GGPChat

EVERYONE READING THIS needs to take a long quiet hard look at Antipa's 3mt Minyari Donme scoping study published today : I haven't had chance to read it in detail yet but span through it to look briefly at the Capex and at the Hav comps:

This Scoping Study provides for a 3mt 1.5g/t outcome with a WHOPPING 91% IRR (at current gold prices....). This just categorically demonstrates how much of a total hatchet job Newcrest's PFS was.

Even if they are 35% out/wrong (...the figs have a +/- 35% variance attached) this totally kicks the NCM Havieron PFS into touch. Given our paltry 16% IRR. (yet we are 2x the grade and 6-7x the size


hTTps://data-api.marketindex.com.au/api ... S40My4wLjA.

ALSO of note: Minyari Capex was $276m AUDso circa $160m US FOR A 10 YEAR MINE LIFE of 3mt PA for 1.5moz production


Havieron will absolutely absolutely BLOW THE DOORS OFF by comparison. Given we are twice the grade, 6x the size and 6-70%% already built - we don't need to spend $92m++ on a processing facility. And hilariously, they are getting the entire underground mine for $45m.

GGP won't even need to spend a fraction of the Capex that Antipa needs to spend, on a size or scale RELATIVE BASIS.

Plus we have $300m-400m free cash flow this year.

hTTps://ibb.co/6tjQ60V
hTTps://ibb.co/D5KtbZ8
hTTps://ibb.co/q1bhTLZ

Now , they may be juicing their figures a bit to garner attention, but there's only so much and so far you can go w/o losing all market credibility... and there SP is up a lot so the market seems to be pricing the opportunity

Stuff like this just puts a wry smile on my fat face.

Put another way ... according to the NCM PFS

GGP needed to spend $390m USD : To get a 2.8km decline, a 2mt PA underground mine, a haul road, and some power lines and some surface infrastructure including some sheds and evaporated ponds .

HOWEVER according to their new Scoping study:

Antipa needs to spend $182m USD: To get An open pit mine (with not a great strip ratio), a new dedicated mine camp, large new access roads, a large ($92m) 3mt PA processing facility, a new mining fleet, a decline, and an underground mine ALL mining a deposit that's half the grade and 1/5th to 1/6th of the scale. Noit to mention that its a virgin ground site so the significant cost of all the relevant precessing facility and mining permits and studies.

Can you see my HUGE frustration?

The NCM PFS, when directly compared to relevant others, was simply a poisoned chalice designed to kill off Greatland .

Its my belief that the entire market is still totally bamboozled by Havieron and Greatland and the disinformation published by Necrest. This sequence of events is why the SP is still so low. It's my belief that the new DFS will probably show significant cost revisions in our favour (even despite inflation of 30%) ie we get a 6mt Mine of 500m rather than a 2mt mine foo $400m - something oft that order. It's my view that every dollar spent on The Real Havieron will go a lot further, probably 1.5 to 2x further than it did under Newcrest, because their objective was a to spend so much much money it would bankrupt GGP.

It's been a difficult 24 months due to all this. It such a relief that Shaun can actually really deliver now... Maybe ALSO, thats why Newcrest/Nemont just booked $100s of millions of losses on the sale of Telfer / Havieron?

Maybe, someone just decided to put ALL these wrongs right? I still hear that sharp intake of breath whenever the money of mine guys mention the Telfer Havieron deal ... - nobody "in the mining know" looking from the outside, can quite believe it.

I see Newmont totally missed their earnings yesterday - the stock was butchered 15% in late trading... rough justice hey for a $66bn company?

I rarely do but I'm going to tonight because I've had a wee drink and and am feeling a bit pissy.

Don't get me wrong - I love Hydrogens 'News of the World' posts and always have done but it's surely not necessary to SHOUT all the time about the MASSIVE potential. Gold price might well be going STRATOSPHERIC and that would indeed be BRILLIANT for GGP but surely everyone here knows this already?

It's all well and good having sources but sometimes common sense works just as well.

Your 'sources' mate, said there was no way on earth that Newmont would ditch Havieron. Not ever - no way - hell would freeze over before that happened.

I pointed out, gosh, what feels like years ago, that the AISC for Telfer was far too high for Newmont and that they'd ditch it. From memory, nobody agreed - perhaps because I didn't stress enough how SHITE it was for Newmont and that they had bigger fish to fry.

It's moot now, of course. The real journey has just begun.

Keep posting FFS but maybe, on the odd occasion, just have a proper think about what your 'sources' are telling you. They have been shockingly wrong before now.

As ever, best regards - I do believe we are finally on the cusp.......

Love and cucumber sandwiches to all

Hi Stebol…

TBF I was feeling pretty damn shouty. Apologies if it came across crass. I do just get really pissed about it. The discredit attacks continue daily over on ADVFN and so it gets a bit combative in tone.

The problem we have all had was there was so little truth to come out of owning Havieron, since early 2021. Everything, after the first 12 months or so, has become quite distorted by NCM to serve their nefarious purpose. The JpM short and distort. The duster PFS, the 5% battle, the no MRE updates, the decline debacle… the massive spend on mega deep drilling that served little or no purpose, etc

Consequently, such a useful ‘comparison’ economic study as this, in the identical location, mining the same type of gold/copper, at comparable grade… that are so vastly superior to our own PFS study showing a 91% IRR (at current gold price) thus totally vindicating your strongly and openly held viewpoint drew my attention.

A view I and others have fought for tooth and nail, and battled to express coherently for months and years against both trolls and harsh personal critics, but at the same time your analysis is was consistently mired and undermined by a cloud of deception and distortion embedded by our very own JV partner - guess it just touched a nerve for me.

I’ve read maybe 20-30 comparable economic studies on gold and copper projects to try to better understand what to expect from a genuine Havieron DFS. My friends and network of ggp contacts are excellent (on the whole). But yes, they got that bit totally wrong it seems … probably won’t be the first nor the last. I wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t feel it was genuine and credible . But as well as dealing with deception, there can also be narrative at spin at the highest levels as well as on these boards.

Quite frankly I’m not sure what you want me to say about it? I just try and say it how it is. How I see it, and interpret and connect what I think it means, because when you have 1/4 million quid at stake, it’s kinda important to be both honest with yourself and right.

The fact is we don’t really know why Newmont walked away do we? But that said, they didn’t go far. They are NOW our biggest shareholder. So maybe there’s an even bigger pivot coming? Who knows...

But as you say; the journey has really only now just begun.

More to the point Stebol, what were you drinking? I feel as though I could do with a bit of that occasionally.

The cucumber sandwiches were lovely.

Interestingly - I just noticed if you turn Antipa's 91% IRR return back to front and upside down - and give your head a wobble - you almost get Newcrest's 16% PFS IRR for Havieron...