Soft landing...? You must be Fu*king joking, right?

[Hydrogen]

Get ready for some insanity...

2 Weeks Ago: Consensus = "Soft-landing", 1 rate hike left then 2 cuts …
Now: Consensus = No-landing, ~4 rate hikes, 0 Cuts, a potential 50bps hike in March and whispers of a 6% Terminal Rate

The FED funds rate is now heading for... 6% according to analysts. That's fully nosebleed terrifying territory.. And The FED loses all trust / credibility.

And the US treasury must be getting close to bankruptcy. Remember, the Fed's Job is really to make the Treasury look solvent.

BUT if you think 'inflation is transitory narrative' is authentic... Think again. The charts tell you it's visually still trending up..... 3 years post covid

Switch this amazing chart https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m1 to the monthly and take gander at these trends:

Almost everything you see re commodities is still trending up up up.... on a monthly basis since 2020/2019
Most, if not ALL commodity lines: from orange juice to oil are 50-200% higher.
(Nat Gas, gold and lumber the notable exceptions) .
They are nearly all 'orders of magnitude'.... like 50% to 200% up since 2020

NOW - 2019 UD federal Budget: Debt was the #4 biggest line item:

Healthcare: $1,240bn
Pensions: $1,100bn
Defense: $940bn
Debt Service: $580bn
Welfare: $370bn
Education: $150bn
NASA: $22bn

At 4% interest, ie TODAY the US debt cost grows to 22% of the planned federal budget
Ie #3 biggest line item

Healthcare: $1,640bn
Pensions: $1,370bn
Debt Service: $1,250bn
Defense: $1,170bn
Welfare: $510bn
Education: $240bn
NASA: $26bn

BUT in 2023/4 at ..... 6% Fed Funds RATE interest becomes over 30% of the TOTAL Fed budget:

Debt Service: $1,8bn
Healthcare: $1,640bn
Pensions: $1,370bn
Defense: $1,170bn
Welfare: $510bn
Education: $240bn
NASA: $26bn

So at 6% something has to go .... ie that means no military or $1.2 Trillion of other stuff... This just melts my swede... The US is bankrupt. And presumably Putin knows it...?

Rates up 4x. Debt up by half. Debt service up by 6x !

Now look at US treasury notes, vs global currencies .. ALL TRENDING down except USD$ an Swiss Franc

So in a nutshell: everything we buy, back in the real world, as apposed to the Federal reserve's "inflation is transitory" BS SPIN costs 50% to 100% more, with money that's worth 20-30% less. Inflation adjusted for currencies is > 30% plus annually...

AND there you have it the US plan is to "inflate the debt away ". They just can't say it like that - they can't tell you the truth because its stinks so bad.

Nor can they do anything meaningful about sticky inflation. NOT Without raising interest rates to 10% ... so they just keep moving the goal posts around.

Next they'll change the way they report inflation... Oh wait...?

Fucking total madness

Got gold...?

[Hydrogen]

Not just my thinking...

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/a- ... ly-engaged


A "Debt Doom Loop" Is Now Fully Engaged
"Rivets are popping. We have seen this movie before. The Fed tightens, things break, the Fed reacts by opening the monetary flood gates and the cycle begins all over again."

[FuttBucker]

On the one hand, hooray for (holding) gold!

On the other hand, it's a bit scary!

[Hydrogen]

Bang on the money once again...

So unlike the Nasdaq and the B17 above, Gold was today bouncing off the low end of the risk range… 1830 - 1917 making a big higher low - before it takes off again -

All because the T10 yield is hitting, well smashing into the top of its risk range, at 3.91%.

This will revert in due course as the long end of the bond curve starts to go down, with the shorter end (2Y yield) still rising, thus increasingly inverting the yield curve from its current bone chilling 80odd basis point inversion.

The CNBC / twitter narrative will be adjusted accordingly. Now to the “consumer is in trouble” and following that "the recession is priced in".

Meanwhile Gold go up….

And today was a massive buying opportunity ( as you will have noticed the large trades in GGP at the end of play ) where Ned Naylor Leyland's Jupiter Gold and Silver is finally steaming into GGP ... better watch out shorty pants at Fintec. Ned will have your cheap stock no problems.

And IF you didn't know what just happed in the main markets this past week or two Hold tight ... This massive January bounce - the 12% bear market rally in US stocks - Tesla / Nasdaq bear Poop basket and Cathy Wood Ark Innovation profitless tech stocks from the January lows to last week high was another gargantuan example of market manipulation of the finest order, perpetrated I'm reliably told by 3 principal brokers: Citadel, Goldman and Susquehanna.

(So it's not just GGP ... these friggin Bar stewards can move entire indices on low enough volume).

How...? By buying billions, and I mean billions of US$ dollars in 0TDEs options - ie Zero Days to Expiry Options. Its all over Bloomberg Terminal if you know where to look... Some days 50-60% of the entire S&P 500 and Nasdaq volume were these stinky 7 hours to expiry options, being used to chase / manipulate market higher by targeting a particular price point..

Literally all time records were broken for Options buying in the past few weeks... most call options sold ever - up to 500,000 per day.... And 'all time' or 'ever' is a very long time... Why? - well at the same time as making money, and justifying the fake "Fed Pivot Narrative".... it's purely designed to suck in American retail FOMO buying, for the Wall Street to sell - well DUMP - into at a higher price point this week...

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/sta ... 7295223810

Oil and commodities will crash now... Gold however is not a commodity. As Putin reliable told us today... it's currency.

Looks like the CIA guy was right, about the gold backed Yuan 18 months ago...

[Lambinator]

Well said / put together Hydro.

I’m sure like many others, this ‘slow car crash’ is getting boring waiting for it to happen. Lets just get to the smash and be over n done with it!

Right back to watching paint dry

[Shady69]

I'm not saying I even understand all that but man you write some great stuff Hydrogen and seriously over the last 3 years you've kept the excitement in this share for me while this SP has took a hammering.
Thanks for your endless research.
ATB
In the end truth will prevail as you keep saying.