GGPChat

Rife Rumours seem to be swirling the corridors of Perth - so news this week it seems. Fingers xd.

Remember, as soon as we get 100% SD IMO takes enormous pleasure in dropping a fat DFS into the market. It’s up to him now to prove up his “dripping roast” comments on paper - naturally I expect a grin at least 18feet wide… and said report to land within circa 10 days.

His new found swagger will certainly be amusing to observe . But the celebrations will be short lived as the hard work really begins.

Even the nay sayers could be utterly dumfounded.

It is then!

Good god , we deserve it - and I’ve never had a doubt in my mind for hanging in there…despite this markets obvious misunderstanding of Hav )

I’m constantly surprised at the capacity of the self appointed non miners over on LSE to doubt that Havieron cannot produce >3mt / annum. Reliable people close to the matter suggest to me it’s simple a matter of “when” not if , so they are either lying or it’s going to be a 6mt mine.

How ironic that newcrest openly say Telfer train 2 is being plumbed up to take 6mt per annum from Havieron.
$3000 gold target firmly locked in for this year. WTF does that do to the Havieon economics…?

I hope you’re right Hydro!! Been a long 3 years for me.

You’ve never struck me as the EmptyBoots type Hydro, so for you to stick your neck (reputation) out like this, must mean you have every confidence your sources are right. It’s been a long wait for us all so I very much hope you are right. Good luck to us all.

https://au.linkedin.com/in/quentin-broadbent

https://au.linkedin.com/in/laura-am-phillips

https://au.linkedin.com/in/gabriel-franklyn-430b5aa9

https://au.linkedin.com/in/jarrad-donald-01aa472a

Hydrogen wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 7:01 pm How ironic that newcrest openly say Telfer train 2 is being plumbed up to take 6mt per annum from Havieron.

May I respectfully ask where this came from?

Certainly nothing at all has been done as yet to separate train 1 from train 2, if they want them separate they will need a whole new CCD and CIL circuit, as well as copper thickener and larox plant, and a gold room, among other things.

Or if it all ends up with same owner, there’s no need to separate it, and no modifications required other than building a facility to dump Hav’s dirt onto the COS over the CV8 feeders.

Hopefully it’s the latter, look forward to announcement.

Hi Shiny

To be precise, the “split 6mt train” point was old information from may 2021 when Newcrest (not Newmont) were still contemplating being in a JV with Greatland.

I was talking in email to a woman called Sophie Spartalis at BOFA who was at the time presenting regularly with Sandeep. She had direct access to technical team and information and a direct line to Sandeep.

Presumably if you say it hasn't happened then it hasn’t - but that was the plan, to meet the potential difference in metallurgy between the two ores, as it seemed to my met friends unlikely to be able to blend High grade Hav with Telfer’s material , given the existing plant head grade was set to 0.9g/t with a -/+ 20% tolerance.

Does that follow?

Just googled her and she’s head of investor relations at Northern Star now…

https://www.linkedin.com/in/sophie-spar ... bdomain=au

Yep certainly back then efforts were made to allocate a whole slab of land for construction of a whole new CCD for train 2, and the electrical engineers were certainly in the midst of a preliminary investigation regarding the existing power station having sufficient excess capacity to run it all in the height of summer. I’d be surprised if it couldn’t, they can run all 3 crushers and the 4 mills from just 2 GTs in winter, the 3rd being needed in summer when the air is thinner with less oxygen in a given volume.

You’re right in that a circuit has to be perfectly set up for a given head grade, an unexpected hit of higher grade can cause a lot of gold to be lost to the tails dam.

Currently they constantly blend the underground higher grade dirt with the dirt from the pits to achieve the grade they set train 1 for, and train 2 is set for lower grade material just from surface.


Oh….. and Telfer’s staff have been told to sit tight, and that an announcement will be made to the Australian stock exchange (ASX) within the next two weeks….

Very interesting response that Shiny!

Very interesting response that Shiny!

We had always assumed both trains had their own gold circuits. But if not that suggests to me categorically NCM always intended both trains to go into a common circuit once Hav was in production.

Thus by extension- if there was no intention to produce gold from a dedicated Havieron train then that suggests to me there was no absolutely intention for GGP to exist …

Very revealing!! I was told by friends in the industry back in October 2021 that Newcrest would take out ggp within the year.

Nobody could have predicted quite how they planned to do it - but that it sounds like that decision was made between May and September 2021…

And losing that 5% pretty much blew up their strategy! Just shows what a total bloody legend Shaun Day has proven to be for PIs.

And don't forget Starbright - BOFA have already openly revealed that Newmont will take a mix of cash and (GGP) paper for Telfer/Hav.

I categorically think that suggests they want and require Shaun to be successful - don't you?

BOFA said it Pepsie - here:

download/file.php?id=2273&mode=view

https://www.usfunds.com/resource/major- ... -industry/

Shinybits wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 11:39 pm ….. and Telfer’s staff have been told to sit tight, and that an announcement will be made to the Australian stock exchange (ASX) within the next two weeks….

Thank's Shinybits for sharing your detailed knowledge of the Telfer / Hav situation. Would you care to share any of your mining industry history? Are the comments to Telfer staff in the public domain? Are you in Aus or UK?

Let's hope the two weeks is for real. It's been a long wait so far this year.

I am most interested in what Shaun Day has to say.

The problem has always been that Shaun couldn't really speak to the full truth, or say what he believed or thought of Havieron and what he thought it was capable of producing 'on the record' because, obviously such comments would fly so severely in the face of existing published Newcrest documentation, and that would totally undermine his position of authority and create severe uncertainty and massive problems politically additionally.

Essentially IMO almost everything Shaun said, was said with significant nuance. And it was only when it was forced out of him - ie that he had no choice, but to confirm things publicly (such as the presence of potentially economic concentrations of nickel in the Eastern Breccia at Depth) that he was able to confirm or deny some of this speculation.

There is a reason that PhDs are being written on the Genesis of Havieron.

Ultimately, as the Money of Mine guys quite rightly observed, being the non-controlling junior partner in a JV such as Havieron can have very negative consequences , if your partner isn't willing to play fair or act in good faith.

Sadly, that is exactly the position we found ourselves in. Again, not one that Shaun could ever discuss publicly, as it would obviously hurt the share price.

Shaun said 'GGP is the Hare and Newcrest is the wolf'. And 'Its only a matter of time.. before they eat us'. That said - No-one predicted the curved ball of Newmont.

This is why the future is so bright... People in the know can see that Havieron is massive - 8.4moz and counting - but something doesn't make sense given NCM reports. Unless that is, one appreciates the gamesmanship that has been undertaken to this point.

Finally, truth can prevail.

I certainly don't think Wyloo invested £38m (US $50m ) into GGP for their share (8.5%) of 30% of 8.4moz? Or In other words: just 214 200 oz (that's circa US $43m worth of gold after the cost of production) - do you?

Hey Hydrogen

As you know (I hope), I respect your posts and the information you bring to the table.

But there is always a but, isn't there.

I'm excited to think that positive news is incoming but it was always going to take some considerable time.

My concern is that your 'source' for the current timeframe re release of news is the same source that said, with a huge degree of confidence, that Newmont would never, ever, ever, not in a million years, give up Havieron.

It's my only concern - I've thought for, Jesus, going on 12 months or more that we'd get it all. But why now? I have no doubt it's coming but why might your 'source' be right this time when he / she was so so wrong last time. - spectacularly wrong.

Ultimately it makes not a jot of difference - I'm just interested whether your source is the 'Money of Mine' guys or someone with slightly more credibility?

Respect anyway - we're all here for the same reason

Hi Stebol,

To be clear, no it is not -- obviously I have no specific information or source on timings of news releases - but I've just noticed a big uptick in 'chatter' moving around well connected circles to suggest to me it feels like news is now imminent - - and that was the wording of my post whether this week / next week / sometime very soon is superfluous. The fact is, it doesn't really matter the date does it? I think I recall Newcrest or GGP themselves floated September at some point regardless.

My understanding is its what happens next, after the deal is announced, that matters most. And yes The Money of Mine guys are IMO pretty well connected IMO, so personally I would go with them on this occasion. There was also an odd slightly unwarranted sell off last week coincident with major ups days in markets ands gold - so that could be a hint too.

I think the point I was trying to make more was that once the shackles are off, I am expecting a major sea change in the scope and type of news flow.

You are quite right to mention the other situation with Newmont holding on to Havieron. But it is what it is. if you stick your neck out you are liable to getting things wrong - I guess sometimes the facts just change. I was told they wouldn't be selling by someone who moves in those circles and they were dead wrong. They have been 100% spot on about other critical things (like the attempted NCM smash and grab buy out over the 5%) - so I don't fret about it.

It's fair to say also that most people in the industry who understood Havieron were equally surprised they chose to let it go . But that said I think Shaun's strategic early work may have been influential in persuading them to sell (he obviously made clear he was a serious and credible buyer from the outset). I mean He's been talking about 'consolidating the Patterson' since day 1 at GGP... ( - which TBF I thought was unlikely at the time) I was told Winu was too small for Rio a few years ago and they only just put it up for sale - sometimes the timescales on these events just stiffs you too.

Spondy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 11:22 am Thank's Shinybits for sharing your detailed knowledge of the Telfer / Hav situation. Would you care to share any of your mining industry history? Are the comments to Telfer staff in the public domain? Are you in Aus or UK?

Let's hope the two weeks is for real. It's been a long wait so far this year.

I’m in Australia, and have worked for many years in both Iron, and Gold environments.
For the last 12 months Newmont staff at Telfer have heard and spread, amongst themselves, a number of rumours, mostly baseless and doom and gloom, I’ve heard a great many but have ignored them by and large as the vast majority just have no foundation in reality. That’s being polite, there are actors in all facets of life who, for their own nefarious amusement, will spread ridiculous stories to see how far they get. For this reason, I have not posted anything here that I could not apportion at least some credibility, notwithstanding the amusement value of some of them.

Hydrogen wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:15 am Very interesting response that Shiny!

We had always assumed both trains had their own gold circuits. But if not that suggests to me categorically NCM always intended both trains to go into a common circuit once Hav was in production.

Yes mate they’re separate up to a point, but beyond that I’m not sure that anyone who is not familiar with the processing requirements could fully appreciate what a huge undertaking it would be to essentially separate Telfer in to two completely independent trains.

It would cost probably in the hundreds of millions to duplicate the parts needed to keep it completely separate so better off under one owner I would think?

@Shinybits, thanks for you reply. For me, your industry experience and location put you right at the top of the credibility scale.

I particularly like the comment regarding your sentimental attachment to the 'sample container of the very first dirt to be crushed and come off the stacker'.

Hopefully one day I will look at my Havieron 1oz bar, Britannia or sovereign in the same way.

The rumours just seem to keep coming...