Hi Zoros
Sprott haven’t mentioned 15.2m oz or 65p
Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Hi bamps,
Didn’t mean the last post to come across obtusely!
I’m simply suggesting that hydrogen calcs are guesswork, that’s all.
There’s much to come anyway so by the time someone suggests something , it’s out of date next day!
Best
Z
Didn’t mean the last post to come across obtusely!
I’m simply suggesting that hydrogen calcs are guesswork, that’s all.
There’s much to come anyway so by the time someone suggests something , it’s out of date next day!
Best
Z
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Thanks Bamps.
Zoros, you seem to comprehensively miss the purpose and the point. ( as you did with Callum's holding recently... I'm never quite sure if this is deliberate...?)
What of / about the AISC...? As Bamps correctly observed : I described 'revenue' not 'income' clearly in my estimate example... Come on fella, I thought you were a businessman
..??????
TBF It's certainly naive (and possibly stupid) for investors like us to try to put cold hard figures, on a future mine plan at Havieron, when obviously there is very little data so far on the economics of a bulk underground operation.
And I didn't try to bull Poop the readers... I simply drew on a real world example, as a close and viable comparison.
I also used the word 'Estimate' in the Subject line.
claiming a specific cashflow model was certainly not the purpose of my post. For the avoidance of doubt, The post was designed to dispel various myths and FUD (created by the likes of Biggels and Not invested James et al on the other site ) who have argued that Bulk operation Capex could somehow bankrupt GGP ro that Havieron is somehow barely viable. ,
The purpose of my post was to add balance to the conversation, backed with a specific example, about future costs associated with the development of a bulk underground operation. I see the construction ad adoption of bulk haul shaft systems - something i have advocated for 18months to 2 years BTW ,as it was genuinely recommenced by my mining operations contact - as now being FULLY supported by Shaun Day our Managing Director for the first time ( as of just last week).
This example, I think, that is testament to the validity of the view points I share (which are usually pretty well founded and from rather well placed real world sources). What are the sources to your speculations and musings? Do you personally have relationships with many Metallurgists, Mining Engineers or Economic Geologist?
So to Sprott: IMO Sprott have seriously over egged the costs base ( when compared to what Oz minerals have achieved)
For example Spott allocate Aus $200m or US $100m for an underground conveyor decline system. That seems absolutely mental, frankly unless it includes significant other unspecified works (?).
My understanding is an underground vehicle decline would cost about US $20-30m (and maybe $40m in the case of havieron's poor ground) to build. This costing comes from an early Hannam report ( and that fact that that stage 1 mine at Oz minerals cost $600m all in)
Therefore I cannot see the conveyor costing more than another $10-15m and should be achievable for circa half the cost that Spott have indicated.
Look again at the Carapateena Costs. Consider closely the examples I have furnished..... This is an old Telegram Post I made 19/9/21; :
" What? $1.5bn build [net to GGP] costs my arse .? !!!! So Not invested James is saying on LSE minimum costs for Havieron Is $1.5bn from H&P. I haven’t checked It.. But i have looked at the costs for Carrapateena the best obvious comparison to HAV I can find… for AUS $915m they got a 435m deep duel declines, conveyor, a Sub level cave workings, the large processing plant, an airport, a new virgin 55km access road, accommodation village, and power station all for $650m rising to $916…. And the best part… that’s AUD yes oz Dollars not US. At the time
Check the PFS cost summary : https://www.openbriefing.com/AsxDownloa ... 799197.pdf
Sub level cave PFS full costs on Page 1 .. TOTAL COST capex of AUS$980 million "including contingency" ( so that's about US$500m ) And al this adds up give we have $370m build costs which include the road, decline, underground workings, and all related u/g crushing equipment and power utility /infrastructure...
Oz minerals got two declines built in the first wave of construction. IMO There is now way Oz minerals conveyor decline cost $200m (ie 20% of the total build out costs) given everything else they achieved for $900m AUS ... Further they did not go bankrupt...
THE difference between you and I Zoros is you may say 'miles out' .... from your corner shop armchair. But that's easy...
I say exactly how many miles out ( and which direction and why..). All backed up by real world examples.
Don't mean to get personal either but your Z logo is rather irritating too - ( it reminds me a lot of present Russian war insignia ).
Zoros, you seem to comprehensively miss the purpose and the point. ( as you did with Callum's holding recently... I'm never quite sure if this is deliberate...?)
What of / about the AISC...? As Bamps correctly observed : I described 'revenue' not 'income' clearly in my estimate example... Come on fella, I thought you were a businessman
..??????TBF It's certainly naive (and possibly stupid) for investors like us to try to put cold hard figures, on a future mine plan at Havieron, when obviously there is very little data so far on the economics of a bulk underground operation.
And I didn't try to bull Poop the readers... I simply drew on a real world example, as a close and viable comparison.
I also used the word 'Estimate' in the Subject line.
claiming a specific cashflow model was certainly not the purpose of my post. For the avoidance of doubt, The post was designed to dispel various myths and FUD (created by the likes of Biggels and Not invested James et al on the other site ) who have argued that Bulk operation Capex could somehow bankrupt GGP ro that Havieron is somehow barely viable. ,
The purpose of my post was to add balance to the conversation, backed with a specific example, about future costs associated with the development of a bulk underground operation. I see the construction ad adoption of bulk haul shaft systems - something i have advocated for 18months to 2 years BTW ,as it was genuinely recommenced by my mining operations contact - as now being FULLY supported by Shaun Day our Managing Director for the first time ( as of just last week).
This example, I think, that is testament to the validity of the view points I share (which are usually pretty well founded and from rather well placed real world sources). What are the sources to your speculations and musings? Do you personally have relationships with many Metallurgists, Mining Engineers or Economic Geologist?
So to Sprott: IMO Sprott have seriously over egged the costs base ( when compared to what Oz minerals have achieved)
For example Spott allocate Aus $200m or US $100m for an underground conveyor decline system. That seems absolutely mental, frankly unless it includes significant other unspecified works (?).
My understanding is an underground vehicle decline would cost about US $20-30m (and maybe $40m in the case of havieron's poor ground) to build. This costing comes from an early Hannam report ( and that fact that that stage 1 mine at Oz minerals cost $600m all in)
Therefore I cannot see the conveyor costing more than another $10-15m and should be achievable for circa half the cost that Spott have indicated.
Look again at the Carapateena Costs. Consider closely the examples I have furnished..... This is an old Telegram Post I made 19/9/21; :
" What? $1.5bn build [net to GGP] costs my arse .? !!!! So Not invested James is saying on LSE minimum costs for Havieron Is $1.5bn from H&P. I haven’t checked It.. But i have looked at the costs for Carrapateena the best obvious comparison to HAV I can find… for AUS $915m they got a 435m deep duel declines, conveyor, a Sub level cave workings, the large processing plant, an airport, a new virgin 55km access road, accommodation village, and power station all for $650m rising to $916…. And the best part… that’s AUD yes oz Dollars not US. At the time
Check the PFS cost summary : https://www.openbriefing.com/AsxDownloa ... 799197.pdf
Sub level cave PFS full costs on Page 1 .. TOTAL COST capex of AUS$980 million "including contingency" ( so that's about US$500m ) And al this adds up give we have $370m build costs which include the road, decline, underground workings, and all related u/g crushing equipment and power utility /infrastructure...
Oz minerals got two declines built in the first wave of construction. IMO There is now way Oz minerals conveyor decline cost $200m (ie 20% of the total build out costs) given everything else they achieved for $900m AUS ... Further they did not go bankrupt...
THE difference between you and I Zoros is you may say 'miles out' .... from your corner shop armchair. But that's easy...
I say exactly how many miles out ( and which direction and why..). All backed up by real world examples.
Don't mean to get personal either but your Z logo is rather irritating too - ( it reminds me a lot of present Russian war insignia ).
In the end, Truth prevails...
-
speedymeadie
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- Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:48 am
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Hi Hydro. A very comprehensive post, glad we have you on board. ATB Speedy
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Hydrogen.
You responded to my initial post about me saying “ let’s leave it to the DFS” as any of our calcs are only guess work.
You responded by TELLING me it’s wasn’t guesswork.
I then set about discussing some areas where you are still’miles out’ (540moz vs 700+moz for example).
I have noticed That in most of your responses with posters who don’t agree with you, that you become Defensive, even aggressive (‘corner shop’ ‘my logo’ for instance).
I’ll leave you to think about that and the fact that you’ve been banned from two of the three forums mainly used by GGP followers.
In future it’s best you and I refrain from communicating on this site unless you wish to remain civil.
Z
You responded to my initial post about me saying “ let’s leave it to the DFS” as any of our calcs are only guess work.
You responded by TELLING me it’s wasn’t guesswork.
I then set about discussing some areas where you are still’miles out’ (540moz vs 700+moz for example).
I have noticed That in most of your responses with posters who don’t agree with you, that you become Defensive, even aggressive (‘corner shop’ ‘my logo’ for instance).
I’ll leave you to think about that and the fact that you’ve been banned from two of the three forums mainly used by GGP followers.
In future it’s best you and I refrain from communicating on this site unless you wish to remain civil.
Z
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Bamps, your 0941:
Sprott mentions a future 9Moz from the SLOS and 6.2Moz from bulk mining on the first page and elsewhere.
Z
Sprott mentions a future 9Moz from the SLOS and 6.2Moz from bulk mining on the first page and elsewhere.
Z
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Cheers Speedy.
Unfortunately Zoros completely ignoring your posts would require leaving the errors and omissions unchecked.
Not saying I'm always correct ( either ). But I try to openly provide evidence upon which I base 'direction of travel' conclusions.
And you're right Zoros. I do get irritated by disinformation. I have and will aways push back when I recognise deliberately manipulative posting or targeted discredit attacks. If you had any idea what hits my DM inbox mostly (blocked now) you would understand.
I will therefore keep doing what I do.
For avoidance of doubt... I was temporarily ' banned ', for suggesting "Stuart was in dreamland" if he couldn't accept shorts were controlling the SP..
And for irritating Liam, by posting macro related information which as we plan to produce gold seems bizarre. Macro is the biggest single factor beyond mine itself... But his forum his rules.
( Nitram's analysis just the previous day suggested they are 30% of the past 12months total GGP volume) ...
Probably says more about his ego than my posting... I have since declined the offer to rejoin TG as I won't be treated like that.
I also note since my account was removed from LSE, my and Costas principal critic, Sharky Bruce, has barely posted.
(and what was the subject of our narrative? You guessed it.)
Job done ? Coincidence? https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sharkybruce/
I see his 8p by 'next week' and 5p incoming predictions were equally accurate as my short squeeze, although the latter almost happened (which probably pissed them off terribly) Until JPM Asset management stepped above the parapet with that 18m sell.
Still as we patiently await at some point 70m plus will need to be bought back, which = as Costa puts it a 'circular firing squad'...
Who pulls the trigger first will be the last standing, that's obvious.
Unfortunately Zoros completely ignoring your posts would require leaving the errors and omissions unchecked.
Not saying I'm always correct ( either ). But I try to openly provide evidence upon which I base 'direction of travel' conclusions.
And you're right Zoros. I do get irritated by disinformation. I have and will aways push back when I recognise deliberately manipulative posting or targeted discredit attacks. If you had any idea what hits my DM inbox mostly (blocked now) you would understand.
I will therefore keep doing what I do.
For avoidance of doubt... I was temporarily ' banned ', for suggesting "Stuart was in dreamland" if he couldn't accept shorts were controlling the SP..
And for irritating Liam, by posting macro related information which as we plan to produce gold seems bizarre. Macro is the biggest single factor beyond mine itself... But his forum his rules.
( Nitram's analysis just the previous day suggested they are 30% of the past 12months total GGP volume) ...
Probably says more about his ego than my posting... I have since declined the offer to rejoin TG as I won't be treated like that.
I also note since my account was removed from LSE, my and Costas principal critic, Sharky Bruce, has barely posted.
(and what was the subject of our narrative? You guessed it.)
Job done ? Coincidence? https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sharkybruce/
I see his 8p by 'next week' and 5p incoming predictions were equally accurate as my short squeeze, although the latter almost happened (which probably pissed them off terribly) Until JPM Asset management stepped above the parapet with that 18m sell.
Still as we patiently await at some point 70m plus will need to be bought back, which = as Costa puts it a 'circular firing squad'...
Who pulls the trigger first will be the last standing, that's obvious.
In the end, Truth prevails...
-
HopefullyGold
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- Posts: 54
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:03 am
Re: Block Cave Cost Estimate - GGP 25% Share $207m
Hydrogen wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:43 pm Cheers Speedy.
For avoidance of doubt... I was temporarily ' banned ', for suggesting "Stuart was in dreamland" if he couldn't accept shorts were controlling the SP.
I also note since my account was removed from LSE, my and Costas principal critic, Sharky Bruce, has barely posted.
(and what was the subject of our narrative? You guessed it.)
H
Job done ? Coincidence? https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sharkybruce/
Hi Hydrogen, firstly let me say I'm glad I'm on a BB where I can read your views. I left LSE BB circa six months ago when it was clear to me that it was being targeted by "undesirables." In Hydro's defence listen to Paul Johnson of PMR at 39:45 for 1 minute and his opinion of "shorters"
https://www.ivoox.com/en/power-metal-re ... 726_1.html