GGPChat

... Some say we'll see you, and first 'Greatland' gold, next Tuesday



Here's an old quote from Day in October 2021 - before the unimaginable was finally harpooned:

“But having been in bigger companies for most of my career… I would rather pay more for something of a more proven outcome… and I think that’s where Newcrest sit today… I think there is a high degree of likelihood that at some stage Newcrest is going to take us out. There is risk asymmetry in our share price.. You know …. On one hand if we are unsuccessful in communicating the narrative around Havieron and it’s growth profile, at some point we just become, you know, this amazing value proposition for which Newcrest pay a premium to close us out and our job and the board’s job is to try and get that premium to 45 or 50% or whatever a number we can achieve. The alternative is presumably that we have theoretically unlimited upside in the share price by taking Havieron to its full potential and understanding and adding to that equation…”. Shaun Day October 2021


Of note in the most recent Sunday Roast was this other SD nugget
(apart from him dropping that there's actually 550koz or $600m+ FCF at surface at Telfer ) :

"Chinese group Zijin who just bought the other Newmont asset Aykem in Ghana for a US$1billion deal. Zijin paid 1.46x PNAV however Greatland just bought Hav-Telfer for 0.26 x PNAV or just 1/6th the price nav ratio paid in the market".

I mean WOWZERs - Just Let that Sink in. Our deal was 1/6th the cost per ounce in the ground vs what Zijin paid. ....

A massive strategic operational move executed ... I can reveal how and why.. Recall that October22 Melbourne dinner with Day and Biswaz? Well, joining the dots... The GGP deal to buy Telfer was probably penned with Sandeep, back in late 2022 at that dinner after the failed 5% debacle, but after he was sacked Newcrest let it fall away... Sherry Duhe then tried to revive the deal as a defence against the Newmont bid - and you know what Shaun did?

He told her to 'do one'

Because he knew he could drive a far better far superior deal direct with Newmont.

You have to hand it to him... Total Genius.

“Unlimited Upside” would appear to be dead ahead

Oooh if you can't tell, I'm so excited... But then obviously I would be: ding ding,

Good un H2, just wish it had happened 2 years ago, As a LTH aged 78 with a pitiful pension abused by Gordon Brown IE Equitable fiasco i have been dipping into my also pitiful portfolio to make ends meet and GGP is the main component of said portfolio, but anyway in for a penny in for a "Pound" very soon i hope so i can spread it around my families before i pop off. See Liebor are at it again going after pensions, when will people learn. DM

Yeah, Droverman - I totally appreciate it's been a painful rollercoaster ride holding this stock through the highs and the lows:

But the evidence suggests we could've been taken out at any point and you were either in or out, at that point :


The money of mine boys 'word on the decline' commentary came up with this today, which pretty much highlights and categorically suggests a lot has been going on that we do not know about.

I've put quite a lot of credence on these guys intel: They're not usually wrong. But it's as they say - Probably nothing - just Northern Star or Endeavour or whatever.... considering a friendly takeover. as you do.

Very BULLISH IMO >>>

Without the ROLR agreement, we would have been screwed. No doubt about it. Shaun said at the TH it was about the only decent thing written into the contract. But it was very, fortunate for us, as it was designed to favour Newcrest in a takeover situation. Shaun and Co turned the tables. Shaun said there may have been interest (competition) but no one bothered to make an offer because of the ROLR.

You could argue the final sequencing and timing of all of this couldn't be more spectacular for Greatland's first gold...

Gold is within 8% of my $3000 stage 1 target. IMO That puts GGP's NPV of the new 5-6mt ( TBC?) DFS well into the multi-3-4-5 $billions US$ territory.

Sprott recently estimated NPV5 of Havieron (alone) on 100% basis was AUD $5bn.

BUT I just genuinely wonder, where that puts GGP now - with 100% of Telfer, and a further say 3-5-8 years of mine life: from the massive West Dome Deeps? Not to mention just How much existing 'marginal' at $1700 gold surface open pit Telfer material is now HUGELY profitable

Telfer is a massive very hungry mill and while a barely profitable basket case at 1500 gold it NOW an absolutely monster cash cow at $3000.

Market is 100% asleep at the wheel on this one of that I am certain. Large low grade deposits into a huge mill in a high gold price environment equals Torque. Serious torque to the gold pice and cash generation

IMO Timing of this Hav Telfer deal by SD couldn't have been better.

25p minimum IMO

And quite probably 35-40-50p over time, if this ultra high gold price regime pans out to the $3-5000 area which is not that far away now.

The Q1 figures could be a catalyst. Once the true value of the purchase is understood, then we're off.

Another day, another all-time high for Gold … and this is happening despite Dollar Up, Rates Up! That’s how obvious #Quad3 U.S. Stagflation is to the currency that is Gold. Our Precious Metals and Gold Mining (GDX) Longs #like with Silver (SLV) busting a big move to the upside on Friday to close +4.7% on the week – both it and our Long Platinum (PPLT) positions are up again this morning.

Interestingly gold just broke its long term inflation adjusted high, Thats a big deal.