probably already spent: Plus there was a decent contingency built in.
Skeena Finanace breakdown. Of note their Capex was $750m (NOW raised) which is almost 1.5x their mcap $450m: The financing package includes four parts:
$137 million equity investment priced at a premium to Skeena’s five-day volume weighted average share price.
$273 million gold stream with option to buy back up to two-thirds for a 12-month period after commercial production begins.
$478 million capital committed and available from a senior secured loan with 1% standby fee and no break fee.
$137 million cost over-run facility in the form of an additional gold stream subject to the same standby terms as the loan.
(further Notice the tiny dilution was at a premium but they used royalties with buy back options )
Our capex at $381m is a fraction of theirs... and what proportion has already been spent...? Should get interesting very soon.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/466160 ... gher-capex
In this article, the author produces as development cost curve of ounces vs Capex for global gold developers.. I have annotated for Havieron's PFS Stage 1 (2mt at 160kox) vs what Shaun has suggested for the DFS - 3MT for 300-350 Koz (albeit he's implied maybe up to 450 koz not added or maybe thats 450 Equivalent ie with the copper )
Wow What a difference it makes ... ? You can NCMs games clear as day
3mt for 325koz (I aded a line to include a range, as we dont know exactly how much CAPX is required to take us up to 3mt ) but still that puts right out the right side of the cost curve, with the very best development assets globally - And just look where Degrey sits. They have so much cash to raise its unreal.
If Skeena can get financed without much dilution by Orion (oops over at Bushveld) then I'm sure as dam it Shaun can . Just look what percentage of the mine capex is probably already spent: Plus there was a decent contingency built in.
Skeena Finanace breakdown. Of note their Capex was $750m (NOW raised) which is almost 1.5x their mcap $450m: The financing package includes four parts:
$137 million equity investment priced at a premium to Skeena’s five-day volume weighted average share price.
$273 million gold stream with option to buy back up to two-thirds for a 12-month period after commercial production begins.
$478 million capital committed and available from a senior secured loan with 1% standby fee and no break fee.
$137 million cost over-run facility in the form of an additional gold stream subject to the same standby terms as the loan.
(further Notice the tiny dilution was at a premium but they used royalties with buy back options )