Decline Progress

[Masham Ale]

I don't seem to be able to reply to the reference thread so have raised the point here.
Thanks RA for the data but looking at past metres per shift graph, the worst projection line at 3m per shift looks quite optomistic.
Even 1m per shift might seem hopeful.
What are you basing the 3m, 4m, 5m per shift progress lines on please?

[Spondy]

MA, I can't reply to that topic either.

These are the decline numbers I've collated, their source and my approximation of metres per week. Some might have been copied from another post somewhere, possibly on LSE, incase you recognise them!

Decline advanced over 120m between commencing on 14/05/21 and GGP report on 09/09/21

211m on 20/10/21 (GGP report)

237m on 24/11/21 (NCM report) advanced approximately 26m in 5 weeks, 5 metres per week

245m on 01/12/21 (GGP report) advanced approximately 8m in 1 week, 8 metres per week

277m on 21/01/22 (GGP report) advanced approximately 32m in 7 weeks, 5 metres per week

296m on 25/02/22 (GGP report) advanced approximately 19m in 5 weeks, 4 metres per week

313m on 20/04/22 (NCM report) advanced approximately 17m in 8 weeks, 2 metres per week

377.5m on 31/05/22 (GGP RNS) advanced approximately 64m in 6 weeks, 11 metres per week

489m on 13/07/22 (GGP RNS) advanced approximately 111m in 7 weeks, 16 metres per week

RA, The blue line appears to touch or pass the 500 metres, do you have a data point later than 13th July 2022?

Your graph shows a target line at about 2750 metres. Is that the length of the spiral to get to the top of the orebody rather than a depth below ground level.

[RationalAssessor]

Hi Spondy

We agree on all data points except the last. Not sure where I got it from, however, I have a data point of 520M in the week of 29 Jul.
As far as the final depth and length, I have been working off the original statments that Hav is under 800M of cover and the decline would be 1 in 7. Hence a decline length of 2800. However, I have since been corrected on TG that decline length is more likely 2500M. Byrnecut themselves say that decline is 2600 on their website.

Will further update once we get more data - it's clearly not an exact science but, at the mo, folks (FUDsters) are saying that the reassessment by NCM on the decline progress means that they are going to push back further from 2nd Half 2024. The graph was meant to show that the reassessment was more likely to pull the decline completion forward into 1st Half 2024 (ie Jul ro Dec 2023).

ATB RA.

[RationalAssessor]

Hi Masham Ale

Yep, 3M per shift does look optomistic based upon previous performance. However, we should now be through the permian layer and using explosives to blast our way through rock which delivers better results. I'm also advised by those in the know that 3M should be achievable, 4M is possible.
We'll get a much better indicator in a couple of weeks with the drilling results so will reassess and repost the graphs then.

ATB RA

[Masham Ale]

What do you think it costs per day making the decline?

[Bamps21]

One of these roadheaders was being touted around earlier on but the soft stuff meant it wouldn’t be viable.
If one of these does come in, 4 metres will be a piece of cake, only time it will stop is for the shot blasting .
More chance of having a computerised guidance system on board than the method being used at the moment.

Most of you won’t realise how difficult it is to guide these declines in the right direction it takes time especially on a spiral curve, not many engineers that I’ve met know how to set a spiral shape out especially down hill.

Computerised equipment will speed things up.
Remember accuracy is the key here , there’s shafts to meet up with

[Acechaser]

Bamps is that the machine they are using.

[Bamps21]

Hi Acechaser
Not at the moment

[Acechaser]

Well methinks we need one of dem big boys.

[speedymeadie]

Hi Bamps. That m/c looks like a double tailed diplodocus. ATB Speedy

[Francis]

An engineer told me before he died, ah-hum…

[Bamps21]

Hi Francis
Can you explain your remark or are you having a dig

[Masham Ale]

Hi Francis
Can you explain your remark or are you having a dig

I think it's just a reference to a song