Slowly slowly.......

[zoros]

catch a monkey:
6.5MozAuEq in the bag now, Next "news" that I hope will move the dial is the Newcrest MRE(2).
On June 30th they completed a years worth of drilling @ Hav: 90Km!!!
Mind blowing exploration programme costing an absolute fortune but reaping the benefits.
Assays will take 6+ weeks from this date which is why the results won't be known formally (and then promulgated) until the NCM MR and OR report in August.
NCM have a reputation for being very conservative, we've seen this with their purposeful absence of the GGP(MRE2) results and their PoG and PoCu figures.
IMO - we will see a conservative approach to an increasing MRE in the range of 8-9MozAuEq this August.
In December (DFS), I expect this to creep up inexorably towards 10MozAuEq.
These figures reflect what all the brokers have suggested from the outset (10Moz+) at calendar year end.[DFS].

How will this be reflected in the SP?

Brokers say: 26p.

Can the SP climb from 10p to 20p+ in just 6 short months?


20MozAuEq........It's in the runes for definite.
How long?
The decline will expedite drill assays for the ever expanding motherlode but we're looking a minimum of 2+ years.
Probably MRE(6+)! By then we'll be building 2 x block caves alongside the SLOS and looking at decades of successful mining @Hav.

Question is: will GGP still be along for the ride?
(AIMO).

Z

[Bamps21]

Hi Zoros
The NCM MRE2 can’t be much different from Ggp’s revised estimate of 6.5moz eq
Where will an extra 2-3m come from?
This MRE will be solely for a mining plan of 3m ton pa for a Feasibility Study.
This FS is for the SLOS mining plan not the bulk mining.
Question is will it be 3m or 3m+?
I’m expecting the next update in February in line with NCM’s calendar 10moz that’s a big ask.
SD was taking in the overall size of the ore body with his 20moz this doesn’t take in what can be mined.
2 x bulk caves is very early planning, that overhang of the Dyke will be causing headaches and may need to be a SLOS operation.

[strudel]

You cannot criticise the dyke. See it is a shapely sliver that threw NC a curve, or perhaps "slant" ball, all those years ago when they owned the tenement and went drilling.

If NC had drilled the start of a HAD005 rather than into our friend the dyke then we would not be in our rather comfy front row seats with GGP.

Infill drilling to flesh out the MRE update will let rip when the decline reaches the ore body, all of course unseen underground. I expect the 6.5 will gallop along nicely from then on.

It also crosses my mind that I ain't young enough to see the drill bit doing justice to all that we probably have .....

[CanisLycaon]

It also crosses my mind that I ain't young enough to see the drill bit doing justice to all that we probably have .....

Sadly, likely the same here strudel!

[zoros]

Bamps, morning.
The GGP MRE(2) only provided results up to December 15th deadline. The NCM MR and OR in august will have to report the following 6 months drilling to June 30th.
Surely that amount of drilling and results could produce another 1.5MozAuEq?
I’m aware the DFS will discuss the SLOS predominantly but they will also be making a decision to bill mine. There would need to be facts and figures for this in the FS too , I would expect.
Lots to come this year alone methinks.
Z

[Mremc2]

Callum Baxter 36:07 (1 st July 2022 interview)

"we could see another 50% increase in the resource estimate in the coming months"

Suggests to me that Callum has similar thoughts to those of Zoros.

[PickandShovel]

I am with Bamps on this one.

I think the way NC have played the PFS, delaying an MRE2 and tried a cheeky move on the 5%. They are only going to use the same drilling data that GGP used for our updated MRE.

Don't get me wrong I would love for them to increase the amount this year, however, I don't think they will and people should expect it to be very close to ours. As Rick Rule says, "if past is prologue" then NC won't be putting out a big number.

[zoros]

Pick and shovel - NCM can’t withhold results ( good or bad) from their shareholders.
If the assay results are in by august 8th they will be reported and if NCM chooses to produce a MRE(2) then all known results will be included.
Z

[PickandShovel]

Hi Zoros,

I am not suggesting they will withhold any drilling results, I am fairly confident that they will not include them in their update MRE. Especially if the vast majority of them are growth drilling and not infill.

[PickandShovel]

Zoros,

My wording was not clear in the last comment. I do not think that this years drilling will provide enough data for NC to add significant Oz to their MRE. It might provide some additional data to last years drills which could move some of GGPs MRE into indicated, however I do not think from a NC perspective that they have enough data in the growth drilling to substantially increase the MRE. So I think it will be very similar to GGP's in total but potentially more in the indicated.

I hope that makes sense.

Cheers P&S

[zoros]

Pickandshovel - I wouldn't disagree with you there.
Z

[_J_C_]

Pick and shovel - NCM can’t withhold results ( good or bad) from their shareholders.
If the assay results are in by august 8th they will be reported and if NCM chooses to produce a MRE(2) then all known results will be included.
Z

I wonder why Newcrest will not comment on base metal presence (such as Nickel) at Havieron, further to what Shaun has stated previously. If there is Nickel there, would that constitute withholding results?

I’ve emailed them numerous times and no response on this subject; They are normally decent regarding replying to queries.

[Bamps21]

Hi Zoros
If you look at what drilling has happened since Dec I would say that most of the infill drilling has finished but there are still a few cropping up here and there like in the last results there was one going down the back of the crescent.
The rest have been driven deep into the SE crescent and EB but also chasing high grade pods in the centre.
The Ggp MRE has included the SE deep and the EB also some in the central corridor.
The deep drills take months to drill and analyse and assay, they won’t be announced until this all complete. Some results will be way passed June 30.
There maybe a marginal increase and also some promotion of resources to reserves.
The next MRE maybe Feb should keep adding to resources and changes to reserves and again next August.
I hope I’m wrong and Callum’s 50% increase happens but might not be quite yet.

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

Will NCM will have to report unreported dills in the MRE - (as per the PFS) under TSX rules? - Needs checking.

[DipSard]

I think what zones are included in the updated Newcrest MRE and how they choose to calculate them compared to GGP's methodology in their MRE are going to be the more interesting areas of interest to then see what updated numbers Newcrest come up with

[CanisLycaon]

I think what zones are included in the updated Newcrest MRE and how they choose to calculate them compared to GGP's methodology in their MRE are going to be the more interesting areas of interest to then see what updated numbers Newcrest come up with

EXACTLY Dip! This is highly relevant! It's also another reason I'm not getting over excited about the numbers coming up! We all know where this is going, medium/long term, but I'm basing my expectations on what we've had to date from Newcrest, namely the very basic minimum permitted under JORC, IMHO!

If you're expecting anything different, IMHO you're wrong.

That all said, medium/long term this is, IMHO, a no brainer investment!

[Mremc2]

February is a long way off. Callum said next few months (wink wink see my screensaver). What if SD is up for another MRE given the amount of drilling and spectacular results, how long did his MRE2 take to produce?

[DipSard]

February is a long way off. Callum said next few months (wink wink see my screensaver). What if SD is up for another MRE given the amount of drilling and spectacular results, how long did his MRE2 take to produce?

Our team will be constantly reviewing the data too as it comes in, both with Newcrest colleagues and in isolation, can't see why they couldn't follow up an NCM update fairly soon as they are working with the same data at the same time constantly although using different methodology and metrics in some extent in their own modelling.
GGP could use the reasoning again that it is to assist funding etc. but as a 'material update' they are obliged to make public to shareholders.
I do hope we have no need to do this, constantly publishing our own MRE's will indicate a worsening relationship - not the best outcome for us if looking for a multi decade production partnership - and more indicative of us getting bought out probably. Better to try and push the boundaries in conjunction with jointly published updates IMO.

[Telbap]

With regards to MRE2 update from NCM on the 18/08, I hope they choose areas we did t as it only means grater volumes / values for us all later :/) Only time will tell us what we really have on our hands!